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Data is elusive — and expensive.
Today, if a company claims to run on “100% clean power,” that generally means it’s adding up its electricity use for the entire year, then offsetting any fossil fuel-generated electricity through the purchase of renewable energy certificates, a.k.a. RECs. So a New York-based firm using natural gas to power its data center at night can offset that dirty power by purchasing RECs generated by a California-based solar farm in the middle of the day, so long as energy production and procurement happen within the same year.
We call this system “annual matching,” and it may not be much longer for this world.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced in December that, to qualify for the most generous subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act’s hydrogen production tax credit, clean hydrogen must be produced using a relatively new source of carbon-free electricity generated within the same hour it’s used and in roughly the same location. The hourly matching requirement, which will take effect in 2028, could compel utilities, grid operators, energy producers and consumers to adopt new systems for clean energy accounting, ultimately laying the groundwork for a 24/7 clean electricity market that extends far beyond the hydrogen sector.
Energy system experts generally hailed the move, and not just because without it, electricity-hungry hydrogen production could potentially do more harm to the climate than good. Annual matching, also, is no longer serving its original purpose of incentivizing the buildout of new renewables. When wind and solar were more expensive than fossil fuels, developers could make up the cost difference by selling annually-matched RECs. But today, wind and solar are often the cheapest energy options available.
That’s not to say everyone was in favor of hourly matching, however. Many of the companies that underpin the U.S.’s clean energy generation and accounting systems, some major hydrogen players, and even a number of Senate Democrats say that moving to hourly matching in the next four years could not only prove too logistically challenging, but also lead to infeasibly high costs for clean hydrogen that will hamper the growth of the emerging industry. More than a year of furious lobbying, public commenting, and punditry over the future of America’s nascent hydrogen industry hinges on this question: Can we pull off verifiable 24/7 clean energy?
There’s an emerging ecosystem of companies trying to help do just that. Granular Energy is a European startup creating software to help utilities and power suppliers move toward 24/7 energy matching by telling them where and when clean energy is most needed. “When you get down to the hourly level,” Natalie Valentin, Granular’s commercial lead for North America, told me, “it can help drive investment in the types of technologies — whether it’s battery storage, clean firm generation, or renewable generation.”
Utilities and power suppliers generally have hourly generation data on hand, Valentin said. It’s just that the energy attribution certificates they receive from tracking systems and registries for renewable energy credits don’t usually include this information. “This data is very readily available,” she told me. “What we’re helping to do is put it into a tool that creates transparency, it streamlines the operations, it has that audit trail that's preventing any double counting.”
Granular links the information from energy certificates with the utility or power provider’s internal metering data to provide an hour-by-hour snapshot of the supplier’s energy mix. That then gives energy suppliers the ability to offer hourly-matched green power programs to their customers.
All of this would be simpler if electricity customers had insight into their hourly electricity usage in the first place, or if the tracking systems provided suppliers with time-matched certificates upfront. But as it stands, most customers don’t have meters that provide this level of detail, making it difficult for them to understand where their energy is coming from. And out of the nation’s 10 renewable energy credit tracking systems and registries, seven don’t report hourly information.
The three that do include the nation’s largest grid operator, PJM, the nonprofit Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System, and the North American Renewables Registry. Seattle-based LevelTen Energy will utilize the data from these three entities to create a new marketplace for buying, selling, and managing hourly-matched energy certificates, to be launched later this year in regions where hourly tracking exists. LevelTen is building this platform in partnership with the Intercontinental Exchange, a tech company that operates global financial exchanges. Other partners include Google and Microsoft, each of which has announced plans to move to hourly matching by 2030.
“We’re looking to provide an end-to-end experience so people can indicate, here's where we have demand,” explained Katie Soroye, a LevelTen executive. Crucially, the platform will also ensure that hourly matching certificates are retired once they’re purchased to prevent double-counting.
The hope is that the seven tracking systems that lack hourly matching capabilities will soon be either persuaded or mandated to develop them, leading to a country-wide granular certificate marketplace — something the clean hydrogen tax rules were designed to help expedite. Once the mandate is finalized, the Center for Resource Solutions found, most of the tracking systems could phase in hourly matching within two years.
That doesn’t mean they’re eager to make the change, with many citing cost, low demand, and in some cases lack of data availability and confusion over how to handle a more complex dataset as top concerns with hourly matching. Cost is also a major concern for the hydrogen industry overall.
“To the extent that 24/7 works, it has to increase hydrogen prices,” said Aaron Bergman, a fellow at the nonprofit research group Resources for the Future, although he acknowledged that hourly matching is also likely to reduce emissions. “Now, I think what’s challenging is, is that going to be enough to interfere with the ability to really start building out green hydrogen?”
The American Clean Power Association thinks so. Its members estimate “a 20-150% price premium for hourly matched hydrogen production” because electrolyzers, the devices used to make clean hydrogen, will only be able to operate when clean electricity is available. The trade group recommends waiting until 2032 to implement hourly matching, saying this will give the market more time to mature and lower prices through economies of scale.
The whole industry is hardly aligned on this question. Seven companies, including the world’s largest hydrogen producer, filed a joint letter with Treasury officials before the draft rules were released urging them to require 24/7 hourly matching by 2028. “Hourly matching will catalyze cutting-edge, flexible electrolyzer technologies and establish a flourishing and world-leading domestic U.S. advanced electrolyzer manufacturing base,” the letter said.
The rule-making process will continue with a public hearing scheduled for later this month. But assuming the hourly-matching requirement stays, it will certainly add momentum to what’s become a movement for 24/7 clean electricity. Even the U.S. federal government has committed to sourcing 100% of their facility’s electricity from carbon-free sources, half of which will be hourly matched by 2030.
“Time is ticking,” said Bergman. “It’s really standing up something that is relatively new in a relatively short period of time.” Some degree of delays and logistical roadblocks may prove inevitable. But, he said, “it certainly can be done.”
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify that a new platform from LevelTen Energy is distinct from the Granular Certificate Trading Alliance.
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The energy secretary's philosophy is all over the Senate mega-bill.
As the Senate Finance Committee worked on its version of the reconciliation bill that would, among things, overhaul the Inflation Reduction Act, there was much speculation among observers that there could be a carve out for sources of power like geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear, which provide steady generation and tend to be more popular among Republicans, along the lines of the slightly better treatment received by advanced nuclear in the House bill.
Instead, the Senate Finance Committee’s text didn’t carve out these “firm” sources of power, it carved out solar and wind, preserving tax credits for everything else through 2035, while sunsetting solar and wind by 2028.
For much of the last few months — and for years before he was sworn in as Secretary of Energy — Chris Wright has been expounding on his philosophy of energy and climate. If anything, the Senate Finance draft seems to hew closer to Wright’s worldview than Trump’s, which is less specific, even more critical of renewables (especially wind), and largely in favor of nuclear power when it comes to non-carbon-emitting generation.
“I’m sure Secretary Wright’s strong support for firm technologies over the past few months played a role in Chairman Crapo’s approach to energy tax credit reform,” Pavan Venkatakrishnan, an infrastructure fellow at the Institute for Progress, told me.
Wright argues that climate change is real but not a top-tier concern and that it certainly should not be addressed by restricting energy usage, which he sees as foundational to the good life here and abroad.
And among energy sources, the former fracking executive is no opponent of fossil fuels but is also enthusiastic about energy innovation.
In his company Liberty Energy’s Bettering Human Lives report, published last year, which doubles as a kind of manifesto, Wright wrote that “viable paths to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can only come from reliable and affordable low-carbon energy technologies,” and specifically listed next-generation nuclear and geothermal, which Liberty had invested in through the geothermal company Fervo and nuclear company Oklo.
“To achieve largescale human betterment, we will need significant future energy additions from nuclear, hydropower, geothermal, and all other viable energy technologies,” the report read.
And he’s often been skeptical of renewables along the lines of many Congressional Republicans, that they aren’t reliable enough and require additional resources to fully support the grid.
“Maybe the biggest problem is intermittency,” Wright said at a Liberty Energy event last year.
“You can build a lot of wind and solar, and then at night, the sun’s not shining and then sometimes the wind doesn’t blow, and you have no energy. So to keep society running, you have to have a whole second separate energy system,” Wright said.
In testimony to the House of Representatives last week, Wright said “If you’re not there at peak demand, you’re just a parasite on the grid, because you just make the other sources turn up and down as you come and go.”
Many critics of the Republican reconciliation bills have noted that much of the electricity generation pipeline is solar, wind, or storage, and so cutting off their tax credits risks leaving the country at an energy shortage while gas turbines take years and years to actually get on the grid.
But as Congress was working on the reconciliation bill, Wright made a series of widely noted public appearances where he promoted clean firm power and continued government support for it.
“My recommendation has been to leave behind the equivalent of the wind and solar tax credits — through if you start construction by 2031 — for nuclear fission and fusion and geothermal,” Wright said at an event earlier this month.
In May, Wright addressed the Nuclear Energy Institute, outlining his support for sunsetting wind and solar tax credits will working to kickstart nuclear power. “My personal goal would be to much more rapidly sunset the technologies that have been around and have been living on decades of subsidies,” Wright said. He also supported a “window” of “favorable treatment” for nuclear and geothermal.
“I’m in favor of every nudge, every incentive we can get from the federal government to restart this industry,” Wright said.
While Wright has been skeptical of wind and solar and optimistic about nuclear and geothermal for years, he’s also started talking more positively about energy storage. In the past, he’s talked up hydrocarbons for “coming with their own storage,” as he put it in a 2018 podcast.
But at an appearance at ARPA-E in March, Wright gave some of his most extended thoughts on energy storage, which sits somewhat awkwardly between variable resources like solar and wind and firm resources like nuclear and geothermal.
“Solar is growing very fast, getting more efficient and taking panels, cheaper materials and developing energy,” Wright said. “The biggest problem there is the sun doesn’t always shine, and we don’t know when clouds are going to come and when it’s not going to shine, but if we can get energy storage better, that’s a game changer.”
At least until 2035.
When I reached out to climate tech investors on Tuesday to gauge their reaction to the Senate’s proposed overhaul of the clean energy tax credits, I thought I might get a standard dose of can-do investor optimism. Though the proposal from the Senate Finance committee would cut tax credits for wind and solar, it would preserve them for other sources of clean energy, such as geothermal, nuclear, and batteries — areas of significant focus and investment for many climate-focused venture firms.
But the vibe ended up being fairly divided. While many investors expressed cautious optimism about what this latest text could mean for their particular portfolio companies, others worried that by slashing incentives for solar and wind, the bill’s implications for the energy transition at large would be categorically terrible.
“We have investments in nuclear, we have investments in geothermal, we have investments in carbon capture. All of that stuff is probably going to get a boost from this, because so much money is going to be flowing out of quote, unquote, ‘slightly more established’ zero emissions technologies,” Susan Su, a climate tech investor at Toba Capital, told me. “So we’re diversified. But for me, as a human being, and as somebody that cares about climate change and cares about having an abundant energy future, this is very short-sighted.”
Bigger picture aside, the idea that the Senate proposal could lead to more capital for non-solar, non-wind clean energy technologies was shared by other investors, many of whom responded with tentative hope when I asked for their thoughts on the bill.
“The extension of the nuclear and geothermal tax credits compared to the House bill is really important,” Rachel Slaybaugh, a climate tech investor at DCVC, told me. The venture firm has invested in the nuclear fission company Radiant Nuclear, the fusion company Zap Energy, and the geothermal startup Fervo Energy. As for how Slaybaugh has been feeling since the bill’s passage as well as the general sentiment among DCVC’s portfolio companies, she told me that “it's mostly been the relief of like, thank you for at least supporting clean, firm and bringing transferability back.”
Indeed, the proposed bill not only fully preserves tax credits for most forms of zero-emissions power until 2034, but also keeps tax credit transferability on the books. This financing mechanism is essential for renewable energy developers who cannot fully utilize the tax credits themselves, as it allows them to sell credits to other companies for cash. All of this puts nascent clean, firm technologies on far more stable footing than after the House’s version of the bill was released last month.
Carmichael Roberts of Breakthrough Energy Ventures echoed these sentiments via email when he told me, “the Senate proposal is a meaningful improvement over the House version for clean energy companies. It creates more predictability and a clearer runway for emerging technologies that are not yet fully commercial.” Breakthrough invests in multiple fusion, geothermal, and long-duration energy storage startups.
Amy Duffuor, co-founder and general partner at Azolla Ventures, also acknowledged in an email that it’s “encouraging” that the Senate has “seen the way forward on clean firm baseload power.” However, she issued a warning that the unsettled policy environment is leading to “material risks and uncertainties for start-ups reliant on current tax incentives.”
Solar and wind are by far the most widely deployed and cost-competitive forms of renewable energy. So while they now mainly exist outside the remit of venture firms, there are numerous climate-focused startups that operate downstream of this tech. Think about all the software companies working to optimize load forecasting, implement demand response programs, facilitate power purchase agreements, monitor grid assets, and so much more. By proxy, these startups are now threatened by the Senate’s proposal to phase out the investment and production tax credits for solar and wind projects beginning next year, with a full termination after 2027.
“I think solar and wind will survive. But it's going to be like 80% of the deals don't pencil for a long time,” Ryan Guay, co-founder and president of the software startup Euclid Power, told me. Euclid makes data management and workflow tools for renewable project developers, so if the tax credits for solar and wind go kaput, that will mean less business for them. In the meantime though, Guay expects to be especially busy as developers rush to build projects before their tax credit eligibility expires.
As Guay explained to me, it’s not just the rescission of tax credits that he believes will kill such a large percent of solar and wind projects. It’s the combined impact of those cuts, the bill’s foreign entity of concern rules restricting materials from China, and Trump’s tariffs on Chinese-made components. “You’re not giving the industry enough time to actually build that robust domestic supply chain, which I agree needs to happen,” Guay told me. “I’m all for the security of the grid, but our supply chains are already very constrained.”
Many investors also expressed frustration and confusion over why Senate Republicans, and the Trump administration at large, would target incentives for solar and wind — the fastest growing domestic energy sources — while touting an agenda of energy dominance and American leadership. Some even used the president’s own language around energy issues to deride the One Big Beautiful Bill’s treatment of solar and wind as well as its repeal of the electric vehicle tax credits.
“The rollbacks of the IRA weaken the U.S. in key areas like energy dominance and the auto industry, which is rapidly becoming synonymous with the EV industry,” Matt Eggers, a managing director at the climate-tech investment firm Prelude Ventures, wrote to me in an email. “This bill will still ultimately cost us economic growth, jobs, and strategic positioning on the world stage.”
“The only real question is, are we going to double down on the future and on American dynamism?” Andrew Beebe, managing director at Obvious Ventures, asked in an emailed response. “Or are we going to cling to the past by trying to hold back a future of abundant, clean, and affordable energy?”
Su wanted to focus on the bigger picture too. While the Senate’s proposal gives tax credits for solar and wind a much longer phaseout period than the House’s bill — which would have required projects to start construction within 60 days of the bill’s passage and enter service by 2028 — Su still doesn’t think the Senate’s version is much to celebrate.
“The specific changes that came through in the Senate version are really kind of nibbling at the edges and at the end of the day, this is a huge blow for our emissions trajectory,” Su told me. She’s always been a big believer that there’s still a significant amount of cutting edge innovation in the solar and wind sectors, she told me. For example, Toba is an investor in Swift Solar, a startup developing high-efficiency perovskite solar cells. Nixing tax credits that benefit the solar industry will hit these smaller players especially hard, she told me.
With the Senate now working to finalize the bill, investors agreed that the current proposal is certainly not the worst case scenario. But many did say it was worse than they had — perhaps overly optimistically — been holding out for.
“To me, it's really bad because it now has a major Senate stamp of approval,” Su told me. The Senate usually tempers the more extreme, partisan impulses of the House. Thus, the closer a bill gets to clearing the Senate, the closer it usually is to its final form. Now, it seems, the reconciliation bill is suddenly feeling very real for people.
“At least back between May 22 and [Monday], we didn't know what was going to get amended, so there was still this window of hope that things could change more dramatically." Su said. Now that window is slowly closing, and the picture of what incentives will — and won’t — survive is coming into greater focus.
Rob and Jesse talk with John Henry Harris, the cofounder and CEO of Harbinger Motors.
You might not think that often about medium-duty trucks, but they’re all around you: ambulances, UPS and FedEx delivery trucks, school buses. And although they make up a relatively small share of vehicles on the road, they generate an outsized amount of carbon pollution. They’re also a surprisingly ripe target for electrification, because so many medium-duty trucks drive fewer than 150 miles a day.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with John Henry Harris, the cofounder and CEO of Harbinger Motors. Harbinger is a Los Angeles-based startup that sells electric and hybrid chassis for medium-duty vehicles, such as delivery vans, moving trucks, and ambulances.
Rob, John, and Jesse chat about why medium-duty trucking is unlike any other vehicle segment, how to design an electric truck to last 20 years, and how President Trump’s tariffs are already stalling out manufacturing firms. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: What is it like building a final assembly plant — a U.S. factory — in this moment?
John Harris: I would say lots of people talk about how excited they are about U.S. manufacturing, but that's very different than putting their money where their mouth is. Building a final assembly line, like we have — our team here is really good, that they made it feel not that hard. The challenge is the whole supply chain.
If we look at what we build here in-house at Harbinger, we have a final assembly line where we bolt parts together to make chassis. We also have two sub-component assembly lines where we take copper and make motors, and where we take cells and make batteries. All three of those lines work pretty well. We're pumping out chassis, and they roll out the door, and we sell them to people, which is great. But it’s all the stuff that goes into those, that's the most challenging. There's a lot of trade policy at certain hours of the day, on certain days of the week — depending on when we check — that is theoretically supposed to encourage us manufacturing.
But it's really not because of the volatility. It costs us an enormous amount to build the supply chain, to feed these lines. And when we have volatile trade policy, our reaction, and everyone else's reaction, is to just pause. It’s not to spend more money on U.S. manufacturing, because we were already doing that. We were spending a lot on U.S. manufacturing as part of our core approach to manufacturing.
The latest trade policy has caused us to spend less money on U.S. manufacturing — not more, because we're unclear on what is the demand environment going to be, what is the policy going to be next week? We were getting ready to make major investments to take certain manufacturing tasks in our supply chain out of China and move them to Mexico, for example. Now we’re not. We were getting ready to invest in certain kinds of automation to do things in house, and now we're waiting. So the volatility is dramatically shrinking investment in US manufacturing, including ours.
Meyer: And can you just explain, why did you make that decision to pause investment and how does trade policy affect that decision?
Harris: When we had 25% tariffs on China, if we take content out of China and move it to Mexico, we break even — if that. We might still end up underwater. That's because there's better automation in China. There's much higher labor productivity. And — this one is always shocking to people — there’s lower logistics costs. When we move stuff from Shenzhen to our factory, in many cases it costs us less than moving shipments from Monterey.
Mentioned:
CalStart’s data on medium-duty electric trucks deployed in the U.S.
Here’s the chart that John showed Rob and Jesse:
Courtesy of Harbinger
It draws on data from Bloomberg in China, the ICCT, and the Calstart ZET Dashboard in the United States.
Jesse’s case for EVs with gas tanks — which are called extended range electric vehicles