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The roughly 550-mile SunZia power line is crucial to America’s climate goals. Here’s how it almost didn’t happen — and how it was saved.

Two years ago, John Podesta met with Jennifer Granholm, the U.S. Secretary of Energy. Podesta, a longtime Democratic aide, had just started a new role in the Biden administration, overseeing the Inflation Reduction Act’s implementation, and he was going to meet with Granholm about high-priority clean electricity infrastructure.
First on the agenda was a list of transmission projects to ferry electricity from wind and solar farms to cities and suburbs where it would actually be used.
“Up pops the list,” Podesta told me later. The first project was a line called SunZia.
“My jaw dropped,” he said. “I thought we solved that in 2014!”
No, no, Granholm said. There had been twists and turns. But now it was back.
If you want to understand why the United States can’t build infrastructure, look at SunZia.
Envisioned as a roughly 550-mile high-voltage transmission line connecting a sprawling 900-turbine wind farm in central New Mexico to the growing cities of Arizona and California, SunZia is — according to its developer — one of the largest electricity projects in American history. When it’s finished, the line will deliver 4,500 megawatts of electricity to consumers. Only two power plants nationwide produce more: the Grand Coulee Dam in Washington, and the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia.
“It’s the largest clean energy project in America, and I think the largest clean energy project in the Americas,” Podesta told me. “It’s huge.”
For nearly two decades, SunZia has bounced through successive stages of regulatory review, financial restructuring, and litigation. It has been fought over, bought, sold, and at one point, forcibly relocated by the Department of Defense. Today, 18 years after it was first conceived, it is finally under construction. At least one outstanding lawsuit is contesting its right of way. If all goes according to the current plan, SunZia will begin to deliver power to consumers in 2026.
SunZia’s timeline would present an inconvenience — arguably an embarrassment — in any context. In this particular context, it could even invoke despair. “It’s a classic example of how we’ve gotten excellent at stopping things in America, and if we’re going to take the climate crisis seriously, we have to get excellent at building things in America,” Podesta said.
The stakes are far larger than electricity bills. The United States has pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Reaching that target will require tripling the size of America’s power grid in the next 26 years, according to Princeton University’s Net Zero America study. If America were to power its grid entirely with renewable energy — a feat that many experts doubt is possible — then it would need a grid five times as large as what it has now.
Even if that study (led by my podcast co-host, Jesse Jenkins) overstates the need for new transmission, the mechanics of renewables dictate that the country must hook up its existing grid to the places where the sun shines brightest and the wind blows hardest. The Desert Southwest — and New Mexico specifically — features some of America’s richest solar and wind resources. To decarbonize America, that energy must be harvested and transported from these largely unpopulated areas to the dense urban centers where people actually live.
That is easier said than done. Although transmission projects are unusually important for climate change, they are also unusually difficult to build, especially compared to fossil fuel infrastructure. Or, well, not difficult to build, exactly — it’s just a big power line, and we know how to put those up — but difficult to get permission to build. Ultimately, that permission is in the hands of the government. But when it comes to long, linear infrastructure projects like power lines, there isn’t really a single “government” to talk about it with in the first place.
To build a transmission line, a developer has to secure permission from every state, county, city, and property owner along the route. If any of them denies the project, poison-pills it with endless requirements, or even sits on an application, then the entire project stalls. (Building a natural gas pipeline, by contrast, requires getting permission only from a single federal agency.) Electricity utilities don’t usually like transmission lines because they erode their local monopoly over power generation and distribution. Those utilities have such great influence at the state and local level — through outright lobbying and by funding local Little League teams, churches, and more — that they can often convince politicians and regulators to slow down or block a line.
For these reasons and more, America’s rate of new transmission construction has plummeted over the past few decades. In this history of stasis, though, SunZia presents a special case. SunZia is such a high-profile project that its enormous delays have terrified the rest of its small industry. If SunZia was defeated nearly 20 years after it was first proposed, then it could render the field un-investable, one investor confided to me.
Yet for all the hand wringing, SunZia is a success story. It has now fought off its most credible lawsuits, meaning that it is likely to get built. Within two years, huge amounts of climate-friendly electricity could be coursing through the American desert.
Earlier this year, I went to Arizona to examine more closely why SunZia has been so difficult to build and what finally allowed it to move forward. I spoke to the SunZia’s developer and the environmentalists who support the project — as well as those who oppose it. The question I was trying to answer: What did it get right? If America is going to reach its climate goals, learning those lessons — and learning them well — is going to be crucial. When SunZia is completed and running at full blast, it will generate roughly 1% of the country’s electricity needs. After that, to fully decarbonize the electricity sector, we will need to run it all back 99 more times.
The saga of SunZia begins in the summer of 2006, when representatives from utilities, developers, and government agencies from across the Southwest gathered to discuss expanding the region’s power grid. After looking at energy and economic data, the group decided that Arizona and New Mexico needed a powerful new transmission line to connect the swelling populations in the west with New Mexico’s abundant wind and solar potential.
The Southwest Power Group, a Phoenix-based energy company that had attended the conference, soon put together an ownership team of four utilities and stepped in to lead the project. They christened the line “SunZia,” after the setting sun on Arizona’s flag and the sign of the Zia people on New Mexico’s flag.
In June 2008, Southwest Power Group applied to the Bureau of Land Management, or the BLM, the national agency tasked with managing federal lands, for the right to build a major new transmission line across the two states. “Local, state, and federal permitting efforts will begin immediately,” the coalition announced in an optimistic press release.
The first phase of SunZia was expected to initiate commercial operation by 2013, the developers added.
Back then, when a developer tried to build a transmission line, they had a strong but not definitive sense of the route — in part because the federal government could ask them to change it if needed. Under the National Environmental Policy Act, the government must study how infrastructure projects — or, really, any federal action — affect the environment, inviting input from local governments, environmental groups, and nearby Native American nations. (That law does not require the government to protect the environment in any substantive way; it simply requires that it consult everyone and study a project’s impact.)

Southwest Power Group knew that SunZia would begin in central New Mexico, southeast of Albuquerque, and that it would eventually connect to a large-scale renewable project there. (At the time, the vast wind farm hadn’t yet been planned.) Then it would proceed due west, passing below Albuquerque, before veering southwest and passing north of the White Sands Missile Range. After that, SunZia would turn west again, eventually crossing into Arizona. It would pass near Tucson, Arizona — the exact route was uncertain — before finally turning north again and terminating in a substation in Phoenix’s southeastern suburbs. From there, the existing grid could ferry electricity into Phoenix or further toward California.
This route presented many difficulties, but two river crossings dominated concerns over the project.
First, SunZia had to cross the Rio Grande. Although that river is best-known back East for forming the U.S.-Mexico border, it begins in the Colorado Rockies and flows in a southerly direction through New Mexico, bisecting the state. In other words, you cannot cross New Mexico without crossing the river.
The Rio Grande creates an environment in New Mexico unlike anywhere else in the United States: a high-desert wetlands, where hundreds of thousands of birds from across North America spend the winter. The BLM and the Southwest Power Group decided that SunZia would shoot through a small gap between two wildlife refuges — the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge to the north, and the Bosque Del Apache National Wildlife Refuge to the south — that had been formed to protect these birds.
Second, SunZia would have to pass near Tucson, Arizona by one of three routes, each of which required some kind of sacrifice. The first option involved running the line alongside an existing 345 kilovolt transmission line that passed to the city’s south and west. But the city and county opposed that route, and it required securing a permit to cross the Tohono O’odham Nation’s land, which the tribe refused to allow.
That left two remaining routes. One option ran near the center of Tucson, passing very close to overwhelmingly poor and Latino neighborhoods. This route raised “environmental justice” concerns, the BLM said, in that it forced poor people of color who already live alongside energy infrastructure to bear even greater environmental costs for it. The other choice was to run SunZia east of Tucson and through the beautiful San Pedro Valley, one of the most pristine desert ecosystems remaining in Arizona. Although vast swaths of that valley are privately owned, Native American relics and cultural sites dot its landscape.
Forced to choose between harming civil rights or damaging the environment, the BLM reluctantly chose the latter. But to blunt some of the damage to the valley, the bureau directed the developers to follow existing pipelines or transmission lines for more than 40% of its mileage. It also ordered SunZia to commission studies of archeological sites along the route’s path so they could be mitigated or avoided entirely. (SunZia would later adjust its route to avoid some of the most archaeologically sensitive sites.)
Studying these options took much longer than the Southwest Power Group had ever imagined. The Bureau of Land Management published its final environmental study on SunZia in June 2013 — the same year SunZia was once due to begin operation. Southwest Power Group was finally ready to start construction. Then the Pentagon stepped in.
Scarcely a month after SunZia’s course was finalized through New Mexico, the Pentagon filed a formal protest. The approved route passed way too close to the White Sands Missile Range, the complaint said, and the BLM had “not adequately analyzed the significant risks to national security” that would result from building it.
The White Sands Missile Range is the country’s largest military installation and is vital to New Mexico’s economy. By suggesting that SunZia might imperil the base’s activities, the Pentagon was at risk of killing the project. But something about that claim didn’t sit right with Senator Martin Heinrich, a first-term Democrat and former Albuquerque city councilman. Heinrich was an engineer by training, and his father had been a utility lineman, giving him at least some familiarity with how the power grid worked. Why did a big power line threaten the military base miles away? He asked MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory to investigate whether the line would damage the base as much as the Pentagon said.
Six months later, in March 2014, the study was completed. According to news stories at the time, the classified study found that SunZia would impair the base’s activities, but that its effects could be mitigated. After months of intense negotiations with the White House, the Pentagon, the Department of the Interior, and Senator Heinrich’s office, Southwest Power Group agreed to bury five miles of the power line — an expensive solution, but one that would allow the project to move forward.
By that point, however, SunZia had captured the public’s attention and polarized New Mexicans. The state’s Republicans gleefully undermined the project in the press. As the Obama administration prepared to approve the line, a Republican congressman and former oil company CEO intoned that SunZia would “permanently damage” national security.
“Greenlighting the completion of SunZia along the chosen route is a reckless rush to judgment without thorough examination,” the congressman, Steve Pearce, said. (The federal government had, by this point, been studying SunZia for seven years.) He worried too that the line would “potentially destroy ancient Pueblo sites.”
In 2015, the Obama administration finally approved SunZia’s route. After nearly a decade, Southwest Power Group had the federal government’s permission to build SunZia.
But that was only the first step: Now, the company had to secure state and local permits. That would prove even more confounding.
The truth is that New Mexico’s environmentalists had never been comfortable with what SunZia would mean for the state’s wildlife. They hated the Rio Grande crossing. They were particularly stressed about what the structure might mean for sandhill cranes, a regal and crimson-headed bird that migrates to New Mexico from as far away as Alaska and Siberia. Few sights are more treasured by the region’s birders than the vast flocks of cranes that form in the Bosque del Apache Wildlife Refuge each winter.
Birders imagined that SunZia’s towers and low-hanging wires could maim or kill the elegant cranes. If SunZia could bury the line to help White Sands Missile Range, people asked, why couldn’t they also bury it below the Rio Grande and save some birds? They whispered, too, that the line would transmit not wind-generated electricity as promised, but rather gas-fired electricity from a power plant owned by Southwest Power Group.
When Southwest Power Group applied for a state permit to cross the Rio Grande, the birders’ moment came. The developers were still finalizing construction details and didn’t seem to have a strong sense of where exactly the line would go. In 2018, New Mexico’s utility commission rejected the permit and asked the Southwest Power Group to come back with more information.
SunZia was flailing. Building the line had taken much longer than Southwest Power Group had ever envisioned. Burying the line, even for a few miles, had made it a much more costly project. Now environmentalists doubted that it would help fight climate change at all and were making increasingly expensive demands.
Then a new company came into the picture: Pattern Energy, a San Francisco-based energy developer partially owned by Canadian pension funds. Pattern promised to build a vast wind farm — comprising more than 900 turbines — at SunZia’s eastern end. It became the line’s “anchor tenant,” in the jargon of energy developers, and, more importantly, the project’s public face.
“They came in, and they were quite honestly pretty frustrated with the way that [the SunZia project] had approached community engagement and talking with environmental groups,” Jon Hayes, a wildlife biologist and the executive director of Audubon Southwest, told me. Up to that point, SunZia had been the story of an “industry just trying to push their lowest-cost alternative through sensitive areas,” he said.
But Pattern behaved differently. “Why it was a success is that Pattern acted and negotiated it in good faith with us,” Hayes said.
Pattern hired researchers to study how and where the cranes fly. It agreed to install infrared lights on SunZia’s towers as an “avian avoidance system” that will be visible to cranes and make the lines shimmer in the dark. It bought a nearby farm to create a sandhill crane reservation (the cranes also eat corn from the fields) and donated the water rights to local conservation organizations. When a coalition of environmentalists, including Audubon, asked it to study the benefits of burying SunZia, Pattern warned that doing so could permanently alter the project’s economics — but they studied it anyway. Burying the line would ultimately have been more disruptive than building lines, Hayes said.
Heinrich’s office continued its involvement in the negotiation and also helped move the process along. Environmental groups that had initially opposed the project switched their allegiance, Audubon Southwest included.
Pattern’s research led it to conclude that the line should be moved into Serivetta National Wildlife Refuge so it could be co-located with another transmission line. (Moving it inside the refuge would also, counterintuitively, avoid the largest bird populations.) When Pattern brought the new route to local environmentalists and the Audubon Society, the conservationists agreed. Pattern then took the extraordinary step of applying to the BLM for a new route through New Mexico. By adopting the new route, SunZia could also avoid the White Sands Missile Range entirely, avoiding the costly need to bury the line.
Cary Kottler, Pattern’s chief development officer, told me that the project’s pre-existing climate credentials incentivized it to find ways to make SunZia more environmentally sound. “I think we did figure out a way for environmental groups to support infrastructure, which has not always been the case in the past,” he said.
“Pattern being a company that was willing to have discussions with us in good faith — and that conversation happening before the re-permitting process — was, I think, really important,” Hayes agreed.
Heinrich echoed that thought in a statement. “I am especially proud of our work to engage local communities, conservation organizations, and other stakeholders to find pathways forward while securing strong economic and conservation benefits for New Mexico,” he told me. He also thanked the BLM, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Pattern Energy, for their “hard work and collaborative approach.”
“I firmly believe that when we work together, we can build big things in this country,” the senator said. “SunZia will have a massive economic impact in New Mexico while bringing us one major step closer to meeting our climate goals and conserving wildlife habitat.”
In 2020, Pattern entered into a deal with New Mexico’s Renewable Electricity Transmission Authority, a state agency meant to encourage long-distance power lines. The deal allowed New Mexico to reap some of the benefits of owning SunZia, and it spared SunZia from some scrutiny under state permitting law. It had taken 14 years, but SunZia was finally ready to build in New Mexico. It still had to tackle Arizona.
Pattern Energy bought SunZia outright from Southwest Power Group in 2021, and outside fundraising began to pile in. Last year, Pattern Energy announced that it had secured $11.5 billion in financing for the line, making SunZia the largest clean infrastructure project in dollar terms in American history.
But the line’s journey through Arizona — and specifically the San Pedro Valley — has remained controversial.

Throughout last year, a coalition of environmental groups, local property owners, and two tribes — the Tohono O'odham Nation and the San Carlos Apache Tribe — pushed for the project to avoid the San Pedro Valley, alleging that the BLM had failed to study how SunZia would affect the landscape’s cultural value to Native Americans. In November, the BLM ordered Pattern Energy to pause construction on SunZia so that it could consult with the tribes again; the groups held a series of meetings in the fall.
But the tribes deemed that effort insufficient. In January, the Tohono O'odham and San Carlos Apache Tribe, along with the Center for Biological Diversity and Archaeology Southwest, sued BLM, alleging that it had not studied how SunZia would erode the valley’s cultural value.
Their argument turned on the interplay of two federal laws: NEPA, the law that governs the federal permitting process; and the National Historic Preservation Act, which says that the government must evaluate how its actions will affect archeological sites and Native American cultural sites.
If an infrastructure project will destroy an archeological or cultural site, the National Historic Preservation Act says that the government must mitigate that harm, mapping the relics and preserving what it can from them. Pattern and the BLM say that they have followed this law. After mapping and mitigating archaeological sites along its route, they agreed to move the line to avoid some of the most sensitive areas.
But the tribes argue that the entire San Pedro Valley is a sensitive cultural area. The Tohono O’odham Nation has argued in court and in the press that SunZia abuses its cultural property not by destroying any one cultural site, but rather by entering the San Pedro Valley in the first place. In essence, the tribe is claiming that the entire valley is a cultural site unto itself.
They say that the BLM must do what’s called a “cultural landscape” study, investigating not only discrete archeological sites along the route but the cultural value of the San Pedro Valley as a whole. “The tribes have been trying to say that this [valley] has central cultural and religious importance,” Robin Silver, an Arizona resident and the cofounder of the Center for Biological Diversity, told me.
Their argument was legally daring. The federal government approved SunZia’s route through the San Pedro Valley under NEPA in 2015, meaning that the six-year statute of limitations for that decision had already expired. But the National Historic Preservation Act process only wrapped up last year. The tribes and the environmental groups argue that if that law’s process had been correctly followed, then the BLM would have been forced to change SunZia’s route — even though doing so would essentially re-open the NEPA process.
“Pattern Energy and the Bureau of Land Management, all they do is hire consultants that confuse hard archaeology with anthropology. So they go out and dig in front of the bulldozers and say everything’s fine,” Silver said. “The fact of the landforms having significant cultural and religious importance has been here as long as the tribes have been here. It’s just that when Manifest Destiny became the rule of law, tribal concerns were blown off, and they’re still being blown off.”
The coalition’s argument also raised the specter of old trade-offs — trade-offs that the tribe, by focusing on procedural and cultural matters, did not address in its lawsuit. The San Pedro Valley is incredibly beautiful, for instance, but it is not completely pristine: It is already home to a large natural gas pipeline and a few smaller transmission lines. When I asked Silver why the pipeline did not destroy the valley, but the transmission line did, he said in essence that the pipeline did not have the same visual impact as SunZia.
“There are no 200-foot large power lines going through the San Pedro Valley,” he said. “The gas pipeline doesn’t have 200 foot towers.”
I pointed out that this suggested fossil fuel projects would never face the same scrutiny as transmission lines. “We need to figure out a way to connect the sources of our new energy to the users, and our grid is woefully archaic. No argument,” he added. “But we don’t need to go up every single valley, we don’t need to sacrifice everything else, because of this mantra of climate change.”
Yet there is no way to upgrade the grid without building large transmission towers somewhere. Silver suggested that the line could be shifted back toward Tucson, but that would seemingly place it back into the low-income, majority-Latino neighborhoods that BLM had hoped to avoid in the first place. The other available route would be to run SunZia west of Tucson, but that would force the line onto Tohono O’odham Nation land. When I asked a tribal spokesperson if the tribe had lifted its decade-old ban on SunZia crossing its land, he didn’t respond.
In fact, the Tohono O’odham Nation has not responded to multiple emails and calls requesting comment beginning in March.
Two weeks ago, a district court judge in Arizona tossed the tribe’s lawsuit. She said that the statute of limitations had expired and SunZia’s route could no longer be altered. While BLM had once suggested that it would do a cultural landscape study on the San Pedro Valley, it did not do so in a way that would change its obligation to the tribes, she ruled. Silver told me that the coalition will appeal.
SunZia hasn’t made it out of the desert yet. It still has to clear at least one remaining legal challenge, a lawsuit brought by the Center for Biological Diversity and its allies in Arizona state court. But with the federal lawsuit against it dismissed last month, SunZia now seems more likely than ever to become complete, making it a key piece of American zero-carbon infrastructure.
Which raises the inevitable question: Could SunZia have succeeded more quickly? SunZia required no fundamental technological leaps or engineering miracles; we have known how to build a power line of its size and length for years. Yet just the permitting has taken nearly two decades. If we finally get SunZia in 2026, that means that we could have had it in 2016. And that means that we could have burned less natural gas to meet the country’s electricity needs, or at least enjoyed more energy, for lower prices, with less pollution. America’s ponderous approach to building infrastructure is often described as an economic problem. But climate change transforms that regulatory torpor into an environmental challenge. What can we learn from SunZia such that we never have to go through this again?
You can see SunZia — as many in New Mexico now do — as a lesson in different approaches to building big new infrastructure projects. Many interests across the Southwest were unhappy with SunZia’s initial route in 2013. But in New Mexico, the Pentagon’s formal protest to that route led — quite happily — to Pattern Energy, Audubon Southwest, and environmental advocates working out a better plan for everyone involved. In Arizona, meanwhile, the old plans never changed, the same contentiousness remained, and they ultimately gave rise to a lawsuit.
You could also see it as a lesson in political power. Silver, the Center for Biological Diversity cofounder, told me SunZia succeeded in New Mexico for one reason: “Martin Heinrich.” Speaking with a mix of resentment and respect, Silver said that Heinrich pushed for negotiations between environmentalists, clean energy advocates, tribes, and the Defense Department, eventually nudging those groups to arrive at a mutually agreeable outcome. In Arizona, Silver said, national and state-level leaders have not taken the same hands-on approach, so the process has been much more acrimonious.
There’s some truth to each of these views. To get large-scale infrastructure projects done, it clearly helps to have a federal chaperone — someone who can spur cities, states, tribes, and conservation groups toward a final and constructive conclusion. The Biden administration is playing that role now for some projects, although it lacks local credibility, and Congress has helped to standardize the process by creating a “Fast 41” process where the government can prod along stalled infrastructure efforts.
But there is also something substantively different in New Mexico — you could call it high trust, good will, or a solutions-oriented approach to problem solving. It certainly helped that Pattern Energy was willing to work in good faith with local environmental groups. But that only works if all the other key stakeholders, including environmentalists themselves, respond in kind. The current tangle of state, local, and federal laws that dictate infrastructure permitting do not encourage this kind of constructive engagement, pushing opponents instead toward prolonged and costly legal battles. These laws also fail to substantively protect the environment, guaranteeing only that a process gets followed — not that the environment gets protected.
For decades, developers and conservationists have attacked each other over every project and prepared to fight bitter court battles over every detail. Developers assumed that conservation groups were out to block them at every turn and shut down, even when members of the public asked worthy questions. Environmentalists, meanwhile, suspected that any developers would destroy the land if given the opportunity, whether they were putting in oil pipelines or transmission lines, and would accept no protest to the contrary.
SunZia’s story repeats this old, messy tradition, while also laying the model for a new one — one in which clean energy builders and environmental protectors work together to find the best solution for the environment and the climate. We will need many more success stories like it if America is to meet its climate goals — 99 more, to be exact.
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Rob gets into the nitty gritty of nuclear development with the company’s CEO, Jonathan Webb.
In the past few years, something surprising has happened in American energy policy: States and utilities have started trying to build new nuclear plants.
A new kind of company — the nuclear developer — is now trying to handle those projects. The most prominent by far is The Nuclear Company, a startup that has hired many of the same people who built the new Vogtle plant in Georgia. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Jonathan Webb, the CEO of the Nuclear Company. They discuss the company’s goal of building “fleet-scale” nuclear, why Jonathan believes nuclear is poised for a revival, and what has changed since the company began.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Let’s talk about delivery then. So I think you guys are working with Brookfield in South Carolina on this old plant, V.C. Summer. The local utility spent billions of dollars about a decade ago to get a plant up and running in this site in South Carolina and didn’t get it done. In fact, there was — it, they, I think it went bankrupt trying to get it done. Ultimately, that site has kind of sat fallow as this extremely over-budget project in Georgia ultimately did reach completion. That was Vogtle. You’ve now gone back into V.C. Summer with, I think, Brookfield. How is that going, and what’s gonna be different about it this time?
Jonathan Webb: Well, I don’t take lightly the privilege yet obligation that the state of South Carolina and the people of South Carolina and, candidly, every stakeholder involved that have given us the right and opportunity to be there. We have about 40, 50 people on site at V.C. Summer right now, and every day we’re there, people ask me, “When does construction start?”
I mean, for me, I’m the type of person that construction starts the moment you put your feet on soil and you’re planning way in advance. So there’s a Gantt chart with a schedule and all these milestones and, you know, when officially FID to COD. But I can tell you our team has taken it very seriously, and — I mean, you had $9 billion spent. It’s been sitting there since 2018. It was hard enough to finish in the first place, and now we’re stepping back in midstream to go finish it. And we owe it to the state of South Carolina and the community there to get these units up and running.
It’s not that we’re a Westinghouse company or an AP1000 company. It’s that we just believe that if the country’s going to go deliver on this promise of gigawatts, micro, small, large, whatever it may be, we got something to finish. And it’s to prove to not only the U.S. and the industry, but around the world, that if we start something, we’re gonna get it done. And so, I think we’ve developed a unique approach that we’re bringing to this project, but it’s gonna be results-driven. We’re gonna have to deliver a budget and a schedule, and everyone in the world’s gonna see that.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
Previously on Shift Key: The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
This transcript has been automatically generated.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Robinson Meyer:
Hello, it’s Wednesday, September 23, and it’s New York Climate Week. Thousands of people are piling into the city today to discuss climate and energy issues. One topic that’s very likely to be on the agenda is nuclear energy. I think over the past few years, there’s been a resurgence of interest in nuclear, and it’s one of the few issues that Democrats and Republicans in Congress can seemingly still agree on.
Robinson Meyer:
The Energy Department has this new multi-billion dollar program to subsidize 10 new nuclear reactors across the country. And in an age of rising electricity demand and overall load growth, nuclear has become more alluring because it’s one of the few sources of energy where you can bring on a whole gigawatt of power online just at one go.
Robinson Meyer:
One other thing that’s changed recently in nuclear is the rise of what I would call nuclear developers. These are standalone companies who want to develop and then sell off new gigawatt scale nuclear power plants. The most prominent of these companies is a startup called, as it happens, The Nuclear Company.
Robinson Meyer:
They arose a few years ago, and they’re involved in taking over the VC Sumner nuclear project in South Carolina. VC Sumner, as you’ll hear, they were gonna build two new AP1000 nuclear reactors in South Carolina on one site, and the company trying to build the project actually went bankrupt before it could finish the power plant.
Robinson Meyer:
That project has now been taken over by Brookfield, the asset investor, and, by The Nuclear Company. Today, we are joined by the CEO of The Nuclear Company, Jonathan Webb. Jonathan previously worked for the Department of Defense and then started and ran a startup called AppHarvest, which built large greenhouses in Kentucky before going bankrupt.
Robinson Meyer:
Jonathan started The Nuclear Company in late 2023. He and I had an interesting conversation. I tried to understand what exactly The Nuclear Company does, what they believe their advantage to be, and what could come next for them. I’m Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News, and it’s all coming up on Shift Key.
Robinson Meyer:
Jonathan Webb, welcome to Shift Key.
Jonathan Webb:
Thank you for having me.
Robinson Meyer:
So can you just start by giving us the rundown on what the nuclear company is? Certainly your name suggests that you make nuclear reactors, but you operate in this very distinct kind of segment of the industry. I’m not even sure if at the time you were founded there were other companies like you. So give us the rundown on what your company does and how it’s different from other firms in the industry.
Jonathan Webb:
So we’re about 200 people, built to deploy, operate, and service nuclear at scale in the Western world, obviously a focus in the U.S. And right now we have about 40 to 50 people on site daily at VC Summer, which was the abandoned site back in 2018 where $9 billion was spent, but unfortunately had to pause that effort. And so, you know, when starting this about three years ago, had a little bit of a counter thesis viewpoint that, while we remain technology agnostic and very optimistic about some of the great technologies that are gonna come to market with these reactors, our viewpoint was we wanted to be an enabler to support the community, and starting with the AP1000 because it’s the only technology that we can go deploy today. So building a team to support that program while being ready to help support others in the market, as they reach a point to commercialize their technologies.
Robinson Meyer:
So just give us a sense of where the nuclear company sits kind of with other segments of the industry, because you know, there’s utilities that tend to operate or off take power from big nuclear reactors. There’s a handful of companies that make reactors, including Westinghouse, with the AP1000. The nuclear company seems to sit somewhere in between, almost in a project management role. Can you just describe what you handle in the ecosystem of scaling up nuclear?
Jonathan Webb:
Nuclear is uniquely different and challenging than almost any other sector or industry in a lot of different ways, in which building a static building, building a manufacturing facility. You know, the Western world, we talk about nuclear as if it’s not working today. And what we forget to remember is it took decades to get to a point where we had fleets of nuclear operating at 93% capacity factor, meaning when the plant is up and running, it’s operating at 93% of the time. You know, the viewpoint to build this team, I hired much of the people I could off of the Vogtle 3 and 4 site, so I didn’t want to theorize about what the problem was.
Jonathan Webb:
I wanted to listen to the people that actually lived on the Vogtle 3 and 4 site. I was fortunate, Steve Kaczynski, who was the CEO and chair of Southern Nuclear, Joe Klech, our chief nuclear officer, many of Joe’s colleagues. And that first year, we were kind of just, for the investor term, in stealth. Really trying to study the problem. What happened? And what are we trying to solve for? And really the best analogy, it’s not a great one, but the one that was told to me that I now repeat a bit is like, think of Airbus and Boeing, highly regulated, zero margin of error. You need to get the plane up and running 100% of the time every time.
Jonathan Webb:
But they don’t actually make the jet engine. GE and Rolls-Royce do. And so while the reactor is critically important, the reactor can be maybe 20% of the total project cost when you look at the overall materials. But even after it’s built, you look at China and how they’ve essentially borrowed in a loose term or developed on their own or have looked at every reactor possible around the world, and they’re building reactors similar to an AP1000. Once it is up and running, it’ll operate for about 100 years at 93% capacity factor, and that is very hard to achieve. And so you have other reactors that, you know, in China and Russia and France, even in the US, that you might build them on budget, but they get up and running at 20% capacity factor.
Jonathan Webb:
And so even getting a reactor up and operating at 70%, 80% capacity factor, if you look at the fine-tuned machine of what an AP1000 is and give immense credit to Southern Company and everyone involved that was able to complete the job, while the build was a challenge, the way they’re operating those units is just absolutely phenomenal. What we wanted to be a part of is enable, whether it’s a utility or reactor technology. I mean, the reactor technology is essentially IP. It’s a blueprint, right? So you have to drag the blueprint through a supply chain. You have to get thousands of people to install them.
Jonathan Webb:
Even if they’re small or micro, you still have to get people in the field and physically install things. You can’t manufacture everything. And then you have to get it up and running. So what I really wanted to do, our chief nuclear officer is really the head of deployment, ’cause we’re viewing this entirely through the lens of: What do I need to do to get this up and running safely at the highest possible quality, at the highest capacity factor?
Jonathan Webb:
And those last 18 months of delivery is where all the magic really begins. And so, you know, again, the team we’ve built, and the gap that we see in the market, assuming the country builds, right? We’ve got a goal of 300 gigawatts, is we’re gonna need a team to deploy these reactors, commission them, get them started up, get them running, and then service them.
Jonathan Webb:
And so we wanted to be, you know, that team that you can call that you’ve put your life and everything into the R&D of those reactor designs. But the AP1000 is an incredible unit, and you just gotta build it on time, on budget. And then once you do, it’s up and running, and now the question’s gonna be: Can we find other units that are gonna be built at a lower cost, at a faster pace?
Jonathan Webb:
But will they get up and running the way an AP1000 will? Will they last 100 years the way an AP1000 will?
Robinson Meyer:
Even a few years ago, this question of whether load growth was gonna show up, whether we would see the kind of rapid growth in electricity demand that we are now experiencing nationwide, was a bit of an open question. Obviously, it’s now here, and data center providers, utilities, just straight up industrial customers, governors are rushing to get all the electricity that they can.
Robinson Meyer:
Tell us a little bit about the genesis of the company. Like evidently, you were early a little bit to the load growth thesis. You kind of had the sense that it was coming, before it was a certainty. So just give us a sense of how the company started and how you became convinced that fleet scale nuclear and that ramping up nuclear specifically was the best option.
Jonathan Webb:
I mean, for me, growing up in a coal state, Kentucky, was very foundational. I lived in a moment where, in my early part of my career, graduated from public schools, went to a public university, but didn’t quite grow up in a community of world that talked about these global issues that much.
Jonathan Webb:
But you could kind of see the writing on the wall where we’re shutting down these coal plants, and for every gigawatt of coal, you need thousands, if not tens of thousands of acres of solar. And in my early career, was a part of building solar, and so ended up being a contractor, had a clearance, was in the Pentagon helping the U.S. Army build energy assets on military installations. Very foundational being in the Pentagon. So I think going from a coal state, understanding that it was very bizarre for me where wars, I think many people would say don’t work typically very well.
Jonathan Webb:
You create an adversary. And so this war on coal was a little bizarre to me to the sense of we should thank the people that powered us through the Industrial Revolution and two World Wars so that we could have the freedoms we have today. And many people don’t realize this, but 100,000 people have died in this country in coal mining accidents.
Jonathan Webb:
Unfortunately, my grandmother grew up on a situation where she was impacted, her dad died in a coal mining accident. And so when I hear we can’t build gigawatt scale nuclear in this country, I don’t take it very kindly.
Jonathan Webb:
There’s a lot of people that have had to sacrifice a lot to get to this point, and you’re telling me we can’t do something the country’s already done before in the ’60s and ’70s, and we have much better tools and technologies today, and we have all the lessons learned of the past. We have an incredible safety record in the operating nuclear fleet.
Jonathan Webb:
So, A, saw the gigawatts were gonna need to be deployed, and there’s multiple ways to get there. So you could string together SMRs or you could string together large reactors. I’m pretty indifferent there. For me, it’s about safety and quality and speed and cost. But I do think the thesis of this company, for better or worse, depending on how you look at it, is only gonna become more extreme in the years ahead, where why can China build six gigawatts on one site and we can’t? Why are we talking about places around the world that — I thought we’re the US. I thought this is the most dynamic economy on planet Earth, that this idea that we’re gonna give up on big things because they’re too hard is unacceptable. So finding a team of people that believed in this idea that we’ve done it before, we will do it again, and yes, we might use different reactor technologies to achieve the same outcome, but we’re gonna go deliver dozens of campuses, and we’re gonna put gigawatts of nuclear on those campuses.
Jonathan Webb:
I don’t wanna get to the if we don’t, but I can tell you, unfortunately, going through some of these Appalachian communities and hearing from local leaders, what motivated me with this company was an ice storm in the region several years ago, where unfortunately I’d been read into a scenario where we were tipping close to a blackout.
Jonathan Webb:
And if a blackout in my state would’ve happened, we would’ve had, in zero degree weather, you’d likely, the number of casualties in a not well-insulated trailer park, elderly women, elderly men, young children. I don’t know about you, but that seems unacceptable to me. So we need to figure out how to work together and solve these problems.
Jonathan Webb:
We don’t really have any other choice, and what we’ve had over 30 years is the luxury of 2 to 3% load growth, and you and me and others all see that that’s radically changing quickly. And so while micro and small are certainly gonna be a part of the solution, we’ve also gotta be able to deploy gigawatts on campuses across the country.
Robinson Meyer:
I think that coal is actually kind of a useful, like, way in here because there was a small advocacy effort. There was an advocacy effort from some national environmental groups to shut down coal plants. But the only reason that could succeed is because coal was also facing this huge threat in the marketplace from natural gas.
Robinson Meyer:
Because at the same time, right, I mean, in the late aughts, in the mid-teens, the country found a new way of extracting natural gas, was able to tap these enormous natural gas reserves, and suddenly natural gas was available to producers extremely cheaply. And because you could sub in a gas turbine into what used to be a coal stack because gas was cheaper, it was cleaner, it produced far less pollution and was easier to manage, you could drop in gas into coal, and coal was basically out-competed.
Robinson Meyer:
Now, there were forces that were trying to subject all generation, right, to air pollution constraints, but coal was out-competed. And so —
Jonathan Webb:
Can I go on this one really quick? So yes, markets ended up dictating what happened, but I think what was not contemplated and what I maybe didn’t quite touch on when I was just explaining that is that coal, you have about three months supply. If you go to an operating coal plant, you have about three months supply on site.
Jonathan Webb:
So if there’s a disruption in supply, you have three months. Natural gas, you pipe in, and natural gas freezes at the wellhead and slows in the pipes anywhere around zero degrees. And so when we talk about climate, it goes up, it goes down. We didn’t used to have zero-degree weather too much in Kentucky.
Jonathan Webb:
We do now. It happens. And that, when I talked about that potential rolling blackout, it was because our coal plants were shut off, where you typically have three months supply. We’ve transitioned to a lot of natural gas, and while natural gas is resilient, it’s not nearly as resilient as coal because it can slow down in the pipeline.
Jonathan Webb:
And as a result, you can’t feed the plant that needs to consume it to create power. That’s why nuclear. We have the thing that we’ve done before that is clean, it’s reliable, it runs 93% of the time. It can run in ice, it can run in heat. And so yeah, this is why a diversified portfolio of power, but, you know, going full tilt and running the entire country on gas, whether you wanna debate about carbon or not —
Jonathan Webb:
There are studies and everyone can read. But separate from that and go to reliability, it is why both solar and wind and natural gas, they all have their vulnerabilities, which is why a diversified portfolio, but a country of our size not having large amounts of nuclear on the grid is borderline reckless.
Robinson Meyer:
It seems like another kind of advantage of nuclear at this moment is that it is an energy technology that both parties can agree on. The current administration seems to support nuclear for a number of reasons, including it’s resilient, kind of a classic type environmentalist doesn’t like it, which is a benefit in some quarters.
Robinson Meyer:
Democrats have — like nuclear because it doesn’t create emissions. You can bring on megawatts, gigawatts in one go.
Jonathan Webb:
Okay, you touched on the environmental thing. I’m gonna say it. I grew up in Kentucky, but I love nature. I walk around in creeks. I grew up this way. The worst thing we did as a country, and I don’t know why we got here, I don’t know if it was fossil fuel lobbies, I don’t know if it was just voodoo fear and panic of celebrities who were scared of nuclear but had no idea what they were talking about.
Jonathan Webb:
I don’t know if it was environmental, but my goodness, maybe the worst industrial policy that’s ever happened in this country, I might argue it could end up being one of the worst policy decisions in the history of this country, was not continuing to build nuclear. The fact that we have a 20% of our grid comes from nuclear power, and the fact that we’ve only built two reactors in 30 years, we’re living off of our grandparents who built one-fifth of our grid, and we shut that down.
Jonathan Webb:
My goodness, had we kept building and the amount of abundant power we would have and how low cost it would’ve been, I would argue probably the worst... I’m very biased. I live my life every day, so I see it through one lens of the world. But abundant, reliable, low-cost power enables civilizations since the dawn of fire, and I would argue this will be the singularly most critical issue that this country’s had that has allowed China to now beat us and potentially become the largest economy and certainly the largest energy producer in the world.
Robinson Meyer:
I think one of the interesting things about this moment is that there’s bipartisan interest in nuclear. I mean, I think there was interest from the Biden administration, and I think there’s been programs from the Trump administration. And one of those big programs has been this effort from the Energy Department to subsidize, help organize and back, the creation of 10 new reactors across the country. How is that effort going, to the degree you can speak about it? And kind of what needs to happen, from on the government side to build nuclear at, let’s just say the scale that the country was doing it in the 1980s and late 1970s?
Jonathan Webb:
Maybe it’s an unpopular opinion, a popular opinion, I have no idea. I try not to pay attention too much, just do my job. But I would say I have no idea what else Washington, D.C. can do for this community. The private sector needs to get a backbone and deliver. There are more than enough levers on the left side, on the right side, with this administration, with the last administration.
Jonathan Webb:
To me, the private sector making excuses about the regulator is just unconscionable. We have the safest nuclear in the world. No one in this country has ever been negatively impacted by nuclear power. Three Mile Island is our biggest incident, where, no casualties. The technology failed exactly the way it should.
Jonathan Webb:
We have a great regulator. We have great operators. So I mean, where we do need to turn our attention is what we do do right here, which is we have the absolute best nuclear operators in the world, the safest nuclear operators in the world. But my goodness, when it comes to getting out in the field and building, we have to empower workforce, we have to organize teams of people, we have to utilize technology to enable those teams of people, and we have to go deliver.
Jonathan Webb:
We need to compete with the other sources of electricity on pricing, and that’s it. There’s infinite supply demand for the electrons. More than enough people will buy the power. There’s more than enough capital to fund the projects. Private sector needs to sign up to a budget and a schedule and go deliver.
Jonathan Webb:
That’s it. But yeah, I would love to see more support in D.C. There’s a lot of support now. I hope the support continues, but they’ve done more than enough to ignite the industry, and we need to go deliver. It’s on the private sector.
Robinson Meyer:
Let’s talk about delivery then. So I think you guys are working with Brookfield in South Carolina on this old plant, VC Summer. The local utility spent billions of dollars about a decade ago to get a plant up and running in this site in South Carolina and didn’t get it done.
Robinson Meyer:
In fact, there was — it, they, I think it went bankrupt trying to get it done. Ultimately, that site has kind of sat fallow as this extremely over budget project in Georgia ultimately did reach completion. That was Vogtle. You’ve now gone back into VC Summer with, I think, Brookfield.
Robinson Meyer:
How is that going, and what’s gonna be different about it this time?
Jonathan Webb:
Well, I don’t take lightly the privilege yet obligation that the state of South Carolina and the people of South Carolina and, candidly, every stakeholder involved that have given us the right and opportunity to be there. We have about 40, 50 people on site at VC Summer right now, and every day we’re there.
Jonathan Webb:
People ask me, “When does construction start?” I mean, for me, I’m the type of person that construction starts the moment you put your feet on soil and you’re planning way in advance. So there’s a Gantt chart with a schedule and all these milestones and, you know, when officially FID to COD. But I can tell you our team has taken it very seriously, and —
Jonathan Webb:
I mean, you had $9 billion spent. It’s been sitting there since 2018. It was hard enough to finish in the first place, and now we’re stepping back in midstream to go finish it.
Jonathan Webb:
And we owe it to the state of South Carolina and the community there to get these units up and running. It’s not that we’re a Westinghouse company or an AP1000 company. It’s that we just believe that if the country’s gonna go deliver on this promise of gigawatts, micro, small, large, whatever it may be, we got something to finish.
Jonathan Webb:
And it’s to prove to not only the U.S. and the industry, but around the world, that if we start something, we’re gonna get it done. And so, I think we’ve developed a unique approach that we’re bringing to this project, but it’s gonna be results-driven. We’re gonna have to deliver a budget and a schedule, and everyone in the world’s gonna see that.
Robinson Meyer:
Can you give me an example of what better execution would look like on this project? I realize it’s, you know, tens of thousands of engineering decisions that go one way and not another way. But can you give me an example of an execution decision that maybe went wrong in VC Summer the first time around, or that often goes wrong with AP1000s, or that went wrong early on with Vogtle that you’re focused on getting right this time?
Jonathan Webb:
Well, one has nothing to do with this company and has everything to do with the technology itself, that you cannot go build commercial nuclear. I think it’s been probably proven over time at this point until the design is completed and you’ve finished some projects. So one just sheer baseline benefit is the fact that Vogtle 3 and 4 in Georgia were completed while VC Summer was not completed.
Jonathan Webb:
So at a bare minimum, we have the lessons learned coming off of what worked, what didn’t work, and how to solve these problems differently going forward. And we also have the team that did it. So we have people that lived on the job site, slept in the trailers, worked on, you know, that institutional knowledge is obviously critical.
Jonathan Webb:
Brookfield’s gonna be controlling much of the joint venture that we’ve announced with them, and we’re here to deliver based on, you know, how they decide to run on a go-forward basis. So I’m not gonna talk too much about VC Summer. So what I will say about what we’re doing unique and what I can talk about there is when I did start about three years ago on this effort after bringing a lot of people in and kind of hearing about the stories of Vogtle 3 and 4, again, the two reactors that were completed in Georgia, it was budgeted around 14 billion.
Jonathan Webb:
The project came in at around 35 billion, 36 billion. It was supposed to take seven years. It took 12 years. It was supposed to take 5,000 people, and it took about 10,000 people. So I was like, all right, these are pretty astronomical numbers. How did we get here? So the thing we have to solve for sounds like rocket science.
Jonathan Webb:
It’s really not. It’s pretty simple. Well, interest on debt, so if you’re carrying $20 billion of debt over 12 years instead of seven years, so time. Oh, shocker. So we need to do this faster. Okay, that makes sense. And then less people. If we have 10,000 people on a job site every day, which you’re in — I think you said you’re in New York City — buy a ticket to a concert venue that holds 10,000 people.
Jonathan Webb:
Go to that concert, look around. Think, those people have to show up and leave every day on your construction site. And a lot of this was being managed not with advanced work packages, not with... I’ve got a lot of friends in the tech community. We hosted a Deep Tech Week event at our office recently. I look at the technologies this country has to offer, and I look at mega project construction sites, not even necessarily unique to nuclear.
Jonathan Webb:
Why are we not equipping our men and women with the most advanced technologies to organize and execute? It’s unacceptable. So the first year was studying the problem. The second year was okay, and that’s where we partnered with Palantir and others. But we developed what we have in-house.
Jonathan Webb:
This is a nuclear operating system, AI-enabled, you know, logistics, supply chain, real-time information. But to get to the point, those 10,000 people at Vogtle 3 and 4 were maybe working 15 to 20% of the time labor productivity. Now, some people might say, “Okay, lazy Americans.” I take deep offense to that. I, me and my wife, we, I lived on a construction site in an RV at one point.
Jonathan Webb:
Can tell you there’s some hardships in rain and cold. Our men and women need the best and latest technology, and so everything we’ve tried to build is for that frontline worker. How do I get them the information they need? How do I get them the training they need? How do I prepare them on the ground so that they are ready to show up at 6:00 a.m. in the rain or 9:00 p.m. at night when their shift starts?
Jonathan Webb:
We have technologies that are available today, and if you and your friends go walk around on a construction site, you’re gonna think we’re in 1975. So, again, I can’t speak for the joint venture, and I’m not gonna speak for Brookfield, what’s happening there, but I can tell you we are closely going to announce our own sites where we’ll be developing our own projects, where it’s still in the phase of site selection, still in the phase of technology selection.
Jonathan Webb:
But I look forward to hosting you and some of your colleagues sometime and you can come see, we’re going to be unleashing the American worker in a way that we know is possible to get that labor productivity to 60% and 70%, or even north of 80. And that’s through just real information in real time, and we can do it.
Jonathan Webb:
The technologies are available today, but we have to enable our workforce, and we can’t think like, “Okay, we’re gonna go build like we did in the ’60s,” when we have tools and technologies available today.
Robinson Meyer:
It sounds like part of what you’re saying is the better execution comes from software, which is, maybe, like a Musk world lesson because this isn’t as frequently discussed. But when you talk to folks who’ve worked in the Musk companies, what they say is that engineering software is actually what’s so good and often isn’t shared.
Robinson Meyer:
So is that part of the play here?
Jonathan Webb:
Absolutely. And I’m fortunate to have a lot of people that have worked in those camps. Brad Buss just joined our board. He was on the board of Tesla for 10 years. Mike ran security at Tesla for about 10 years. He’s with us. Yeah, it’s, it’s — that is our internal tool of how we’re going to take millions, if in some cases not billions of data points, and get people real-time information.
Jonathan Webb:
I mean, here’s an example. So if you have 138 people that are supposed to install some object on the site at 7:00 AM, I’m on a site in the Ohio River that site is connected to a rail that connects to the Port of Norfolk in Virginia. A ship was supposed to arrive sometime at 3:00 AM or pick a time, 1:00 AM, and that object was supposed to be unloaded.
Jonathan Webb:
It never showed up. In today’s world, unfortunately of what we’ve seen in nuclear or other industry, you wouldn’t know, and those 138 people would be there at 7:00 AM. Now, why would we not be able to, with AI and logistics integration, have real-time updates? Okay, here are the 138 people. Here are their skill sets.
Jonathan Webb:
Here are their talents. They’re not gonna be able to do that work at 7:00 AM, but they can do this other work, so let’s now send them an update on their phone when they’re waking up in their RV at 5:00 AM. Here’s a tutorial of where you’re gonna need to go to the site. Here’s what we’re gonna need you to do.
Jonathan Webb:
I don’t take kindly to this idea that Americans aren’t willing to work. I think we’ve put the blue-collar and frontline worker in unimaginably difficult working conditions, and our job is to reduce that friction, make their life just a little bit easier, remove the constraints every day, and we can do that through technology.
Jonathan Webb:
So I would love to say we’re splitting the atom or sending a man to the moon, but really all we’re doing is taking technologies that are available and ensuring in a secure and safe way, which is what’s difficult with the IP related to nuclear, ensuring that we can have the data integration and real-time information, but be able to get our teams real-time updates just so they can do their job.
Robinson Meyer:
I think you might actually be splitting the atom, although I, maybe that happens upstream.
Robinson Meyer:
You’ve hired the team that executed the Vogtle projects, and both of the Vogtle projects were AP1000 reactors, this American design from Westinghouse. That’s the design, as you mentioned, China’s building. Why go with AP1000s in the first place? Why bet on that technology?
Jonathan Webb:
It’s the only thing I can build today. I get this question all the time, and it’s — there’s only one permitted reactor that’s been built a few times that I can go build today. And maybe that’s the only reactor we build. Maybe we build five different ones, and the market will dictate how that plays out. I have met so many different teams that are designing new reactors, and I am rooting for every single one of them.
Jonathan Webb:
The reality is we’re probably not gonna have 100 different reactor types. There’ll be a few in different class and category, and they’ll be used in different applications. So a few micro, a few small. Small is relative. So, all right, there’s a gigawatt reactor, which is the large light water reactors. A lot of the reactors in the U.S. are gigawatt reactors. Coal plants are gigawatt coal plants. So, gigawatt, there’s 1,000 megawatts in a gigawatt. So when we even say SMR, small modular reactor, that’s somewhere in the 100 to 300, maybe a little above 300 megawatts.
Jonathan Webb:
Still not small, but small enough to modularize. So the theory was, well, let’s take thousands of people off the construction site. Let’s move them into a manufacturing facility. Let’s manufacture off-site. And then that’s even further downstream to the microreactor, where you’re looking maybe a megawatt, five megawatts, 10, maybe 20.
Jonathan Webb:
I don’t know if there’s an exact number on the categories, but essentially micro, small, large. And we’re building the AP1000 because we believe it’s a... Well, there’s no belief. It’s a great machine that’s running incredibly well right now in Georgia, and got up and running very swiftly to 93% capacity factor.
Jonathan Webb:
While I think some of these other technologies you might be able to build at a lower cost, theoretically, there’s also the challenge of getting them up and operating and getting them to 93% capacity factor. So it’s a bit of whack-a-mole. So okay, is it easier to build?
Jonathan Webb:
Well, I’m a little more concerned about the 100-year operating asset that you’re then stuck with on the other side. And so is it a low-cost fuel? Is it low cost to maintenance? Is it low cost to service? Is it low cost to operate?
Jonathan Webb:
And then the other one is, I mean, there’s really only, for better or worse, and I don’t know why, but one individual in this country that’s really figured out manufacturing at scale.
Jonathan Webb:
It seems like there’s a lot of others that have tried, but Elon’s one of them. So this idea that we’re gonna manufacture things at a lower cost, it’s like, okay, well, call every car company that tried to do that that wasn’t able to, right? So this idea that we’re just gonna manufacture off-site and it’s gonna be cheaper, again, a great idea in theory, but China’s not figured that out, and China has endless buckets of capital.
Jonathan Webb:
They’ve been doing this for decades, and they’ve concluded that the lowest cost, most efficient, best way to deploy gigawatts of nuclear in their country were to do what we did in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. So while I’m rooting for every technology, we’re trying to figure out which one of the few are gonna actually going to work across the spectrum, and we wanna help enable their success.
Jonathan Webb:
So that’s a long, very long-winded way of saying why the AP1000. So it’s available today. I can build it today. We can get it up and operating today, and I hope there are many other reactor types that’ll get there, but for better or worse, at the moment, we have one to work with.
Robinson Meyer:
Are you looking at this Toshiba — ’cause there is another NRC certified, boiling water reactor. It’s this Toshiba boiling water reactor that got built in Japan and Taiwan, and was gonna get built in South Texas, hasn’t been. Is that something you’re looking at, and how does that compare to the AP1000?
Jonathan Webb:
I’ll say our team has looked at every viable technology on planet Earth, both in the US and abroad, that’s available.
Jonathan Webb:
I’ve got a bunch of engineers upstairs right now that are all evaluating every day what’s coming to market, what’s in market, what’s been in market. So when you asked early on, “What are we?” So I didn’t quite get to this, and sometimes I go off and don’t explain the company very well, so —
Jonathan Webb:
That is where we see a core part of our role, right? So everyone’s coming out saying, “I got the new Bugatti engine. I got the new Lamborghini engine. I got new this engine, new that engine.” When the reality is, like, not every engine’s gonna be the best race car engine, right? So again, if I go back to that original analogy, which I think I talked about when the airline industry, you know, we have the best airline operators in the world.
Jonathan Webb:
These are safe airplanes. They fly. We’re, you know, I know we all go to the airport and get a little frustrated at times, but typically speaking, our pilots are great. Airline operators are great. Very safe, high quality airline industry. The utility industry, the electric utility industry in the U.S., exact same.
Jonathan Webb:
They’re elite. Best nuclear operators on planet Earth. Just data. We operate these plants at a 93% capacity factor, have the best safety record in the world, 100% safety. What we are trying to do is evaluate a wildly complex market that’s evolving every day, every week, to figure out how do we get operators the best airlines, best airplane to fly.
Jonathan Webb:
And I can tell you it is dynamic, evolving, and we’re trying to stay ahead of it, and that’s our team’s job every day. Again, our job is to be objective and just review the data and try to figure out how to bring reactors online at the lowest cost, the fastest speed, the highest quality, and the safest.
Jonathan Webb:
So we’re bullish. I mean, we think the country has a great reactor right now. It’s the AP1000, and, very fortunate to have the Cameco team who owns half of Westinghouse. You hear about Brookfield a lot. What you don’t hear about is the largest uranium miner in the Western world, our partner friend up in Canada, Cameco, who owns the other half of Westinghouse.
Jonathan Webb:
Really wouldn’t be doing what I’m doing today without a few of their team members helping early on, kinda helped me get into the industry. While we’re incredibly bullish on what they have and they’re gonna have an incredible run at getting these AP1000s in market, there are a lot of others that are coming, and there’s some others that have been in the past that could be brought back off the shelf.
Jonathan Webb:
And so again, our team’s job, we’ve had some of the largest electric utilities in the US visit our offices in the last few weeks. And our job is to look them in the eye and be able to say, “Look, you, you fly the best airplanes. You run the power plants.”
Jonathan Webb:
So our job really is to stay ahead of the market, evaluate what’s possible, evaluate these reactors, and then try to cut through the sales job of, you know, which engine’s better than the other engine, and just data-driven of what is actually gonna perform better in the end.
Robinson Meyer:
What’s changed about your company’s thesis since you launched back in 2023?
Jonathan Webb:
Not much, a couple additives.
Jonathan Webb:
So my motivations surely are gigawatts on the grid at a low cost as quickly as possible. I think that thesis unfortunately is becoming more true by the day, where we are way behind the queue.
Jonathan Webb:
We’ve got AI data compute that anyone who’s been following AI for at least five years could have seen the ball a bit. Re-industrialization, we knew we had to make more stuff in this country. We outsourced for a long time, so we’re doing that. And the electrification of everything. So those three things happening at once are, you know, we had a luxury in time with that 2% to 3% load growth, so that means power went up 2% to 3% demand.
Jonathan Webb:
And part of that was because we outsourced our manufacturing, so load growth went down a bit. We did have energy efficiency technologies, but all that stuff’s happened. So now it’s, you know, we’re gonna have to figure out 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% load growth in this country. So the thesis I think is right. The only thing we’ve added to is we did get into nuclear services.
Jonathan Webb:
There’s a lot we don’t talk about with this company, and this is one that I think you’re gonna hear us talk more about next year. But we are now servicing over 40% of the operating nuclear fleet today, and I don’t know that many people even know it.
Jonathan Webb:
And so then people ask me, “Okay, why did we do it?” Well, two things. One, we are in a business. As much as I’m mission-oriented, we gotta return capital to shareholders, and I gotta pay employees so we can recruit more people, and it’s gonna take a while to build projects. So we started in services because, okay, great, I could tell my CFO it’s a good way to get revenue.
Jonathan Webb:
But, more importantly for me is it’s a good way for us to build credibility in this industry, show the utilities that we can show up and fix, and maintenance, and assist in their operating fleet. So we did add services. So when I say —
Robinson Meyer:
When you say services, kind of what do you mean? Like maintenance and repair?
Jonathan Webb:
Yes, sir. That’s, you know, we’ve got a team right now that’s out doing work that I would say, we probably doubled, tripled in the last year. And so it’s work that’s needed throughout the year to keep the fleet up and operating, right?
Jonathan Webb:
So another way for us to build relationships with trades, build relationships with frontline workers. I mean, again, I look at what is my job, my client is the frontline worker in the end. If we do this right, I’m probably one of the more relevant people, and I would say much of our corporate team and even board and even whoever’s buying the power in the end, that’s not really our client or who we work for.
Jonathan Webb:
Our job is to reduce the friction, understand the constraints of the frontline worker. And so it was a great opportunity for us to build those relationships with tradesmen and women to understand what do you need to be successful? How do we get you on and off a site more quickly? How do you do this where we can train you in a better way?
Jonathan Webb:
It’s been an incredible jolt for our organization. I can tell you one example on training. I was someone that couldn’t read too well until I got into the third grade. Retain information differently. I can absorb information differently. That didn’t go well in average curriculums. But if you look at how we’re trying to train our tradesmen and women, it’s black and white pages, PDFs.
Jonathan Webb:
I read one 84-page document. It was a very specific way to train on one specific part. I tried to read the 84 pages. By the time I got to the end, I could barely remember the first part of it. It’s just, my brain doesn’t work fully linear always that way. But we took that and with the software and technology we’ve developed and agentic AI quickly turned that into 3D models, 3D renderings.
Jonathan Webb:
Now you can take, you know, maybe a young man or woman who didn’t graduate from high school but is very talented and maybe is gonna struggle in a classroom. To contribute, we can meet them where they’re at and we can do it in a way where technology’s available, which is again, what gets me deeply frustrated when we say the American worker can’t work.
Jonathan Webb:
It’s like we’re not even giving them a shot. If you wanna go tour community colleges and trade schools with me, you will look around and you’ll go, “Wow, this is incredibly uninspiring. This is not acceptable.” We have VR, we have AR, we have the best technology in San Francisco. We have AI. Why are we treating people and teaching people with Word, you know, PDFs and pieces of paper?
Jonathan Webb:
So again, services for me in this company is less... Well, it’s very important to our CFO, so we’re gonna double revenue year over year. He’s excited about that. But more importantly, it’s our ability to build a relationship with those tradesmen and women, understand what their problems are, figure out how to fix those problems now so that when we have to go mobilize 5,000 people on a construction site, I can train them in six weeks instead of six months.
Jonathan Webb:
We can get them tools and technologies on the construction site to help assist in their work so they can be better welders, better pipe layers, and better craftsmen and women. And unfortunately, our country’s not doing that right now.
Robinson Meyer:
I mean, I was curious because I think when the nuclear company first came out of the gate, you guys were kind of the only nuclear project managers, developers out there.
Robinson Meyer:
I think since then there have been a number of companies that have announced, that have been founded or kind of entered a similar space. There’s —
Jonathan Webb:
Yeah, we —
Robinson Meyer:
— been Elemental. So what makes you different?
Jonathan Webb:
I don’t know the teams incredibly well, so I can’t say what they do specifically, but I’ve, you know, some interaction here and there. We’re maniacally focused on nuclear, so I know some are trying to bridge nuclear to gas and natural gas to nuclear.
Jonathan Webb:
We think nuclear, in delivering gigawatts of nuclear, there’s plenty of space for us to run. So we’re solely dedicated and focused on the nuclear industry. There’s others that are out buying land and trying to permit the land and trying to get financing for the land, which is kind of what you would see in like a typical solar developer world.
Jonathan Webb:
We have a team and a deep bench of capability to deploy, operate, and service nuclear power plants. And, you know, if someone develops a piece of property and they need a team to go deploy the reactor, that’s a perfect place for us to step in. So, people try to ask me again all the time, what, project manager, developer.
Jonathan Webb:
Yeah, those are small segments of like what we do. Like I would say maybe two, you know, two people on our team do like siting work at this point, and there’s a couple hundred. So yeah, that’s a piece of what we do, but I would say very akin to what we do and what I’ve not found a direct corollary to yet, although I’m starting to try to reach out more into the community to collaborate.
Jonathan Webb:
We hosted a bunch of, actually hosted a bunch of people in our office that, quote unquote, “competitor.” I hate that term. How do we partner and collaborate? What do we do? But as far as deploying the asset like an Airbus or Boeing airline industry, I don’t see anyone doing that. We have a team that can take a reactor, turn it into a power plant, get it up and running, and service it.
Jonathan Webb:
If there’s people in the world that can partner with us to do that more efficiently, our really only competitor in the Western world, we as an industry, it’s China, and they’re winning. We’re all losing. They’re building 10 gigawatts a year in perpetuity. They’re about to be the largest nuclear operator on planet Earth, and we as an industry have got to work together and lock arms and go deliver.
Jonathan Webb:
And so I personally don’t find anyone in this industry to be a competitor. I also don’t find anyone exactly yet doing what we’re doing. But we’re happy to collaborate. We’re happy to, you know, I would say look at our joint venture with Brookfield as a great example. You know, there’s a lot a trillion-dollar allocator Brookfield can bring to bear.
Jonathan Webb:
There’s a lot Westinghouse to bear, and on that specific joint venture, we’re trying to be an enabler of that success. And I would say to those listening that are in the industry, don’t hesitate to reach out to our team. We are going to win as an industry or we’re not, and the consequences of not winning as an industry has much more impacts than people’s balance sheets.
Jonathan Webb:
It’s our country’s at stake. We need more power, and we need to work together to get that power online efficiently, safely, and at a high quality as quickly as possible.
Robinson Meyer:
What do you think China does here that the US isn’t doing?
Jonathan Webb:
Well, they started where we stopped in the ’80s. So essentially you look at the, when we offshored manufacturing, when they started in the ’80s, when we slowed down in the ’80s.
Jonathan Webb:
There’s this idea in the U.S. that technology is going to just save so many... Like, and then you look at people like, you know, who ran Redwood, the former CTO of Tesla, JB. It’s maniacal execution.
Jonathan Webb:
It took China decades to get to where they’re at today. They’ve been doing this since the ’80s. They’ve tried to build every reactor type on planet Earth. You do it over and over again. You train people, you get better, you figure out how to whittle away costs. It’s the repetition. So I would end with fleet scale deployment in this country.
Jonathan Webb:
We’ve gotta design once and build many. We need to get reactors out, small reactors, micro reactors, also gigawatt scale reactors. And we need to print and print and print and print and keep getting these reactors in the field. And you will talk to some of the people that built the power plants down in Georgia.
Jonathan Webb:
You had people outta school, people with not great college degrees necessarily, that were the most brilliant people in the industry now because they lived on that construction site. One year on one of these sites is like 10 years in a classroom. So China’s done the hard work. They’ve enabled the industry, and this country needs to get back to building, and we need to build at fleet scale, and we need to not only double but triple the current operating fleet we have today.
Jonathan Webb:
And the only way to do that is to get in the field and build.
Robinson Meyer:
So they built up the know-how. I mean, it sounds like in other words, right? They’ve accumulated kind of human capital and know-how over the decades to be able to execute now at this high level.
Jonathan Webb:
Yeah, you look at France, they built 40 reactors in 15 years.
Robinson Meyer:
It’s interesting ’cause this would be the case for SMRs. I mean, this would be the case, like, right?
Robinson Meyer:
I mean, it, this would be another lesson you could take from the Musk companies is that modularity wins and manufacturability wins. But it kind of sounds what you’re saying. Ultimately, nobody has figured out how to make these things manufacturable. And so even though in theory modularity wins for —
Jonathan Webb:
I can tell you I’m trying to decons- I’ve got like drawings of cranes that China has on how they’re moving like one of the largest cranes in the world to move large reactor vessels, you know, advanced rail cars. I mean, somehow China hasn’t figured it out. So I don’t know about you, but I personally didn’t want to bet my career against China.
Jonathan Webb:
I assume if there was a cheaper, more efficient way to do things and get things up and running, they have a pretty large country that built a lot of stuff at a very low cost, and they have a pretty good way of, you know, finding out maniacal execution. So I’m not saying it won’t happen. I’m just saying to this point, China hasn’t figured it out.
Jonathan Webb:
It’s certainly gonna happen. There will be a few of the micro and SMRs that work, and we look forward to enabling their success and be a part of that. Hopefully, they’ll choose us as a partner. But it’s all gonna be hard. Manufacturing is hard. Field erecting things are hard. Thousands of people in a manufacturing facility is hard.
Jonathan Webb:
Thousands of people on a construction site is hard. All of it’s very challenging. We just gotta roll up our sleeves, do the work, and I’m a big all the above. So where we started earlier on in the energy portfolio and solar and wind have attributes, batteries and natural gas, nuclear’s got attributes, but with inside of nuclear, you know, there’s going to be applications where different reactors are gonna play better, but we gotta get in the field and do it, and my only thing with this company was can we not give up the thing we did before and act like we can’t do it again?
Jonathan Webb:
That to me just seems flatly unacceptable if we wanna continue to act like we’re the greatest country in the world and have the largest economy in the world.
Robinson Meyer:
We’ve used the plane analogy a lot to talk about kind of nuclear development and how Rolls-Royce or GE make the engines and then Boeing or Airbus make the planes.
Robinson Meyer:
It does seem though there’s a lot of like reasons why a company that makes the reactor would wanna eventually bring project development in-house. And you’re working with Brookfield actually in South Carolina, so what’s your theory of like why it makes sense to have a standalone nuclear developer basically as opposed to this eventually being vertically integrated within the reactor companies?
Jonathan Webb:
So again, I would say deployment operations services. Anyone can develop a property and go permit it and get financing and, you know, developing solar is vastly different than deploying these assets. I, again, go back to the airline industry because it’s one of the most heavily regulated industries. You need to be 100% all the time, and probably one of the better corollaries to nuclear power.
Jonathan Webb:
Not to say some wouldn’t, and they should. I mean, I hope so. And, and just, you know, but Westinghouse tried it before and that didn’t quite work well, so others have tried it before and haven’t. I would say having a team, back to at some point midstream we were talking about being objective, so, I mean, personally, again, I’m biased.
Jonathan Webb:
I think there’s value in having an objective team that can look out and work through. So if you, again, we throw this word develop, you know, what is our role? In many ways, we are trying to figure out, depending on what region, what community, where we’re working, you have local regional assets and supply chain.
Jonathan Webb:
You have local regional construction teams and engineering teams. You have large EPC firms nationally and globally. And so what is our team’s responsibility is to look at, okay, what is the IP? What are the blueprints? What are the drawings? What’s the best supply chain to efficiently run those drawings through?
Jonathan Webb:
And then how do we deploy these on sites with teams? And so evaluating, we do have great constructors in the U.S. We have some wood to chop and get a bit better, but there’s good constructors, but they’re not good at everything, right? So understanding, you know, which EPC firm should take this portion of the work, which regional firm should take this portion of the work.
Jonathan Webb:
What can we do to accelerate, auxiliary buildings, annex buildings, road? That to us is the deployment aspect. So could these companies do all of this in-house? Absolutely, and we hope they do, and some of them will. Do we think there’s gonna be a place in the market for what we’re doing? I would say all we’re doing is what U.S. utilities used to do in the ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, which is you didn’t have the reactor team be the team to get it up and running and get it deployed. And so the question for us was, you know, does every U.S. utility wanna go build our team and invest in technology, or can we help enable their success? But to answer your question head on, there will absolutely be a few companies that can figure it out full stack.
Jonathan Webb:
And maybe we can be a part of their success as well in some ways, but we’re gonna be here for those that have a gap in the market and need our help.
Robinson Meyer:
Well, we’re gonna have to leave it there, but Jonathan, thank you so much for joining us on Shift Key.
Jonathan Webb:
Thank you.
A letter from Day 2 of New York Climate Week.
Utilities sit at an uneasy intersection between private company and public service. Typically, it’s quite a profitable place to be: Investor-owned utilities get to be monopolies in order to provide electric service in a particular geography and then charge government-approved rates. But that also places them on the front lines of the consumer and political backlash to rising electricity prices.
Those prices are likely to continue to rise. The energy advocacy group PowerLines estimates that in 2025, electric and gas utilities requested some $31 billion worth of rate hikes. Spending on that scale translates into higher rates for consumers as utilities pass along their development costs to their rate base. S&P Global projects that electric and gas utilities will undertake $1.3 trillion in capital expenditures through 2030.
Utility executives are as much politicians as they are operators, as their entire corporate existence depends on a government relationship. So it was no surprise that Calvin Butler, chief executive of Exelon, the utility holding company with around 11 million customers spanning from the Chicago area to the Atlantic Seaboard, was speaking at an event on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly hosted by the foreign policy think tank the Atlantic Council on the same agenda as the foreign ministers of Spain and Romania and the prime minister of Syria.
As all this was going on, the White House and Congress appeared to be in the end stages (or at least the beginning of the end stages) of hashing out a deal on permitting reform. While the investor-owned utility trade group the Edison Electric Institute has been publicly supportive of a permitting deal since last year, several industry and policy insiders tracking the deal have told me this week that utilities’ relative political weakness is one reason why a deal might pass.
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That’s because an effective reform to transmission and permitting — especially to interregional transmission planning — could threaten utilities’ spending on serving their own individual territories.
“They are gonna get smoked in the Senate permitting deal,” one energy industry figure following the negotiations told me. When I asked why utilities aren’t opposing a deal, the insider told me, “They need too much from [the Department of Energy] the next few years. They can’t oppose this.”
(I sent a request for comment to EEI, which didn’t respond by press time.)
Butler didn’t weigh in permitting reform — I submitted a question at the event, but alas, it went ignored — but he was straightforward about the importance of maintaining good community and political relationships in the face of rising prices.
“We have to be connected to talk about siting of transmission, distribution lines, or substations. It’s what we do. I always say this: All politics is local,” Butler said. When it comes to local politics, Butler said that Exelon is at the “forefront of advocating responsible growth, responsible build-out, and community benefits agreements that benefit those communities.”
Butler also assigned some blame for the electricity price backlash to data centers and the technology industry, pointing to “people’s concern with AI, people’s concern that they’re going to lose jobs.” The tech industry, he said, “lost the narrative up front, and it’s tough to get it back.”
In the minds of the public and local government figures, however, utilities are very much a part of that story. Several governors or utility regulators in territories served by Exelon have opposed their rate increase requests, especially Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who demanded that Exelon subsidiary PECO withdraw a rate case, in a move he claimed saved ratepayers $510 million. North Carolina regulators also rejected a more than $500 million gas project proposed by Duke Energy, calling its price “staggering.”
When it came to how utilities affect everyone in their territory through the prices they charge, Butler was more direct and less cheery than his talk about community benefits. When asked if Exelon could “strengthen the grid” without raising prices, Butler plainly said, “No, you can’t.”
“We’re investing $41.7 billion,” he added. “I’m a part of that increase.”