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On solar breakthroughs, IRA delays, and the magic of mature forests
Current conditions: Another tropical storm is brewing in the Atlantic and could bring more devastation to the Caribbean • In North Korea, Kim Jong Un has been visiting victims of recent catastrophic floods • July was California’s hottest month on record.
About 40% of the largest manufacturing projects made possible through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act are delayed or paused, according to an investigation from the Financial Times. Some of the projects facing delays are a $1.3 billion lithium refinery in South Carolina, a $1 billion solar panel factory in Oklahoma, and LG Energy Solution’s $2.3 billion battery storage facility in Arizona. The companies point to a combination of factors, including overproduction of clean tech from China, macroeconomic pressures, policy confusion, and a drop in EV demand. “Everybody’s running into higher-than-expected costs just because of labor and supply chain,” said Craig MacFarland, mayor of Casa Grande, Arizona, where a semiconductor facility has been delayed by two years. The IRA marks its second anniversary this Friday.
Large wildfires are raging on the outskirts of Athens in Greece, turning the skies an eerie shade of brown and prompting evacuations of at least 11 towns and several hospitals. More than 670 firefighters have been deployed to tackle blazes north of the capital city. Forty new fires ignited yesterday alone, and half the country is under a high-risk fire warning. Drought-stricken Greece is in the grips of its hottest summer ever recorded, and other parts of Europe are sweltering, too.
This year’s COP29 global climate summit in Azerbaijan is expected to draw a smaller crowd than last year’s event in Dubai, according toPolitico. Businesses are “wary of the event’s location and logistics, the oil-evangelizing autocratic regime running it and, perhaps most notably, the prospect of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election just days before the November summit begins.” Anticipation is already growing for next year’s event in Brazil, where countries will be expected to submit their new and updated climate plans, or nationally determined contributions, which will outline how they plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. In an article published today, the World Economic Forum insisted this year’s summit in Baku remains relevant because it will determine new goals for climate finance, and could finalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets out how countries can use international carbon markets. “With a nationally determined contribution update on the horizon, achieving a robust outcome at COP29 is critical to send a strong signal of progress,” the WEF post said.
Researchers at Oxford University have created a new solar power-generating material that “is thin and flexible enough to apply to the surface of almost any building or common object.” The new perovskite film, which Tina Casey at CleanTechnicacalled a “paint-on solar cell,” matches the energy efficiency performance of a traditional single-layer silicon PV and is almost 150 times thinner than a modern silicon wafer. Could this replace silicon-based solar panels altogether? Not anytime soon, Casey wrote, but it could turn almost anything into a solar surface. “We can envisage perovskite coatings being applied to broader types of surfaces to generate cheap solar power, such as the roofs of cars and buildings and even the backs of mobile phones,” said Dr. Junke Wang, a Marie Skłodowska Curie Actions Postdoc Fellow at Oxford University Physics. “If more solar energy can be generated in this way, we can foresee less need in the longer term to use silicon panels or build more and more solar farms.”
Mature trees appear to be able to respond to higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by increasing the amount of the greenhouse gas they can absorb. In a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers observed that a group of 180-year-old oak trees exposed to elevated CO2 emissions over a seven-year period made about 10% more woody biomass than trees that didn’t experience the emissions rise. The added wood locks away the gas for decades. The study is only about half-way done and will continue through 2031, but the researchers hope the initial results demonstrate the power of mature forests to act as a natural climate solution. “This is evidence in favor of careful management of established forests,” said Rob MacKenzie, director of Birmingham Institute of Forest Research and one of the study’s authors. “The old forest is doing a huge amount of work for us. What we definitely should not be doing is cutting it down.”
“Certainly, neither despair nor complacency is any use to us. Conversely however, both acceptance and optimism are functionally necessary. Acceptance of our current circumstances is a precondition of effective action in the reality we actually inhabit, whilst hope that liveable futures are possible remains a precondition of necessary effort to bring them about.” –Jamie Bristow and Rosie Bell writing about navigating the messy middle paths of climate breakdown at DeSmog.
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Almost half of developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
The solar energy industry has a big farm problem cropping up. And if it isn’t careful, it’ll be dealing with it for years to come.
Researchers at SI2, an independent research arm of the Solar Energy Industries Association, released a study of farm workers and solar developers this morning that said almost half of all developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
Unveiled in conjunction with RE+, the largest renewable energy conference in the U.S., the federally-funded research includes a warning sign that permitting is far and away the single largest impediment for solar developers trying to build projects on farmland. If this trend continues or metastasizes into a national movement, it could indefinitely lock developers out from some of the nation’s best land for generating carbon-free electricity.
“If a significant minority opposes and perhaps leads to additional moratoria, [developers] will lose a foot in the door for any future projects,” Shawn Rumery, SI2’s senior program director and the survey lead, told me. “They may not have access to that community any more because that moratoria is in place.”
SI2’s research comes on the heels of similar findings from Heatmap Pro. A poll conducted for the platform last month found 70% of respondents who had more than 50 acres of property — i.e. the kinds of large landowners sought after by energy developers — are concerned that renewable energy “takes up farmland,” by far the greatest objection among that cohort.
Good farmland is theoretically perfect for building solar farms. What could be better for powering homes than the same strong sunlight that helps grow fields of yummy corn, beans and vegetables? And there’s a clear financial incentive for farmers to get in on the solar industry, not just because of the potential cash in letting developers use their acres but also the longer-term risks climate change and extreme weather can pose to agriculture writ large.
But not all farmers are warming up to solar power, leading towns and counties across the country to enact moratoria restricting or banning solar and wind development on and near “prime farmland.” Meanwhile at the federal level, Republicans and Democrats alike are voicing concern about taking farmland for crop production to generate renewable energy.
Seeking to best understand this phenomena, SI2 put out a call out for ag industry representatives and solar developers to tell them how they feel about these two industries co-mingling. They received 355 responses of varying detail over roughly three months earlier this year, including 163 responses from agriculture workers, 170 from solar developers as well as almost two dozen individuals in the utility sector.
A key hurdle to development, per the survey, is local opposition in farm communities. SI2’s publicity announcement for the research focuses on a hopeful statistic: up to 70% of farmers surveyed said they were “open to large-scale solar.” But for many, that was only under certain conditions that allow for dual usage of the land or agrivoltaics. In other words, they’d want to be able to keep raising livestock, a practice known as solar grazing, or planting crops unimpeded by the solar panels.
The remaining percentage of farmers surveyed “consistently opposed large-scale solar under any condition,” the survey found.
“Some of the messages we got were over my dead body,” Rumery said.
Meanwhile a “non-trivial” number of solar developers reported being unwilling or disinterested in adopting the solar-ag overlap that farmers want due to the increased cost, Rumery said. While some companies expect large portions of their business to be on farmland in the future, and many who responded to the survey expect to use agrivoltaic designs, Rumery voiced concern at the percentage of companies unwilling to integrate simultaneous agrarian activities into their planning.
In fact, Rumery said some developers’ reticence is part of what drove him and his colleagues to release the survey while at RE+.
As we discussed last week, failing to address the concerns of local communities can lead to unintended consequences with industry-wide ramifications. Rumery said developers trying to build on farmland should consider adopting dual-use strategies and focus on community engagement and education to avoid triggering future moratoria.
“One of the open-ended responses that best encapsulated the problem was a developer who said until the cost of permitting is so high that it forces us to do this, we’re going to continue to develop projects as they are,” he said. “That’s a cold way to look at it.”
Meanwhile, who is driving opposition to solar and other projects on farmland? Are many small farm owners in rural communities really against renewables? Is the fossil fuel lobby colluding with Big Ag? Could building these projects on fertile soil really impede future prospects at crop yields?
These are big questions we’ll be tackling in far more depth in next week’s edition of The Fight. Trust me, the answers will surprise you.
Here are the most notable renewable energy conflicts over the past week.
1. Worcester County, Maryland –Ocean City is preparing to go to court “if necessary” to undo the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s approval last week of U.S. Wind’s Maryland Offshore Wind Project, town mayor Rick Meehan told me in a statement this week.
2. Magic Valley, Idaho – The Lava Ridge Wind Project would be Idaho’s biggest wind farm. But it’s facing public outcry over the impacts it could have on a historic site for remembering the impact of World War II on Japanese residents in the United States.
3. Kossuth County, Iowa – Iowa’s largest county – Kossuth – is in the process of approving a nine-month moratorium on large-scale solar development.
Here’s a few more hotspots I’m watching…
The most important renewable energy policies and decisions from the last few days.
Greenlink’s good day – The Interior Department has approved NV Energy’s Greenlink West power line in Nevada, a massive step forward for the Biden administration’s pursuit of more transmission.
States’ offshore muddle – We saw a lot of state-level offshore wind movement this past week… and it wasn’t entirely positive. All of this bodes poorly for odds of a kumbaya political moment to the industry’s benefit any time soon.
Chumash loophole – Offshore wind did notch one win in northern California by securing an industry exception in a large marine sanctuary, providing for farms to be built in a corridor of the coastline.
Here’s what else I’m watching …