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On a new World Weather Attribution report, falling battery prices, and another energy milestone for California.
Current conditions: Flash floods killed at least 155 people in Tanzania • Dry conditions are spawning dust devils in western Canada • Ongoing thunderstorms are set to pummel the central U.S. with hail and possible sporadic tornadoes through the weekend.
Rising global temperatures due to carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere exacerbated the deadly flooding in Dubai earlier this month, scientists at the international research initiative World Weather Attribution concluded. Much of the United Arab Emirates lacks drainage infrastructure because rain there is so infrequent, and the unrelenting downpour that inundated the country on April 14 and 15 — toppling its 24-hour rainfall record — came on the heels of a stormy March. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that bouts of intense rainfall are likely to become more common in the Arabian Peninsula.
While the researchers evaluating April’s flood event weren’t able to determine the precise extent to which it had been influenced by climate change, they’re confident that rising temperatures in the ocean and the atmosphere played a role. “While multiple reasons could explain the absence of a trend in our model results,” they wrote, “we have no alternative explanation for a trend in observations other than the expectation of heavy rainfall increasing in a warmer climate.” Experts have challenged early reports that cloud seeding efforts in the UAE were responsible for the unprecedented amounts of rain, and the WWA researchers concluded they did not have “significant influence.”
People walk along an flooded highway on April 18, 2024 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images
California has officially surpassed 10,000 megawatts of battery storage capacity, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office announced Thursday. The state, which leads the nation in installed battery storage, has added almost 4,000 megawatts of storage capacity to the grid in 2024 alone. And it set another storage record last week when batteries briefly became the state’s top source of power. Though Newsom celebrated the progress California has made in building out battery capacity, he also acknowledged that the current level of storage won’t be enough to fully prevent blackouts during heat waves. California aims to install another 42,000 megawatts of battery storage to meet its goal of 100% clean energy by 2045. “We have a lot of work to do still in moving this transition, with the kind of stability that’s required,” Newsom told reporters on Thursday.
Speaking of California, the International Energy Agency expects the cost of building battery storage to plummet in the coming years, aiding the global transition to renewable energy. In its Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions report, released Thursday, the IEA projects that the price of lithium-ion batteries will decline 40% by 2030, and will continue dropping beyond that point thanks to a combination of innovation and the adoption of cheaper grid-scale battery technologies. For the world to meet its renewable energy targets while maintaining the reliability of the grid, energy storage capacity will need to increase six-fold by 2030, according to the report. Decisions made by policymakers and regulators will also shape the rate of battery adoption worldwide.
“The combination of solar PV and batteries is today competitive with new coal plants in India. And just in the next few years, it will be cheaper than new coal in China and gas-fired power in the United States. Batteries are changing the game before our eyes,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
In a move that was mostly overshadowed by its new emissions limits for coal and gas power plants, the Biden administration this week also established new standards intended to eliminate fossil fuels from federal buildings. The Department of Energy will require agencies to reduce fossil fuel use in new buildings and major renovations by 90% from fiscal years 2025 to 2029, and bar such projects from using fossil fuels at all starting in 2030. The rule is part of the administration’s push to achieve net-zero carbon emissions across all federal buildings by 2045. “The Biden-Harris Administration is practicing what we preach. Just as we are helping households and businesses across the nation save money by saving energy, we are doing the same in our own federal buildings,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement.
Conservation measures are successfully slowing the rate of global biodiversity loss, according to a study published in the journal Science on Thursday. The metaanalysis of previous research on the impacts of conservation found that establishing and maintaining protected areas, removing invasive species, preserving ecosystems and combatting habitat destruction led to a significant decline in biodiversity loss, and sometimes an improvement in total biodiversity, even amid the worsening effects of climate change. The study also indicated that conservation actions are frequently “highly effective.” The results suggest that ecosystems around the world could benefit from scaling up conservation efforts.
“If you look only at the trend of species declines, it would be easy to think that we’re failing to protect biodiversity, but you would not be looking at the full picture,” said Penny Langhammer, an adjunct professor of biology at Arizona State University and the study’s lead author, in a news release. “What we show with this paper is that conservation is, in fact, working to halt and reverse biodiversity loss.”
“We want China’s economy to grow,” but “the way China grows matters.” — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to reporters after a meeting in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. While’s China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine was top of the agenda, the two also discussed what the Biden administration sees as unfair trade practices that flood the market with cheap electric vehicles and solar panels.
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Why the new “reasoning” models might gobble up more electricity — at least in the short term
What happens when artificial intelligence takes some time to think?
The newest set of models from OpenAI, o1-mini and o1-preview, exhibit more “reasoning” than existing large language models and associated interfaces, which spit out answers to prompts almost instantaneously.
Instead, the new model will sometimes “think” for as long as a minute or two. “Through training, they learn to refine their thinking process, try different strategies, and recognize their mistakes,” OpenAI announced in a blog post last week. The company said these models perform better than their existing ones on some tasks, especially related to math and science. “This is a significant advancement and represents a new level of AI capability,” the company said.
But is it also a significant advancement in energy usage?
In the short run at least, almost certainly, as spending more time “thinking” and generating more text will require more computing power. As Erik Johannes Husom, a researcher at SINTEF Digital, a Norwegian research organization, told me, “It looks like we’re going to get another acceleration of generative AI’s carbon footprint.”
Discussion of energy use and large language models has been dominated by the gargantuan requirements for “training,” essentially running a massive set of equations through a corpus of text from the internet. This requires hardware on the scale of tens of thousands of graphical processing units and an estimated 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to run.
Training GPT-4 cost “more than” $100 million OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has said; the next generation models will likely cost around $1 billion, according to Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei, a figure that might balloon to $100 billion for further generation models, according to Oracle founder Larry Ellison.
While a huge portion of these costs are hardware, the energy consumption is considerable as well. (Meta reported that when training its Llama 3 models, power would sometimes fluctuate by “tens of megawatts,” enough to power thousands of homes). It’s no wonder that OpenAI’s chief executive Sam Altman has put hundreds of millions of dollars into a fusion company.
But the models are not simply trained, they're used out in the world, generating outputs (think of what ChatGPT spits back at you). This process tends to be comparable to other common activities like streaming Netflix or using a lightbulb. This can be done with different hardware and the process is more distributed and less energy intensive.
As large language models are being developed, most computational power — and therefore most electricity — is used on training, Charlie Snell, a PhD student at University of California at Berkeley who studies artificial intelligence, told me. “For a long time training was the dominant term in computing because people weren’t using models much.” But as these models become more popular, that balance could shift.
“There will be a tipping point depending on the user load, when the total energy consumed by the inference requests is larger than the training,” said Jovan Stojkovic, a graduate student at the University of Illinois who has written about optimizing inference in large language models.
And these new reasoning models could bring that tipping point forward because of how computationally intensive they are.
“The more output a model produces, the more computations it has performed. So, long chain-of-thoughts leads to more energy consumption,” Husom of SINTEF Digital told me.
OpenAI staffers have been downright enthusiastic about the possibilities of having more time to think, seeing it as another breakthrough in artificial intelligence that could lead to subsequent breakthroughs on a range of scientific and mathematical problems. “o1 thinks for seconds, but we aim for future versions to think for hours, days, even weeks. Inference costs will be higher, but what cost would you pay for a new cancer drug? For breakthrough batteries? For a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis? AI can be more than chatbots,” OpenAI researcher Noam Brown tweeted.
But those “hours, days, even weeks” will mean more computation and “there is no doubt that the increased performance requires a lot of computation,” Husom said, along with more carbon emissions.
But Snell told me that might not be the end of the story. It’s possible that over the long term, the overall computing demands for constructing and operating large language models will remain fixed or possibly even decline.
While “the default is that as capabilities increase, demand will increase and there will be more inference,” Snell told me, “maybe we can squeeze reasoning capability into a small model ... Maybe we spend more on inference but it’s a much smaller model.”
OpenAI hints at this possibility, describing their o1-mini as “a smaller model optimized for STEM reasoning,” in contrast to other, larger models that “are pre-trained on vast datasets” and “have broad world knowledge,” which can make them “expensive and slow for real-world applications.” OpenAI is suggesting that a model can know less but think more and deliver comparable or better results to larger models — which might mean more efficient and less energy hungry large language models.
In short, thinking might use less brain power than remembering, even if you think for a very long time.
On Azerbaijan’s plans, offshore wind auctions, and solar jobs
Current conditions: Thousands of firefighters are battling raging blazes in Portugal • Shanghai could be hit by another typhoon this week • More than 18 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours in Carolina Beach, which forecasters say is a one-in-a-thousand-year event.
Azerbaijan, the host of this year’s COP29, today put forward a list of “non-negotiated” initiatives for the November climate summit that will “supplement” the official mandated program. The action plan includes the creation of a new “Climate Finance Action Fun” that will take (voluntary) contributions from fossil fuel producing countries, a call for increasing battery storage capacity, an appeal for a global “truce” during the event, and a declaration aimed at curbing methane emissions from waste (which the Financial Times noted is “only the third most common man-made source of methane, after the energy and agricultural sectors”). The plan makes no mention of furthering efforts to phase out fossil fuels in the energy system.
The Interior Department set a date for an offshore wind energy lease sale in the Gulf of Maine, an area which the government sees as suitable for developing floating offshore wind technology. The auction will take place on October 29 and cover eight areas on the Outer Continental Shelf off Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The area could provide 13 gigawatts of offshore wind energy, if fully developed. The Biden administration has a goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, and has approved about half that amount so far. The DOI’s terms and conditions for the October lease sale include “stipulations designed to promote the development of a robust domestic U.S. supply chain for floating wind.” Floating offshore wind turbines can be deployed in much deeper waters than traditional offshore projects, and could therefore unlock large areas for clean power generation. Last month the government gave the green light for researchers to study floating turbines in the Gulf of Maine.
In other wind news, BP is selling its U.S. onshore wind business, bp Wind Energy. The firm’s 10 wind farm projects have a total generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts and analysts think they could be worth $2 billion. When it comes to renewables, the fossil fuel giant said it is focusing on investing in solar growth, and onshore wind is “not aligned” with those plans.
The number of jobs in the U.S. solar industry last year grew to 279,447, up 6% from 2022, according to a new report from the nonprofit Interstate Renewable Energy Council. Utility-scale solar added 1,888 jobs in 2023, a 6.8% increase and a nice rebound from 2022, when the utility-scale solar market recorded a loss in jobs. The report warns that we might not see the same kind of growth for solar jobs in 2024, though. Residential installations have dropped, and large utility-scale projects are struggling with grid connection. The report’s authors also note that as the industry grows, it faces a shortage of skilled workers.
Interstate Renewable Energy Council
Most employers reported that hiring qualified solar workers was difficult, especially in installation and project development. “It’s difficult because our projects are built in very rural areas where there just aren't a lot of people,” one interviewee who works at a utility-scale solar firm said. “We strive to hire as many local people as possible because we want local communities to feel the economic impact or benefit from our projects. So in some communities where we go, it is difficult to find local people that are skilled and can perform the work.”
The torrential rain that has battered central Europe is tapering off a bit, but the danger of rising water remains. “The massive amounts of rain that fell is now working its way through the river systems and we are starting to see flooding in areas that avoided the worst of the rain,” BBC meteorologist Matt Taylor explained. The Polish city of Nysa told its 44,000 residents to leave yesterday as water rose. In the Czech Republic, 70% of the town of Litovel was submerged in 3 feet of flooding. The death toll from the disaster has risen to 18. Now the forecast is calling for heavy rain in Italy. “The catastrophic rainfall hitting central Europe is exactly what scientists expect with climate change,” Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist with Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, toldThe Guardian.
A recent study examining the effects of London’s ultra-low emissions zone on how students get to school found that a year after the rules came into effect, many students had switched to walking, biking, or taking public transport instead of being driven in private vehicles.
Welcome to Decarbonize Your Life, Heatmap’s special report that aims to help you make decisions in your own life that are better for the climate, better for you, and better for the world we all live in. This is our attempt, in other words, to assist you in living something like a normal life while also making progress in the fight against climate change.
That means making smarter and more informed decisions about how climate change affects your life — and about how your life affects climate change. The point is not what you shouldn’t do (although there is some of that). It’s about what you should do to exert the most leverage on the global economic system and, hopefully, nudge things toward decarbonization just a little bit faster.
We certainly think we’ve hit upon a better way to think about climate action, but you don’t have to take our word for it. Keep reading here for more on how (and why) we think about decarbonizing your life — or just skip ahead to our recommendations, below.