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Obvious Ventures’ managing director makes his case.
Last month I wrote about potential overhype in the artificial intelligence space, asking a series of investors whether the hubbub around generative AI had current, tangible implications in the climate sphere. What I mostly heard was: Not yet. Many acknowledged that generative AI could plausibly do fundamental scientific research — creating new chemical and molecular formulations that could have broad implications for climate tech and beyond — but most didn’t think we were there yet.
Not everyone shares that perspective. Obvious Ventures, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm that focuses on the three pillars of planetary, human, and economic health, says it wants to invest in what it calls “generative science.” Today.
“While most venture dollars are chasing large language models for enterprise productivity, Obvious is funding large science models trained on chemistry, physics, and biology, to generate new scientific breakthroughs in decarbonization, biotech, materials science, and robotics,” James Joaquin, co-founder of the firm, said in a recent blog post titled “ Generative Science: Our Contrarian View of AI.”
There are some companies pursuing this lofty vision, especially in the pharmaceutical space, and Obvious has even invested in a few of them. But whether “generative science” is currently upending the AI and climate space is debatable. In an interview, Andrew Beebe, managing director at Obvious Ventures, walked me through why he’s so bullish on AI for climate.
“So computational biology and life sciences really, truly have been using machine learning for a long time,” Beebe told me. Of course, having a machine learning model that identifies patterns in reams of data is different from the type of “generative science” that could come up with new drugs, for example — but now one of Obvious Ventures’ earlier investments, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, has partnered with Nvidia to do just that. “That company uses AI to speed the drug discovery process. We have a number of companies where they are using similar concepts for proteomics and genomics, so that experience taught us that there are plenty of use cases where this can really apply,” Beebe told me.
The success of Recursion, which went public in 2021, has helped fuel the firm’s optimistic AI outlook, and it’s since made a number of investments at the intersection of AI and climate. Just a few weeks ago, Obvious led a $30 million round of Series B funding for Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, which also included cleantech VC Lowercarbon Capital, among others. The company analyzes swaths of geological data to help locate areas with optimal geothermal resources, creating maps and greatly expediting what can be a highly inefficient process.
“Smart geologists will drill 10 exploratory wells and get one to hit,” Beebe told me. Zanskar aims with its software to dramatically improve that hit rate, and though the company hasn’t provided performance metrics, Beebe said that if we could get closer to nine out of 10, “that changes everything. It changes the economics of traditional geothermal.”
The company also pulls in data such as power line capacity and land pricing to make its recommendations, “It will tell you this is where you should drill to be cost effective. Not just this is where the heat is.”
As useful as this is, though, Zanskar’s tech isn’t generative AI — it’s just a great use case for increasingly powerful predictive AI, in which machine learning models analyze patterns in large datasets to make forecasts and recommendations, in this case where to drill. Thus far, it seems, none of Obvious Ventures’ investments in the climate and AI space are yet fulfilling the ultimate promise of “generative science” as Joaquin characterized it. “Generative media has delivered us a printing press that can write its own words,” he wrote, “but generative science will deliver a more consequential lab bench that can create its own novel arrangements of atoms.”
Beebe sees other climate applications for generative AI, however, particularly for the electric grid. “Maybe the mother of all near future generative science in the climate space is just making the grid smart,” he told me. While Obvious hasn’t yet invested in the AI-enabled smart grid space, Beebe is excited about “agentic systems” that will be able to make autonomous decisions based on real-time supply and demand data. “A result of that might be, let’s take power out of this massive Form seasonal battery sitting up in Modesto and move it to Southern California. Let’s take this water and start pumping it up the hill” choices that, today, “are really not automated in any coordinated way across the system,” he said.
Beebe also thinks there’s big AI potential when it comes to battery chemistries and nuclear reactor designs. “I think that AI is going to help basically expand the edge of what is physically or scientifically possible because of the rate of iteration of different designs. They won’t be right every time, but they will help us get closer and closer to the estimate space. We will then feed back in that reinforcement learning and then it will become better next time,” he told me. “And then I think things like fusion reactor designs are further down the line.”
Again, Obvious hasn’t yet invested in companies actually utilizing AI in these ways, but Beebe is confident that the future is near. And some recent research in does provide reason for hope For example, AI research laboratory Google DeepMind collaborated with the Swiss Plasma Center to learn how to better control hydrogen plasma in nuclear fusion reactors, and Microsoft used its own AI platform to discover a battery material that could reduce lithium use by up to 70%.
Obvious thinks large language models have a space in the climate tech landscape, as well. Last month, the firm co-led the seed round for Halcyon, a company trying to improve access to energy market data via LLM-enhanced searches. It was founded by ex-Twitter employees alongside Nathaniel Bullard (formerly chief content officer at BloombergNEF and publisher of a renowned-in-niche-energy-circles annual decarbonization report).
“We call it NatGPT internally,” Beebe said. “What they’re really trying to do is build a automated consultative service for energy developers to help them figure out where to site power plants, how to think about where to site transmission lines, how to answer any questions that they have about the vast and complex world of accelerating decarbonization of the grid,” Beebe told me. “It’s all AI-based and effectively LLMs, for the most part.”
In summary, even if Obvious’s current investments aren’t quite yet creating “ the chemicals and molecules” to “help solve humanity’s toughest challenges” in the climate sphere, watch this space.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct statements about Zanskar’s accuracy.
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On GM eating the tariffs, California’s utility bills, and open-sourcing climate models
Current conditions: U.S. government forecasters are projecting hurricane season to ramp up in the coming weeks, with as many as nine tropical storms forming in the Caribbean by November • Southern Arizona is facing temperatures of up to 114 degrees Fahrenheit • Northeast India is experiencing extremely heavy rainfall of more than 8 inches in 24 hours.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said his agency is preparing to rewrite previously published National Climate Assessments, which have already been removed from government websites. In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Wright said the analyses “weren’t fair in broad-based assessments of climate change.” He added: “We’re reviewing them, and we will come out with updated reports on those and with comments on those reports.”
The former chief executive of the fracking company Liberty Energy, Wright once eschewed the outright rejection of climate science that other Trump administration officials espouse. But as the Environmental Protection Agency works to withdraw the legal finding that gave the federal government the right to regulate planet-heating emissions under the Clean Air Act, Wright has ratcheted up his rhetoric. Earlier this week, he claimed that “ceaseless repeating from the media, politicians and activists claiming that climate change is making weather more dangerous and severe is just nonsense.” In response, my colleague Robinson Meyer noted on X: “This is a new and big turn from Secretary Wright. I’ve been pretty careful to never call him a climate change denier because while his claims about the science have been incredibly opinionated, I could see the ‘true’ thing he was trying to say. But this is just brazenly wrong.”
Days after the Department of the Interior revoked a designation opening millions of acres off the United States’ shores to offshore wind, the agency on Thursday launched “a full review of offshore wind energy regulations to ensure alignment” with “America’s energy priorities under President Donald J. Trump.” The review aims to examine “financial assurance requirements and decommissioning cost estimates for offshore wind projects, to ensure federal regulations do not provide preferential treatment to unreliable, foreign-controlled energy sources over dependable, American-made energy,” according to the press release announcing the move.
This is just the latest in a series of actions the administration has taken targeting renewables, particularly wind. For more on Trump’s all-out war against America's biggest source of non-emitting energy, here’s my colleague Jael Holzman.
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The Chevrolet Bolt.Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
General Motors is preparing to import batteries from Chinese giant CATL despite steep tariffs imposed by Trump. The automaker is buying the batteries to power the second-generation Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle, in what The Wall Street Journal described as “a supply-chain Band-Aid for a company that touts extensive investments in U.S. battery manufacturing.”
The imports are meant to hold GM over for two years until the Detroit giant and its Korean partner LG Energy Solution can complete work on U.S. manufacturing sites to provide a domestic source of lower-cost batteries, according to Journal reporter Christopher Otts. GM’s EV sales surged in July following the introduction of the electric version of the popular Chevrolet Equinox SUV, in one of the brightest spots for the American EV market this summer.
California lawmakers are proposing a radical solution to curb rising electricity rates. Bills moving through the state’s legislature would use money raised from state bonds to help pay for the hugely expensive process of expanding the power grid and upgrading its equipment to better withstand wildfires, Canary Media’s Jeff St. John reported. The legislation would force the state’s big three utilities to accept public financing for a portion of the tens of billions of dollars they plan to spend on the power lines. The proposals come as steep rate hikes across the country become a political hot button ahead of next year’s midterm elections. As Robinson put it, “when you look across the power system, virtually every trend is setting us up for electricity price spikes.”
The sustainability data company Watershed announced a new partnership this morning with the Stanford Sustainable Solutions Lab to preserve the EPA’s model for carbon accounting. Dubbed “Cornerstone,” the project “will be a hub for open access” to software designed to assess Scope 3 emissions, the planet-heating pollution that comes from indirect downstream activities in a supply chain. “By combining the most trusted environmental data models and keeping them open to the world, we hope to help companies and organizations build and maintain momentum on sustainability,” Watershed’s co-founder Christian Anderson said in a statement. Wesley Ingwersen, the former EPA lead and architect behind the federal model, will serve as the initiative’s technical director.
The British government’s decision in May to hand back sovereignty over the Chagos Island to Mauritius more than two centuries after seizing the Indian Ocean archipelago and forcing out its residents to make way for a military base created a political uproar in the United Kingdom earlier this year. But British rule over the island chain yielded at least one major benefit beyond military defense. A new study found that the supersized Marine Protected Area the U.K. established in 2010 protected large ocean animals throughout much of their lifecycle. Scientists tracked sea turtles, manta rays and seabirds in the nearly 250,000-square-mile sanctuary. In total, 95% of tracking locations showed the area “is large enough to protect these wandering animals” which travel far to forage, breed and migrate. By contrast, the study from Exeter and Heriot-Watt universities found that seabirds in marine areas with smaller than 40,000 square miles “would be less well protected.”
Congressional Democrats will have to trust the administration to allow renewables projects through. That may be too big an ask.
How do you do a bipartisan permitting deal if the Republicans running the government don’t want to permit anything Democrats like?
The typical model for a run at permitting reform is that a handful of Republicans and Democrats come together and draw up a plan that would benefit renewable developers, transmission developers, and the fossil fuel industry by placing some kind of limit on the scope and extent of federally-mandated environmental reviews. Last year’s Energy Permitting Reform Act, for instance, co-sponsored by Republican John Barrasso and Independent Joe Manchin, included time limits on environmental reviews, mandatory oil and gas lease sales, siting authority for interstate transmission, and legal clarity for mining projects. That passed through the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee but got no further.
During a House hearing in July, California Representative Scott Peters, a Democrat, bragged that a bill he’d introduced with Republican Dusty Johnson to help digitize permitting had won support from both the Natural Resources Defense Council and the American Petroleum Institute — two advocacy groups not typically speaking in harmony. (He’s not the only one taking a crack at permitting reform, though: Another bipartisan House effort sponsored by House Natural Resources Committee chairman Bruce Westerman and moderate Maine Democrat Jared Golden would limit when National Environmental Policy Act-mandated reviews happen, install time limits for making claims, and restrict judicial oversight of the NEPA process.)
But unless Democrats trust the Trump administration to actually allow renewables projects to go forward, his proposal could be dead on arrival. Since the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, the executive branch has been on the warpath against renewables, especially wind. With the Trump administration’s blessing, OBBBA restricted tax credits for renewable projects, both by accelerating the phaseout timeline for the credits (projects have until July of next year to start construction, or until the end of 2027 to be placed in service) and by imposing harsh new restrictions on developers’ business relationships with China or Chinese companies. Mere days after he signed the final bill into law, Trump directed the Internal Revenue Service to write tougher guidance governing what it means to start construction, potentially narrowing the window to qualify still further.
“I think all of this fuzz coming out of the Trump administration makes trust among Democrats a lot harder to achieve,” Peters told me this week.
In recent weeks, Trump’s Department of the Interior has issued memos calling for political reviews of effectively all new renewables permits and instituting strict new land use requirements that will be all but impossible for wind developments to meet. His Department of Transportation, meanwhile, insinuated that the department under the previous administration had ignored safety concerns related to radio frequencies while instituting onerous new setback requirements for renewables development near roadways.
Peters acknowledged that bipartisan permitting reform may be a heavy lift for his fellow Democrats — “a lot of Democrats didn’t come to Congress to make permitting oil and gas easier,” he told me — but that considering the high proportion of planned projects that are non-emitting, it would still be worth it to make all projects move faster.
That said, he conceded that his argument “loses a lot of force” if none of those planned non-emitting projects that happen to be solar or wind can get their federal permits approved. “How can I even make a deal on energy unless I get some assurance that will be honored by the President?” Peters told me.
Other energy and climate experts broadly supportive of investment-led approaches to combatting climate change still think that Democrats should push on with a permitting deal.
“All of this raises the importance of a bipartisan Congressional permitting reform bill that contains executive branch discretion to deny routine permits for American energy resources,” Princeton professor and Heatmap contributor Jesse Jenkins posted on X. “Seems like there's a lot of reasons for both sides to ensure America's approach to siting energy resources doesn't keep ping-ponging back and forth every four years.”
But permitting reform supporters are aware of the awkward situation the president’s unilateral actions against renewables puts the whole enterprise in.
“The administration’s recent measures are suboptimal policy and no doubt worsen the odds of enacting a technology-neutral permitting reform deal,” Pavan Venkatakrishnan, an infrastructure fellow at the Institute for Progress, told me.
At the same time, he argued that Democrats should still try to seek a deal, pointing to the high demand for electrons of any type. Not even the Trump administration can entirely choke off demand for renewables, so permitting reform could still be worth doing to ensure that as much as can evade the administration’s booby traps can eventually get built.
“Projects remain at the mercy of a burdensome regulatory regime,” Venkatakrishnan said. “Democrats should remain committed to an ambitious permitting deal — the best way to reduce deployment timelines and costs for all technologies, including solar-and-storage.”
Venkatakrishnan also suggested that Democrats could, in a bipartisan deal, seek to roll back some of the executive branch actions, including the Interior memo subjecting wind and solar to heightened review or the executive order on the definition of “begin construction.” There would be a precedent for such an action — the 2024 Manchin-Barrasso permitting reform bill attempted to scrap the pause on liquified natural gas approvals that the Biden administration had implemented. But then of course, that didn’t ever become law. (Manchin and congressional Republicans were able to clear the way to permitting a specific project, the Mountain Valley Pipeline in a larger bipartisan deal.)
What could unlock a deal, Yogin Kothari, a former congressional staffer and the chief strategy officer of the SEMA Coalition, a domestic solar manufacturing group, told me, would be the Trump administration getting actively involved. “The administration is probably going to have to lead,” Kothari said. “It’s going to be up to folks in the administration to go to the Hill and say, We do need this, and this is what it’s going to mean, and we’re going to implement this in good faith.”
This would require a delicate balancing act — the Trump administration would have to think there’s enough in a deal for their favored energy and infrastructure projects to make it worth perhaps rolling back some of their anti-renewables campaign.
“The administration is going to have to convince Democrats that it’s not permitting reform just for a subset of industries,” i.e. oil, gas, and coal, “but it is really technology neutral permanent reform,” Kothari said. “On the Senate side, it comes down to whether seven Senate Democrats feel like they can trust the admin to actually implement things in a way that is helpful across the board for energy dominance.”
One reason the administration itself may have to make commitments is because Congressional Democrats may not trust Republicans to stand behind legislation they support and vote for, Peters told me.
“Obviously we’d have to get some face-to-face understanding that if we make a deal, they’re going to live by the deal,” he said.
Peters pointed to the handful of Republicans who successfully negotiated for a longer runway for renewable tax credits, only to see Trump move almost immediately to tighten up eligibility for those tax credits as reason enough for skepticism. He also cited the cuts to previously agreed-upon spending that the Trump administration pushed through Congress on a party line vote as evidence that existing law and deals aren’t necessarily stable in Trump’s Washington.
“If we do a deal — Republicans and Democrats in Congress, the House and Senate, get together and make an agreement — we have to have assurance that the President will back us,” Peters told me.
No bipartisan deal is ever easy to come by, but then historically, “everybody lives by it,” he said. “I think that may be changing under this administration, and I think it makes everything tougher.”
And more of the week’s most important conflicts around renewable energy.
1. Sussex County, Delaware – The Trump administration has confirmed it will revisit permitting decisions for the MarWin offshore wind project off the coast of Maryland, potentially putting the proposal in jeopardy unless blue states and the courts intervene.
2. Northwest Iowa – Locals fighting a wind project spanning multiple counties in northern Iowa are opposing legislation that purports to make renewable development easier in the state.
3. Pima County, Arizona – Down goes another solar-powered data center, this time in Arizona.
4. San Diego County, California – A battery storage developer has withdrawn plans to build in the southern California city of La Mesa amidst a broadening post-Moss Landing backlash over fire concerns.
5. Logan and McIntosh Counties, North Dakota – These days, it’s worth noting when a wind project even gets approved.
6. Hamilton County, Indiana – This county is now denying an Aypa battery storage facility north of Indianapolis despite growing power concerns in the region.