Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Politics

‘Natural Variability Alone’ Cannot Explain Texas Floods

On the Texas floods, wind and solar restrictions, and an executive order

‘Natural Variability Alone’ Cannot Explain Texas Floods
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: An extreme heat warning is in place for Phoenix, which could reach 113 degrees Fahrenheit today • Flooding in central North Carolina has killed at least one person after two months’ worth of rain fell in 24 hours • Parts of the U.K. this week will experience their third heatwave in less than a month.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Early analysis concludes ‘natural variability alone’ cannot explain Texas floods

The catastrophic flooding in central Texas that claimed more than 100 lives late last week was intensified by human-driven climate change, according to a rapid attribution report by ClimaMeter, an experimental framework funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research. The researchers compared historic and contemporary weather patterns in Texas’ Hill Country and found that conditions going into Fourth of July weekend were up to 7% wetter than during similar events in the past. “These results suggest that meteorological conditions similar to those of the July 2025 Texas floods are becoming more favorable for extreme precipitation, in line with what would be expected under continued global warming,” the researchers wrote, concluding that “natural variability alone cannot explain the changes in precipitation associated with this very exceptional meteorological condition.”

2. 17% of the continental U.S. now has restrictions or bans on wind and solar development: Heatmap analysis

The development of new wind and solar power plants is “now heavily restricted or outright banned in about one in five counties across the country,” according to a major new survey of public records and local ordinances by my colleagues Robinson Meyer and Charlie Clynes. Their report found bans and restrictions — such as a rule that wind turbines must be placed a certain number of miles from homes, or that solar farms cannot take up more than 1% of a county’s agricultural land — in a total of 605 U.S. counties, including at least 59 municipalities in the more-renewables-friendly Northeast. In total, the bans and restrictions on renewables cover approximately 17% of the continental United States’ total land mass.

Robinson and Charlie’s findings have not been previously reported, and their research involved calling thousands of counties where laws, in some cases, were not in existing public databases. You can access the full project- and county-level data and associated risk assessments via Heatmap Pro, here.

3. In executive order, Trump delivers on promise to ‘deal with’ wind and solar

In an executive order on Monday, President Trump directed the Treasury Department to issue “new and revised guidance” restricting which projects will still qualify for wind and solar tax credits. The order builds on the repeal of renewable energy tax credits in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which had stipulated that such projects would need to begin construction within a year and come online by 2028 to be eligible for the subsidies. Now the government will take a stricter approach to defining “the beginning of construction” to prevent “the artificial acceleration or manipulation of eligibility” by limiting credits to projects in which “a substantial portion of a subject facility has been built.”

Freedom Caucus members had described the tax credits as a sticking point during their late negotiations over the bill. As my colleagues Jael Holzman and Katie Brigham previously reported, North Carolina Republican Representative Ralph Norman alluded to a conversation with Trump in which the president had assured him that he was “going to deal with [the tax credits] in his own way.” It appears the executive order is the follow-through on that promise. Additionally, Trump’s executive order called for the Department of the Interior to determine whether any of its policies, practices, or regulations “provide preferential treatment to wind and solar facilities in comparison to dispatchable energy sources” and revise them accordingly.

4. DOE resource report warns of blackouts, ‘overreliance on intermittent energy sources’

An Energy Department report released Monday warned that blackouts in the U.S. could “increase by 100% in 2030” if the country continues to close its coal and natural gas power plants. The report, completed at the direction of an April executive order by President Trump, anticipates 209 gigawatts of new generation by 2030 to replace 104 gigawatts of retirements — but “only 22 gigawatts would come from firm baseload generation sources,” so that, “even assuming no retirements, the model found increased risk of outages in 2030 by a factor of 34.” The DOE concluded that the U.S. grid “will not be able to sustain the combined impact of coal and other plant closures, an overreliance on intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, and data center growth, highlighting the urgency of increasing dispatchable energy output.”

The DOE’s report sets the stage for the department to continue to prevent the phase-out of old fossil fuel power plants and open new facilities. Many are skeptical of the agency’s logic, however, pointing to renewable-heavy grid success stories like Texas. The Department of Energy “appears to exaggerate the risk of blackouts and undervalue the contributions of entire resource classes, like wind, solar, and battery storage,” Caitlin Marquis, the managing director at Advanced Energy United, said, per Axios.

5. Trump threatens South Korea, Japan with 25% tariffs

On Monday, the Trump administration sent letters to 14 countries warning them they’ll face tariffs of up to 40% if they don’t reach a trade deal with the U.S. by an August 1 deadline. Significantly, automaking giants Japan and South Korea — which each account for about 4% of U.S. imports, per The New York Times — were among the recipients, and face 25% tariffs according to the letters. As my colleague Jael Holzman previously reported, Japan in particular had been “positioned to be an ally in U.S. efforts to wean off China-linked minerals and signed a minerals trade agreement under Biden,” with the imposition of such tariffs potentially threatening to tank America’s own “mineral supply chain renaissance.”

THE KICKER

Tom Nicholson/Getty Images

The Seine River opened for swimming last weekend for the first time since 1923, following an extensive effort to upgrade the city’s sewer systems and water treatment facilities. “I never imagined being in the water close to the Eiffel Tower,” one swimmer told Reuters.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Climate

AM Briefing: Trump’s Top Energy Democrat

On a billion-dollar mineral push, the north’s grim milestones, and EV charging’s comeback

Trump Names a Democrat as FERC Chief
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Southeastern U.S. is facing flash floods through the end of Thursday • Temperatures in Fez, Morocco, are forecast to hit 108 degrees Fahrenheit • Wildfires continue to rage across southern Europe, sending what Spain’s environment minister called a “clear warning” of the effects of climate change.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump names Democrat as new FERC chief

President Donald Trump on Wednesday named David Rosner, a centrist Democrat, as the new chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Since joining the commission in June 2024, Rosner focused the panel on the nation’s growing electricity demand from data centers and pushed for greater automation of the engineering process to connect power plants to the continent’s various grid systems. “Getting grid interconnection moving faster is essential to ensuring reliability,” Rosner told E&E News in March. “We’re starting to learn about these new tools and platforms that just make this work faster, smarter, saves us time, solves the reliability and affordability problems that are facing the country.”

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Donald Trump.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

President Trump has had it in for electric vehicle charging since day one. His January 20 executive order “Unleashing American Energy” singled out the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program by name, directing the Department of Transportation to pause and review the funding as part of his mission to “eliminate” the so-called “electric vehicle mandate.”

With the review now complete, the agency has concluded that canceling NEVI is not an option. In an ironic twist, the Federal Highway Administration issued new guidance for the program on Monday that not only preserves it, but also purports to “streamline applications,” “slash red tape,” and “ensure charging stations are actually built.”

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
Electric Vehicles

AM Briefing: The Energy Department’s Advanced Nuclear Dream

On Sierra Club drama, OBBB’s price hike, and deep-sea mining blowback

Energy Department Backs 11 Advanced Nuclear Projects
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Tropical Erin is expected to gain strength and make landfall in the Caribbean as the first major hurricane of the season, lashing islands with winds of up to 80 miles per hour and 7 inches of rain • More than 152 fires have broken out across Greece in the past 24 hours alone as Europe battles a heatwave • Typhoon Podul is expected to make landfall over southeastern Taiwan on Wednesday morning, lashing the island with winds of up to 96 miles per hour.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Energy Department selects 11 nuclear projects for pilot program

The Department of Energy selected 11 nuclear projects from 10 reactor startups on Tuesday for a pilot program “with the goal to construct, operate, and achieve criticality of at least three test reactors” by next July 4. The Trump administration then plans to fast-track the successful technologies for commercial licensing. The effort is part of the United States’ attempt at catching up with China, which last year connected its first high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to the grid. The technologies in the program vary among the reactors selected for the program, with some reactors based on Generation IV designs using coolants other than water and others pitching smaller but otherwise traditional light water reactors. None of the selected models will produce more than 300 megawatts of power. The U.S. hopes these smaller machines can be mass produced to bring down the cost of nuclear construction and deploy atomic energy in more applications, including on remote military bases, and even, as NASA announced last week, the moon.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow