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Why he did is anybody’s guess. But we’re all about to suffer the consequences.
Donald Trump hasn’t taken office yet, but the quarter of a billion dollars Elon Musk invested in Trump’s victory is already paying off in ways large and small. On Friday, Reuters reported that the Trump transition team is looking to scrap a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration crash-reporting requirement, “a move that could cripple the government’s ability to investigate and regulate the safety of vehicles with automated-driving systems.” Tesla finds this requirement irksome, and lo, it may soon disappear.
In the scope of Musk’s emerging sway over the Trump administration and the course of federal policy in the coming years, it’s a relatively minor story of potentially corrupt influence and the subversion of the public interest. But an even more disturbing picture of Musk’s full priority set is coming into focus.
Musk, the richest human being in history (his net worth now tops $400 billion), may soon exercise a control over government policy unprecedented for a private citizen, which as recently as a year or so ago might have seemed like a net positive for the fight against climate change. Until the relatively immediate present, Musk was rightly counted as a hero of that battle. Whether or not you accept his claim that “I’ve done more for the environment than any single human on Earth,” Musk has certainly done more than anyone to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. And no public figure could — if he wanted — have more ability to convince conservatives in general, and Donald Trump in particular, to accept the reality of climate change and commit to doing something about it than he does.
But that is not what Elon Musk wants. It is becoming clear that in pursuit of his own objectives — money, power, domination over others, personal aggrandizement, and the realization of his dream of making humanity a “multi-planet species” — Musk is content not just to set aside the fight against climate change, but to actively undermine it.
While Musk has not made any grand announcement declaring that he no longer cares about climate, there is considerable evidence to suggest he does not. In a rambling interview with Trump this August, Musk said that his views on the fossil fuel industry are “probably different from what most people would assume.” He explained that “I don’t think we should vilify the oil and gas industry,” and although over time we should move toward sustainable energy, “we still have quite a bit of time … we don’t need to rush and we don’t need to stop farmers from farming or prevent people from having steaks.”
Which is almost exactly what any fossil fuel CEO would say.
It certainly marks a rhetorical shift for someone who once advocated a “popular uprising” against fossil fuel companies. One might object that whatever he says in interviews, he’s still the CEO of America’s largest EV manufacturer. And Tesla no doubt remains a company filled with people committed to combating climate change who see their work as a key part of that effort. The third iteration of the company’s “Master Plan,” released last year, describes what it believes is necessary to “fully electrify the economy and eliminate fossil fuel use.”
But that doesn’t seem to reflect the CEO’s own thinking. The Washington Postreported that earlier this year, Musk killed plans to create an affordable Tesla that could have greatly expanded the reach of EVs in the U.S., opting instead to make further investments in luxury cars and artificial intelligence. (To add insult to injury, Reuters first reported in April that the car had been canceled, but Musk said that the outlet was “lying.”) “The internal deliberations over the so-called Tesla Model 2,” said the Post, “reflect what sources close to Musk describe as a significant shift in the billionaire’s attitude toward climate change.”
That’s apparent in what may be the single most important decision Trump and congressional Republicans will have to make with regard to EVs: whether to kill the $7,500 EV subsidy revived and expanded by the Inflation Reduction Act. If Musk wanted to, he could almost certainly convince Trump that the subsidies ought to remain in place. But he doesn’t; this summer he said on an earnings call that while eliminating the subsidies might cost Tesla some sales, “long term, it probably actually helps” because it would be “devastating for our competitors.” Or as he said in a tweet, “Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”
In other words, Musk favors a policy change that will reduce overall adoption of EVs, because it will hurt his competition, perhaps driving some of his competitors out of the EV market entirely. Bad for the climate, but good for Elon Musk.
Then we have the rest of the Trump administration’s agenda to roll back climate progress. To date there is zero evidence that Musk has suggested that Trump dial back his “drill, baby, drill” agenda or appoint administration figures who are anything less than fossil fuel enthusiasts. Quite the opposite: When Trump posted on Truth Social that “Any person or company investing ONE BILLION DOLLARS, OR MORE, in the United States of America, will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals,” Musk responded by tweeting, “This is awesome.”
That it isn’t in Trump’s power to single-handedly waive “all Environmental approvals” isn’t the point, so much as the fact that Musk thrills to the idea of the government no longer bothering to enforce environmental laws. While the “Department of Government Efficiency” Trump has tasked Musk with creating is neither a department, nor part of the government, nor devoted to efficiency, it nonetheless stands as a symbol of Musk’s close relationship with Trump and his ability to influence Trump’s decisions, particularly given how little Trump actually cares about policy areas other than immigration and foreign trade. It has become hard to envision Musk acting as anything other than an accelerant on Trump’s worst environmental instincts.
Musk’s shift to the right will continue to have serious national consequences in both government policy and public debate. He bought Twitter in 2022 with the stated intention of removing much of its content moderation in the name of “free speech,” with the predictable result that the renamed X quickly became a sewer of far-right extremism and misinformation of all kinds. As multiple analyses have shown, climate denialism and deceit have proliferated on X, making it one of the premier vectors of influence for those who would thwart efforts to address the climate crisis.
There is no reason to believe that this concerns Musk in any way. The man who once had the key insight that the way to fight climate change was to make EVs cool now thinks nothing is cooler than getting retweets and likes from the right-wing trolls who consider him their king.
At this point, one might even question whether Musk ever cared about climate change, or if concern about warming was just an engine that he realized could make him rich and feed his grandiose dreams of world domination. The answer to that question is: It doesn’t matter. Whatever he might once have thought, Musk has been transformed. He is no longer a force for good in the climate fight; instead, he’ll be one more obstacle to ensuring the future of the planet. If only he didn’t have the ability to do so much damage.
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A new Data for Progress poll provided exclusively to Heatmap shows steep declines in support for the CEO and his business.
Nearly half of likely U.S. voters say that Elon Musk’s behavior has made them less likely to buy or lease a Tesla, a much higher figure than similar polls have found in the past, according to a new Data for Progress poll provided exclusively to Heatmap.
The new poll, which surveyed a national sample of voters over the President’s Day weekend, shows a deteriorating public relations situation for Musk, who has become one of the most powerful individuals in President Donald Trump’s new administration.
Exactly half of likely voters now hold an unfavorable view of Musk, a significant increase since Trump’s election. Democrats and independents are particularly sour on the Tesla CEO, with 81% of Democrats and 51% of independents reporting unfavorable views.
By comparison, 42% of likely voters — and 71% of Republicans — report a favorable opinion of Musk. The billionaire is now eight points underwater with Americans, with 39% of likely voters reporting “very” unfavorable views. Musk is much more unpopular than President Donald Trump, who is only about 1.5 points underwater in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Perhaps more ominous for Musk is that many Americans seem to be turning away from Tesla, the EV manufacturer he leads. About 45% of likely U.S. voters say that they are less likely to buy or lease a Tesla because of Musk, according to the new poll.
That rejection is concentrated among Democrats and independents, who make up an overwhelming share of EV buyers in America. Two-thirds of Democrats now say that Musk has made them less likely to buy a Tesla, with the vast majority of that group saying they are “much less likely” to do so. Half of independents report that Musk has turned them off Teslas. Some 21% of Democrats and 38% of independents say that Musk hasn’t affected their Tesla buying decision one way or the other.
Republicans, who account for a much smaller share of the EV market, do not seem to be rushing in to fill the gap. More than half of Republicans, or 55%, say that Musk has had no impact on their decision to buy or lease a Tesla. While 23% of Republicans say that Musk has made them more likely to buy a Tesla, roughly the same share — 22% — say that he has made them less likely.
Tesla is the world’s most valuable automaker, worth more than the next dozen or so largest automakers combined. Musk’s stake in the company makes up more than a third of his wealth, according to Bloomberg.
Thanks in part to its aging vehicle line-up, Tesla’s total sales fell last year for the first time ever, although it reported record deliveries in the fourth quarter. The United States was Tesla’s largest market by revenue in 2024.
Musk hasn’t always been such a potential drag on Tesla’s reach. In February 2023, soon after Musk’s purchase of Twitter, Heatmap asked U.S. adults whether the billionaire had made them more or less likely to buy or lease a Tesla. Only about 29% of Americans reported that Musk had made them less likely, while 26% said that he made them more likely.
When Heatmap asked the question again in November 2023, the results did not change. The same 29% of U.S. adults said that Musk had made them less likely to buy a Tesla.
By comparison, 45% of likely U.S. voters now say that Musk makes them less likely to get a Tesla, and only 17% say that he has made them more likely to do so. (Note that this new result isn’t perfectly comparable with the old surveys, because while the new poll surveyed likely voters , the 2023 surveys asked all U.S. adults.)
Musk’s popularity has also tumbled in that time. As recently as September, Musk was eight points above water in Data for Progress’ polling of likely U.S. voters.
Since then, Musk has become a power player in Republican politics and been made de facto leader of the Department of Government Efficiency. He has overseen thousands of layoffs and sought to win access to computer networks at many federal agencies, including the Department of Energy, the Social Security Administration, and the IRS, leading some longtime officials to resign in protest.
Today, he is eight points underwater — a 16-point drop in five months.
“We definitely have seen a decline, which I think has mirrored other pollsters out there who have been asking this question, especially post-election,” Data for Progress spokesperson Abby Springs, told me .
The new Data for Progress poll surveyed more than 1,200 likely voters around the country on Friday, February 14, and Saturday, February 15. Its results were weighted by demographics, geography, and recalled presidential vote. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.
On Washington walk-outs, Climeworks, and HSBC’s net-zero goals
Current conditions: Severe storms in South Africa spawned a tornado that damaged hundreds of homes • Snow is falling on parts of Kentucky and Tennessee still recovering from recent deadly floods • It is minus 39 degrees Fahrenheit today in Bismarck, North Dakota, which breaks a daily record set back in 1910.
Denise Cheung, Washington’s top federal prosecutor, resigned yesterday after refusing the Trump administratin’s instructions to open a grand jury investigation of climate grants issued by the Environmental Protection Agency during the Biden administration. Last week EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that the agency would be seeking to revoke $20 billion worth of grants issued to nonprofits through the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund for climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives, suggesting that the distribution of this money was rushed and wasteful of taxpayer dollars. In her resignation letter, Cheung said she didn’t believe there was enough evidence to support grand jury subpoenas.
Failed battery maker Northvolt will sell its industrial battery unit to Scania, a Swedish truckmaker. The company launched in 2016 and became Europe’s biggest and best-funded battery startup. But mismanagement, production delays, overreliance on Chinese equipment, and other issues led to its collapse. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November and its CEO resigned. As Reutersreported, Northvolt’s industrial battery business was “one of its few profitable units,” and Scania was a customer. A spokesperson said the acquisition “will provide access to a highly skilled and experienced team and a strong portfolio of battery systems … for industrial segments, such as construction and mining, complementing Scania's current customer offering.”
TikTok is partnering with Climeworks to remove 5,100 tons of carbon dioxide from the air through 2030, the companies announced today. The short-video platform’s head of sustainability, Ian Gill, said the company had considered several carbon removal providers, but that “Climeworks provided a solution that meets our highest standards and aligns perfectly with our sustainability strategy as we work toward carbon neutrality by 2030.” The swiss carbon capture startup will rely on direct air capture technology, biochar, and reforestation for the removal. In a statement, Climeworks also announced a smaller partnership with a UK-based distillery, and said the deals “highlight the growing demand for carbon removal solutions across different industries.”
HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, is abandoning its 2030 net-zero goal and pushing it back by 20 years. The 2030 target was for the bank’s own operations, travel, and supply chain, which, as The Guardiannoted, is “arguably a much easier goal than cutting the emissions of its loan portfolio and client base.” But in its annual report, HSBC said it’s been harder than expected to decarbonize supply chains, forcing it to reconsider. Back in October the bank removed its chief sustainability officer role from the executive board, which sparked concerns that it would walk back on its climate commitments. It’s also reviewing emissions targets linked to loans, and considering weakening the environmental goals in its CEO’s pay package.
A group of 27 research teams has been given £81 million (about $102 million) to look for signs of two key climate change tipping points and create an “early warning system” for the world. The tipping points in focus are the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, and the collapse of north Atlantic ocean currents. The program, funded by the UK’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency, will last for five years. Researchers will use a variety of monitoring and measuring methods, from seismic instruments to artificial intelligence. “The fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge from different angles, yet working together in a coordinated fashion, makes this program a unique opportunity,” said Dr. Reinhard Schiemann, a climate scientist at the University of Reading.
In 2024, China alone invested almost as much in clean energy technologies as the entire world did in fossil fuels.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the name of the person serving as EPA administrator.
Rob and Jesse get real on energy prices with PowerLines’ Charles Hua.
The most important energy regulators in the United States aren’t all in the federal government. Each state has its own public utility commission, a set of elected or appointed officials who regulate local power companies. This set of 200 individuals wield an enormous amount of power — they oversee 1% of U.S. GDP — but they’re often outmatched by local utility lobbyists and overlooked in discussions from climate advocates.
Charles Hua wants to change that. He is the founder and executive director of PowerLines, a new nonprofit engaging with America’s public utility commissions about how to deliver economic growth while keeping electricity rates — and greenhouse gas emissions — low. Charles previously advised the U.S. Department of Energy on developing its grid modernization strategy and analyzed energy policy for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk to Charles about why PUCs matter, why they might be a rare spot for progress over the next four years, and why (and how) normal people should talk to their local public utility commissioner. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I want to pivot a bit and ask something that I think Jesse and I have talked about, something that you and I have talked about, Charles, is that the PUCs are going to be very important during the second Trump administration, and there’s a lot of possibilities, or there’s some possibilities for progress during the Trump administration, but there’s also some risks. So let’s start here: As you survey the state utility landscape, what are you worried about over the next four years or so? What should people be paying attention to at the PUC level?
Charle Hua: I think everything that we’re hearing around AI data centers, load growth, those are decisions that ultimately state public utility commissioners are going to make. And that’s because utilities are significantly revising their load forecasts.
Just take Georgia Power — which I know you talked about last episode at the end — which, in 2022, just two years ago, their projected load forecast for the end of the decade was about 400 megawatts. And then a year later, they increased that to 6,600 megawatts. So that’s a near 17x increase. And if you look at what happens with the 2023 Georgia Power IRP, I think the regulators were caught flat footed about just how much load would actually materialize from the data centers and what the impact on customer bills would be.
Meyer:And what’s an IRP? Can you just give us ...
Hua: Yes, sorry. So, integrated resource plan. So that’s the process by which utilities spell out how they’re proposing to make investments over a long term planning horizon, generally anywhere from 15 to 30 years. And if we look at, again, last year’s integrated resource plan in Georgia, there was significant proposed new fossil fuel infrastructure that was ultimately fully approved by the public service commission.
And there’s real questions about how consumer interests are or aren’t protected with decisions like that — in part because, if we look at what’s actually driving things like rising utility bills, which is a huge problem. I mean, one in three Americans can’t pay their utility bills, which have increased 20% over the last two years, two to three years. One of the biggest drivers of that is volatile gas prices that are exposed to international markets. And there’s real concern that if states are doubling down on gas investments and customers shoulder 100% of the risk of that gas price volatility that customers’ bills will only continue to grow.
And I think what’s going on in Georgia, for instance, is a harbinger of what’s to come nationally. In many ways, it’s the epitome of the U.S. clean energy transition, where there’s both a lot of clean energy investment that’s happening with all of the new growth in manufacturing facilities in Georgia, but if you actually peel beneath the layers and you see what’s going on internal to the state as it relates to its electricity mix, there’s a lot to be concerned about.
And the question is, are we going to have public utility commissions and regulatory bodies that can adequately protect the public interest in making these decisions going forward? And I think that’s the million dollar question.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Download Heatmap Labs and Hydrostor’s free report to discover the crucial role of long duration energy storage in ensuring a reliable, clean future and stable grid. Learn more about Hydrostor here.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.