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With continued subsidies a big “if” going into next year, deep-pocketed purchasers will have outsized impact.

As Donald Trump prepares to take office (again), the future of the tax policy that underlies clean energy development in the United States has never been more in doubt. Will the clean energy tax credits survive? What about advanced manufacturing? Or will it just be the electric vehicle credits that get tossed aside?
In any case, one thing seems far closer to certain: Big companies, especially large technology companies, will continue to buy renewable and clean power to fulfill their own sustainability goals and keep up their massively expanding data center operations. For them, speed may be the thing that matters most, and reasonable costs and carbon abatement will have to come along with it.
From 2025 to 2028, Morgan Stanley estimates that there will be 57 gigawatts worth of demand from new data centers, with around 6 gigawatts of that currently under construction, and a substantial shortfall in available power to build everything hyperscale technology companies want. This means that there will be a huge need to buy power, no matter the tax credit situation, which would mean continued upward pressure on prices.
Even before the election, power purchase agreement prices for solar power were creeping up due to tariffs on solar equipment, according to LevelTen Energy. Those will likely be maintained and could be ramped up in the new administration.
“Repeal of the tech neutral tax credits and of the manufacturing production tax credits has the potential to increase PPA prices by almost 40%,” Nidhi Thakar, the senior vice president for policy of the Clean Energy Buyers Association, told me, referring to two of the most powerful provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. She added that repeal would “essentially have an inflationary effect.”
“We have this opportunity right now to capture that economic development if we do things right,” Thakar said. “That is going to require having critical policies in place that are going to support the deployment of more clean firm resources on the grid.”
At least so far, the prospect of repeal has not slowed energy procurement among the biggest buyers. This month, Alphabet announced a $20 billion investment plan with Intersect Power and TPG to build carbon-free power near datacenters with the hope of bringing power and data centers online more quickly. Meta, meanwhile, announced earlier in December that it would build a $10 billion data center campus in Northeast Louisiana, complete with gas and renewable power provided by Entergy, the local utility. The project will come with “at least” 1.5 gigawatts of new renewable power, Entergy said; it also filed an application with the Louisiana utilities regulator for over 2 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants, including two plants adjacent to the data center site, according to S&P Global Commodities Insights.
While a “double digit” increase in power purchase agreement sale prices could result from tax credits vanishing, there is still “more demand for renewable energy than supply for a whole bunch of reasons,” Peter Freed, the former director of energy strategy at Meta and the founding director of the consultancy Near Horizon Group, told me.
“Obviously the tax credits are pretty central to the pricing on projects,” he said.
Freed was enthusiastic about grid technologies that could enhance capacity, but he also acknowledged “it is very likely we’re going to have a variety of compromises that have to be made over the course of next seven, eight, nine years, in terms of how we’re going to accommodate load that’s coming in the cleanest possible way.”
“That probably means we’re seeing more gas built,” he added.
A significant portion of that gas could be built on-site. Anything involving the grid — whether fossil or renewable — involves large investments of cash and time for hyperscalers and developers. “Given the increasing time required to connect to power grids, especially in the U.S., we believe there could be more upcoming ‘off grid’ approaches to powering data centers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd wrote in a note to clients. “Batteries and smaller gas-fired turbines could be combined with large combined cycle natural gas turbines to provide a robust power source.”
Elon Musk’s xAI has done this the quick-and-dirty way by installing mobile natural gas generators to power its facility in Memphis. GE Vernova, the turbine manufacturer, is also “having direct conversations with hyperscalers for gas orders,” according to Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith in a note to clients, with the first order from a hyperscaler possibly coming in the second half of next year.
Gas isn’t the only answer, however — at least not on its own. A group of energy researchers from Stripe, Paces, and Scale Microgrids, wrote in a white paper published mid-December saying that solar microgrids could provide a “fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough” option for data center power.
These “off-grid solar microgrids” could potentially be put into operation in “around two years” and would combine solar panels, batteries, and some natural gas backup. Installed across the Southwest, they would be able to power some 1,200 gigawatts of data center demand with 90% solar power, according to Scale Microgrids’ Duncan Campbell, at costs below repowering Three Mile Island. A 44% solar system would be “essentially the same cost” as off-grid gas turbines, the whitepaper said.
No matter what solution hyperscalers pursue — bringing their own power behind the grid, locating near power on the grid, or building out more clean, firm power on local grids — the question will ultimately always be how fast they can get online.
“I think people are initially thinking about colocating a large load with a project — renewable, gas, or anything else — as a fact track to getting load online, and there’s some truth to that,” Freed told me.
“My perspective as someone who is adding new load is that you should be indifferent to location for generation,” Freed said. “What you really should be caring about is when you can interconnect and turn lights on at the scale you desire.”
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The July 4 heat wave showed just how far the metropolis has to go to reach its decarbonization goals.
New York City’s decarbonization plan has stalled. The events of this year’s Fourth of July weekend all but prove it.
The temperature in the city reached as high as 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, July 2, the hottest it’s been here in 14 years. As New Yorkers blasted their air conditioners to stay cool, utilities drew on all of New York’s resources to serve the resulting electricity demand for cooling. These included a fleet of dual-fuel power plants, which can burn both oil and natural gas and encompasses many of its peakers, which turn on to deal with spikes of demand.
Those dual-fuel plants pushed over 10 gigawatts of electricity onto the grid on the evening of July 1— about a third of the total load in the state — and hit similar peaks on the 2nd and 3rd. The peaker fleet owned and operated by the New York Power Authority was operational for over two-thirds of the heat wave, which persisted for four consecutive days, while some ran nonstop from 7 a.m. July 2 to 3 a.m. July 4, according to NYPA.
In response to questions about the use of its peakers during the heat wave, a NYPA spokesperson told me, “During times of peak energy demand, like last week’s heat wave, the state’s independent grid operator called upon NYPA’s Small Natural Gas Power Plants to run well beyond their typical usage to meet high energy needs and prevent localized blackouts.”
While specific generator information is a protected trade secret, they said, “capacity suppliers are critical resources to meet system peak loads like those experienced during the recent heatwave.”
And yet still, over 100,000 people lost power during the heat wave. Real-time electricity prices in the area of the New York grid that includes the city got as high as $1,465 per megawatt-hour on the evening of July 3, according to data collected by Grid Status.
At the same time, the latest addition to New York’s non-carbon electricity generation fleet, a transmission line from Quebec that can transmit up to 1,250 megawatts known as the Champlain Hudson Power Express, was struggling. It experienced an unplanned outage on July 1, the first day of the heat wave, followed by a second outage beginning on July 4 that still had not been resolved as of Friday.
Since 2014, the city has had an aspirational goal of reducing emissions by 80% of its 2005 levels by 2050. CHPE was a major part of that plan, which also included offshore wind and utility-scale solar. There has been progress: Of the 1,000 megawatts of solar the city aims to have installed by 2030, about two thirds have been built. Even so, about 90% of New York City’s electricity came from fossil fuels in 2025, according to the city’s comptroller.
Why the difficulty decarbonizing? Blame a mixture of policy and geography. New York City is dense and has a lot of old buildings with old heating systems. Reducing consumption of fossil fuels requires getting cars off the road (congestion pricing) and retrofitting buildings with electric appliances (Local Law 97).
But that’s the demand side — the supply side is far trickier. Utility-scale non-carbon-emitting power on the orders of hundreds of megawatts or a gigawatt will have to be built elsewhere and piped in via transmission lines. That means offshore wind, solar (ideally with battery storage), and maybe one day nuclear power.
To the extent New York City can build solar and storage locally, it means dealing with a thicket of building regulations and local opposition. Efforts to shut down or replace peaker plants in the city have run into a brick wall at the New York Independent System Operator, which has declared that at least some peakers will have to stay online through the end of the decade to maintain system-wide reliability.
The only other new source of carbon-free power currently under construction is the offshore wind project Empire Wind, due to come online in 2027. NYISO said last year that without CHPE, Empire, and two local transmission projects planned to enter service by 2030, New York City would be “deficient in the summer” through 2030.
Of course developers have scrapped several other offshore wind projects over the years, whether due to problems procuring the right size turbine or the Trump administration buying out their lease. And though New York Governor Kathy Hochul pledged last summer to develop at least a gigawatt of new nuclear capacity in the northern region of the state, that is probably a decade away from fruition.
Meanwhile the Clean Path transmission line, which was meant to connect New York City to several gigawatts of new wind, solar and hydropower, saw its contracts canceled in late 2024 as its projected costs continued to rise. Last year, utility regulators shut down an effort by the state-run New York Power Authority to take it over as a “priority transmission project,” questioning whether it was “needed expeditiously” to meet downstate reliability needs and arguing that the project “will not be needed to serve substantial amounts of generation until well after 2033, and possibly not until 2040.”
While the city has some utility-scale battery storage systems, would-be developers have faced intense local opposition. Fullmark Energy, for instance, scrapped a planned 650-megawatt storage project after protests from political figures, including frequent mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa. A dispute over another battery storage project in Queens has escalated into accusations of assault leveled by Councilmember Phil Wong, who called for a criminal investigation into what he said was an assault by a contractor for a project against his staffer.
So what’s left for New York City to do?
Any near-term progress will likely come from increasing efficiency and adding marginal generation capacity, as opposed to large-scale new projects and decommissioning of power plants.
“We need to max out our energy efficiency gains from Local Law 97,” former New York City Chief Climate Policy Advisor Daniel Zarelli told me, referring to a 2019 law mandating steep reductions in emissions from large buildings in the city, which came into effect two years ago. He also called for a further“push on batteries and behind the meter solar, clean energy, and energy efficiency.”
Already across the state, behind-the-meter solar is shaving off peak power demand. On the afternoon of July 2, behind-the-meter solar accounted served about 4.5 gigawatts to users, according to NYISO and Grid Status data.
Going forward, Zarelli said, the city should use its purchasing and planning power — as it did with CHPE — for projects like resurrecting Clean Path. “We need to be starting now. Maybe it’s not by 2030, but soon after we could be getting the benefit of that.”
“Battery developers started to see interconnection costs that were around 30 or 40 times what is standard,” Patrick Robbins, director of the Utility Customers Association told me. “It just means that new battery projects completely don’t pencil out and so we have a de facto moratorium on new [battery] projects.”
Advocates for solar and storage have blamed Con Edison for the city’s slow progress there, claiming that changes in the interconnection process have made it essentially cost prohibitive for battery storage developers to move forward on new projects.
Some of these fights have landed in front of New York’s Public Service Commission. In a filing, the city cited data from Con Edison showing that “the interconnection costs for some projects … have increased by thousands of percent,” citing one project whose interconnection costs jumped from $640,000 to over $35 million due to changes in how Con Edison attributed grid costs from new projects.
"Battery storage is essential to New York's clean energy future, and Con Edison strongly supports the development of energy storage when projects are deployed at the right locations, at the appropriate scale, and with operating parameters that provide the greatest benefit to customers and the electric grid,” a Con Edison spokesperson told me. “Because grid constraints vary across our system — from neighborhood‑level distribution lines to major transmission corridors — the location of a battery ultimately determines how much benefit it can deliver to the grid and to customers.”
There were 115 megawatts of battery storage operational in New York City at the end of last year, according to Con Edison, and 865 megawatts of projects with interconnection agreements. Peak load in the region is about 10,000 megawatts, meaning that these new projects would meaningfully alter the way the utility serves its customers.
Con Edison has claimed in a regulatory filing that the concentration of projects could lead to “significant impacts from BESS charging on infrastructure upstream of primary feeders,” necessitating the changes to its interconnection process. The city claimed in its filing that the added cost has “understandably chilled ongoing development activity at a time when New York City needs more supply resources capable of serving peak demand.”
When I reached out to the Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice about the dispute, I received a statement in return from New York City Chief Climate Officer Louise Yeung: “Expanding battery storage capacity will be critical to New York City’s clean energy future, as extreme climate events continue to strain our grid system,” she said. “The City is working across agencies and communities to ensure battery energy storage projects are deployed safely and can provide reliable power when New Yorkers need it most.”
As for residential solar and storage, it will likely take years for those distributed resources to become a regular part of New York City’s energy landscape. There’s only one fully permitted and approved residential storage system allowed in New York City, which was installed earlier this year by Brooklyn Solar Works. Negotiating approvals with city agencies including the Department of Buildings and the New York City Fire Department took around six years, the company’s vice president of sales, Steve Nelson, told me.
“It’s New York City. We’re expecting there to be some level of bureaucracy and some lift to get that stuff approved,” Nelson said. “But what we also lack is a ready, readily accessible residential battery that meets the criteria that these departments have set.”
All that adds up to both a practical and a political gap for decarbonization, Zarelli told me.
“Batteries are a great way to connect the climate agenda and the affordability agenda, and it’s in the mayor’s control — it’s the regulatory apparatus at FDNY,” he said. “That’s a big near-term play that I think would make a big difference.”
Earlier this year, New York City Councilmember James Gennaro introduced a bill to amend the fire code to relax some battery storage permitting and safety requirements. But that still leaves the city’s decarbonization advocates with many big fish to fry.
“It’s a challenging future that’s still out in front of us, and how to navigate that is really difficult. But it’d be good if we were actually aligned on what our goals were as a society,” Zarelli said.
Rates were up 17% year over year in June, according to the latest Electricity Price Hub update, with another increase on the way.
With higher temperatures come higher electricity bills. Whether through higher seasonal charges or greater usage, Americans across the country were paying more for electricity in June.
In Virginia, the epicenter of the data center boom, the typical household electricity bill was $192 in June, up from $172 in June of last year, according to the latest data from the Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub. Rates, meanwhile, were about 18 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared to just over 15 cents in June of last year, a 12% hike. Rates were also up from the end of last year, when they were about 15.5 cents.
The rate increase is largely due to prices set by Virginia’s largest utility, Dominion. Its rates are up 8% so far this year, according to MIT researchers, and 17% over the past 12 months, the result of a base rate increase that took effect at the beginning of the year. The average base rate alone is up 7.5% year over year for the average Dominion customer.
But that’s not all: The fuel portion of the bill is rising $8 a month for the typical customer, Dominion said according to local media reports, as a result of rising costs. The fuel charge went into effect at the beginning of July. Already, Dominion customers are paying about $78 per month for the generation portion of their electricity bill, according to Heatmap-MIT data.
The price hike will likely increase pressure on Dominion as it seeks to sell itself to Florida utility and energy developer NextEra in a $67 billion deal announced in May.
Earlier this week, Virginia's lieutenant governor Ghazala Hashmi sent a detailed letter to the State Corporation Commission, Virginia’s utility regulator, with 64 questions about the proposed merger. She said the deal “carries unprecedented implications for Virginia’s consumers and regulatory landscape.”
Hashmi asked regulators to extend their review of the deal beyond the six-month period mandated by its utility regulations, writing that “forcing this process into the six-month timeline will render an already inadequate period completely unworkable.”
In May, when the deal was announced, NextEra said it would provide over $2 billion of bill credits over two years to Dominion customers in Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, which Dominion executives estimated would add up to $10 per month over the two years.
On the India-Australia uranium deal, a U.S. general’s warning, and Chicago’s VPP
Current conditions: China and Taiwan are bracing for Super Typhoon Bavi to make landfall as possibly the strongest storm either country has faced in years • Utah’s Babylon fire has torched at least 103,000 acres already, and was just 25% contained as of this morning • New York City faces flooding as the thunderstorms that began yesterday continue into Saturday.

When the heat dome roasting the Eastern United States hit a peak last week, I told you that PJM Interconnection could hardly keep up with its own forecasts for demand. While the nation’s largest power grid operator had projected summertime demand for electricity would top out at 156 gigawatts, analysts last week predicted PJM’s load during the heat wave would hit the all-time record set in 2006 of just under 166 gigawatts. On July 2, it far surpassed even that: The 13-state grid set a new all-time system record of more than 168 gigawatts of demand, the grid operator confirmed Thursday. Wind and solar played major roles in supplying the power needed to avoid blackouts. “Solar, wind, and demand-side solutions showed up in a big way during this heatwave to keep the lights on and homes cool,” Jon Gordon, a senior director at the industry group Advanced Energy United, said in a statement. “Deploying more of these solutions, as well as energy storage, would help PJM avoid needing to call on so many expensive and dirty backup diesel generators and peaker units in the future.”
The milestone comes as PJM is scrambling to rewrite its rules, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin has covered, to figure out how to bring more generation online and allow more large power users such as data centers to patch onto the system.
Fervo Energy just drilled another well for its flagship Cape Station project in Utah. This one, as Matthew wrote yesterday, is 19,448 feet deep, includes a 7,500-foot lateral span underground, and took just 21 days to drill. While that time matches the same number of days the project’s Phase I wells required, this one is, on average, nearly 35% deeper, with a 50% wider lateral extension. “Today, we are drilling deeper, hotter wells that will produce multiples more [megawatts] per well than our Project Red pilot, and we are doing it in a fraction of the time,” CEO Tim Latimer said in a statement.
In the race to build out more nuclear power, China is far and away in first place, with more than three dozen reactors under construction. Trailing in second is India, with about half a dozen. But New Delhi wants more, as evidenced by last winter’s legal reform to open the subcontinent’s atomic power industry to exports for the first time in nearly decades, which I told you about back in December. Unlike other countries that build first and find fuel later, India is devoid of major uranium reserves, which is partly why its government is so keen on thorium fuel. Until that works out, however, New Delhi is locking down other supplies. On Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inked a deal with the Australian government to increase India’s imports of uranium. The agreement, signed in Melbourne yesterday morning, does not specify the volumes of metal India plans to import. The deal’s significance goes beyond just reactor fuel. India is infamously one of the biggest countries to refuse to sign the global Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and in fact was the first nation to develop an atomic weapon after the pact was agreed among most countries on Earth. Australia, a major uranium miner, previously refused to sell fuel to any country that wasn’t a signatory to the treaty. But Canada eased its rules to ink a uranium deal with India in March. While the Associated Press noted that Australia’s “leaders historically ruled out” such a deal with New Delhi, “Canberra’s position has eased.”
In the U.S., meanwhile, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission this week continued its regulatory overhaul efforts by proposing the biggest changes to how the agency applies the National Environmental Policy Act in years. Under the new NEPA rule, the NRC would streamline permitting, eliminate the need to submit a draft of a project’s environmental impact statement, and add new exemptions to conducting environmental reviews.
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The series of equity deals President Donald Trump struck with individual mining companies to bolster the U.S. government’s portfolio of domestic producers of critical minerals certainly made members of the Biden administration jealous. But the U.S. Army’s former chief operating officer says a huge policy gap remains. Speaking on a podcast from The Northern Miner, Flynn, who previously commanded the U.S. Army Pacific, suggested Trump’s approach was too piecemeal. “One of the central problems is we tend to fund a mine, a processor, or a technology as a standalone project versus trying to pull a consortium of projects together, a consortium of companies and leaders together, that combine skilled workers, equipment, metallurgists, transportation needs, and customers,” Flynn said, hanging on that last word in an apparent attempt to emphasize the “Trump mineral paradox” I was telling you about yesterday. “I’m not sure that’s what our plan is.” He added that he’s “being critical now” because mining projects require five- to 10-year funding commitments. “This is what China did to build their system out,” he said. “That’s what they did a number of years ago. We’re almost taking a page out of their book.”
The proposal Chicago’s utility Commonwealth Edison put out for a battery-based “scheduled dispatch virtual power plant” has won state approval. On Wednesday, Utility Dive reported that the Illinois Commerce Commission gave the company the green light last week to replace the more limited VPP proposal the ComEd pitched last year, which was scrapped after the state passed legislation to support the expansion of battery storage capacity across northern Illinois. The new VPP program “is an important step in bolstering the potential of customer-sited energy resources to make the grid more resilient during periods of peak demand while helping customers receive additional value for their support at a time when supply costs are rising,” Andrew Plenge, ComEd’s vice president of strategy and energy policy, said in a press release. The VPP is poised to go live next year.
Hyundai is so committed to developing clean hydrogen that the South Korean automaker is now building America’s leading green steel project in Louisiana. But if skeptics of the fuel think that’s billions of dollars thrown in the toilets, just wait until they hear about the company’s newest facility. On Thursday, Hydrogen Insight reported that the company had opened its HTWO Energy Cheongju plant at a public waste treatment facility with the goal of producing 500 kilograms of hydrogen per day from sewage sludge broken down in an anaerobic digester and refined through two additional processes. “At a time when energy security is important, this is significant in that it establishes a system for directly producing and supplying energy using urban infrastructure,” Lee Ho-hyun, second vice-minister of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment, said in a statement.