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The Empire State just passed legislation to try to live up to its climate goals. Will other states follow?

The Empire State took a big leap toward a carbon-free future this week.
Late Tuesday night, after more than a month of negotiations, the New York state legislature passed a $229 billion budget, enacting three major climate policies in the process. The legislation will not only give teeth to ambitious emissions targets the state established four years ago, but it also forms a sort of blueprint for state-level clean energy transitions around the country.
New York passed a law setting up targets to cut emissions across its economy back in 2019 when Andrew Cuomo was governor. But it didn’t stipulate how the state was supposed to achieve them. Instead, the law set in motion a multi-year process for state leaders and appointed advisors to work out the best path forward. The group’s findings were finally published in December, and two of the climate policies enacted this week — a ban on natural gas in new buildings and a cap-and-invest program — are key recommendations from that document. The third, which creates a new avenue for publicly-owned renewable energy projects, was not part of that plan, but was born out of a vigorous, four-year grassroots campaign by the Democratic Socialists of America.
New York’s budget deal won’t fill in all the gaps in its strategy to decarbonize. But it does accomplish a number of big and essential first steps, like limiting the growth of natural gas and developing sources of funding to pay for the transition. About half of the country has enacted greenhouse gas reduction targets, but few states have put in place the policies to achieve them.
Below, a look at New York’s three big climate moves and why they could be a model for other states looking to live up to their own climate goals.
Buildings are by far the largest contributor to climate change in New York, accounting for 32% of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. They are also an exceedingly hard source to tackle, as those emissions come from a bunch of long-lived appliances like natural gas heating systems, stoves, and clothes dryers. But electric alternatives, which can be powered by renewable energy, are readily available. One easy first step any state can take is to stop the problem from getting worse by requiring that new buildings forego fossil fuels.
A few municipalities in the Empire State, like New York City and Ithaca, have already enacted bans on fossil fuel-burning appliances in new buildings. Now, Governor Kathy Hochul is set to pass a similar state-wide ban that will begin to go into effect in 2026. This is a year later than what was recommended by the state’s climate plan. But it will still send a powerful message that gas is no longer a growth industry in one of the biggest economies in the U.S.
“It is very, very clear now what the direction of travel is,” Pete Sikora, climate and inequality campaigns director of New York Communities for Change, a grassroots organization, told me. “That’s a monumental shift, as I see it, from an earlier environment, where Democrats were mouthing that ‘gas is a bridge fuel to the future.’ We’ve blown up that bridge. That bridge is collapsing into a ravine.”
While a few other states, like California and Washington, have effectively done the same thing via changes to their building codes, New York is the first state to build enough political support to cut off gas growth through its legislature. Jonny Kocher, a manager for the Carbon-Free Buildings Program at the clean energy group RMI, told me he anticipates that New York’s approach will have fewer exemptions than other states, and expects California and Washington to follow suit with legislation in order to strengthen their own policies. Washington State is currently facing a lawsuit for sidestepping the legislature.
Kocher said a gas ban isn’t necessarily a step that all states need to take in order to limit emissions from new buildings. The latest electric appliances, like heat pumps, are more efficient than gas-burning boilers or furnaces, and all-electric new construction will save consumers money in many parts of the country, so many states will move in this direction anyway. “We believe that states with existing (or new) energy efficiency goals will inevitably shift towards an all-electric code because it is simply the least expensive pathway to reach those energy efficiency goals,” he said in an email.
Implementation of New York’s climate plan has been somewhat piecemeal to date. Like many states, New York has a clean energy standard that requires utilities to buy an increasing amount of renewable energy each year. It also participates in a regional effort to cut emissions from power plants. That program raises some money for clean energy programs, like energy efficiency and electric vehicle rebates.
But while these policies are serving to clean up New York’s grid, they leave out other parts of the economy that also produce emissions, like fuel suppliers, natural gas utilities, and industrial facilities. The state has also failed to figure out how to pay for its energy transition, which is estimated to cost some $300 billion over the next 30 years. To address both of these gaps, Hochul announced in January that New York will establish a cap-and-invest program like those used by California and Washington State. The legislation passed this week fleshes out the “invest” side of the plan.
Cap-and-invest is similar to a price on carbon, and is often called a “polluter pays” program. Companies with big carbon footprints will have to purchase permits to pollute, and the number of permits available will shrink over time to ensure that the state hits its emissions targets.
These programs are complex and notoriously hard to implement well. Policy experts and environmental justice advocates have criticized California’s program for giving companies too much leeway to purchase carbon offsets instead of reducing their pollution, and for auctioning off more permits than needed.
Many of the details in New York have yet to be worked out. But the budget deal ensures that at least 30% of the proceeds raised by the program will be returned to New Yorkers to offset higher costs that may result from it. The rest will go into a climate action fund to pay for all kinds of clean energy projects and incentives.
A growing number of climate advocates are starting to unite around a more radical vision for the transition to clean energy — a shift toward publicly-owned power. Some consider it a key tenet of the Green New Deal, others just see it as a way to bring more accountability to energy companies. Utilities have historically been some of the biggest obstructors of climate action. Proponents argue that publicly-owned utilities would be better equipped to usher in the energy transition since they aren’t beholden to shareholders and can prioritize clean energy and equity over profit.
“If you’re leaving it up to the market, you can create incentives, but you have less power over where this energy is sited, who is benefitting,” said Johanna Bozuwa, executive director of the Climate and Community project.
In New York, advocates discovered that they had a “sleeping giant” in the New York Power Authority. The state-owned utility operates several big hydroelectric dams and a number of fossil fuel power plants, but its ability to build and operate solar and wind projects was severely curtailed under statute. After a four year push, and the election of a slew of DSA candidates into the legislature, the public power movement successfully pressured Hochul into changing that.
The budget deal mandates strong labor standards for any new generation built and also instructs NYPA to retire its fossil fuel plants by 2030, five years earlier than previously planned.
It remains to be seen whether authorizing NYPA to build will actually result in it using that authority. But the odds are better than they were a year ago, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act. The law made a key change to the country’s clean energy tax credits, allowing public institutions and nonprofits to claim them for the first time. Bozuwa told me that this means other states will be looking at what happens in New York and could follow its lead.
“Not every state has a NYPA, but I think that people will look to NYPA and say, ‘oh, my gosh, we could be doing that too,’” she said. “Because there’s so much money flowing in, this is the perfect time for states or even municipalities to start to develop a renewable energy generation fleet.”
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Many nonprofits representing the environmental and climate movement are split.
This is Heatmap Daily, an evening digest written by our executive editor.
It’s now been just over a week since a gang of four bipartisan senators released the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA. The permitting reform proposal would make too many changes to federal law to summarize cleanly here — read our explainer for that — but suffice it to say it creates a messy group of winners and losers. Utilities, data centers, and the Trump administration would lose; electricity ratepayers, clean energy companies, long-distance transmission lines, and natural gas pipeline builders win. (As would geothermal startups, virtual power plant providers, and a few other climate tech subsectors that my colleague Katie Brigham recently detailed.)
In the ensuing week since its release, we’ve gotten a better sense of the battle lines over the bill. The hardhat unions largely support the proposal (although the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, which is often aligned with utility executives, has stayed notably silent on it.) Clean energy trade groups, such as the American Clean Power Association, back it, too, as do fossil fuel lobbying groups, such as the American Petroleum Institute.
Groups representing the environmental and climate movement are more split, and some of the most influential nonprofits have yet to render a verdict. Earlier today, the Sierra Club published its first take on the proposal, which it described as a “hard look” at the bill. The Natural Resources Defense Council asked its own “hard questions” last Friday. Neither document rejects the proposal outright, although both are critical, and both suggest that future statements are coming.
To some degree, the statements say what you might expect: The groups like all the parts of the compromise that Democrats fought for (such as those that will encourage transmission) and dislike what Republicans wanted (such as those that will ease some pipeline permitting). That is what a compromise means — and for congressional procedure reasons too tedious to explain here, permitting reform will likely always need to be passed as a bipartisan compromise, because it will always need to overcome a 60-vote Senate filibuster.
The Sierra Club’s assessment divides the bill into “green flags,” which will make “long-overdue changes to protect consumers and level the playing field for proposed transmission,” such as by making it easier to plan long-distance power lines, protect ratepayers from utility and data center freeloading, and clarify who in the government can approve power lines. It also names four “red flags,” including the “hollowing out” of court authority over some permits, the removal of a Clean Water Act provision that lets governors block pipelines and power lines, and the option to delegate partial Endangered Species Act enforcement to state governments.
This is a helpful scheme, and I hope the Sierra Club continues using it. But I think it would be a mistake to analyze the bill solely through this metric, because it implicitly assumes we are starting from a neutral baseline — or that every additional “unit” of policy support, so to speak, helps an insurgent industry as much as it might aid an incumbent industry. To be clear: Although I’ve endorsed the idea of permitting reform in the past, I’ve been careful not to endorse or reject this particular permitting bill yet; I hope to write a more comprehensive take on this legislation — and whether I think it’s a good idea — before senators ultimately vote on it.
So for now, let me say that I think everyone should keep in mind that the baseline around U.S. energy permitting is, in fact, not neutral today. By this, I do not merely mean that natural gas pipelines already have a one-stop shop for federal permits, but transmission developers have to go hat in hand to every state government; nor that fracking is already carved out from some federal environmental review laws, but enhanced geothermal technology isn’t.
The mismatch goes deeper than that. Many of the discussions of the bill that I’ve seen seem to fear that the United States might witness some enormous and unprecedented fossil fuel buildout were the bill to pass. But make no mistake: We are already witnessing such a buildout. The United States is slated to add more than 60 gigawatts of new natural gas generation capacity by 2030 under its existing laws.
The existing system of laws, regulations, and procedures is failing to avert an enormous fossil fuel buildout. The existing system has proven itself completely inadequate to manage an era of electricity demand growth and the data center boom without surging fossil demand and sky-rocketing electricity prices. The existing system of laws is pushing hyperscalers and developers to burn natural gas on site, often through rudimentary jet engines.
And the existing system of laws has shown that fossil fuel consumers will go to great lengths to move and obtain fossil fuels, even when dedicated transport options like pipelines are not available. I’ve heard fears that the permitting bill will make it easier to build natural gas pipelines. But pipelines, to a dedicated artificial intelligence customer, are no constraint: Oracle is now delivering natural gas to some of its data centers by truck when pipeline capacity isn’t available.
There may be reasons for green groups to reject this deal. (And there may be reasons for Democratic lawmakers to support it anyway, even if environmental groups oppose it.) But the perfection of our current environmental and energy legal regime is not one of them. Even if your sole goal were to reduce the carbon emissions produced by the American energy system — even if you set aside the problems with cost, conventional pollution, or monopoly control — the current system sucks.
Advanced nuclear will take a decade or more to hit commercial scale. Meanwhile, the hyperscalers need power now. Enter the uprate.
When America’s tech titans started plowing money into nuclear technology to power data centers in 2024, companies such as Google and Amazon opted to invest first in next-generation reactor startups. But electricity demand is soaring today, and those projects are still years away — at least — from generating power at reasonable commercial rates.
So the industry is hedging by betting on existing nuclear plants to pump out more electricity in the near term. Uprates — renovations that allow nuclear operators to produce more power from existing reactors — are all the rage this year.
In February, the Department of Energy issued its largest-ever loan to Southern Company to fund up to 6 gigawatts of uprates across the utility’s nuclear fleet. Last week, Amazon signed a deal with Constellation Energy, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear reactors, to uprate the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland to generate another 190 megawatts on top of its current 1.8-gigawatt output. Soon after, the Energy Department offered nuclear operator Vistra a $4 billion loan to uprate plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Then on Tuesday, Google inked its own deal with Constellation aimed at wringing out 890 megawatts of new power from 11 reactors across PJM Interconnection, the nation’s second-biggest and arguably most overworked grid system.
“Everyone loves nuclear, but it takes a really long time to build,” Raiford Smith, Google’s head of power and energy for the cloud, told me yesterday. “The fastest way to get it is via uprates. It’s real megawatts, but the quicker, shorter-term approach.”
Building new reactors, he said, “is the intermediate term plan, and we see fusion as the longer term bet.” Given that “new data centers are coming on at a gigawatt a clip, that means even with all the uprates, there’s still more to come,” he added.
The investments into existing nuclear stations deliver a win for Constellation, whose chief executive, Joe Dominguez, has been among the more vocal C-suite skeptics of what my colleague Matthew Zeitlin described as utility executives’ “load growth mania” over the past two years. But the deals say as much about the shifting lines in the debate over how to expand the nuclear power fleet in this country — what size reactors are better, how to finance projects — as the disagreement over how much new generation is needed to supply the artificial intelligence boom.
The deal “is a win-win,” Emmet Penney, the director of energy and infrastructure at the think tank Foundation for American Innovation, told me. “Constellation and Google are revealing just how essential our nuclear fleet is to maintaining our energy dominance.”
America’s last attempt at a nuclear buildout ended in a series of financial boondoggles. The problems traced back to numerous factors: Decades without any nuclear construction atrophied the workforce. Electricity market reforms aimed at breaking up monopoly utilities left the industry with few players equipped with large enough balance sheets to take on megaprojects that would take years to build and billions of dollars of upfront capital. Increased competition from cheap natural gas.
The only two new reactors that made it over the finish line, Southern’s pair of Westinghouse AP1000s at the Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in eastern Georgia, came in billions of dollars over budget, in part because the developers erred in choosing a Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing pathway that required long stops and costly delays every time the builders tweaked the design. Since those were the first AP1000s constructed in the U.S., there were plenty of last-minute design kinks to iron out.
In the meantime, the industry rallied behind the idea of small modular reactors. By making individual reactors roughly a third or less powerful than large-scale units such as the AP1000, the thinking went, developers would need to buy more, helping the technology slide down the cost curve through repeated construction and assembly-line manufacturing of components.
While Google and Amazon both backed fourth-generation startups whose designs use coolants other than water, such as liquid sodium or helium gas, the only such reactor operating in the world is in China, and America’s track record of running similar plants is poor. As such, government-owned utilities such as Canada’s Ontario Power Generation and America’s Tennessee Valley Authority have thrown their weight behind third-generation SMRs that essentially just shrink down existing water-cooled technology. The first of GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300s, a 300-megawatt design based on the boiling water reactors that make up about a third of the U.S. fleet, is now underway at OPG’s Darlington plant. In the U.S., meanwhile, the NRC just issued a construction license for the TVA’s first BRWX-300.
But the completion of the second AP1000 at Plant Vogtle demonstrated an uncomfortable reality proposed by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: That the next, cheapest reactor to build in the U.S. would be another of Westinghouse’s flagship design. Vogtle Unit 4 came online in 2024 roughly 30% cheaper and faster than its slightly older twin, Vogtle Unit 3.
If that reduction seemed to justify the approach SMR companies were pursuing, a report by an economist and former antinuclear researcher raises new questions. The study by Charles Komanoff, which I covered here last month, suggests that the number of reactors required to achieve major cost reduction through “economies of duplication” pales in comparison to the price drop achieved through “economies of scale.” In other words, the nuclear industry’s time-tested approach to making reactors more economical — making them bigger — is still the best bet.
The Trump administration certainly agrees. The Energy Department laid plans for at least 10 new AP1000s last year, and put up another nearly $20 billion loan package for utilities that form joint ventures with Westinghouse to build one of the 1,100-megawatt reactors. South Korea is currently working out the fine print on a deal to help finance and build as many as six AP1000s and two APR1400s, the Korean rival to the Westinghouse reactor.
Whether any American utilities step up to help build any of those AP1000s remains an open question.
“There’s no way any utilities could consider building a large AP1000 because doing so could bankrupt the whole operation, and they don’t have enough confidence,” Chris Gadomski, the lead nuclear analyst at the consultancy BloombergNEF, told me.
The workforce that constructed the two AP1000s at Vogtle, he said, are now out building data centers. Unlike the Chinese, whose state-owned nuclear companies reverse engineered the AP1000 and made it relatively cheap to build by constructing as many as half a dozen at a time at one location, “we don’t have the wherewithal or sites in this country to build six reactors at once,” Gadomski said. “You’re lucky to build two at one site in this country.”
So fusion and next-generation fission remain years away. Current-generation SMRs come with big questions. And the leading large-scale design, the AP1000, is proving a hard sell to utilities. That leaves two options: Restarting decommissioned plants and uprating current reactors. The Energy Department has pumped billions in loans into projects to restart at least three permanently closed reactors: Holtec’s Palisades plant in Michigan, NextEra’s Duane Arnold facility in Iowa, and Constellation’s Crane Clean Energy Center, née Three Mile Island, in Pennsylvania. The consensus among industry experts is that those are the only three that remain intact enough to start back up; every other shuttered plant is at too advanced a stage of demolition.
That leaves uprates.
There are limits to how much power can be drawn from existing plants, said Jeff Jenkins, the founder and managing partner of Bernhard Capital Partners, an investment firm whose portfolio includes Allied Power, a contractor that has worked with Constellation on past uprates. “There’s still a few gigawatts out there,” he said. “And a gigawatt is a lot.”
But ultimately, the U.S. nuclear buildout needs options.
“It’s very much a hedge,” Gadomski said. “They’re spreading their bets. That’s a strength of Google’s strategy. They’re willing to place bets on advanced reactors, fusion, and still try to double down on the capacity of existing plants.”
On methane rules, British wind, and the Israeli electricity market
Current conditions: Singapore’s air is the worst in the world as wildfire smoke from Indonesia chokes the city state and neighboring Malaysia • Following a summer-like heat wave, temperatures in the American West are set to drop by as much as 50 degrees Fahrenheit as a cold snap moves in • In the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Isaias officially strengthened into the first Atlantic hurricane of the season this morning.
With its offshore oil fields booming in Guyana and its opportunities opening in Venezuela, Exxon Mobil is eyeing the next location for the Americas’ oil and gas: Trinidad and Tobago. In an interview with the Financial Times this week, the company’s exploration chief said the island nation’s existing oil and gas industry could expand to tap the same basin east of Venezuela that has transformed Guyana from one of the hemisphere’s poorest nations to one of its richest in terms of per capita gross domestic product. “A lot of people ask, ‘well, where’s the next Guyana?’” John Ardill, Exxon Mobil’s vice-president and head of global exploration, told the newspaper. “In Trinidad, we moved in as a play extension to Guyana.” The agreement between Exxon Mobil and the Trinidadian government took “about half as long as it usually takes on a good day,” delivering a pact in “record time.”
America’s oil majors are also looking outside the hemisphere. As you may recall from August, I told you that Exxon Mobil was also considering a big investment in Africa, with Mozambique drawing particular attention. Brazil’s state-owned Petrobras, meanwhile, is expanding its own grasp on the Americas’ oil boom. On Wednesday, Upstream reported, the company bid $590 million for control of an ultra-deepwater concession.
The European Union is pausing implementation of its new rules requiring oil and gas exporters to more scrupulously track data on methane emissions. The U.S., on the other hand, is planning a straight-up rollback. At an oil industry conference in Santa Fe on Wednesday, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin teased out plans to gut core parts of the methane regulations finalized in 2024. “This proposal takes on many of the problems American producers and operators have raised with us,” Zeldin said, according to Argus Media. “That includes the burden on marginal wells and oil and gas operators in general, the super emitter program, associated gas and control device requirements.”
Record wind power generation may have slashed how much natural gas Britain needed to burn last month for electricity, but it “wasn’t enough to shield the country from surging prices triggered by the war in Iran,” Bloomberg reported. Wind turbines pumped out 6.6 terawatt-hours of electricity in September, a record for the month and 4% more than a year earlier. As a result, gas-fired generation plunged to its lowest level on record for that month. But day-ahead power rates still doubled from a year earlier.
The world’s capacity of floating offshore wind, the subset of the sector that could vastly expand the areas of shoreline dotted with turbines, has reached 382 megawatts, a 38% surge over the past 12 months, according to a Renewables Now writeup of the latest report from the trade group RenewableUK. Meanwhile, Poland has now constructed all 76 of the standard turbines built into the seabed of the Baltic Sea for its first offshore wind farm. One-third of the turbines are now generating power, according to offshoreWIND.biz.
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South Korea plans to speed up its shift away from fossil fuels with a new goal of 100 gigawatts of low-carbon energy additions by 2030 and roughly $747 billion in government-led investment over the next decade. The plan, part of the Korean Green Transformation program, “seeks to make Korea one of the world’s top three green manufacturing powers by developing industries such as hydrogen-reduction steelmaking, next-generation solar cells, and all-solid-state batteries,” according to The Korea Times, an English-language daily. New nuclear reactors are also part of the strategy.
The move comes as Seoul advances construction of as many as eight nuclear reactors in the U.S., including six of America’s Westinghouse AP1000 and two of its own APR1400s, as I told you last week.
The utility megamerger of the century so far is “not in the best interest of Virginians.” That’s the judgment the state’s lieutenant governor, Ghazala Hasmi, rendered this week following a five-city public listening tour. The statement came ahead of the State Corporation Commission’s first local hearing on the deal, and marks what Utility Dive called “the most formal expression of opposition from Virginia’s executive branch so far.” Governor Abigail Spanberger, a fellow Democrat, has not yet taken a definitive position on the merger.
But the deal follows some clear market logic. Among the benefits: It would create, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote in May, “a storage juggernaut.”

Israel’s booming tech sector and soaring stock market are just two ways its economy has dramatically changed from the socialism that defined the early decades after the country’s founding in 1948. Now that shift also includes the electricity market. Since market reforms allowed private actors into the grid at the start of last year, more than 2 million citizens, representing more than 500,244 private and business customers, have switched from the Israel Electric Corporation to private providers, according to The Jerusalem Post. Ratepayers buying electricity from private suppliers enjoy discounted rates ranging from 7% to 20%, “thanks to the lower generation costs in the private market.” Another 23,286 households and businesses submitted requests to switch suppliers just last month. OPC Energy, an independent power provider based in Tel Aviv, raised $200 million in bond issuances in August.