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Revisiting a favorite episode with guest Ilaria Mazzocco.
The Chinese electric automaker BYD is entering a new stage in its history. Last month, it sold more than half a million electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. BYD has already shipped more cars this year than Ford and Honda, and it is fast coming for Volkswagen, GM, and Toyota’s crowns as the world’s three largest automakers.
Earlier this year, Rob and Jesse spoke with Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. She has watched China’s EV industry grow from a small regional experiment into a planet-reshaping juggernaut. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, we’re re-running that conversation — one of our favorites ever to happen on the show. We’ll be back with a new episode next week.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: It’s been clear since Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement, to some degree, that China was trying to race ahead in these clean technologies in a way that America was not. But I feel like the full arrival of the Chinese EV industry in the U.S. discourse has only happened in the past year. Can you zoom out and just give us a sense of how we went from the Chinese car industry being … not a joke, necessarily, but not really seen as a serious global competitor, to now, where the Chinese EV industry is shaping U.S. and European policy at the highest levels?
Ilaria Mazzocco: I actually think the fact that the traditional internal combustion engine automotive industry in China was so uncompetitive is part of the reason why we’re here, right? So the Chinese government for decades tried to come up with ways of getting a world-class industry. So it’s like, you know, to access the Chinese market, you have to create a joint venture, and the government picked — usually it was state-owned enterprises, which are not known for their dynamism and creativity and innovation.
And in fact the car companies that did do better in China were often sort of the private, or like the small state-owned enterprises that were sort of coming in from the margins and maybe struggled to get a license to operate initially — like Geely, right? Geely was sort of a classic example of that.
But essentially, by around the global financial crisis, there was the sense that this just wasn’t working. And this was also at a time when the Chinese bureaucracy is starting to think more and more about industrial upgrading. Salaries in China are going up. So you want to think of what’s next steps as maybe textiles and other sort of lower-end manufacturing moves outside of China. And so the thinking was, well, why don’t we invest and put our weight behind the next-generation technology in automotive, and sort of invest in that. And that way, we’re competing on a level playing field.
Ironically, that’s sort of the idea — or in the sense that, you know, you’re not competing with companies that have been accumulating IP for over 100 years, you’re sort of playing … Chinese companies may have even an advantage if they start early.
This was sort of the brainchild of the minister at the time, the minister of science and technology, who was an auto guy, Wan Gang. And so this was a fairly small project, to be honest. This wasn’t something that the secretary of the party or the premier who came up with it. It was a ministry-level initiative. There were four ministries working on it, but yeah, pretty small. It was really pilot city programs, not a big success initially — kind of expensive — but they stick with it. And that’s kind of the key there, right? So that’s what the big advantage that the Chinese bureaucracy has, that it can have that policy continuity. These are not politicized things, issues. These are, there’s also not, there’s no voters there looking at the budget and saying, You’re spending a ton of money on this unproven technology. And so that’s one advantage.
What I also like to point out is that it was the right time. This is, they started the program to commercialize, right? Obviously there’d been R&D grants and that sort of thing, but there’s a program to start actually giving consumers rebates to buy EVs and incentivizing taxi fleets, which was pretty crucial in China, and bus fleets to electrify self-starts around 2009, 2010. And you know, in those years, that’s also when Tesla is starting to emerge, right? This is a moment in which the technology is … not mature, but it’s mature enough that it can actually make real strides when it starts to be commercialized.
And then the third part is you had really good entrepreneurs. You had BYD that was just there lobbying to get this. You actually had Tesla in there trying to get more incentives for this, as well. But, you know, you had Chinese companies like BYD that were really at the margins and quite hungry that really took up this opportunity and started investing and really believed in it. So I think you had that combination of factors and, you know, now we’re like 15 years later, I think we’re seeing the results of it.
I will say it doesn’t always work that way. To an extent, there’s an element of luck, right? This is the problem with industrial policy. You can do the work right in the research and you can get it right, but it’s still not a … you don’t always know that it’s going to work out. And I give the example of fuel cell technology. They received the same types of subsidies, fuel cell passenger vehicles in China. And that, you know, we’re nowhere close to seeing a mass market for that.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.
A conversation with J. Timmons Roberts, executive director of Brown University’s Climate Social Science Network
This week’s interview is with Brown University professor J. Timmons Roberts. Those of you familiar with the fight over offshore wind may not know Roberts by name, but you’re definitely familiar with his work: He and his students have spearheaded some of the most impactful research conducted on anti-offshore wind opposition networks. This work is a must-read for anyone who wants to best understand how the anti-renewables movement functions and why it may be difficult to stop it from winning out.
So with Trump 2.0 on the verge of banning offshore wind outright, I decided to ask Roberts what he thinks developers should be paying attention to at this moment. The following interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
Is the anti-renewables movement a political force the country needs to reckon with?
Absolutely. In my opinion it’s been unfortunate for the environmental groups, the wind development, the government officials, climate scientists – they’ve been unwilling to engage directly with those groups. They want to keep a very positive message talking about the great things that come with wind and solar. And they’ve really left the field open as a result.
I think that as these claims sit there unrefuted and naive people – I don’t mean naive in a negative sense but people who don’t know much about this issue – are only hearing the negative spin about renewables. It’s a big problem.
When you say renewables developers aren’t interacting here – are you telling me the wind industry is just letting these people run roughshod?
I’ve seen no direct refutation in those anti-wind Facebook groups, and there’s very few environmentalists or others. People are quite afraid to go in there.
But even just generally. This vast network you’ve tracked – have you seen a similar kind of counter mobilization on the part of those who want to build these wind farms offshore?
There’s some mobilization. There’s something called the New England for Offshore Wind coalition. There’s some university programs. There’s some other oceanographic groups, things like that.
My observation is that they’re mostly staff organizations and they’re very cautious. They’re trying to work as a coalition. And they’re going as slow as their most cautious member.
As someone who has researched these networks, what are you watching for in the coming year? Under the first year of Trump 2.0?
Yeah I mean, channeling my optimistic and Midwestern dad, my thought is that there may be an overstepping by the Trump administration and by some of these activists. The lack of viable alternative pathways forward and almost anti-climate approaches these groups are now a part of can backfire for them. Folks may say, why would I want to be supportive of your group if you’re basically undermining everything I believe in?
What do you think developers should know about the research you have done into these networks?
I think it's important for deciding bodies and the public, the media and so on, to know who they’re hearing when they hear voices at a public hearing or in a congressional field hearing. Who are the people representing? Whose voice are they advancing?
It’s important for these actors that want to advance action on climate change and renewables to know what strategies and the tactics are being used and also know about the connections.
One of the things you pointed out in your research is that, yes, there are dark money groups involved in this movement and there are outside figures involved, but a lot of this sometimes is just one person posts something to the internet and then another person posts something to the internet.
Does that make things harder when it comes to addressing the anti-renewables movement?
Absolutely. Social media’s really been devastating for developing science and informed, rational public policymaking. It’s so easy to create a conspiracy and false information and very slanted, partial information to shoot holes at something as big as getting us off of fossil fuels.
Our position has developed as we understand that indeed these are not just astro-turf groups created by some far away corporation but there are legitimate concerns – like fishing, where most of it is based on certainty – and then there are these sensationalized claims that drive fears. That fear is real. And it’s unfortunate.
Anything else you’d really like to tell our readers?
I didn’t really choose this topic. I feel like it really got me. It was me and four students sitting in my conference room down the hall and I said, have you heard about this group that just started here in Rhode Island that’s making these claims we should investigate? And students were super excited about it and have really been the leaders.