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On nuclear’s NEPA exemption, alumina, and Congolese collapse

Current conditions: A bomb cyclone dumped as much as 16 inches of snow on North Carolina, and more snow could come by midweek • Tampa, Florida, is seeing rare flurries, putting embattled citrus crops at risk • Sri Lanka is being inundated by intense thunderstorms as temperatures surge near 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
As the bomb cyclone bore down on the Southeastern United States with Arctic chills, Duke Energy sent out messages to its millions of customers in Florida and the Carolinas last night asking households to voluntarily turn down the power between certain hours on Monday to avoid blackouts on the grid. “Frigid temperatures are driving extremely high energy demand,” the utility said in a statement to its ratepayers in Florida. “As Florida continues to experience the coldest air in the state since 2018, Duke Energy is asking all customers to voluntarily reduce their energy use” from 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. EST on Monday. The company issued an identical message to customers in the Carolinas, except the window stretched from 4 a.m. to 10 a.m.
“Put simply, cold temperatures stress the grid,” my colleague Jeva Lange and Matthew Zeitlin wrote last week. “That’s because cold can affect the performance of electricity generators as well as the distribution and production of natural gas, the most commonly used grid fuel. And the longer the grid has to operate under these difficult conditions, the more fragile it gets.”
The Department of Energy just proposed exempting advanced nuclear reactors from carrying out reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act, marking yet another step the Trump administration is taking to speed up deployment of new atomic power technologies. Past environmental assessments have demonstrated “that any hazardous waste, radioactive waste, or spent nuclear fuel generated by the project can be managed” and “do not significantly affect the quality of the human environment.” The new categorical exclusion takes effect today, but the agency is taking public comments for the next 30 days and said it may revise the policy depending on the testimony it receives.
When Matthew wrote “everyone wants nuclear now” back in 2024, he was referring to the suddenly ubiquitous popularity of a once taboo energy source. But if you read those four words to instead convey a sense of urgency, you’d be accurately describing the state of affairs in 2026 as electricity demand rapidly eclipses incoming supply, as I wrote last week.
A Canadian company developing what it claims is one of the continent’s first major new sources of alumina, the processed version of bauxite needed to make aluminum, is set to move ahead with the project. The privately-owned Canadian Energy Metals said late last week that the $6.3 billion project contains an estimated 6.8 billion metric tons of alumina within a 230-square-mile stretch of the Prairie province of Saskatchewan. Canada ranks among the top global producers of primary aluminum, but its refineries and smelters rely on imports. The discovery the startup confirmed appears to be large enough to represent more than a third of known alumina globally. “We believe it’s very significant,” Christopher Hopkins, the chief executive at CEM, told The Wall Street Journal.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is taking stock of the value of friends in the fight to find critical minerals outside of China’s control. Trump officials are trying to rally consensus with allies on a pricing mechanism to boost long-term investments in mineral refining and mining. The effort is set to take place this week during meetings with dozens of foreign ministers in Washington. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg told Bloomberg he expects a lot of “momentum and excitement” toward “agreeing on a price mechanism that we can all coordinate together on in order to ensure price stability for people in the mineral refining and extraction business.”
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More than 200 people were killed last week when the Rubaya coltan mine in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed. Rubaya produces roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, a processed metal needed for electric vehicle batteries, pipelines, and gas turbines. The site, which Reuters said is staffed with locals who dig manually for a few dollars per day, has been under the control of the M23 rebel group since 2024. The actual death toll, which hasn’t been updated since its initial count last week, is likely even higher. The disaster offers a grim reminder of the brutal conditions in the mineral supply chains needed for the energy transition.

Things were already looking bad for Drax as the wood pellet energy giant faced mounting scrutiny over its pollution. Last week, I told you that Japan, one of the world’s largest markets burning wood pellets for electricity and heat, was souring on the energy source. Now a senior policy specialist at the company’s flagship biomass power station has spoken out about the accuracy of public statements the company made about where it was sourcing its wood. In theory, biomass energy could be low carbon if it uses wood that would otherwise rot and release the carbon trapped inside. But investigations into Drax previously found that the company was felling old-growth forests in the U.S. and Canada, the types of mature trees that absorb the most carbon through photosynthesis, calling its claims of carbon neutrality into question. Drax insisted that didn’t have even licenses to extract trees from such woodlands at all, meaning the company wasn't harvesting them, but the senior employee said that wasn’t true.
Past studies of polar bear of Svalbard found that the population declined when sea ice disappeared. But new research in the journal Scientific Reports based on hundreds of specimens of Ursus maritimus, discovered that the physical conditions of the bear population on the Norwegian Arctic island improved despite sea ice losses. Without sea ice, the bears were previously thought to struggle to hunt and grow thinner. But the authors suggested that the Svalbard bears may be recovering as populations of land-based prey that were previously over-hunted by humans, such as reindeer and walrus, returns.
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The problem isn’t just affordability, two researchers from Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub argue. Bill volatility also creates pain for electricity consumers.
Americans have come to expect shocking electricity bills, especially in the summer months. The latest data from the Electricity Price Hub makes clear: Households in every region of the country are seeing not just record high July bills, but also bills that are sharply higher than even just a few months before.
Some may see these trends and argue that utilities and regulators set rates, but bills are ultimately the result of consumer choices about how much electricity to use. But that narrative misses the mark for a simple reason: How utilities and regulators design rates influence both summer bill swings and how much electricity consumers use. Seasonal rates and other features of electricity pricing can exacerbate summer bill swings and inform customers’ decisions about whether certain electricity uses — even running the air conditioner on an extremely hot day — are worth it.
The scale of this summer’s electricity bill increases is striking. Nationwide, the average household electricity bill was $90 per month, or 71% higher in July than it was in April of this year. Not only are bills up, they are up from a high base. The national average bill in April 2026 was higher than any previous April average in the Electricity Price Hub data, and 37% higher than the national average in April five years ago.
These trends are not just driven by a few states. There are households in every corner of the country experiencing sharp increases in their power bills this summer.
At the state level, average household bills have increased the most in New Jersey (up 163%), Nevada (157%), and Oklahoma (133%), but bills have at least doubled in 11 states and are up 1.5 times in 24 more.
In 19 different states, average household bills from major utilities at least doubled from April to July, adding between $72 and $214 per month to their average customers’ bills. In 12 of those states — including some in the Northeast, Mountain West, South, and Southeast — more than 40% of all households are served by utilities whose average bills have at least doubled this summer.
Greater electricity use is a big part of what’s at play in these trends, but it’s not the whole story. Higher summer rates also contribute, in many cases. Rate design, market conditions, and regulatory processes can all cause electricity prices to change throughout the year.
Some utilities, for instance, have rates that vary seasonally, automatically adjusting in the summer months. Seasonal rates contribute to summer bill increases for eight of the 10 utilities whose average bill increased most from April to July. For three of those utilities, over half of the April-to-July increase was driven by seasonal rates. For another five, seasonal rates play a meaningful role, compounding usage-driven increases. For only two does the increase come back to usage alone.
Taken together, these findings suggest that summer bill shocks are not simply a function of warmer weather. In many cases, they also reflect deliberate choices about how utilities price electricity during the summer months.
Even where higher usage is the primary driver of rising summer bills, the way utilities structure rates influences how much customers can save by using less electricity or shifting when they consume power.
Across the utilities with the largest April-to-July bill increases, there is considerable variation in how they calculate a customer’s monthly bill. All include a mix of fixed monthly fees and charges based on usage, measured in dollars per kilowatt-hour. But the balance between these components differs significantly, with fixed charges contributing from 4% to 23% of average bills over the past 12 months. Some utilities apply the same per kilowatt-hour rate year-round, while others increase rates in the summer. For some, the same rate applies to the total amount of electricity customers use in a month, while others have rates that increase for higher tiers of usage.
That means the design of residential rates also determines how much households actually benefit from using less electricity. Two households may receive similar-sized bills, but depending on how their utilities structure their rates, customers can see very different savings from cutting back.
The three New Jersey utilities in the top 10 illustrate one approach: They all have relatively small fixed customer charges, along with per-kilowatt-hour rates that vary both seasonally and by usage tier. For example, Jersey Central Power & Light’s distribution charge shifts from a single volumetric charge in the winter to a tiered structure in the summer, with usage above 600 kilowatt-hours priced at a higher rate. This structure contributes to sizable seasonal bill swings, but it also creates a strong financial incentive to limit summer usage.
The average household in JCP&L’s service area used more than 1,000 kilowatt-hours in July 2025. Had that household used 15% less electricity, it would have saved roughly $50 that month; a 25% reduction would have saved $82. At current rates, a 25% reduction in usage would cut the average bill by 28%, and every 4 kilowatt-hour reduction in usage over 600 kilowatt-hours saves a dollar.
Nevada Power takes a different approach. Its residential rate consists of a larger fixed customer charge — contributing 14% of total average bills over the last year — and a set of volumetric rates that do not vary by season or usage level. As a result, consumers have less of a financial incentive to reduce consumption. A household would need to reduce usage by roughly 8.4 kilowatt-hours to save a dollar, and cutting electricity use by 25% would reduce the bill by about 23% — meaningfully less than under JCP&L's structure.
While seasonal variability in bills is expected and not on its face problematic, it is important to recognize that unpredictability and month-to-month volatility in power bills can compound energy affordability challenges. And although regulators cannot control the weather, the choices they make about rates influence the agency households have in managing their bills each month.
This then raises the question: Should utilities and regulators consider bill stability and its impact on affordability in setting rates? Staff for the Arizona Corporation Commission, which is currently considering requests from the state’s two investor-owned utilities to raise average household bills by around 15%, recently testified that “affordability and energy burden are not pertinent to ratemaking” — that they are, instead, “societal issues.” But that is exactly the wrong sentiment.
Affordability and bill stability both deserve to be explicit considerations in ratemaking, carefully weighed against other objectives and not dismissed or treated as an afterthought. Doing so may look different in different places and does not require prioritizing bill stability over all else. But where households are struggling to manage unpredictable power bills, regulators should be sensitive to those trends and lend greater weight to measures that boost households’ ability to manage usage and limit bills, should they choose to.
That may mean more effective and targeted energy efficiency and demand response programs and incentives for utilities to promote uptake. In some cases, it may call for better customer education on available rate schedules and ways to manage bills, and ultimately it may require more modern rate design. Whatever the response, stability is part of affordability. Wild bill swings add to the burden of record-high bills — a fact that utilities and regulators cannot afford to ignore.
On Trump’s mineral deals, the gas turbine backlog, and Turkic offshore wind
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Lala could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Hawaii’s Big Island, becoming the first such storm to make landfall there since 1900 • A glacial outburst at Suicide Basin near Juneau, Alaska, is raising the Mendenhall River • Temperatures surpassed 107 degrees Fahrenheit in Zaragoza, the inland capital of Spain’s Aragon region.

The United States is rapidly approaching a two-decade streak as the world’s No. 1 producer of natural gas. The country held the top spot between 2009 and 2024, the latest year for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has data. But America pumped record volumes of natural gas last year. And now the federal energy research agency forecasts 2026 will be another record year. Marketed natural gas production — the total volume that actually makes it to market, minus what’s burned off or leaks as waste — is set to reach an average of 122.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, up from 2025’s record of 118.5 billion cubic feet per day. The new milestone is the result of expanded drilling in the Permian region that straddles Texas and New Mexico, and in the Haynesville area, between Texas and Louisiana.
When the Trump administration first started buying up equity stakes in mining companies, former officials from the Biden administration told my colleague Matthew Zeitlin they were “jealous” that the Republican White House had the guts to try something novel to compete with China on the metals needed for defense and energy technologies. Now, however, top Democrats are asking federal watchdogs to probe whether the American taxpayer is actually getting good deals. New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich, the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Representative Jared Huffman, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, called on the Government Accountability Office to open an investigation into potential conflicts of interest. In a letter sent last week to Acting U.S. Comptroller General Orice Williams Brown and published Thursday on E&E News, the lawmakers accused the White House of violating rules to assess the financial risk of federal purchases. “These equity acquisitions also create potential conflicts of interest for federal agencies because a significant portion of the planned mining operations are located on federal lands,” they wrote. “With the executive branch now holding direct financial equity in these private mining operations, the federal government is required to act simultaneously as a mining investor and land-use regulator, an inherent conflict of interest.”
Mitsubishi’s backlog of orders for large-frame gas turbines is now more than twice its output from last year. In the 2025 fiscal year, the Japanese industrial giant delivered 16 gigawatts of gas turbines and had a backlog of 23 gigawatts. Just halfway through 2026, that backlog has ballooned to 35 gigawatts, executives told investors on the latest quarterly earnings call. The update, announced in Japan last week and covered in English by Utility Dive on Thursday, shows that “demand for large-frame gas turbines remains broadly in line with, or slightly above, the strong level we had anticipated,” Hiroshi Nishio,the chief financial officer of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Power electronics maker Heron Power, meanwhile, unveiled plans for a $100 million factory in Morgan Hill, California. The startup, led by a former Tesla executive, aims to produce next-generation transformers that can patch more solar panels and batteries on the grid and help ease some of the issues that arise from the direct current-based electricity sources. The first factory is designed to churn out 40 gigawatts of Heron Links, the transformer product, per year. “America's grid has to grow faster than it has in decades. We’re seeing new demand from AI and EVs, and at the same time new supply from solar and storage,” Drew Baglino, Heron Power’s chief executive and founder, said in a statement. “The equipment running the grid hasn’t changed in 50 years. Heron Factory One in Morgan Hill is how we fix that. We’re manufacturing the leapfrog technology our grid needs, at scale, in America first.”
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Offshore wind is in retreat in the U.S., where, as my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote this week, the Trump administration is paying billions to kill projects that were already dead or dying. The industry’s tide is also ebbing in Japan, where the new right-wing government of Sanae Takaichi is putting a heightened focus on nuclear power. Elsewhere, however, offshore wind is booming. Europe is only expanding its plans. China is steadily dominating the industry. And East Asian countries such as South Korea and Taiwan are expanding their sectors.
Now two of the richest countries in the Turkic world are laying plans for more offshore turbines. Turkey announced plans this week for its first offshore wind tender in the first quarter of 2027, Renewables Now reported. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, this week formally designated a 275-square-mile section of water in the Caspian Sea for offshore wind development, per offshoreWIND.biz. The moves highlight the extent to which the U.S. government stands alone in its view that offshore wind has no role in a modern electricity mix. Turkey, after all, is doubling its domestic production of gas and completing its first nuclear plant. Azerbaijan is famously rich in natural gas and produces a decent amount of hydropower. Yet both countries are still charging ahead on offshore wind.
Deep-sea mining isn’t yet technically legal in international waters. But the Trump administration isn’t waiting, creating the regulatory frameworks for domestic approvals and opening the area around one of America’s Pacific territories to exploration. Japan has been eager to follow suit. Now Washington and Tokyo are planning to meet “centuries’ worth of industrial demand” by establishing what Mining.com called the world’s deepest undersea mine in a bid to take on China’s mineral dominance. The mineral extraction would take place more than 1,000 miles southeast of Tokyo on an uninhabited speck of land called Minamitorishima, where Japanese scientists carried out tests pulling rare earths out of mineral-rich mud.
China is actively building more reactors at home than all other countries combined and singlehandedly restarted the race for novel technologies after hooking the world’s only commercial high-temperature gas-cooled reactors up to the grid in 2023. So far, Beijing’s two state-owned nuclear companies have remained focused on building light water reactors. Just one new high-temperature gas-cooled unit, designed to have more than twice the output of the first version, is currently underway at a facility where the fourth-generation, helium-cooled technology will be paired with third-generation, water-cooled reactors. Now the developer, the China National Nuclear Corporation, has made plans to procure a contract for the reactor for the first time, laying the groundwork for future deals to purchase units specifically designed to reach high temperatures. The “first concrete” for the plant is expected to be poured by the end of 2026, World Nuclear News reported.
Investment in zero-carbon energy and transportation surged this spring, driven by consumer EV and battery buying.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
Ready to be surprised? Clean energy and transportation investment surged in the second quarter of this year, rising to more than $75 billion in total, according to new data released earlier this week.
In fact, this spring was the second biggest quarter for U.S. clean investment in nominal terms since at least 2018, when data started to be kept. More than 5% of overall investment in the United States went into a clean energy or transportation industry.
That’s according to the Clean Investment Monitor, a joint project of the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research and the Rhodium Group, a private research firm. The monitor tracks nationwide investment across a number of sectors that make up the new electricity economy, including critical mineral refining, battery manufacturing, solar and wind installation, and electric vehicle and heat pump purchases by consumers (among other variables).
Outside of a promising headline number, the story is a mixed one. Investment in America’s clean manufacturing sector started growing again last quarter after falling for 18 months; it remains about 24% below where it was a year earlier, according to the project. The new growth came overwhelmingly from investment in the EV supply chain — defined as “critical minerals, batteries, vehicle assembly, and charging equipment” — driving a staggering 88% of all clean manufacturing investment. That subsector alone made up more than 9% of all U.S. clean investment.
The more interesting story — and what leaps out from the chart — is that retail activity drove the spring resurgence. High gasoline prices helped here, pushing consumers to buy all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in larger numbers. (Rivian, Tesla, and other automakers started to see an EV rebound last quarter, too, after Republicans ended EV incentives in 2025.) But the real boom came in residential batteries, which surged to an all-time high of $11 billion in quarterly sales. Consumer activity hasn’t made up such a large share of national clean investment since 2023.
This trend wasn’t just happening in the United States. We’ve talked a lot at Heatmap about whether the Strait of Hormuz crisis will drive a clean energy boom. But it's now clear the oil price shock really did encourage global EV adoption. Some 50 countries set new EV sales records in 2026’s second quarter, according to Kelley Blue Book. India, Brazil, and Australia all set record highs. That's a lot of demand destruction.