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On electrolyte factories, Josh Shapiro's flip, and Canadian clean power

Current conditions: Firefighters are encircling Belgium’s largest fire on record, just the latest blaze in Europe as historic heat waves roast the continent • The Canadian wildfire smoke that billowed into Michigan this summer cost the state nearly $6.7 billion • The string of storms that now includes the habagat, or southwest monsoon, hammering the Philippines has displaced 5.2 million Filipinos so far.
The Trump administration is barreling forward with a plan to open close to 45 million acres of wilderness in national forests to road construction and logging, removing protection The New York Times said has been in place for a quarter century. The U.S. Forest Service’s proposal would rescind a Clinton-era rule enacted in 2001 to bar roadways from routing through certain areas. The repeal is a major victory for Republican states and industry groups that lobbied for years to revoke the protections, and even unsuccessfully sued more than a dozen times to strike down the so-called roadless rule.
The new push comes a day after Customs and Border Protection paused work on a border barrier in Big Bend National Park after a flurry of videos showing bulldozers marring the protected landscape drove what the public lands-focused news site Public Domain called “a furious backlash.”
You know those thin white lines that trail behind airplanes? If you’re among the hordes of internet-poisoned conspiracy theorists, you may be certain these are called chemtrails, deliberately sprayed aerosols containing some secret mind control substance. In reality, these are condensation trails, or “contrails,” clouds of vapor that condense around soot particles from jet engine exhaust. Though they are not spreading any nefarious biochemical agents, contrails do take a climate toll, trapping outgoing infrared radiation like a blanket and adding to the greenhouse gas effect. Now Google is stepping in with a new program called Operation Blue Skies, in which the tech giant will partner with the British government and airlines to deploy its artificial intelligence technology to help create a zone in the North Atlantic free of any contrails. “While they may seem harmless, these warming contrails account for roughly one third of aviation’s total climate impact,” the two program managers in charge of effort, Paul Hodgson and Chaim Langermann, wrote in a blog post. “Our AI-powered forecasts have enabled flight crews and air traffic controllers to make targeted adjustments that avoid contrail-sensitive regions while remaining within normal flight operations. Now, we’re taking the next major step: expanding beyond individual airline trials to coordinated contrail mitigation across an entire flight corridor.”
The technology could, in theory, lay the groundwork for solar radiation management. Some conspiracists, without real evidence, suggest that contrails are, in fact, already a furtive government experiment to modify the atmosphere with aerosols that reflect the sun’s light back into space, a leading concept for how to artificially cool the planet and buy more time to tackle the causes of climate change. Those efforts are inching closer to reality — just read my colleague Robinson Meyer’s reporting on the world’s first major private geoengineering company’s fundraising or my reporting on when the startup revealed its proprietary reflective particle. Technology that could help coordinate flights to spray aerosols in the atmosphere, or can deliberately keep planes out of certain airspace, may prove central to deploying geoengineering at any real scale. Perhaps a public effort to explain contrails and deal with their actual downsides will earn more trust to experiment with things like solar radiation management. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Solid-state technology could revolutionize batteries by making them charge faster, last longer, and pack more energy into less space. But the electrolytes needed for the ceramic or polymer interior that store and deliver the battery’s charge are not widely produced in the U.S. On Tuesday, the startup Anthro Energy broke ground on a new factory in Louisville, Kentucky, that is designed to produce enough battery materials for more than 300,000 electric vehicles. The facility is scheduled to start production in 2028, and will provide a definitive domestic source of materials that are otherwise largely sold by Chinese companies, David Mackanic, co-founder and CEO of Anthro Energy, told TechCrunch. The plant itself is a testament to the success of the Biden administration’s two landmark laws. It received $24.9 million from the Department of Energy under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and another $18.4 million in investment tax credits under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
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Back in February, I told you about Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s middleground approach on data centers. Instead of advocating a full-on moratorium on building the facilities, as progressives Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposed a month later, the centrist Democrat laid out “selective” new conditions for large data centers seeking Harrisburg’s approval, including recycling of cooling water, as the state became a hotbed for projects. Now Shapiro is making an about face. In what The Philadelphia Inquirer called “a major shift from his initial embrace of the increasingly unpopular projects,” the governor signed a sweeping executive order Tuesday requiring local approval for data centers to receive state permits. The move is not a moratorium. But the extent of the backlash — seven in 10 Americans now oppose data centers in their backyards, per Heatmap Pro’s polling — may mean the need for a local green light serves as an effective ban. The order also removes Amazon’s controversial $20 billion data center complex between Luzerne and Bucks counties from the state’s fast-track permitting program, which is now unavailable to any such projects. “I have no other choice than but to take this executive action to protect the good people of Pennsylvania from these predatory developers and from these projects that would negatively impact our communities,” Shapiro said after signing the order.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans Monday to invest roughly $50.2 billion into upgrading the nation’s hydroelectric fleet and building new wind turbines, part of the Liberal government’s effort to build “a stronger, more independent, and more sustainable country.” Under the pact with provincial governments, Ottawa will upgrade and expand the behemoth hydroelectric Churchill Falls Generating Station, develop another hydroelectric project on Gull Island in Labrador, build onshore wind turbines, and construct new transmission lines. “Canada is extending its unique advantage in clean, reliable, and affordable power. Because when we master energy, we master our destiny,” Carney said in a statement. The investment comes as Canada is refurbishing and expanding its fleet of CANDUs, a natively-designed type of pressurized heavy water reactor that can run on raw uranium, as I previously reported here.
Romania, one of only seven countries with a pressurized heavy water reactor as part of its fleet, is struggling to generate electricity from its nuclear plants as the rivers Europe depends on for cooling water run low amid the latest heat wave. On Monday, the country’s Ministry of Energy brought a giant coal plant back online to meet surging demand as the nuclear stations idle, according to the Romanian news site Economedia.
Octopus Energy is, by its own press release’s pun, “stretching its tentacles beyond the home and onto the open road.” The U.S. subsidiary of the British renewable energy giant is making Octopus Charge, Europe’s largest electric vehicle charging platform, a public network in the U.S. The company’s app will allow drivers to chargers on the go. “Driving electric should be simple, wherever the journey leads,” Nick Chaset, chief executive of Octopus Energy U.S., said in a statement. “Drivers shouldn’t have to juggle multiple apps and accounts just to charge their cars.”
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Invest in Tomorrow Coalition says it took out clean energy adversaries in the midterms. Now it’s setting its sights on 2028.
A pro-renewables Super PAC – Invest in Tomorrow Coalition – is taking a victory lap, claiming it played a key role in the blue wave and announcing plans to be involved in the 2028 presidential primaries.
When I first heard of the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, it was clearly a revenge operation. Backed by renewables companies and crypto magnate Chris Larsen, the Super PAC waded into primary elections this year to take out Republicans who voted to repeal most of the Inflation Reduction Act. Tom Matzzie, a renewables executive leading the Super PAC, described the organization to me as “focused on accountability for elected officials who decide they want to attack the clean energy industry.” Shortly afterwards, Invest in Tomorrow announced an investment in seven races before ultimately expanding to 18 races.
Now that the dust is settled, Matzzie told me that most of the races they intervened in wound up flipping red to blue: “I think we’re on track to win 12 or 13 of the 18 we invested in. We had seven or eight marquee races and we’re winning the majority of those. We were hopeful we’d get one in a tough district. We didn’t expect to get this many.”
Their favorite trophy is Indiana’s 5th congressional district in the northern Indianapolis region, where Rep. Victoria Spartz lost a historically comfortable GOP seat to J.D. Ford, a Democratic state senator. Matzzie told me the Super PAC invested $2 million in the race to beat Spartz, which he claimed is more than both campaigns spent combined. (My search of FEC records shows that may be true, if you don’t count other outside assistance.)
After Spartz was declared the loser, the Super PAC sent an email blast to the media with a short statement: “Tell Victoria Spartz. We want her to know it was us.”
The Super PAC also claims at least partial responsibility for helping oust Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, who lost by just a few thousand votes. I’m told they invested $1.5 million in the race, including on a digital ad centered around an incident where Boebert was escorted out of a live stage performance of “Beetlejuice.” The ad claimed Boebert couldn’t be trusted around children. It prompted Boebert to do a whole segment bashing the Super PAC while guest hosting former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s One America News show.
“Oh, I love it when they complain about us. I love it when they whine about us. We want them to spread the word to other members of Congress about what we’re doing,” Matzzie told me. “We want to send a message that we will do what is necessary to defeat you in your next election, including getting down in the mud if needed, and we have limits on what we say and won’t say, but it has to be truthful.”
Since it is already time for 2028 discussions, I asked Matzzie if the Super PAC had any ambitions to be involved in the presidential primaries next. Absolutely, he said. First that involvement will look like education. That could look like having pro-renewables voices urging GOP candidates to be more receptive to the sector, whether they be representatives of the business community or landowners with solar on their properties.
“The accountability part of this comes later as people firm up their point of view on what they’re running on and we don’t know what that is yet. We totally invite all of the candidates to be supportive of the clean energy industry if they’re running for president. That is our ideal outcome,” Matzzie said.
But if candidates don’t get the message will they go on the attack against primary candidates? “I have no hesitation about doing it.”
On electrification’s shortfall, AI for nuclear, and Alva Energy’s big plans
Current conditions: Heavy rain is overflowing rivers in the Dominican Republic’s eastern inland towns, including Monte Plata, where floodwaters are washing away cars • With weeks to go before the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends, a new tropical storm may be forming between the Bahamas and Bermuda • It’s cloudy and 51 degrees Fahrenheit in London, where the British are marking Guy Fawkes Day, a holiday commemorating the 421st anniversary of the failed plot by English Catholics to assassinate King James VI of Scotland and I of England by blowing up the House of Parliament.
It’s a rebuke of President Donald Trump! A new era! A sign that President Lyndon B. Johnson’s prediction that the Democrats would lose the South until the end of young Bill Moyers’ lifetime (he died last year) was true! Maybe it’s all of these things. But one thing is certain: Democrats’ big victory Tuesday night halts what my colleague Robinson Meyer called “Trump’s energy revolution,” meant to defy the economics of renewables. There’s still much to dissect — we don’t even know who won shockingly competitive U.S. Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska. But my colleagues have a nice slate of stories to help us get started:
Vice President JD Vance is openly blaming the Trump administration’s war with Iran for Republicans’ midterm shellacking, and Democrats are formulating a new approach after campaigning against the conflict and its associated energy shock. Iran, meanwhile, is signaling its openness to peace talks, even as Tehran turns to guerrilla tactics to regain control over the Strait of Hormuz. All that looks to oil traders like more crude hitting the market. On Wednesday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell more than 8% to $88 per barrel. Brent crude, the global price measure, plunged nearly 9% to just under $95 per barrel. Murban crude, the stuff that leaves a Persian Gulf port in the United Arab Emirates, dropped 1% to just under $101 per barrel.

Big meals, big trucks, big computers — it’s the American way. Only one of those is a problem for electricity prices — a problem that’s also uniquely American. New projections from the Rhodium Group suggest that the U.S. is the only major market where data centers are the primary driver behind surging electricity demand, constituting between 62% and 77% of gross demand growth. In China, Europe, India, and the Middle East, residential and commercial buildings are by far the biggest new sources of demand for electricity to power air conditioning, heating, and appliances. Meanwhile, according to data from the consultancy Cleanview, upward of 41% of planned data centers in the U.S. are in states where newly elected governors are considering moratoria on new projects
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The Rhodium forecast also shows big global challenges for the fight to slow global warming. Electricity serves just 21% of the world’s end-use energy; by 2035, countries pledged to raise that figure to 35%. But the global average for electrification is on track to hit just 28% in the next nine years, threatening to maintain planet-heating pollution levels even as renewables surge and power emissions fall. Low-carbon sources of electricity are on track to generate upward of 80% of the power in China and the world’s richest economies, with variable renewables such as wind and solar producing the bulk of the output. Clean firm sources such as nuclear power and geothermal maintain a steady share of total output as variable sources eat into fossil fuels’ market. As a result, emissions shift to the parts of the world where fossil fuels will remain dominant. China and rich countries will account for 37% of emissions in 2050, down from 54% in 2024. India’s emissions will rise 26% by the middle of the century, and the entire African continent’s output by 37%. Worldwide industrial emissions are on track to stay static as the benefits of low-carbon steel are offset by the spike in production from coal-fired blast furnaces.
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Whenever OpenAI or Anthropic releases a new model, the healthcare industry, say, can measure its capabilities by seeing how quickly it can pass a medical board test. Last year, the AI startup Atomic Canyon — which formed to help nuclear plant operators sift through mountains of documents using large language models — inked a deal with the Idaho National Laboratory to create a test that can check the software’s ability to work with a nuclear plant. Fourteen months later, the partnership has yielded results. On Thursday, I can report exclusively for this newsletter, Atomic Canyon is set to launch what it calls NuclearBench, the first open-source benchmark designed specifically to evaluate how LLMs perform on questions related to nuclear energy. “Think about it like an open-book exam for AI models,” Trey Lauderdale, Atomic Canyon’s founder and chief executive, told me. The company worked with INL to design a 280-question exam, which can then be administered to AI models, whose answers are judged by accuracy and context.
“As you’d expect, the more advanced models perform better. You’ve got OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic all vying at the top,” Lauderdale said. “Nothing we wouldn’t expect, but it’s nice to have actual metrics and information that validate general hypotheses you might have. You could instinctively say, This model is doing better. But it’s really important as an industry that you start benchmarking what these models can do.” Atomic Canyon’s test is not yet at the level of a medical board exam, he said. But the company plans to continuously update its exam to account for the growing sophistication of LLMs. Eventually, Lauderdale hopes to roll out more targeted tests focusing on safety and risk, reactor engineering, emergency preparedness, radiation, and other factors. “It’s the equivalent of the tests to become a general physician or those to become a cardiologist, dermatologist, or gastroenterologist,” he said.
Last month, I told you when tech giants announced a series of deals to help fund “uprates” at existing nuclear plants, renovations that potentially squeeze hundreds of megawatts of new generation out of reactors that are already running. The deals with Google and Amazon looked to generate more than a gigawatt of new power through uprates across PJM Interconnection, the most stressed grid system in the U.S. Now a startup specifically designed to affordably uprate reactors is considering projects to generate as much as 1.2 gigawatts of new power out of existing plants — and it just received a major endorsement from a utility industry heavyweight. I can exclusively report that, on Thursday, the developer Alva Energy plans to announce that Jeff Lyash, the former chief executive of the Tennessee Valley Authority and Ontario Power Generation, would join its board of directors. Lyash has plenty of nuclear experience. OPG, owned by Canada’s most populous province, operates the second-largest nuclear fleet in North America after the U.S.-based Constellation Energy. It’s also building the continent’s first small modular reactor, the first of GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s 300-megawatt units. The federally owned TVA, from which Lyash retired last year following Trump’s return to the White House, operates three nuclear plants and is building what’s expected to be America’s first SMR, the second GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 after OPG’s project at its Darlington plant. Lyash will be the fifth member of Alva’s board. After former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, he’s the second to come from outside the company; the other three board members are Alva’s co-founders.
“What’s been pretty amazing is that we’re starting to attract top-tier industry talent,” James Krellenstein, Alva’s chief executive and co-founder, told me. “Jeff joining the board has been pretty transformational because he brings a massive amount of experience in modifying existing plants.” At OPG in particular, Krellenstein said, Lyash oversaw refurbishments of the utility’s CANDU reactors. He also sits on the boards of the utility Dominion Energy, the Canadian construction giant Aecon, the industrial conglomerate Curtiss-Wright, and the European reactor startup Newcleo, which Krellenstein said lends Alva greater insight into other sectors’ large-scale project management. “What the economy of the United States is looking for is sources of clean, 24/7 power. Nuclear power uprates are a way in the short term to get that demand fulfilled in the United States while simultaneously rebuilding the execution capability necessary to create new plants. That’s the exact scaling strategy that Alva is working on.”
It’s no Norway, where electric vehicles make up nearly 99% of new car sales. But EVs’ share of Germany’s new car market soared to a record 37% last month, according to data from the country’s national motor vehicle authority, the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. That, according to Electrek, equates to 94,086 new battery-electric vehicles, up nearly 80% from the 53,425 sold a year earlier.
‘It’s truly possible that a lot of people will wake up and realize that the spell is broken from Trump.’
After Donald Trump won his second term two years ago, I wrote about “the death of climate tech” — or at least the death of the term. That largely held up. Climate-focused investors and startups increasingly dropped the label in favor of energy security, efficiency, and infrastructure resilience, often reframing their pitch to serve the booming data center industry along the way. Following the Democrats’ midterm sweep on Tuesday, I checked in with “climate tech” investors to see whether the industry might be ready for a rhetorical — and ideally literal — comeback.
On the rhetoric, they were largely unconvinced. On the substance, they were a bit more hopeful.
“This was not an election that was a referendum about climate or energy or anything even close to that,” Lara Pierpoint, managing director at the philanthropic climate tech firm Trellis Climate, told me. The consensus was that voters were far more concerned with affordability, Trump’s deep unpopularity, and, to some extent, the data center backlash. Sure, all of these issues touch on climate, but it was by no means anyone’s central message.
But that doesn’t mean Tuesday wasn’t still a win for the energy transition.
“This new Congress, controlled by Democrats, will focus mostly on energy affordability and access,” Gabriel Kra, managing director at Prelude Ventures, told me. That, he said, will likely encompass a push for more solar, wind, and batteries in energy planning — but “all in the name of affordability and reliability, not focused on climate.”
Susan Su, a climate investor and analyst, expects this El Niño cycle to bring climate back into the conversation, but “maybe more in the form of adaptation, extreme weather, and just resilience,” she told me.
“I don’t think we’re going to rush back to talk about climate this or that. I think we will rush back to acknowledging that this is the macro of all macros,” Andrew Beebe of Obvious Ventures told me, meaning climate remains one of the biggest forces shaping the global economy, whether or not investors and policymakers choose to call it that. “Maybe it’ll just get more attention in whatever name, I don’t really care.”
Still, investors aren’t expecting an immediate flood of federal climate action in the lame-duck session, although, of course, passing the permitting bill would ease the way for economy-wide electrification. And Kra told me it’s still too soon to know whether some of the Trump administration’s canceled or frozen grants for technologies like clean cement, steel, hydrogen, and carbon capture could be revived under a Democratic Congress. Restarting that funding would certainly offer a beacon of hope for clean industries that have yet to move down the cost curve and into the realm of true affordability.
Investors’ most realistic near-term hope is that Tuesday’s results mark the beginning of a more stable era for the clean energy ecosystem. “The Trump administration has just introduced so much chaos, and markets hate chaos. They love certainty,” Su told me. She pointed out that as the results rolled in, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped. Su read that as a sign that investors were rushing to lock in today’s higher rates, betting that a more stable political environment would lower borrowing costs down the road. That would both make first-of-a-kind projects cheaper to finance and push investors to chase riskier, higher-return bets in the venture market.
“Even just the perception of more certainty via a potential check on Trump — a legislative check on Trump — could bring cost of capital down, which is going to have a positive halo effect across our whole sector,” Su told me.
Kra expressed a similar hope: that the next two years will lay the groundwork for a more durable U.S. energy and industrial policy framework. “By durable, I mean guidelines and rules and laws that can survive a changed administration and a change of control of Congress,” he told me. “That will unlock affordable reshoring of American manufacturing. That will unlock an industrial and commercial response that will really catalyze growth in the economy, in clean electricity and energy, and in the innovation economy.”
I also heard some optimism that Republicans, battered by Tuesday’s results, might start to find their voice on clean energy as they begin to break free from Trump’s yoke. “My big hope would be that we finally enter a phase where Republicans can not be threatened to say what I think most of them already know, which is that the climate issues are real and need addressing,” Beebe told me. “It’s truly possible that a lot of people will wake up and realize that the spell is broken from Trump, and they will be able to, in the plain light of day, evaluate things at face value again.”
That could help depoliticize and expedite the rollout of technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps, which have become partisan products in recent years. Meanwhile, Rajesh Swaminathan of Khosla Ventures told me via email that he sees lots of potential for bipartisan momentum behind superhot rock geothermal, fusion, critical minerals, and cost-competitive clean cement and steel.
Now, Su told me, it’s time for climate technologies that have talked a big game on affordability to prove it, giving investors and Republican skeptics no reason to dismiss them. “For years, founders have been talking about, ‘Oh, we’re not just cleaner, but we’re actually cheaper and better.’ Okay, so now it’s time to put your money where your mouth is,” she told me.
She’s also optimistic that this younger generation of newly elected lawmakers will be more open to the full spectrum of climate solutions, from adaptation and carbon removal to more speculative and unconventional ideas like solar geoengineering. “It’s not going to be Al Gore anymore,” she told me. “I think younger people have a very different view on, let’s do what we need to do to make ourselves have a livable future versus sticking to older mental models.”
But perhaps the most liberating takeaway from Tuesday night for Su and her fellow investors? “We don’t have to pretend that we’re friends with Donald Trump anymore.”