Get Ready for an ‘Extremely Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season

Current conditions: Nearly 4,000 schools in the Philippines have suspended in-person classes due to extreme heat • Large parts of the central and southern High Plains are under red flag fire warnings • It will be 57 degrees Fahrenheit and rainy in Baltimore today for President Biden’s visit to the site of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Atlantic hurricane season expected to be ‘extremely active’

The coastal United States and Caribbean should prepare for an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season. That’s the message from Colorado State University researchers, who yesterday released their preseason extended range forecast for the region. They estimate there will be more named hurricanes than usual (11 compared with the 30-year average of 7.2) and that five of them could be major storms. There’s an above-normal chance (62% compared with 43% historical averages) that at least one of these major hurricanes will make landfall somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline. While these are just predictions, the team says they are more confident than in past years in their forecast “given how hurricane-favorable the large-scale conditions appear to be.”

NOAA forecast for El Niño and La Niña. Black arrow indicates the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.CSU

They’re referring to two factors: Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and an expected transition out of El Niño and into La Niña. Warmer waters provide more energy for storms, and La Niña “typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity through decreases in vertical wind shear.” Ocean temperatures last year were the hottest ever recorded, driven by both El Niño and climate change from burning fossil fuels. “A key area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already abnormally warm,” explainedThe New York Times, “much warmer than an ideal swimming pool temperature of about 80 degrees and on the cusp of feeling more like warm bathtub water.” The oceans have absorbed 90% of the excessive heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations.

2. Ford delays some EVs, refocuses on hybrids

Ford is delaying production of its next-generation electric pickup and its long-awaited three-row electric SUV, with the vehicles now set to be available in 2026 and 2027, respectively. In the near-term, the company plans to follow market trends by focusing on hybrids. Sales of hybrids climbed last quarter by 45% in the U.S., compared with 2.7% growth in sales for EVs. And more than half of the Ford Maverick compact pickup trucks sold last quarter had conventional hybrid engines, “a sign of how rapidly hybrids and plug-in hybrids are ascending in the American car market,” says Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer. Ford plans to offer hybrid versions of its entire gas-powered lineup in North America by 2030. “We are committed to scaling a profitable EV business, using capital wisely and bringing to market the right gas, hybrid and fully electric vehicles at the right time,” said Ford president and CEO Jim Farley.

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3. Alsym raises $78 million for lithium-free batteries

A Boston-based battery startup called Alsym Energy has raised $78 million in a new funding round. The company has created a rechargeable battery that’s lithium- and cobalt-free, which means it’s less flammable and not as vulnerable to supply shortages. As VentureBeatexplained: “When it comes to batteries, we’ve put all our eggs in one basket. Non-lithium batteries help diversify the global battery mix so that lithium-ion supply chain disruptions or pricing volatility don’t derail the clean energy transition.” The company will use the new funds to hire more people and build production lines to provide samples to customers, according toTechCrunch.

4. Germany debates autobahn speed limits for CO2 cuts

Germany’s transport minister dismissed reports that the country’s autobahn may introduce speed limits in order to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Germany is unique among industrialized countries in that many of its highways have no nationwide speed limits. Studies suggest lowering top speeds to 75mph could cut 6.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year. Germany aims to become carbon neutral by 2045, but the country’s transport sector has been the slowest to cut emissions, reported Reuters. Support for speed limits has been growing, even though Transport Minister Volker Wissing said “people don’t want that,” according toPolitico.

5. Disneyland’s Autopia ride will get rid of gas-powered cars

Disneyland’s Autopia ride is ditching its gas-powered cars and going electric as part of its plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2030. The attraction, which lets visitors drive around a miniature motorway in small cars, is located at Disneyland’s Tomorrowland in Anaheim, California. When Tomorrowland opened in 1955, Walt Disney called it “a step into the future, with predictions of constructive things to come.” But Autopia’s existing cars are loud and produce noxious fumes, prompting complaints from visitors and climate activists alike. This week Disney announced it will swap them out for electric versions “in the next few years,” though it didn’t say whether the new cars would be fully electric or hybrid. Bob Gurr, who helped Walt design Tomorrowland in the ‘50s, told the Los Angeles Times it’s time to “get rid of those God-awful gasoline fumes.”

YouTube/Disneyland Resort

THE KICKER

“The transition to all-electric buildings is so well underway that legal obstacles thrown up by the fossil fuel industry and its allies won’t be enough to stop it.” –The LA Times editorial board says Berkeley’s decision to abandon its natural gas ban is just a “bump in the road.”