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Generate Capital’s Jonah Goldman makes his case.

The Inflation Reduction Act sparked a predictable surge in clean energy-related investments from the law’s signing in 2022 through the 2024 election, before President Trump’s second term ushered in an era of cancellations, closures, and downsizing. Of the domestic projects announced since the IRA’s passage, a total of 35 have been nixed or scaled back so far this year — more than in all of 2023 and 2024 combined, according to estimates from the environmental advocacy organization E2. This accounts for over $22 billion in lost investment and 16,500 in lost jobs.
“There’s a drastic decrease in the amount of new [clean energy] investments,” E2’s Michael Timberlake told me. After the IRA’s passage, he explained, nearly every month saw over a billion dollars invested in new clean energy projects. But since December of last year, monthly investment has come in below a billion dollars more often than not.
Domestic electric vehicle and battery manufacturing projects have been hit the hardest, as these sectors are staring down a federal bureaucracy clearly hostile to their tech on the one hand and Chinese competitors that are already leagues ahead of them on the other. But there is a bright spot: E2’s data shows that the grim outlook for clean energy projects is largely confined to the manufacturing sector. Many large-scale energy generation projects might actually, maybe, be mostly okay.
That’s what Jonah Goldman of the infrastructure investment firm Generate Capital is banking on. As electricity demand rises for the first time in over a decade, the need to deploy cost-competitive grid energy is only increasing. Thus, Goldman sees plenty of reason to continue investing in a renewables buildout — solar especially, which can often be deployed more quickly, flexibly, and economically than any other form of generation, politics aside.
“What is not a question really anymore is whether these projects are going to get built,” Goldman told me. “There’s just not another option. Even if you think of doubling our investment in gas generation, you still don’t get to this incredible increase in power demand that we need in order to reach the projections that we’re getting.”
Taking a closer look at the post-IRA projects that have been either canceled or scaled back shows that solar is indeed the most resilient investment of the bunch. Since the IRA’s passage, about 12% of announced solar projects have been canceled or downsized, compared to 25% of wind projects, 19% of EV projects, and 34% of EV battery projects. Only three of the 35 projects hit this year were related to solar, and only one of those was for solar generation.
Despite the overall dour domestic investment outlook, Timberlake thus agrees with Goldman that solar in particular isn’t grinding to a halt anytime soon. The market signal for clean energy, Timberlake said, is “indisputable.” The buildout might happen more slowly than it otherwise would have, as the administration continues to unspool regulatory red tape for these projects, but it’ll happen.
And, of course, it will get more expensive. Because while Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill maintains investment and production tax credits for most clean energy technologies through 2033, it cuts credits for solar and wind projects that either start construction after July 2026, or, if they haven’t started by then, are placed in service after 2027.
While Goldman hates what that will do to electricity prices, he doesn’t seem too worried about it hurting Generate’s ability to invest. For the moment, he told me, this timeline leaves the firm with a strong pipeline of opportunities not only in solar, but also in other categories like battery energy storage, geothermal, and sustainable fuels that have largely retained their IRA incentives. “You’re still talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of available investments that don’t wear that risk at all,” he said.
In fact, there are also already so many renewables projects under construction or set to begin soon that “we’ve got more investable opportunities than we have capital to invest,” Goldman explained. Rather than a lull, the tax credit cutoff date is now creating an incentive for investors to throw their support behind projects that appear poised to meet the deadlines.
That won’t last forever. After the credits phase out, investment could certainly dip, Goldman said, “until either those incentives are restored — which they still could be — or the market figures out how to effectively price those projects without that incentive.” Because tax-credit eligible projects that began construction prior to July 2026 will still be coming online for the next few years, Goldman predicts the lull could start around 2029.
He’s not convinced the incentives are gone for good, though. Solar and wind tax credits have suffered through many periods of uncertainty during their decades-long history, always ultimately enduring. And while the industry shouldn’t bank on a mid-term congressional shakeup laying the groundwork for a credit extension, it’s always a possibility — especially given looming electricity price hikes. That could rile up voters enough to begin chipping away at the partisan divides that have formed around clean energy, fossil fuels, and how the heck to power all of these AI data centers.
“We’re no longer talking about a political issue, despite the fact that they made this a political issue.” Goldman told me. “What we need is more electrons on the grid for as affordable a price as possible. And some of those will be generated from gas, and some of those will be generated from renewables.”
The U.S. is also not the only place for infrastructure investors to make money. While domestic clean energy investment may be down, the first half of 2025 saw global private infrastructure funding increase significantly compared with the prior two years. Data center and renewables-focused funds drove the trend, making up 45% and 36% of total investment raised, respectively. The “power and transmission” sector — which includes fossil fuel-fired generation — comprised a mere 12%.
But given that climate funds from all corners of the globe do primarily invest in the U.S., this certainly points to a sustained interest in building domestic clean energy infrastructure. Or, as Goldman put it, “the fundamentals of the market are complicated but only pointing in one direction — a deep thirst for quick, buildable power. And there’s only certain technologies that can fill that deep thirst.”
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The announcement follows a Series A round that included investment from the Department of Defense.
The U.S. wants to make more of its own rare-earth magnets, which are critical to everything from guided missiles to aerospace systems and electric vehicle motors. But doing so will require a domestic source of high-purity iron, the main material in these magnets and one the U.S. imports almost entirely from China. Hertha Metals is betting it can fill that gap while helping decarbonize the ironmaking process, too. After raising a more than $133 million Series A, which the company announced last week, the Texas-based startup is promising to supply domestic magnet and steel manufacturers with 10,000 metric tons per year of lower-carbon, high-purity iron. That will come from its first commercial facility near Houston, where the company broke ground on Thursday.
Steel customers, including automakers and other equipment manufacturers, have already expressed interest in Hertha’s tech. But the startup’s most important customer might be the federal government. Defense manufacturers depend on rare-earth magnets — which require 99.95% high-purity iron — for things like aerospace platforms and radar systems. That explains why the Department of Defense invested $65 million in Hertha’s Series A through its Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program. The investment comes in partnership with the Economic Defense Unit, a new Pentagon division established under Trump that makes grants, loans, equity investments and purchase commitments into defense and dual-use sectors like critical minerals.
Hertha’s CEO and founder Laureen Meroueh called the new facility — sited next to its operational demonstration plant — the nation’s “first domestic iron and steel innovation complex” when I spoke with her in April to learn more about the company’s technology. She expects the plant to be operational by the end of next year.
That’s thanks to a new proprietary process that Meroueh, a mechanical engineer and materials scientist by training, pioneered. “We find ourselves in the year of 2026 making steel out of the same furnace that was developed in 1850. That’s insanity,” Meroueh told me. Today, most iron is produced by stripping oxygen from ore in a furnace that operates at over 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Called a blast furnace, this towering steel-and-brick shaft is fueled by coke made from metallurgical coal. The resulting molten iron then enters a basic oxygen furnace, where it’s refined into steel. Producing the higher-purity iron needed for rare earth magnets requires additional refining steps to remove impurities.
While lower-emissions alternatives do exist, they come with their own limitations. Direct iron reduction, for example, uses hot gas to strip oxygen from ore, then melts the resulting solid iron in an electric arc furnace. But the process typically requires higher-grade ores to begin with, and thus remains a small share of global production. Electric arc furnaces can also recycle steel scrap — indeed most domestic steel is produced this way — but supply is finite. Meanwhile, ore quality is decreasing over time, limiting the grades of steel it can ultimately produce.
Enter Hertha, which says it can turn low-grade iron ores into high-purity iron in a single furnace. Meroueh explained that Hertha uses either natural gas or hydrogen to strip oxygen from molten ore in an electric arc furnace, with no separate reduction step beforehand. Because the furnace melts down the ore and its impurities from the outset, it can accept low-grade ore in many forms, including fines, the powdery particles left over from mining and processing. When everything is molten, the lighter impurities separate from the denser iron and form a layer of slag that operators can then drain from the furnace. The resulting iron needs only minimal additional refining to go into rare earth magnets.
“This is a continuous reactor, so you continuously feed it and semi-continuously tap out your slag and product,” Meroueh explained. Melting iron made from ore produces far more slag than standard electric arc furnaces are designed to handle, and would thus require frequent interruptions in operations. But Hertha’s proprietary process doesn’t need to do that. “This continuity in operations is what makes it economically viable for us to generate large amounts of slag while maintaining production and throughput.”
The startup also says it can make steel using the same process by adding a controlled amount of carbon to its single furnace. While Hertha hasn’t provided an estimate of avoided emissions for this plant specifically, it says a third-party modeler has projected that its subsequent 500,000-metric-ton facility will emit up to 50% less than conventional blast furnace steel production when running on natural gas, and 98% less when running on green hydrogen.
Hertha also expects its process will cut costs by 25% compared with blast furnaces, and says its system can make full-cycle steel plants as small as 500,000 metric tons per year economically viable. Most steel mills that use a blast furnace to convert raw materials into finished steel produce 3 million metric tons or more annually, making this future plant the size of a so-called “mini mill,” which recycles scrap metal in an electric arc furnace rather than starting with the iron ore.
The 10,000-metric-ton facility the company is currently building will start by running on natural gas, which is still far cheaper than green hydrogen. But Meroueh told me that once green hydrogen falls below $5 a kilogram — and ideally below $3 — she expects it will make economic sense for Hertha to start blending hydrogen with natural gas, potentially in the early 2030s.
Outside the U.S., Hertha could reach ultra-low carbon production even sooner. “So with the really attractive renewable power prices in the Middle East, it makes it a lot more digestible to produce green hydrogen,” Meroueh told me in April. “And the best use case of that green hydrogen is to make steel. Moving hydrogen around in pipelines, not attractive. Converting it to ammonia and then back to hydrogen is not very attractive. Just make the steel right there.”
Hint: It’s one that tends to align with utilities.
Building trades want to build.
This desire for more and better big projects has meant that unions representing construction workers, utility linemen, operating engineers, plumbers, pipefitters, and so on have spent past decade-plus ping-ponging between praise and exasperation toward major Democratic priorities, especially when it comes to climate and energy policy.
Now, with a permitting bill negotiated by two Democrats and two Republicans in the Senate, much of the hardhat union sector is signing on as eager supporters. If the rest of the Democratic coalition can sign on to the bill, it may go some way to repairing a breach that has been widening since the Obama administration.
The modern fight over U.S. energy infrastructure began with a Canadian pipeline project.
Building trades were some of the most fervent advocates for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have brought oil from the tar sands of Canada’s Alberta province into the continental United States — a project that Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden both opposed and which the latter finally canceled in 2021.
In the interim, the first Trump administration tested these unions’ historic allegiance with Democrats as the left became more vocal on climate policy. After Senator Ed Markey and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez released their Green New Deal outline in 2019, the AFL-CIO sent the two progressives a letter saying their plan “makes promises that are not achievable or realistic.” The signatories also included the United Mine Workers, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and eight more building trades, hardhat unions and federations that would be threatened by a rapid transition to 100% renewable energy. The signatory unions represented a little under 3 million of the AFL-CIO’s then roughly 12.5 million members.
“The broad trajectory is that the building trades unions have been supportive of building pretty much anything, whether it’s fossil, whether it’s data centers, whether it’s clean energy,” Todd Tucker, director of the industrial policy and trade program at the Roosevelt Institute, told me.
Actual Democratic policymaking turned out to be more favorable to unions, with infrastructure spending, money for domestic manufacturing, prevailing wage requirements, and subsidies for nuclear power and carbon capture all spurring infrastructure work during the Biden years. North America’s Building Trades Unions described the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law as the “single greatest infrastructure investment in our nation’s history,” while the Laborers’ International Union of North America, a.k.a. LIUNA, praised the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act for “taking a commonsense approach to our energy needs.”
Now, it’s environmental groups that are either opposed to or mum on a piece of infrastructure legislation — the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act — while most of the building trades support it.
The United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the United States and Canada, otherwise known as the UA, signed the anti-Green New Deal letter and had a project labor agreement with the developer of the Keystone XL pipeline, but came out in support of the permitting deal. So did LIUNA and the International Union of Operating Engineers.
“In our industry, uncertainty means one thing: unemployment,” UA General President Mark McManus said in a statement. “It is long past time that Congress enacts meaningful permitting reform to put UA members to work faster.”
LIUNA’s president Brent Booker described BAAJA in a statement as a “monumental bipartisan permitting reform bill,” and urged “lawmakers in both parties to seize this moment, pass the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, and finally deliver meaningful permitting reform.”
John Downey, the president of the Operating Engineers union, which signed a letter imploring the Biden-Harris transition team to maintain the Keystone pipeline’s permits, said in a statement that the union “applauds the bipartisan effort” on BAAJA, and that the “Operating Engineers look forward to working with Congress to pass this critical bipartisan bill.” Other Keystone XL supporters including the National Association of Manufacturers and the Chamber of Commerce have also come out in support of BAAJA.
There are a few industry and union players, however, that have been notably more circumspect: groups representing utilities and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.
The Edison Electric Institute, the trade group for investor-owned utilities, has in the past supported overhauling the National Environmental Policy Act and Clean Water Act, which the bill would do. The group’s chief executive, Drew Maloney, told reporters after the release of the bill text that it was “encouraged” by the permitting provisions in BAAJA and was “reviewing” the transmission provisions.
The transmission provisions are largely seen as hostile to incumbent utilities. Many in Washington — especially Republicans — see them as a sign of decreasing utility clout. The bill would encourage and enable greater state and federal oversight of utilities’ infrastructure buildouts and would restrict the utilities’ “right of first refusal” on building new transmission lines. Many ratepayer advocates argue that these projects do more to build out the utility rate base than to increase grid reliability
This stance — supportive of permitting reforms, wary of grid provisions — puts utilities in a kind of mirror image with big environmental groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council, which is friendly to the transmission portions of the bill but skeptical of the permitting portions.
Senator Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican and himself a former utility regulator, warned utilities to “not get carried away” in trying to push for changes to the deal, Punchbowl News reported.
“What I’m really watching these days around the Senate BAAJA bill is where does the IBEW end up,” Tucker told me.
An IBEW spokesperson told me the union is “reviewing the language and holding discussions with stakeholders across our industries. We represent workers across affected industries (utilities, transmission, construction, etc.), so the details are very important.”
The IBEW has just over 900,000 members, including construction electricians, utility linemen, technicians, and operators, with particularly strong representation within utilities. The union also has special political influence due to its large and widespread membership — anywhere there’s a power line, there’s likely one of the IBEW’s more than 800 locals.
Utility watchdogs like David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, are not surprised to see utilities and the IBEW taking similar (non-)stances toward the bill.
He told me the IBEW is a particularly potent force on issues affecting utilities because “they’re a more acceptable face to the Democratic electorate,” referring to their lobbying in blue states and of Democratic politicians. “Among Democrats, the IBEW right now is much more palatable than the utilities.” The IBEW has been a counterweight to the Democrats’ and the public’s increasingly harsh turn against data centers, for instance, opposing moratoria in New England, the Mountain West, New York, and the Kansas City area.
The IBEW has also weighed in on more fine-grained utility policy, including right-of-first-refusal, well before the release of BAAJA. A union policy brief describes these as policies that “prioritize unionized utilities for critical projects, safeguarding labor standards and ensuring safe and efficient energy infrastructure development.” In Illinois, an IBEW local intervened in a rate case to oppose a proposed cut in the return on equity for local utility ComEd.
But the IBEW has also won project labor agreements for the type of long distance, high-voltage transmission projects that many climate and clean energy advocates hope the bill encourages.
“Some of their members work for the utilities and the utilities are getting rolled by this legislation, but some of the members work in construction and building,” Tucker told me.
The question going forward for the union, he said, is “do you align your union strategy with the current business model of your current employers? Or do you make a bet that these new jobs that are getting created and new builds are going to net out positive?”
On Indonesia’s climate win, hacking renewables, and John Cena’s ad
Current conditions: A tropical rainstorm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, likely strengthening into what would become Tropical Storm Isaias, is poised to dump rain on the southeastern United States and may become the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the year • Italy is bracing for a type of heavy rainstorm known as a nubifragio, set to soak Naples and Rome later this week • The Dome Fire in Yosemite National Park has burned about 7,000 acres, and officials determined it was sparked by humans.
If you can’t wait a decade or more for a new Westinghouse AP1000 or one of the small modular reactors under development, your best bet to get more nuclear electricity is probably to upgrade an existing reactor to squeeze more power out of it, a process known as “uprating.” In February, the Department of Energy gave out its largest-ever loan to Southern Company to fund up to 6 gigawatts of uprates across the utility’s nuclear fleet. Last week, Amazon inked a 20-year deal with Constellation, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear reactors, to buy power from and uprate the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland. Google has now signed a deal with Constellation aimed at wringing out 890 megawatts of new power from 11 reactors across PJM Interconnection, the nation’s second-largest and arguably most stressed grid system. Asked whether the uprates are a sufficient replacement for building new reactors, Raiford Smith, Google’s head of power and energy for the cloud, said there was plenty of demand to go around. “New data centers are coming on at a gigawatt a clip,” he told me yesterday. “That means even with all the uprates, there’s still more to come.” Software giant Oracle also announced a deal last week to buy $300 million of nuclear power from a NextEra nuclear plant in Wisconsin to help fund its increased fuel costs.
In a sign of progress on the country’s leading SMR design, the Texas grid has officially received an application for one of GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300 reactors. The 300-megawatt unit borrows from GE’s decades-long history of building boiling water reactors, and has a leg up on other SMRs given that Ontario Power Generation and the Tennessee Valley Authority, two of the continent’s biggest state-owned utilities, are building the first and second BWRX-300s, respectively. But the application to connect to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ power lines comes, per Bloomberg, from Blue Energy Global, a developer that has promised to build out modular power stations that convert seamlessly from gas to nuclear. While the company considers itself “reactor-agnostic,” it’s first focused on building out plants with the BWRX-300.
The Indonesian government has halted the clearing of an area of rainforest in Papua roughly the size of Maryland to make way for farmland to grow crops for food and biofuels. In twin announcements at a sustainability forum in Jakarta, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, President Prabowo Subianto’s special envoy for climate and energy, said the government would shift rice and sugarcane projects to degraded land, delivering a victory to both conservationists who sought to preserve vital habitats and carbon sinks and activists who sought to preserve indigenous cultures who depend on the forests. “This decision renews Indonesia’s leadership in showing how to expand agriculture while protecting nature,” Glenn Hurowitz, the founder and chief executive of the advocacy group Mighty Earth, said in a statement. In a post on X, journalist Michael Grunwald, who authored a landmark book about the climate impact of food production, called the news “a massive victory for the planet.”
For the past 18 years, John Murdock, an attorney and self-described conservative Christian, has served in the legal division at the Department of the Interior. But he resigned abruptly last month over what he called the Trump administration’s “deeply troubling assault on the rule of law.” Under the administration, he wrote in a blistering resignation letter obtained by the investigative site Public Domain, the “all of the above” energy strategy “has seemingly morphed into ‘one of the above,’ solely focused on fossil fuels.” Murdock highlighted “recent decisions to shutter nearly complete offshore wind projects and to pay TotalEnergies hundreds of millions of dollars to renounce wind leases” as examples of “an assault on logic and the American taxpayer.” He added: “We are headed in the wrong direction.
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About a week ago, I told you the European Union was considering delaying implementation of its methane rule by a year to avoid jacking up prices on imported gas even higher when exporters inevitably fell short of the bloc’s strict reporting requirements for emissions throughout the fossil fuel supply chain. Well, it’s happened. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU lawmakers the postponement would save money. Her energy minister, Dan Jørgensen, cautioned that “we do not foresee this to be more than one year,” Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, Dutch researchers at the internet-scanning firm Modat told Reuters that hackers could seize full control of roughly 181 wind and solar sites around Europe and tamper with the administrative systems of thousands more. One wind turbine’s web page showed live data, “start,” “stop,” and “reset” buttons, and the turbine locations. “What we can map in hours, an attacker can map in hours too,” the report said. The researchers encouraged operators to take admin interfaces off the internet immediately.
Japanese automakers may be notoriously behind China on making electric vehicle batteries. But Suzuki has just released its first electric kei car — that beloved category of ulta-compact Japanese vehicles — using BYD’s batteries but undercutting the Chinese auto giant’s cheapest EV. The new Suzuki e-SKY will beat out BYD’s Racco as Japan’s cheapest mini EV, starting at about $13,500, according to Electrek.

The renewables industry is tapping in a WWE champion to make its case. John Cena stars in a new ad series backed by a consortium of wind and solar companies. “How powerful is clean energy?” he asks. “Pretend this is solar,” he says, flexing his right bicep. Flexing the left, he says: “And this is wind.” He then proceeds to obliterate a boulder by punching it into a statue of himself. It’s funny and charming.