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Transmission has been one of the biggest obstacles of decarbonizing the power grid in America. In the past week, however, the country has taken two big steps toward finally removing it.
Last week, the Department of Energy published a list of 10 high-priority areas for grid development, called National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors, designed to help accelerate some of the most annoying aspects of the siting process. Then on Monday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission passed a new rule directing grid planners to take a longer view on what America’s future electricity needs will look like.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with two special guests — Maria Robinson, who leads the Energy Department’s Grid Deployment Office, and Heatmap reporter Matthew Zeitlin — about what these measures mean for the Biden administration’s climate policy and how soon we might see new power lines get built. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Wow. Okay. So basically, any — so can I just back up for a second? I think, first of all, I just want to go: Wow. So all of, the whole power we’re talking about today is very important. There’s nothing else like it in the federal government. But also, you’re going to have to do a whole NEPA process on it?
Maria Robinson: Yes, so we’re going to have to do a whole NEPA process for each one of these areas that we’re designating for NIETCs. And then the other part of this is that if they access some funding, they’re going to have to do another NEPA process. And if they access backstop siting at a FERC, you may have to do another NEPA process. And I know Congress is investigating a couple of remedies to that.
Jesse Jenkins: So that’s pretty important. Because the goal here is to try to accelerate the development of transmission, which is critical to tap into the best wind and solar resources across the country that can help lower electricity costs and help decarbonize the grid to meet the growing need for electricity. That’s coming from data centers, as listeners have heard here on Shift Key, from electrification of vehicles, hydrogen production, etc. So we’ve got a big pressure to increase the electricity supply in the country. And, you know, the cheapest resources are renewables, but we’ve got to be able to plug them into the grid.
So if this process is going to ... designating these NIETCs and then ultimately getting transmission lines built out within them, with access to federal support for financing and backstop siting authority, is going to play out over a multi-year NEPA process — or several of them — how quickly could we realistically expect to start seeing transmission lines built within some of these corridors?
Maria Robinson: What’s great about the cohort — and this is just our very first cohort of those named national transmission corridors. We anticipate that we’ll open up applications again, maybe as soon as this fall, for another round, as well, depending on how many we move forward with to do full NEPA on. It really depends on our ability to get all of that NEPA done.
But some of these are really ready for prime time. Some of them are just looking for some additional financing. And are looking at construction dates as soon as, say, 2028, 2029, which in the grand scheme of things for transmission is relatively soon.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…
Watershed's climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
FischTank PR uses its decade-plus experience working in the climate tech space to introduce clients to top-tier journalists at the right time, for the right story. We don’t tire-spin — we take action and understand we are hired to get results. To learn more, visit fischtankpr.com.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.