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Much of the southern United States is in an extended heat wave, with no end in sight until at least the end of the month. Phoenix, Arizona, just experienced its 19th consecutive day of heat over 110 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, setting a new record. People are getting third degree burns from the pavement. Even in comparatively mild Connecticut, country star Jason Aldean recently fled the stage due to heat stroke.
But the extreme and prolonged heat of a warming world is not just a threat to our physical health. It’s also trying us psychologically, whether you’re lucky enough to be cooped up inside, handcuffed to your air conditioner, or forced to brave the outdoors.
One 2018 study looked at the correlation between heat waves and deaths by suicide and found that monthly suicide rates rose more than 2% due to temperature in the hottest months between 1968 and 2004. The authors also collected more than 600 million Twitter posts published over the course of about a year beginning in May 2014 and found more instances of depressive language like “lonely,” “trapped” or “suicidal” when temperatures rose.
Another study published last year looked at emergency room visits for mental health throughout the United States during the summer months between 2010 and 2019. The researchers found a 5% to 10% increase in visits on the hottest days. The association held true across a wide range of conditions, including substance use disorders, childhood-onset behavioral anxiety disorders like ADHD, schizophrenia, and self-harm.
Amruta Nori-Sarma, the lead author of that study and an assistant professor at the Boston University School of Public Health, told me that the study only includes those covered by commercial insurance providers, and may be underestimating the problem.
“I think we’re potentially missing very vulnerable people,” she said. “Folks who are on Medicare, Medicaid, or people who don’t have health insurance.”
While the study did not assess causes, the authors hypothesize that one factor may be disruptions to sleep due to heat. They cite another paper which found an association between higher nighttime temperatures and self-reported nights of insufficient sleep. Heat can also trigger physiological responses that exacerbate mental health conditions, like the release of stress hormones that send your body into fight or flight mode. Psychiatric medicines can affect how your body regulates temperature, and dehydration has been linked to increased anxiety and impaired cognitive function.
When people ask her what they can do, Nori-Sarma said to rely on social networks. If you know someone who might be vulnerable, check in on them and make sure they are doing okay, she said.
But while we are starting to understand the effects of extreme heat on people who have some of the most severe forms of mental illness, we still know very little about what those with general anxiety or other less acute conditions experience, Nori-Sarma told me. “If we want to intervene and try and reduce the impacts of heat exposure, it might be good to know, earlier in that pathway, where we could potentially help people,” said Nori-Sarma, “so they don’t end up needing to go to the emergency department.”
I asked Anna Graybeal, a psychologist based in Austin, Texas, one of the cities hit hard by this summer’s extended heat wave, whether any of her patients were struggling due to the heat. At first she said no, and hypothesized that people who can afford therapy are generally also able to stay in air conditioning most of the time. She wondered aloud what would happen if the power went out, noting that during the 2021 winter blackout in Texas, when much of the state was stranded without heat during freezing temperatures, many of her patients were stressed and scared.
But then she remembered that one patient had actually brought up the heat in a session that morning, expressing frustration about their inability to exercise outdoors, which they felt was crucial to regulating their mental health.
But for the most part, the main way heat comes up in her sessions is in discussions about climate anxiety. Graybeal is part of the Climate Psychology Alliance and trains other providers to work with clients who are worried about climate change.
When asked what people can do if they are experiencing anxiety related to heat or global warming, Graybeal encourages talking about it, whether that’s with a therapist, friends, family, or in a group therapy setting. “It’s so important to talk to other people because, when it comes down to it, our relationships are almost always what matters most to us over the course of our lives,” she said. “So in this time of existential crisis, we need to talk with others so we aren‘t alone with the dreadful feelings, but instead feel understood, cared about, and connected.”
Graybeal added that if you’re in distress, it’s always important to give extra attention to habits of self care, like sleeping, exercising, and eating well. “And then bring in some kind of practice of mental or emotional self care, like meditation, or breathing and relaxation techniques,” she said. “In general that will help almost anyone.”
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The buzzy clean energy tax credit marketplace expanded into debt right in the nick of time.
The Inflation Reduction Act opened up a whole new avenue for project financing when it allowed clean energy developers to sell the tax credits that they earned on their projects to any willing buyer on the open market. It also opened up a lucrative fintech opportunity: A digital marketplace where buyers and sellers of these credits could easily transact.
One of the first — and certainly most successful — startups to jump on this opportunity was Crux Climate. But by the time Crux announced its $50 million Series B funding round last month, however, some Congressional Republicans were already considering axing tax credit transferability in their budget proposal. Then last week, the House of Representatives’ Ways and Means committee followed through on this rumored threat, proposing a plan to get rid of transferability for all credits by 2028 (though the details are still in flux). So what’s to become of Crux now?
Everything’s going to be okay, Crux’s co-founder CEO Alfred Johnson told me late last week. In fact, “the business is in great shape,” he said. I was a tad confused. But as Johnson reminded me, the company always planned on being more than a mere tax credit marketplace. The question is whether developers will buy into this vision of Crux as the everything store for project financing.
In March, right before the company announced its Series B, Crux launched a debt marketplace, where developers and manufacturers can access financial tools such as short-term bridge loans, construction financing, and flexible lines of credit to fund the buildout of renewables projects. “The market size for transferable credits is $30 billion per year, while the market size for project finance debt is more than seven-and-half times as big: $230 billion,” Johnson told me.
This new offering may have come just in the nick of time. It’s also likely just the first in a series of platform expansions, some of which are already in the works.
“There are many more multibillion-dollar markets among the thousands of developers, manufacturers, investors, and corporate buyers that make up the market for U.S. energy and manufacturing project finance,” Johnson told me. Playing in all those markets is a lofty goal for a company that was founded just two years ago, but so far Crux has been good at defying expectations. After all, it’s been profitable since its second year, Johnson told me, a rare and rapid rise for an early-stage startup.
Crux shared some exclusive numbers with me that illustrate some ways in which it’s starting to outgrow its roots. For one, Johnson told me that Crux’s revenue for the first one-and-a-half quarters of this year is nearly 10 times higher than for the same period last year. While he wouldn’t reveal what portion of that was comprised of tax credit deals versus debt financing deals, he did say that in the two months since the debt marketplace launched, “lenders have issued $1.3 billion of term sheets.” Those are nonbinding loan offers, $700 million of which have turned into actual deals so far. “It took more than a year for the tax credit market to reach similar throughput," Johnson said.
In the meantime, Crux is by no means giving up on the embattled transferable tax credit marketplace. The company sounded a relatively optimistic note last week as it published a list of takeaways from the Ways and Means Committee’s proposal, stating, “This is the starting point and we anticipate that the final bill will take a more favorable stance on transferability and tax credits.” The company looks like it’s preparing to fight for that outcome, too, as a few months ago it hired new teams of tax lobbyists and brought on Hasan Nazar, former federal policy lead at Tesla, to direct these lobbying efforts.
Johnson said that the debut of Crux’s debt marketplace had developers, manufacturers, and investors rushing to its website in numbers not seen since the company launched. It logged more “inbound interest” on that one day in March than when it announced its Series A and its Series B — that is, more than on both of those days combined.
“We didn’t invest in Crux with the belief that this would be a transferable tax credit business forever,” David Haber, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, told me. The venture capital firm led the company’s $18.2 million Series A funding round. “We viewed that as a great wedge product to bootstrap a financial exchange that could help facilitate the types of financial products needed for this ecosystem,” he said. Clay Dumas of Lowercarbon Capital, which led Crux’s Series B, also saw the company as a so-called “wedge” into a “multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity to finance energy and advanced manufacturing through debt and a wide range of other products.”
Not all investors felt as confident that companies built around tax credit transferability could become a one-stop financing shop, however. As of now, most of Crux’s direct competitors — such as Basis Climate, Reunion Infrastructure, and Common Forge — haven’t expanded into other parts of the climate capital stack.
“We know the fundamental risk that a stroke of the pen can have in any of these sort of marketplaces,” Juan Muldoon, a partner at the climate software VC firm Energize Capital, told me. Thus far, Energize has not funded any tax credit-based marketplace, diligence platform, or underwriting tool. “We wanted to wait for signs of resilience and more complete platforms, more complete business models, versus solving for things that might be more transient in value,” Muldoon said. Last week’s committee proposals validate Energize’s core investment strategy, he added — supporting nimble software companies that can withstand political headwinds and change tacks quickly.
Crux certainly hopes that expanding into the debt market will put any fears of its potential transience to rest. After all, Johnson told me, “all parts of the capital stack are opaque, illiquid, bespoke and manual.” That includes not only transferable tax credits, but also debt and equity financing. “These are private transactions that require a ton of documentation, models, advisory lawyers. But it doesn't have to be as bad as it is,” he said.
But if the transferable tax credits do indeed disappear, many renewable energy developers may be forced to return to one of the most opaque funding mechanisms of all: tax equity financing, which Crux is not currently set up to facilitate. As my colleague Emily Pontecorvo recently explained, prior to the passage of the IRA, renewable energy developers who wanted to liquidate their tax credits had to partner with tax equity investors — usually banks — who would give them cash in exchange for an equity stake in their clean energy project and the benefits of their tax credits. But forming these types of partnerships is both legally complicated and costly, and thus not a viable option for many smaller developers.
Presumably, Crux could shake up and simplify this space, too. And while it’s made no official commitments to a tax equity product, the company’s website has been reconfigured to advertise it as the go-to platform to “source new opportunities for lending, equity, and tax credit transfers,” as it commits to “financing the future of energy.”
Crux has its work cut out for it, though, as often the more complex the financial transaction, the more customized it must be. “The competitors are offline advisors for the most part,” Haber told me. Thus, standardizing and digitizing as many esoteric and project specific elements of the capital stack as possible is going to be, as he put it, “their opportunity and their challenge.”
Johnson says Crux is up for it. “It’s never going to be, you know, one click buy it on Amazon. That’s a ridiculous and implausible concept for deals of this size and importance. But these negotiations and transactions can be so much better.” Efficiency, at the very least, seems to be something we can all get behind. So as the partisan fighting over tax credits and transferability commences and the clean energy incentives start to fall, maybe at least this one climate tech darling can weather the storm.
Direct air capture isn’t doing everything its advocates promised — yet. That doesn’t make it a scam.
Two events last week thrust direct air capture carbon removal into the spotlight — one promising, though controversial for some, the other mendacious and ill-informed.
On Friday, Occidental announced a potential $500 million joint venture investment from Adnoc’s XRG, the lower-carbon investment wing for the United Arab Emirates state-run oil company in Oxy’s South Texas DAC Hub project. The facility is part of the $3.5 billion federal DAC hubs program created through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Although the DAC hubs program has strong bipartisan support, it has faced relative uncertainty under the new administration, calling into question American leadership on the future of the industry.
Earlier in the week, Climeworks, another major DAC hubs award winner, announced a reduction in force, due in part to “pending clarity for our next plant in the U.S.” Coupled with this news, a sensationalized exposé by Icelandic news outlet Heimildin detailed challenges with the first two Climeworks facilities, including commentary that called both the company and the technology a “scam” and the “Theranos of the energy industry.”
DAC has never been entirely welcome among climate advocates. To a certain extent, its critics are right: The process of pulling carbon directly out of the ambient air and storing it permanently underground is both energy- and capital-intensive, and it has obvious utility for the oil and gas industry, which has seized on DAC’s potential to erase past emissions as a way to argue that the transition away from fossil energy isn’t actually necessary.
But these critics start to lose the thread when they call the technology a “fig leaf” for oil and gas or an “expensive, dangerous distraction,” and most egregiously when they point to the lack of actual carbon dioxide removed using the technology as an argument against future deployments.
There is a scientific consensus behind the need for carbon dioxide removal that these critiques dance around. As the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lays out in its most recent scientific report, “CDR is required to limit warming to 1.5 [degrees Celsius],” and is “part of all modeled scenarios that limit warming to 2 [degrees] by 2100.” Even when critics recognize the need for permanent CDR, they frequently fail to provide any plausible pathway to gigaton scale. The fact is that DAC doesn’t have an established, liquid market, like electricity, steel, cement, or any other commodity. That any one DAC business is struggling as it attempts to scale is not an indictment of the company, but rather an illustration of the challenge it is taking on to commercialize a first-of-a-kind technologies that naturally has first-of-a-kind issues while also building a brand new market for the crucial climate service it provides. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.
The commercial model for the nascent CDR industry is largely the sale of carbon removal credits for delivery in future years. This isn’t unique to CDR — it’s even analogous to the power purchase agreements that scaled renewable energy. Futures contracts are standard practice, and certainly not indicative of a “scam.”
DAC’s high energy needs are frequently cited as a reason for concern among skeptics. As the Princeton Net Zero America study notes, however, the total energy needed to reduce emissions in a net-zero system without DAC increases because we would need more power to produce e-fuels. (Jesse Jenkins, one of the leaders of the Net Zero America study, is also a co-host of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast.) This criticism also fails to take into account the reduction in energy intensity that companies are already achieving by various means. That group includes Climeworks, which has introduced more efficient sorbents; Heirloom, which is working on deploying passive mineralization; and Holocene, which was recently acquired by Oxy and employs the low regeneration temperature solvents.
The costs and efficiency of DAC today, just like the cost and efficiency of solar 20 years ago, are likely to improve significantly in the future as the technology and market become more efficient and reliable. Early DAC deployments may have a relatively high cost now, but even today, DAC is cost-competitive with emissions mitigation in aviation.
The industry currently stands at a precipice. Will DAC cross the chasm from pilot facilities to meaningful deployment? Or fall off the hype wagon into the dustbin of cool ideas that were always 10 years away? Beneath the innuendo and false claims, the reporting from Reykjavik shows what everyone in DAC knew — that it has a messy, non-linear path to scale. That does not disprove the argument that it is also a necessary technology that is not only valuable to remove emissions, but also is drawing billions in investment, and driving local economic development.
And there is plenty of good news. The XRG joint venture with Adnoc shows that a sophisticated strategic investor views American DAC as promising. (The local South Texas community is excited, too.) The Oxy Stratos facility in West Texas has already brought thousands of new construction jobs, and will bring hundreds of more permanent jobs to the heart of oil country — a new industry to make use of their unique and valuable skill sets. Project Bantam, a multi-modal operation that was the largest in the U.S. when it launched last summer, is operating in Oklahoma.
The Heimildin story was written to be a salacious takedown, and DAC opponents wasted no time in saying, “We told you so.” The issue with that reaction is the story isn’t unique to Climeworks, or even to DAC. The same story could have been written 20 years ago about solar and batteries. It could be written tomorrow about advanced geothermal or long-duration energy storage. It is the boring, mundane outcome of trying to build a difficult technology with the policy and business hand we are dealt.
The road to DAC at scale will be scattered with bumps, failed projects, and folded companies. We should be cheering these folks on, not taking shots from the cheap, increasingly warm seats.
On budget negotiations, Climeworks, and a decline in shale
Current conditions: The chance of tornadoes continues through Tuesday in the Great Plains, Midwest, and South after weekend storms in the central U.S. killed at least 27 • The uncontained 18,000-acre Greer Fire in eastern Arizona is now encroaching on the towns of Greer, South Fork, and Eagar • No tropical cyclones have formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere yet this year. The average by May 19 is 3.5.
Late Sunday evening, lawmakers on the House Budget Committee reconvened to advance the reconciliation bill in a rare weekend vote. The package had initially failed to progress in a vote on Friday after Republican hardliners, including members of the House Freedom Caucus, expressed concerns that it did not go far enough to reduce the nation’s budget deficit. Though the package is still under negotiation — the four holdouts from Friday voted “present” to express their continued dissatisfaction — Politico reports that “Republican leaders put their commitments to the GOP holdouts in writing.” Per Punchbowl, that included House Speaker Mike Johnson proposing “a quicker phase-out of clean energy tax credits that were put into law as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Republican leaders tentatively agreed to cut off all credits by 2028.”
We’ve been closely following what such cuts — such as erasing the electric vehicle tax credit and others for energy efficiency, heat pumps, and rooftop solar, as well as deep cuts to clean energy programs — would do to the IRA. As things stand, Johnson has “a bruising negotiation ahead” as conservatives and moderate Republicans, especially those from states that have been significant beneficiaries of the economic and job-creating upsides of the IRA, remain at odds. The House Rules Committee will hold its hearing on the package on Wednesday morning at 1 a.m. — not a typo — with Republican leadership “warning us that they won’t send members home for the Memorial Day recess until the House passes the reconciliation bill,” Punchbowl writes.
The Mammoth carbon removal plant.John Moore/Getty Images
The Swiss carbon removal company Climeworks allegedly fails to capture enough carbon even to offset its own emissions, an investigation by the Icelandic newspaper Heimildin found. According to the report, since Climeworks began operations in Iceland, “it has captured a maximum of 1,000 tons of CO2 in one year” — not enough to offset its emissions of 1,700 tons of CO2 in 2023. Climeworks operates two plants in Iceland: Orca and the recently opened Mammoth, which together have captured 2,400 tons of CO2, per the report. The goal is for Mammoth to capture more than 36,000 tons per year by the time it is fully installed later in 2025.
Last week, we covered in AM that Climeworks is preparing for significant cuts to its workforce. While the company confirmed those reports, its founder, Jan Wurzbacher, pushed back on Heimildin’s investigation on LinkedIn, writing that Orca and Mammoth have together captured 1,058 tons of net CO2, explaining that “the difference between theoretical and actual output is due to various factors such as planned and unplanned down-times, weather, filtering losses” and additionally, that Mammoth is “still under ramp-up.” In a fact-check on Twitter, Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, formerly of Breakthrough Energy, added that “operational challenges are to be expected with scale up of any technology, let alone one as nascent and challenging as DAC,” but that Heimildin’s report also “clearly shows the challenges of scaling a necessary climate technology that doesn’t have a market.”
Despite his calls to “drill, baby, drill,” President Trump “is set to preside over a decline in shale production,” with U.S. oil executives warning that the industry is at a “tipping point,”The Wall Street Journal reports. Though crude oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, S&P Global Commodities Insights expects production to dip by 13.33 million barrels a day next year, or about 1%.
Trump’s tariffs and OPEC’s recent decision to accelerate oil production are expected to add to the decline in U.S. oil. Production in the Permian Basin was already slowing, and with oil prices around $62.49 a barrel — well below the $85 benchmark one driller said would “encourage new drilling” — many companies are “reluctant to drill through low prices,” the Journal adds. Oil and gas production in the U.S. emits more than 6 million tons of methane per year, Stanford researchers have found, with nearly 10% of the total methane volume produced in the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin alone going straight into the atmosphere.
The offshore wind industry is preparing to take a “more aggressive approach” in response to the Trump administration’s nearly all-out halt of permits, the Financial Times reports. While the industry had initially “opted for a passive approach” to then-candidate Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail, FT notes that companies and industry groups have since increased spending — especially in light of the administration’s decision to cancel Equinor’s Empire Wind project south of Long Island. “The only way out is through,” Liz Burdock, the chief executive of the Oceanic Network, said at an offshore wind conference last week, adding: “It’s time we respond with strength.”
The Tesla Cybertruck is no longer the best-selling electric pickup truck in the United States, InsideEVs reports. Despite selling 39,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, Tesla has seen a company-wide slowdown as CEO Elon Musk’s popularity has cratered with his involvement in the Trump administration’s federal layoffs and program cancellations. In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla registered 7,126 Cybertrucks — falling behind the Ford F-150, which had 7,913 registrations, followed in turn by the Chevrolet Silverado EV in third place, then the GMC Sierra EV, and the Rivian R1T. At the same time, “celebrations aren’t exactly welcome,” InsideEVs writes, “seeing how even the best-selling EV truck in the U.S. has struggled to move over 7,000 units in three months.”
Electric and biodiesel-powered ambulances in New York City have brought the city’s alternative-powered vehicles to 21,500, or more than 75% of the entire fleet. Fire Commissioner Robert Tucker said the next goal was to “eventually rush to emergencies in electric fire trucks,” Gothamist reports.