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Will the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence break the climate system? In recent months, utilities and tech companies have argued that soaring use of AI will overwhelm electricity markets. Is that true — or is it a sales pitch meant to build more gas plants? And how much electricity do data centers and AI use today?
In this week’s episode, Rob and Jesse talk to Jonathan Koomey, an independent researcher, lecturer, and entrepreneur who studies the energy impacts of the internet and information technology. We discuss why AI may not break the electricity system and the long history of anxiety over computing’s energy use. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a Princeton professor of energy systems engineering.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Before we go any further — and I think you just hinted at your answer, here, but I want to tackle it directly — which is that I think people look at the hockey stick graphs for AI use, and they look at current energy use for AI, and they look at load growth data coming from the utilities, and they go, “Oh my gosh, AI is going to absolutely overrun our energy system. It’s going to cause emissions to shoot up,” because again, this is just extrapolating from what’s recent.
But of course, part of the whole AI mythos is like, once it starts, you can’t stop it. There is a story out there that, frankly, you see as much from folks who are worried about the climate as you do from AI boosters, which is that very soon, we'’e going to be using a huge amount of energy on AI. And I want to ask you this directly: Should we be worried about AI, number one, overrunning the energy system? Or number two, AI causing a massive spike in carbon emissions that dooms us to, let's say, pass 2.5C that uses up the rest of our carbon budget? Is that something you're worried about? And just how do you think about this?
Jonathan Koomey: Everyone needs to calm the heck down. So we talked about the original baseline, right? So the baseline, data centers are 1% of the world's electricity. And maybe AI now is 0.1%, right? For Google, it’s 0.15%, whatever. But 10% of the 1% is AI.
So let’s say that doubles — let’s say that triples in the next few years, or even goes up fivefold. That gets to about half a percent. So I think it will pale in comparison to the other growth drivers that Jesse was talking about in electrification. Because if you think about light vehicles, if you electrified all light vehicles in the U.S., that’s like a 20% or 25% increase in electricity consumption. And if you did that over 20 years, that’s like 1-ish% per year. Right? So that's, that to me is a very credible thing that’s likely to happen. And then when you add heat pumps, you add industrial electrification, a lot more.
I think there will be local impacts. There will be some places where AI and data centers more generally will be important and will drive load growth, but it is not a national story. It is a local story. And so a place like Ireland that has, I think at last count 17%, 18% of its load from data centers, if that grows, that could give them real challenges. Same thing, Loudoun County in Virginia. But you really do have to separate the national story or the global story from the local story.
Jesse Jenkins: I think it was just about a week ago, Nvidia which is the leading producer of the graphics processing units that have become now the main workhorse chips for generative AI computing, they released their new best-in-class chip. And as they revealed that chip, they — for the first time, it sounded like — started to emphasize the energy efficiency improvements of the GPU. And the basic story the CEO told is that it would take about 73% less electricity and a shorter period of time to train AIs on this new chip than it did on their previous best-in-class chip. So that’s just one generation of GPU with nearly three-quarters reduction in the amount of energy consumed per ... I don't know how you measure the units of large language model training, but per smarts trained into generative AI. So yeah, huge gains.
And one might say, well, can that continue forever? And I guess we should maybe get your thoughts on that. But it has continued at least for the last 10 to 20 years. And so there’s a lot of reason to believe that there’s continued gains to be made.
Koomey: Most people, when they think of efficiency, they think of Moore’s Law. They think of shrinking transistors. And anyone who follows this knows that every year or two, there’s another article about how Moore’s Law is ending, or slowing, or you know, it’s getting harder. And there’s no question about it, it’s absolutely getting harder and harder to shrink the transistors. But it turns out shrinking transistors is only one way to improve efficiency and performance. For a long time, the industry relied on that.
From the early days of microprocessors, starting in ’71, over time, they would ramp up the clock speed. And at the same time, they would ramp down the voltage of the chip. And that was called Dennard scaling. It allowed them to keep ramping up performance without getting to crazy levels of leakage current and heat and melting the chip and the whole thing. That worked for a long time, til the early 2000s. And then they hit the threshold voltage for silicon, which is like one volt. So once you hit that, you can no longer do that trick. And they needed new tricks.
So what they did was they, most of you remember who were around at that time, there was this big shift to multiple cores on a chip. That was an innovation in hardware architecture that allowed them, for a time, to improve efficiency by going to software that could run on multiple cores, so you could multiprocess various activities. So that’s one way you can improve things. You can also work on the software — you can improve the efficiency of the software, you can improve the algorithms that you use.
So even if Moore's law shrinkage of transistors stops, which it hasn’t fully stopped. But even if it did, there are a lot of other things we can do. And AI in particular is relatively new. Basically, people threw a whole bunch of money at existing processors because there was this rush to deploy technology. But now, everyone’s stepping back and saying, well, look at the cost of the energy cost and the infrastructure cost. Is there a way to do this better? And sure, there definitely is, and Nvidia proved it in their presentation that you referred to.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…
KORE Power provides the commercial, industrial, and utility markets with functional solutions that advance the clean energy transition worldwide. KORE Power's technology and manufacturing capabilities provide direct access to next generation battery cells, energy storage systems that scale to grid+, EV power & infrastructure, and intuitive asset management to unlock energy strategies across a myriad of applications. Explore more at korepower.com.
Watershed's climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.
A conversation with J. Timmons Roberts, executive director of Brown University’s Climate Social Science Network
This week’s interview is with Brown University professor J. Timmons Roberts. Those of you familiar with the fight over offshore wind may not know Roberts by name, but you’re definitely familiar with his work: He and his students have spearheaded some of the most impactful research conducted on anti-offshore wind opposition networks. This work is a must-read for anyone who wants to best understand how the anti-renewables movement functions and why it may be difficult to stop it from winning out.
So with Trump 2.0 on the verge of banning offshore wind outright, I decided to ask Roberts what he thinks developers should be paying attention to at this moment. The following interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
Is the anti-renewables movement a political force the country needs to reckon with?
Absolutely. In my opinion it’s been unfortunate for the environmental groups, the wind development, the government officials, climate scientists – they’ve been unwilling to engage directly with those groups. They want to keep a very positive message talking about the great things that come with wind and solar. And they’ve really left the field open as a result.
I think that as these claims sit there unrefuted and naive people – I don’t mean naive in a negative sense but people who don’t know much about this issue – are only hearing the negative spin about renewables. It’s a big problem.
When you say renewables developers aren’t interacting here – are you telling me the wind industry is just letting these people run roughshod?
I’ve seen no direct refutation in those anti-wind Facebook groups, and there’s very few environmentalists or others. People are quite afraid to go in there.
But even just generally. This vast network you’ve tracked – have you seen a similar kind of counter mobilization on the part of those who want to build these wind farms offshore?
There’s some mobilization. There’s something called the New England for Offshore Wind coalition. There’s some university programs. There’s some other oceanographic groups, things like that.
My observation is that they’re mostly staff organizations and they’re very cautious. They’re trying to work as a coalition. And they’re going as slow as their most cautious member.
As someone who has researched these networks, what are you watching for in the coming year? Under the first year of Trump 2.0?
Yeah I mean, channeling my optimistic and Midwestern dad, my thought is that there may be an overstepping by the Trump administration and by some of these activists. The lack of viable alternative pathways forward and almost anti-climate approaches these groups are now a part of can backfire for them. Folks may say, why would I want to be supportive of your group if you’re basically undermining everything I believe in?
What do you think developers should know about the research you have done into these networks?
I think it's important for deciding bodies and the public, the media and so on, to know who they’re hearing when they hear voices at a public hearing or in a congressional field hearing. Who are the people representing? Whose voice are they advancing?
It’s important for these actors that want to advance action on climate change and renewables to know what strategies and the tactics are being used and also know about the connections.
One of the things you pointed out in your research is that, yes, there are dark money groups involved in this movement and there are outside figures involved, but a lot of this sometimes is just one person posts something to the internet and then another person posts something to the internet.
Does that make things harder when it comes to addressing the anti-renewables movement?
Absolutely. Social media’s really been devastating for developing science and informed, rational public policymaking. It’s so easy to create a conspiracy and false information and very slanted, partial information to shoot holes at something as big as getting us off of fossil fuels.
Our position has developed as we understand that indeed these are not just astro-turf groups created by some far away corporation but there are legitimate concerns – like fishing, where most of it is based on certainty – and then there are these sensationalized claims that drive fears. That fear is real. And it’s unfortunate.
Anything else you’d really like to tell our readers?
I didn’t really choose this topic. I feel like it really got me. It was me and four students sitting in my conference room down the hall and I said, have you heard about this group that just started here in Rhode Island that’s making these claims we should investigate? And students were super excited about it and have really been the leaders.