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On betrayed regulatory promises, copper ‘anxiety,’ and Mercedes’ stalled EV plans

Current conditions: New York City is once again choking on Canadian wildfire smoke • Torrential rain is flooding southeastern Slovenia and northern Croatia • Central Asia is bracing for the hottest days of the year, with temperatures nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Uzbekistan’s capital of Tashkent all week.
In May, the Trump administration signaled its plans to gut Energy Star, the energy efficiency certification program administered by the Environmental Protection Agency. Energy Star is extremely popular — its brand is recognized by nearly 90% of Americans — and at a cost to the federal government of just $32 million per year, saves American households upward of $40 billion in energy costs per year as of 2024, for a total of more than $500 billion saved since its launch in 1992, by the EPA’s own estimate. Not only that, as one of Energy Star’s architects told Heatmap’s Jeva Lange back in May, more energy efficient appliances and buildings help reduce strain on the grid. “Think about the growing demands of data center computing and AI models,” RE Tech Advisors’ Deb Cloutier told Jeva. “We need to bring more energy onto the grid and make more space for it.”
That value has clearly resonated with lawmakers on the Hill. Legislators tasked with negotiating appropriations in both the Senate and the House of Representatives last week proposed fully funding Energy Star at $32 million for the next fiscal year. It’s unclear how the House’s decision to go into recess until September will affect the vote, but Ben Evans, the federal legislative director at the U.S. Green Building Council, said the bill is “a major step in the right direction demonstrating that ENERGY STAR has strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.”

The United States installed just under 11 gigawatts of solar panels in the first three months of this year, industry data show. In June alone, China installed nearly 15 gigawatts, PV Tech reported. And, in a detail that demonstrates just how many panels the People’s Republic has been deploying at home in recent years, that represented an 85% drop from the previous month and close to a 40% decline compared to June of last year.
The photovoltaic installation plunge followed Beijing’s rollout of two new policies that changed the renewables business in China. The first, called the 531 policy, undid guaranteed feed-in tariffs and required renewable projects to sell electricity on the spot market. That took effect on June 1. The other, called the 430 policy, took effect on May 1 and mandated that new distributed solar farms consume their own power first before allowing the sale of surplus electricity to the grid. As a result of the stalled installations, a top panel manufacturer warned the trade publication Opis that companies may need to raise prices by as much as 10%.
For years now, Fortescue, the world’s fourth-biggest producer of iron ore, has directed much of the earnings from its mines in northwest Australia and steel mills in China toward building out a global green hydrogen business. But changes to U.S. policy have taken a toll. Last week, Fortescue told investors it was canceling its green hydrogen project in Arizona, which had been set to come online next year. It’s also abandoning its plans for a green hydrogen plant on Australia’s northeastern coast, The Wall Street Journal reported.
“A shift in policy priorities away from green energy has changed the situation in the U.S.,” Gus Pichot, Fortescue’s chief executive of growth and energy, told analysts on a call. “The lack of certainty and a step back in green ambition has stopped the emerging green-energy markets, making it hard for previously feasible projects to proceed.” But green hydrogen isn’t dead everywhere. Just last week, the industrial gas firm Air Liquide made a final decision to invest in a 200-megawatt green hydrogen plant in the Netherlands.
The Trump administration put two high-ranking officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on administrative leave, CNN reported. The reasoning behind the move wasn’t clear, but both officials — Steve Volz, who leads NOAA’s satellites division, and Jeff Dillen, NOAA’s deputy general counsel — headed up the investigation into whether President Donald Trump violated NOAA’s scientific integrity policies during his so-called Sharpiegate scandal.
The incident from September 2019, during Trump’s first term, started when the president incorrectly listed Alabama among the states facing a threat from Hurricane Dorian. Throughout the following week, Trump defended the remark, insisting he had been right, and ultimately showed journalists a weather map that had been altered with a black Sharpie market to show the path of the storm striking Alabama. NOAA’s investigation into the incident concluded that Neil Jacobs, the former agency official who backed Trump at the time and is now nominated to serve as chief, succumbed to political pressure and violated scientific integrity rules.
In March, North Carolina’s Republican-controlled Senate passed a bill to repeal the state’s climate law and scrap the 2030 deadline by which the monopoly utility Duke Energy had to slash its planet-heating emissions by 70% compared to 2005 levels. Governor Josh Stein, a Democrat, vetoed the legislation. But on Tuesday, the GOP majorities in both chambers of the legislature plan to vote to override the veto.
Doing so and enacting the bill could cost North Carolina more than 50,000 jobs annually and cause tens of billions of dollars in lost investments, Canary Media’s Elizabeth Ouzts reported. That’s according to a new study from a consultancy commissioned by clean-energy advocates in the state. The analysis is based on data from the state-sanctioned consumer advocate, Public Staff.
For years, a mystery has puzzled scientists: Why did Neanderthal remains show levels of a nitrogen isotope only seen among carnivores like hyenas and wolves that eat more meat than a hominid could safely consume? New research finally points to an answer: Neanderthals were eating putrefying meat garnished with maggots, said Melanie Beasley, an anthropologist at Purdue University. “When you get the lean meat and the fatty maggot, you have a more complete nutrient that you’re consuming.”
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On Puerto Rico’s grid, West Virginia’s rare earths hub, and China’s trucking fight
Current conditions: Flooding from heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana has killed at least 71 people so far • Barreling northwest of the Philippines, Tropical Depression Henry could strengthen into a storm by this evening • Philadelphia is roasting in 100 degrees Fahrenheit and bracing for thunderstorms as France and Paraguay prepare for Saturday’s World Cup knockout game.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission pitched two sweeping overhauls of the nation’s rules for building atomic power stations. The first proposal calls for replacing a radiation protection standard called As Low as Reasonably Achievable, or ALARA, with hard dose limits. “This rulemaking is raising the bar on clarity in our regulations. It is not lowering the bar on our safety standards,” Ho Nieh, the NRC chairman, told a small group of reporters on a call. “Dose limits for members of the public? They are not changing. We’re just really putting in clarifications on how to address doses below regulatory limits.” The second proposal expands the menu of options available to developers pursuing licensing through one of the NRC’s existing pathways, allowing some novel approaches to weighing the risk of certain technologies to factor into older processes.
The announcement came the same day the Department of Energy reached a milestone in its reactor pilot program. Launched last year, the program set a goal of three of its 10 participating companies building test reactors and splitting atoms for the first time by July 4. On Wednesday, the startup Deployable Energy, which is seeking to commercialize a 1-megawatt reactor, said it had reached criticality on its Unity test reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory, becoming the third developer after fellow microreactor companies Aalo Atomic and Valar Atomics to sustain a chain reaction within its reactor. “Yesterday, we accomplished a significant milestone on a timeline many thought was unachievable,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a statement. “Advanced nuclear technologies like Unity will help power the next generation of American industry, strengthen our energy security, and ensure the United States remains the world’s nuclear innovation leader.”
PJM Interconnection’s struggle to muster up enough electricity generation to meet surging demand from data centers and air conditioners is well known at this point. But the difficulty the nation’s largest power grid system has just predicting how much electricity it will need raises real concerns over whether PJM can keep the lights on. Between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. ET today, demand for electricity in PJM Interconnection could top out at 166 gigawatts, according to the energy consultancy ICF. That’s roughly 10 gigawatts higher than PJM’s projected summertime peak of 156 gigawatts for all of this year. “Because PJM’s planning methodology relies on a rolling 30-year historical weather average, it operates under the assumption that the future will resemble the past,” ICF wrote in a memo. “This modeling creates systemic risk, underestimating the frequency and severity of future extreme weather events.” As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote last month, PJM territories such as New Jersey have seen average bills soar from about $91 to $140 over the past five years, while prices are up some 52%, per data from the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub.
In New York City, meanwhile, Mayor Zohran Mamdani has urged residents in the five boroughs to keep air conditioners set to 78 degrees to conserve electricity and avoid brownouts. “A stable grid means the AC stays on, and lives are saved,” he wrote in a post on X. “Let’s ease demand — and get through the heat — together.” New York’s statewide grid operator has warned for months that the zone that includes New York City and its surrounding suburbs is at risk of outages due to a gap between supply and demand that virtually matches the output of the Indian Point nuclear plant that shut down in 2021.

Of the $14.3 billion the federal government earmarked for the reconstruction of Puerto Rico’s grid, 75% of the funding remains unspent nearly a decade after Hurricane Maria laid waste to the U.S. territory’s electrical system. The Federal Emergency Management Agency alone is sitting on $8.4 billion, and just 400 of the 16,000 miles of transmission and distribution lines that were slated for tree trimming have had overgrown vegetation cleared. That’s all according to the findings of a new report from the Government Accountability Office, an independent federal watchdog within the government. One bright spot for Puerto Ricans has been the success of residential solar panels and batteries in supplying power during frequent outages. But the report notes that the Energy Department canceled up to $350 million in grants for installing solar panels on the homes of disabled and low-income Puerto Ricans. “The GAO report confirms what we’ve been saying for months: This administration’s shortcomings and the lack of coordination among all stakeholders have delayed the disbursement of funds,” Representative Pablo José Hernández Rivera, Puerto Rico’s resident commissioner, a nonvoting delegate to the U.S. Congress, said in a statement. “Puerto Rico needs less division and excuses and more teamwork with results.”
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Last year, Wyoming, the country’s top coal-producing state, announced that its first new coal mine to open in decades would also produce rare earths. Now West Virginia, where the waning coal industry nevertheless remains a central part of the culture and economy, is getting in on the rare earths game. On Wednesday, an investment company led by the Trump administration’s former critical minerals czar unveiled plans to develop a new hub for refining rare earths out of ore in Rupert, a tiny mountain town in southeastern West Virginia. The project is being developed by the White House and led by Drew Horn, who worked as an adviser to the Energy Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence during Trump’s first term. Described as a “partnership,” the deal includes the Houston-based rare earths refiner Flash Metals USA, the industrial giant AmForge, and the Greenbrier Smokeless Coal Company, which already operates a metallurgical coal mine in Rupert.
“The initiative is backed entirely by private investment — not state government subsidies, taxpayer funding, or state incentives,” GreenMet, the investment company leading the project, said in a statement. “Instead, private investors recognized West Virginia’s abundant natural resources, skilled workforce, and strategic advantages, committing approximately $150 million to launch this first-of-its-kind processing hub.” While the future refineries aim to extract traces of rare earths left behind in coal mine waste, the project has already secured deals to buy more ore from Greenland, Canada, and Cameroon to beef up its output.
There was once a time when hydrogen fuel cells seemed like a serious rival to lithium battery packs as the energy source to power future passenger vehicles. But over the past decade, battery-powered electric vehicles won the market as prices came down and the infrastructure for buying hydrogen fuel lagged. Still, the limits of batteries — which are already very heavy in passenger cars, and weigh multiple tons when large enough to propel trucks — to affordably power tractor-trailer trucks seemed to leave the heavy-duty vehicle market open to hydrogen. But an article in the in-house magazine of Sinopec, China’s state-owned oil company, now calls into question hydrogen’s future in trucking in the People’s Republic, which has one of the most built-out networks for using the technology anywhere in the world. “In the past, it was generally assumed that electric vehicles would replace gasoline and hydrogen vehicles would replace diesel,” the Mandarin-language article reads, according to a translation I ran through Claude. “But with advances in EV technology and the development of charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, the traditional hydrogen vehicle scenarios of ‘medium-to-heavy loads and long range’ are now also trending toward being taken over by battery-electric heavy trucks.”
Meanwhile, in the inland Henan province, a pair of deep geothermal wells were connected to create a closed-loop system. The wells, dug nearly 11,500 feet deep, reach a temperature of nearly 245 degrees Fahrenheit. Once completed, the wells will be part of seven separate systems designed by developer Wanjiang New Energy to provide district heating. The technology, Think Geo Energy noted, “unavoidably draws comparisons to the closed-loop geothermal technology designed and built by Eavor Technologies,” whose CEO Mark Fitzgerald joined Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast last year.
Build Your Dreams? More like Beat Your Deliveries. Chinese auto giant BYD delivered 557,090 fully electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2026 — trouncing the roughly 400,000 deliveries Tesla is expected to report for the same quarter, according to Electrek. We’ll find out later today when Tesla announces its latest earnings.
Plus, Google and Amazon report on what hyperscaling has done to their emissions.
There’s an interesting new report out today from the progressive think tank Groundwork Collaborative that makes a case for how Democrats can harness the artificial intelligence and data center boom to help the power grid — while also cutting costs for electricity customers.
But first, some news. We’ve known for some time now that artificial intelligence is transforming America’s biggest technology companies, turning them into major energy consumers and even quasi-industrial firms. Now we have even more evidence that it’s driving up their carbon emissions, too.
Google and Amazon released their annual sustainability reports yesterday, and both show huge surges in their energy use and climate pollution. Google’s greenhouse gas pollution grew by 18% last year, its largest year-over-year jump on record, and its energy use leapt by 37%. The company’s energy use rose by more than a quarter last year; it now uses roughly 3.5 times as much energy as it did before the pandemic.
Amazon’s climate pollution, meanwhile, increased by more than 16%, surging by the equivalent of more than 10 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Emissions from its purchased electricity increased 34% since last year. If you feel like you’re seeing more Rivian-made Amazon delivery vans on the road, you’re not wrong: The company claims it deployed an additional 21,000 last year.
What’s driving this surge? The AI boom, of course. “Our AI infrastructure buildout is currently accelerating faster than the grid is decarbonizing,” Kate Brandt, Google’s chief sustainability officer, said in a statement.
What to do about it? That’s what Groundwork’s report is about.
“How do we bring down costs now? How do we bring down costs in the long term? And how can we make those two things mutually reinforcing?” Grayson Flood, the report’s author and a former policy adviser to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, told me. “We wanted to be pretty direct about addressing what we see as a broken incentive structure within the system, particularly for interregional transmission.”
The report outlines a few novel ideas about how to lower prices immediately, in part to get through a coming multi-year “crunch,” during which the power grid in some regions will be maximally constrained while utilities work to bring new power plants online:
The report also imagines several policy ideas to help build out the grid. One of them is a Grid Trust Fund, a new federal bank account funded through an excise tax on data centers and other large electricity loads.
The government has often turned to funds like these to support infrastructure that creates a natural monopoly at national scale, Flood said. “The interstate highway is the most notorious example, but you can look at airports, you can look at seaports — they have these types of trust funds. There’s a lot of precedent for this in the tax code, and they tend to be financed with excise taxes on some sort of corresponding usage of the infrastructure.”
Under his scheme, the new excise tax would fall on big power users like data centers or crypto miners that don’t generate many permanent local jobs — in other words, aluminum smelters, steel mills, and semiconductor fabs would be exempt from it. But even just taxing electricity for large loads at 1 or 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, he said, could throw off more than $100 billion in a decade. That money could then be used to fund new transmission projects, technical assistance for utilities, ratepayer relief, or economic development.
That trust fund would be partly overseen by a National Power Authority, a new government corporation modeled on the Tennessee Valley Authority or the Energy Department’s existing power marketing administrations. This authority would have limited powers and would be partly inspired by Texas’ successful effort to centrally plan transmission lines in order to expand its electricity market.
The new authority would plan and develop interregional transmission, linking far-flung regions of the country to create new power markets. It would also have the power to build new 24/7 zero-carbon electricity power plants with high up-front capital costs, such as new geothermal projects, offshore wind farms, or nuclear plants.
“People talk about the power grid as a platform,” Flood said. But “right now, the grid is not functioning as a backbone and platform, it’s functioning as a bottleneck.”
The goal of the report, he said, is to ask: “How do we build [the power grid] as a backbone to support the growth of private markets, whether that’s in renewable energy generation, or an AI data center, or a new hospital that’s showing up?”
It’s an interesting document. Many energy wonks have proposed plans to shift some of the costs of expanding the electricity system out of the ratebase — that is, out of customers’ power bills — and onto the tax base, which is funded in a more progressive way. (I recently argued for a national, publicly funded grid buildout in The New York Times.) The new Groundwork report, in essence, tries to reframe those ideas for an era of populist politics — and one in which Americans are suspicious of data centers, as Heatmap’s polling has shown.
In its fusion of populist and pro-growth attitudes, this new set of proposals reminds me of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s attempt to freeze the rent for some tenants while passing major supply-side reforms allowing new housing construction. That effort has won Mamdani praise from many housing advocates in New York (even as some remain dubious about his de facto rent freeze). Whether that kind of politics works at a national level remains to be seen.
The bill is part of a package now sitting on Governor Mikie Sherrill’s desk.
Data center politics are continuing to evolve rapidly, and almost always in the direction of increasing costs and restrictions for data center development.
In New Jersey, which has become ground zero for the political backlash to high electricity prices, a gaggle of bills relating to data centers and electricity prices just hit the desk of newly elected Governor Mikie Sherrill, including a large load tariff bill, a water and energy reporting bill, and a bill to scale back tax credits available to data center projects.
All of these pieces of legislation are consistent with national and local trends (federal regulators are encouraging regional electricity markets to come up with large load tariffs, for example), with tax credits getting an especially close look in statehouses across the country.
Thirty-eight states have “ dedicated tax incentives for data centers,” according to an April study by the National Conference on State Legislatures. These often include exemptions from sales taxes for data center equipment like servers and routers, or property tax abatements for newly constructed data centers.
In Virginia, which last year elected Sherrill’s former House colleague Abigail Spanberger as governor, the sales tax exemption has become a hot issue of political contestation, as powerful Virginia State Senator Louise Lucas has come out in opposition to it. A budget deal recently reached in the state’s General Assembly included a tax on data center electricity consumption, while the data center tax exemption question will be kicked to a working group for now, according to the Virginia Mercury.
The New Jersey bill currently on the governor’s desk targets a tax credit program called Next New Jersey, which has some $500 million to disburse for tax credits. Half of that has been allocated for a CoreWeave data center project on the site of an existing laboratory, State Senator Joseph Cryan told me. The remaining $250 million would be used to bolster a number of existing state programs.
“The reason for eliminating it was, frankly, because people are outraged over the amount of money CoreWeave got,” Cryan said.
CoreWeave did not respond to a request for comment. A Sherill spokesperson didn’t comment on the record about when or whether the bills would be signed.
New Jersey and Virginia’s examination of tax credits comes after another state with a Democratic governor, Illinois, paused tax incentives for data centers that had been worth almost $1 billion in the first five years of this decade.
The turn against tax incentives for data centers comes as the public is increasingly wary of the latter and their perceived effect on electricity prices. This turn in sentiment has forced governors — like, say, Indiana Governor Mike Braun — to pivot away from their typical cheerleading for new businesses.
“States are very focused on attracting industries of the future, attracting jobs for their residents, attracting business,” Justin Balik, a former economic development official in New Jersey and vice president for states at the climate group Evergreen Action, told me. But, he asked, “Does the economic development strategy for a state reflect its other policy priorities?”
New Jersey itself is an example of how quickly the politics of economic development can turn. When the bill establishing the Next New Jersey program passed in 2024, then-Governor Phil Murphy trumpeted the bill for “capitalizing on this moment to ensure we establish ourselves as a frontrunner in generative AI innovation.”
“AI has already started to revolutionize our everyday lives, and New Jersey is capitalizing on this moment to ensure we establish ourselves as a frontrunner in generative AI innovation,” Murphy said in a statement typical of the more boosterist era of, uhhh, two years ago. “AI will be a transformative industry that will change lives and grow our economy and New Jersey is ready to take the lead.”
That was in July 2024. Now it’s July 2026. Electricity bills in New Jersey have gone up from $108 per month in May 2024 to $140 this past May, according to the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub, while rates have gone up some 38%. And while it’s often difficult to attribute electricity rate hikes directly to data center development — or even determine whether data centers raise rates at all — New Jersey, which is part of the PJM Interconnection electricity market, is almost certainly seeing hikes due to data center construction. PJM has struggled to bring on new generation or adequate transmission, and its own market monitor said in March that “data center load growth is the primary reason for recent and expected capacity market conditions, including total forecast load growth, the tight supply and demand balance, and high prices.”
The conditions have forced lawmakers to reconsider their typical bias toward economic development, Balik told me. “I think we’re seeing a moment where there’s a reckoning with the energy affordability conversation,” he said, “Where folks are rightly saying, hey, we care about clean energy in some cases, and in a lot of cases we care about energy affordability. Does our economic development strategy match those priorities, or are these two things at odds with each other?”
Cryan, the state senator, put it more bluntly: “The reason for doing it was to show the public that we hear their outrage and can do something about it,” he said. “The governor and the legislature have heard the voices of the people of New Jersey.”