Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

How Hurricane Idalia Snuck Up on Florida

The surprises might not be over yet, either.

Hurricane Idalia.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Some 20 million Americans woke up on Monday to the news that they have just one full day to prepare for Tropical Storm Idalia, which is expected to strengthen into the first major U.S. hurricane of the season this week. The “nasty” weather is likely to begin in Florida on Tuesday night, ahead of landfall on Wednesday morning.

Though meteorologists had been carefully watching Idalia — née Invest 93L — since at least Wednesday, the storm’s rapid intensification has taken even forecasters by surprise. Idalia had grown into a tropical depression by Saturday, fully a day or two ahead of schedule, only for a NOAA reconnaissance flight on Sunday to discover it was already gusting at 65-mile-per-hour — enough for it to promptly be given status as a named tropical storm. Newly minted Idalia then intensified even further overnight on Sunday. New models show it will grow from a Category 1 hurricane on Monday night into a full-blown Category 3 hurricane “just 24 hours later.”

Needless to say, Idalia has everyone jumpy. Part of that is superstition: Storms with names that start with the letter "I" are the most frequently retired. But it also looks like Idalia is the real deal: “The number one rule of this column is not to pull the fire alarm unless there is a fire,” meteorologist Ryan Truchelut wrote for his newsletter WeatherTiger on Sunday. “Idalia is a fire. I’m pulling the alarm.” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stressed similar urgency in an early morning news conference on Monday: “This is going to be a major hurricane,” he said, adding, “Floridians, you need to be executing your plans now. Late Tuesday, early Wednesday, it’s going to start to get really nasty.”

In an age of sophisticated weather modeling, the rapid intensification of Idalia feels like the hurricane snuck up on us. Sure enough, conditions like the record-warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures — which Axios describes as “the equivalent of a powder keg for hurricane energy” — have some experts cautioning we might not have exhausted all of Idalia’s surprises just yet.

Here are some of the most concerning variables as the storm approaches the coast.

The water temperature

The biggest reason to watch Idalia carefully is that it’s churning over some seriously deep warm water. The Gulf of Mexico has averaged a temperature of about 88 degrees Fahrenheit this month, which is 2.6 degrees above normal. For context, just a 1-degree rise in ocean temperature can bump up a hurricane’s winds by 15 to 20 miles per hour, meaning Idalia is essentially running on “rocket fuel,” Yale Climate Connections warns.

So we know Idalia will have ample fuel, but we don’t quite know what that means yet, since “storm intensity forecasts are notoriously hard to make, especially more than a day in advance,” as Andrew Freedman writes for Axios. But deadly Hurricanes Ian and Michael also rapidly intensified over warm waters, and “Idalia is likely to encounter waters even hotter” than they did.

Though climate change caused by human activities doesn’t increase the frequency of hurricanes, warmer oceans mean the ones that form tend to be more intense, slow, and destructive. Earlier this month, the National Hurricane Center updated its 2023 outlook from a “near-normal” season to an “above-normal” season, anticipating two to five major hurricanes. Oh, and in case you were wondering: The Atlantic, where Hurricane Franklin is chugging toward Bermuda, is really hot, too.

The tides

The biggest threat to life from to-be Hurricane Idalia looks like it will be from the storm surge. Though conditions can still worsen — particularly with a storm as seemingly unpredictable and rapidly intensifying as this one — emergency officials aren’t suggesting people in the storm’s path flee altogether, just that they get to higher grounds ASAP. “Evacuate tens of miles, not hundreds of miles,” the Executive Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management Kevin Guthrie said.

One reason for the storm surge danger is because of the region’s “bathymetry,” meteorologist Matthew Cappucci tweeted. That is to say, the slope of the sea floor can lead to water “piling” up against the coast and being pushed inland. On top of that, emergency officials are closely watching the tides; as Florida Today notes, this week’s supermoon is making high tides even higher.

The trajectory

Hurricanes that approach the west coast of Florida can be “notoriously challenging” to track because of their angle, Yale Climate Connections writes. “[O]nly a slight nudge in trajectory to the right or left can change the landfall location by 50 or 100 miles.”

Idalia’s trajectory will become increasingly clear as it moves closer and closer to shore, but in the meantime, emergency officials are urging everyone both within and without the cone to be prepared for the storm. Notably, the storm surge in particular will impact areas outside of where Idalia directly hits:

Foiled emergency preparations

One rule of thumb for hurricane season is to always keep half a tank of gas in your car. But on Sunday afternoon, Florida reported contaminated gasoline and diesel had been sold from at least 29 stations in the state in a corridor potentially stretching from Brooksville south to Fort Myers.

The contaminated gas could “increase the chances of drivers getting stranded” while “generators used in the case of storm-related power outages could also be affected,” The Washington Post reports.

All the more reason to know your zone and leave early if necessary, follow evacuation orders promptly (and arrange alternative travel if you’re concerned about your car), and be prepared for flooding.

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Spotlight

Washington Wants Data Centers to Bring Their Own Clean Energy

The state is poised to join a chorus of states with BYO energy policies.

Washington State and a data center.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

With the backlash to data center development growing around the country, some states are launching a preemptive strike to shield residents from higher energy costs and environmental impacts.

A bill wending through the Washington State legislature would require data centers to pick up the tab for all of the costs associated with connecting them to the grid. It echoes laws passed in Oregon and Minnesota last year, and others currently under consideration in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Delaware.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Hotspots

Michigan’s Data Center Bans Are Getting Longer

Plus more of the week’s top fights in renewable energy.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Kent County, Michigan — Yet another Michigan municipality has banned data centers — for the second time in just a few months.

  • Solon Township, a rural community north of Grand Rapids, passed a six-month moratorium on Monday after residents learned that a consulting agency that works with data center developers was scouting sites in the area. The decision extended a previous 90-day ban.
  • Solon is at least the tenth township in Michigan to enact a moratorium on data center development in the past three months. The state has seen a surge in development since Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed a law exempting data centers from sales and use taxes last April, and a number of projects — such as the 1,400-megawatt, $7 billion behemoth planned by Oracle and OpenAI in Washtenaw County — have become local political flashpoints.
  • Some communities have passed moratoria on data center development even without receiving any interest from developers. In Romeo, for instance, residents urged the village’s board of trustees to pass a moratorium after a project was proposed for neighboring Washington Township. The board assented and passed a one-year moratorium in late January.

2. Pima County, Arizona — Opposition groups submitted twice the required number of signatures in a petition to put a rezoning proposal for a $3.6 billion data center project on the ballot in November.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Q&A

Could Blocking Data Centers Raise Electricity Prices?

A conversation with Advanced Energy United’s Trish Demeter about a new report with Synapse Energy Economics.

Trish Demeter.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Trish Demeter, a senior managing director at Advanced Energy United, a national trade group representing energy and transportation businesses. I spoke with Demeter about the group’s new report, produced by Synapse Energy Economics, which found that failing to address local moratoria and restrictive siting ordinances in Indiana could hinder efforts to reduce electricity prices in the state. Given Indiana is one of the fastest growing hubs for data center development, I wanted to talk about what policymakers could do to address this problem — and what it could mean for the rest of the country. Our conversation was edited for length and clarity.

Can you walk readers through what you found in your report on energy development in Indiana?

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow