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On campaigns, clean energy manufacturing, and the IEA

Current conditions: Lisbon and “most of Spain” are without power due to a massive blackout • Dubai residents are being told to limit outdoor activity today as temperatures could hit 108 degrees Fahrenheit • Monday will be “one of the most active days of severe weather so far this season” in the U.S., with meteorologists issuing a rare “high risk” warning for intense storms and destructive tornadoes across the Upper Midwest.
It’s Election Day in Canada, where Liberal Party leader Mark Carney holds a modest lead against the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre — a “stunning reversal” from late last year, when Conservatives had a 20-point lead in the national polls. But that was before President Trump’s tariffs and comments about annexing the country.
The election has been a stunning reversal in other ways, as well: In 2021, “the environment topped the list of voter concerns,” the BBC notes, and “there was a consensus between the two major parties that Canada should rapidly transition to a green economy.” But climate change has not been a central talking point of the 2025 campaigns, even for Carney, a former special envoy on climate action and finance to the United Nations.
Instead, Carney cut the country’s carbon tax on his first day as prime minister following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, and he has vowed to make Canada a “leading energy superpower” by expanding oil and gas production along with renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technology. Poilievre, a proponent of significantly expanding the nation’s oil and gas industries, has argued that “technology, not taxes, is the best way to fight climate change and protect our environment.” The winner is expected to be announced Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
Clean energy manufacturing fell in the first quarter of 2025, marking “the first decline since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed in 2022,” Barron’s writes based on a new report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Rhodium Group. While clean manufacturing has more than tripled, from $2.5 billion at the end of 2022 to $14 billion in the first quarter of 2025, the surge has been driven primarily by the electric vehicle supply chain. In the first three months of the year, six manufacturing projects worth $6.9 billion in investment were canceled, representing “the highest value of cancellations on record,” while $2.1 billion in earlier-stage investments were also canceled. “Among the companies that changed their plans were T1 Energy, formerly known as Freyr Battery; Kore Power; and the electric-vehicle start-ups Nikola and Canoo,” Barron’s notes, with the report crediting some of the turbulence to the fact that the sector “faces rising headwinds from tariff escalations, an uncertain federal policy outlook, and macroeconomic pressures.”
The Trump administration is pressuring the International Energy Agency to “cease its work promoting the global shift to clean power and net-zero carbon emissions,” Politico reports. During the organization’s conference in London last week, attendees largely championed “an exciting vision of energy security and abundance from cheap, homegrown low-carbon power,” in the words of the UK’s Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. The U.S. acting assistant secretary of energy for international affairs, Tommy Joyce, took a different view, however, bashing net-zero policies that, he said, “harm human lives.”
Republicans have been calling for years for the U.S. to “come up with a strategy to replace leadership at the IEA,” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice President JD Vance have pushed similar “energy dominance” narratives in their own recent international meetings. But despite what a European official described to Politico as the U.S.’s evident intention to “weaken or disable the IEA unless they’re working on our values,” a French official told reporters that “decarbonization is both an objective and a tool” of energy security and “we have no fear that the IEA will change its position.”
Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD doubled its net profit since last year, from 4.6 billion yuan to 9.2 billion yuan (about $1.3 billion), the company reported in its first-quarter earnings on Friday. The automaker also announced that its revenue increased 36% year-over-year, with total sales of EVs and hybrids rising 60% to over a million units. The earnings stand in stark contrast to Tesla’s Q1 results, which saw profits fall 71% over the first three months of the year. BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top EV seller in 2024, and The Wall Street Journal notes that it “appears relatively insulated from the U.S. tariffs on the auto sector, having long prioritized other international markets.” You can learn more about how BYD became “the most important car company most Americans have still never heard of” by listening to this episode of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast.
More than 200 people gathered in South Memphis on Friday night to voice their concerns about the use of gas turbines to power the supercomputer facility of Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI, the Memphis Commercial Appeal reports. “We deserve clean air, and our lungs are not for sale to xAI or Elon Musk,” Democratic state Representative Justin J. Pearson said at the event.
Earlier this month, the Southern Environmental Law Center announced that it had obtained aerial images showing that the Memphis xAI facility was using at least 35 portable methane gas turbines without air permits to power its supercomputer — despite Memphis Mayor Paul Young’s claims that “only 15” were turned on while the permitting was pending. KeShaun Pearson, the president of Memphis Community Against Pollution, slammed xAI over “perpetuating environmental racism” with the illegal generators, since methane emissions have been linked to serious health problems like asthma and certain cancers. The public comment period for the plant’s operations permit for 15 gas turbines closes on April 30.

The three-year-old activist group Just Stop Oil held its final protest in London this weekend, claiming it has achieved its goal of halting the United Kingdom’s extraction of oil and gas following the Labour Party’s suspension of new exploration licenses in the North Sea in March.
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The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:
First, the Energy Information Administration reported this week that U.S. emissions grew by more than 2% last year, driven by surging electricity demand and an increase in coal-fired generation. What caused that higher power demand? New factories and data centers — as well as record summertime cooling demand.
Second, many of the new factories driving that higher power demand are themselves producing goods that are … let’s say … data center-adjacent. There are the enormous new semiconductor fabs, of course. But Ford and General Motors have also set up new production lines (or repurposed old ones) to manufacture grid-scale batteries to meet power demand.
Third, take a look at the recent U.S. spending on private non-residential construction — in other words, everything American companies are building that is not houses, condos, or apartments.
The construction industry’s spent almost $60 billion on data centers over the past year, which is more than it spent on all other office buildings combined (and more than it spent building warehouses, too). Just a handful of categories — data centers, power plants, electricity infrastructure, and certain kinds of electronics manufacturing — now make up a third of all U.S. private non-residential construction investment. They’ve never made up such a large share of construction spending since data collection began in 2014.
As The New York Times recently noted, the American economy is unusually dependent on the American stock market right now — and the stock market is unusually dependent on artificial intelligence. This week, investors started to balk at the enormous spending hyperscalers are planning to keep building out the AI boom; Alphabet’s shares dropped 8% this week after it boosted its planned 2026 capital expenditure and signaled 2027 will be even bigger. If the data center boom started to slow down in earnest, then more than just that budget will change.
Speaking of which, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote earlier this week about how many businesses are struggling to even estimate their carbon emissions from artificial intelligence. The carbon accounting startup Watershed recently unveiled a new formula to help companies get a sense of their AI-related emissions.
But even that formula is still limited by the amount of data hyperscalers publish — and they don’t publish that much. Google, for instance, is the only AI company that has (laudably) provided estimates of its emissions on a per-prompt basis. Yet no company has published its per-token emissions, or how emissions sync up with particular models or regions.
So Emily asked Google: Why aren’t you — or any other model provider — disclosing this kind of data yet?
The tech company didn’t get back to us until after we’d published Emily’s story. But its response was interesting enough that I wanted to quote some of it here.
The problem is “industry consensus,” Cooper Elsworth, a Google spokesperson, told us. “There is currently very little consensus on how to comprehensively and fairly measure the serving environmental impact of generative AI (such as text generation),” he wrote. “Without standardized, ‘apples-to-apples’ frameworks, it is difficult to compare different providers accurately.”
That’s partly because energy use — and emissions data — can vary from site to site and depend on “custom-built hardware, software compilers, and advanced inference techniques.” And he claimed Google doesn’t always have the measurement hardware in place to provide such specific estimates: “Providing precise, repeatable data requires highly advanced measurement infrastructure,” he said. “For example, software-based energy monitoring tools often suffer from sampling biases. For our study, we had to step away from top-down averages and directly measure actual energy at the physical power supply unit (PSU) level across our deployed fleet. Not all providers have the telemetry or data sets required to benchmark their operations at this level of granularity.”
Read Emily’s story to understand the other reasons why estimating — or even “guesstimating” — AI-related carbon emissions is so challenging.
A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.
Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
What is actually being done on policy when it comes to data centers — beyond moratoria of course?
So first I’d like to just talk about the point of moratoria. It’s helpful to talk about how these policies emerge in the first place. One area where moratoria are helpful is when a data center is proposed but the county has no approach for how they’d like to potentially regulate them. That’s temporary, most of the time. It lets local governments conduct research on the various impacts and also negotiate community benefits, ones that can mitigate any potential negative impacts — like Lancaster Pennsylvania, which instituted a community benefit agreement that maximized the potential benefits of development while mitigating what large data centers can do. That agreement looked at capping municipal water use at 20,000 gallons per day and requiring 100% clean energy. It had financial penalties for non-compliance. The company also committed $20 million to their local economic development and clean energy fund. There are ways to negotiate with developers.
We also see amendments to existing zoning. Data center proposals are increasingly popping up in rural areas, many of which are unzoned, so there’s no way a county can negotiate unless there’s a moratorium in place.
Other policy solutions include different performance standards or requiring on-site renewable energy, like what Jefferson County, Missouri, looked at. Also setback requirements, mandatory noise buffers, ending by-right zoning.
Where are local governments getting ideas for regulating data centers?
A lot of the technical information comes from developers. That can in cases be seen as a biased source of information. I wouldn’t say there’s a dedicated group providing assistance to local governments when a project is proposed — which is a similar story to wind industry development, where we have only a handful of consultants who provide technical advice. It can be really helpful to get a multi-disciplinary approach to hearing information. It can be helpful to have the utility commission, public health folks, those in academia, as well as the developer.
As of right now, especially in rural areas, local governments have a hard task of balancing pushback while getting the most accurate, evidence-based, neutral information to make decisions. That balance can be contentious.
What is the federal government doing on data center policy? How is the Trump administration approaching it?
A few things there. In the early days, the drive was for AI expansion and to be competitive with foreign adversaries. Now due to the amount of public pushback in red and blue localities and a more cautious approach.
I’m not seeing a lot of actual policy movement at this time.
I know the EPA is looking at the chemicals used in cooling data centers because when that water is cycled through the system, some of it is discharged into the water system, so they’re looking at the Toxic Substances and Control Act for monitoring that.
How much of an impact does this minimal federal role have on industry behavior?
Y’know, this isn’t specific to data centers. This is true for all kinds of large-scale development: there’s a need to require some sort of federal monitoring and regulation.
That’s where I see an emerging role for public health. At the federal level, there could be policy movement towards requiring some sort of environmental monitoring at data centers to make sure they’re operating responsibility. Looking at specific water use relative to water availability and what happens when there’s a time of severe, persistent drought. With air quality too — we’ve seen areas where the grid isn’t as reliable so their diesel generators are kicking on more and affecting air quality for residents.
We’re just not seeing all of that right now. We need corporate disclosure.
What do you see as the most important public health impacts from data center development?
It varies by localities. The most discussed obviously is water usage. One thing I’d note about my conversations with folks enthusiastic around emerging tech is, there are still questions that need to be asked about the capacity of localities to support a data center. Like a small town in Kansas may only be using 40% of their water for their utility needs. If a data center came online, how much of that water goes to the data center?
One area underexplored within the public health discipline is energy poverty and energy security. The ability of a household to meet the needs of everything energy provides in our lives. It’s known we have an aging electric grid but we’re not talking enough about large-scale blackouts when the grid is not sufficient to support some of these new data centers.
Plus more of the week’s big development fights.
1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.
2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.
3. Barron County, Wisconsin — The anti-solar protest is the new campaign stop in deep red Wisconsin.
4. Chesapeake, Virginia — A large battery storage project on the Virginia coastline is on the rocks amidst rampant local opposition.
5. Lewis County, West Virginia — West Virginia is now a key battleground in the fight over transmission, as a line spanning all of West Virginia and Maryland — and cutting through Data Center Alley in Virginia — causes compounding consternation.