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Having a true green hydrogen industry depends on that not happening.
In late December, the Treasury Department proposed draft regulations to implement the Inflation Reduction Act’s generous hydrogen production tax credit. Under Section 45V of the tax code, eligible projects must show that their life cycle greenhouse gas emissions fall below exacting benchmarks. Treasury’s final rules will determine how hydrogen projects are allowed to calculate their emissions and direct the flow of tens of billions of tax dollars — or more.
Most of the discussion that followed focused on the draft rule’s proposed guardrails for green hydrogen, which is produced from water using clean electricity. The climate policy community in particular largely approved of Treasury’s approach, in part because it lays the groundwork for hourly emissions accounting in the electricity sector — essentially, making sure that clean energy is being made and used in real time, a foundational shift needed for deep decarbonization.
But when it comes to producing hydrogen from methane — which is how nearly all hydrogen is made today — Treasury’s draft was incomplete. In place of a concrete proposal, the draft regulations raised detailed technical questions about what should be allowed in the final rule. Among these was the suggestion that hydrogen production from fossil fuels might qualify for tax credits by using methane offsets. This, quite simply, would undermine the tax credit’s entire purpose.
If the final regulations authorize methane offsets, then the 45V tax credit could end up subsidizing fossil fuel projects, stifling the nascent green hydrogen industry and locking in emissions-intensive infrastructure for decades to come. Just as concerning, authorizing offsets for the hydrogen production tax credit would also pave the way for similar treatment in the upcoming implementation of technology-neutral clean energy production ( Section 45Y) and investment tax credits (Section 48E).
To understand how offsets could affect the strategic outlook for the hydrogen industry, we looked at how the Treasury Department calculates the life cycle emissions of hydrogen production from natural gas, which is essentially just methane. Treasury’s draft regulations propose to use a bespoke life cycle analysis model to determine whether hydrogen projects qualify for the tax credit, and if so, what level of support they will receive.
This model has several important features: It accounts for CO2 emitted in the process of producing hydrogen from methane, which is straightforward, as well as methane emissions from upstream gas production, processing, and pipeline transportation, which is not. (Unfortunately, it doesn’t include impacts from hydrogen, which itself is an indirect greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming.)
The model’s treatment of methane emissions is particularly important. Although the academic literature suggests a national average above 2% and finds impacts above 9% in some cases, the model assumes that gas supply chains emit only 0.9% of the methane they deliver. Differences in methane emissions matter a lot, even when they look small. That’s because methane traps about 30 times as much heat as CO2 over a 100-year period, so its calculated CO2-equivalence is that much larger.
As a result, Treasury’s proposed approach undercounts the true climate impacts of hydrogen production, particularly hydrogen made from methane. Even so, fossil hydrogen production faces a narrow path to qualifying for the tax credit. For example, a fossil hydrogen project would have to capture more than 70% of its CO2 emissions and buy enough clean electricity to power all its operations — either directly as energy or indirectly as energy credits — even to qualify for the lower tiers of the tax credit. And even though projects’ actual methane emissions are likely to be undercounted, the model’s assumptions are enough to disqualify fossil projects from the highest tax credit tier, which is substantially more lucrative than any of the others.
Because of the difficulty of achieving high CO2 capture rates, some analysts have argued that fossil hydrogen projects will instead wind up applying for tax credits under Section 45Q of the IRA, which provides incentives for sequestering CO2 underground without the hydrogen tax credit’s exacting emissions standards.
But a fossil hydrogen project can claim totally different outcomes if it’s allowed to buy environmental certificates that claim to avoid methane emissions in the first place, a.k.a. methane offsets. The logic goes like this: If someone else was going to emit methane to the atmosphere, but agrees instead to capture and inject it into a gas pipeline network, then a hydrogen producer can buy a certificate from that other methane producer representing that same captured gas and potentially treat their own fossil gas as negative emissions.
For example, consider a large dairy that sends cow manure to uncovered manure lagoons, which produce significant methane emissions. Suppose the dairy installs a methane capture system and sells credits to a hydrogen producer, which then claims to have avoided the dairy’s methane emissions — even if these emissions could be avoided in other ways, like alternative manure management or flaring. Because methane is considered almost 30 times more impactful than CO2 over a 100-year period, the CO2-equivalence of avoiding methane emissions is larger than the project’s direct CO2 emissions, and therefore the resulting hydrogen production process gets a negative carbon intensity score.
If your head is spinning at this point, welcome to the world of offsets. Outcomes depend on counterfactual scenarios that can’t be measured or observed, burning fossil fuels can supposedly reduce pollution, and even the verb tenses are hard to parse.
Vertigo aside, the practical implications of methane offsets for the hydrogen production tax credit are enormous. Without methane offsets, fossil hydrogen projects couldn’t benefit much from the hydrogen tax credit; even with strict carbon capture and storage pollution controls, they can't meet the life cycle requirements for the top tier and would likely prefer to claim a smaller carbon storage tax credit instead. But if projects can use methane offsets, they can easily reduce their calculated emissions to qualify for the top tier of the hydrogen production tax credit.
This would also mean these fossil projects could undercut truly clean hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen projects that comply with the draft guardrails will have to invest in novel electrolyzer technologies and new clean power sources. The top tier of the tax credit provides enough money to make clean hydrogen projects competitive, but methane offsets are a lot less expensive than electrolyzers. If fossil producers can qualify with cheap offsets, they can pocket the difference and outcompete clean producers who have to invest in costly infrastructure.
We set out to estimate the amount of methane offsetting needed to qualify fossil projects for the top production tax credit tier. You can review our calculations here; for the carbon intensity of putatively negative emissions feedstocks, we used a conservative estimate that is about half the level of what other researchers use.
Remarkably, a fossil hydrogen project without carbon capture could qualify for the top production tax credit by offsetting just 25% of its fuel use. And a fossil hydrogen project that abates 90% of its CO2 emissions could earn the top tier of the tax credit if it bought offsets for just 4% of its fuel use.
So far a lot of the discussion about negative carbon intensity scores has focused on methane captured from livestock manure, but Treasury’s draft regulations also make reference to the possibility of capturing “fugitive emissions,” which could include methane emitted from the oil and gas sector or even from coal mines. If methane offsets are made eligible across a wide range of fugitive emissions, the hydrogen tax credit — which was designed as a generous incentive to promote innovation in new technologies — could end up subsidizing incumbent emitters.
Treasury’s hydrogen regulations will also set an important precedent for how offsets are treated in other government policies. The last set of tax credits in the IRA, a pair of technology-neutral investment and production tax credits for clean electricity generation, are under development this year. It’s great news that soon the U.S. federal government will support a full range of clean technologies, not just solar and wind — but not if those policies encourage higher-emitting activities that claim to be clean through the use of offsets. There are a few existing markets for methane offsets already, and certain segments of the economy — particularly the dairy industry — are hungry for more.
At the end of the day, the Biden administration faces a similar set of issues when it comes to producing hydrogen from methane that it did with clean hydrogen produced from electricity and water. If the tax credits encourage green hydrogen projects in places where it is difficult to supply cheap and clean electricity, then those projects risk becoming stranded assets when the tax credits expire. Similarly, if the tax credits encourage hydrogen production from chemical feedstocks and methane offsets, they will prop up fossil fuel infrastructure that could keep operating long after the requirement to buy offsets expires.
For all the complexity, though, one thing is clear: We won’t get a true green hydrogen industry if the Treasury Department decides to subsidize methane offsets — which, when you put it like that, doesn’t make much sense in the first place.
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Investing in red states doesn’t make defying Trump any safer.
In the end, it was what the letters didn’t say.
For months — since well before the 2024 election — when asked about the future health and safety of the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, advocates and industry folks would point to the 20 or so House Republicans (sometimes more, sometimes fewer) who would sign on to public statements urging their colleagues to preserve at least some of the law. Better not to pull out the rug from business investment, they argued. Especially not investment in their districts.
These letters were “reassuring to a lot of folks in clean energy and climate communities,” Chris Moyer, the founder of Echo Communications and a former staffer for longtime Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, told me.
“I never felt reassured,” Moyer added.
Plenty of people did, though. The home solar company Sunrun, for instance, told investors in a presentation earlier this monththat a “growing number of Republicans in Congress — including 39 overall House members and four Senators — publicly support maintaining energy tax credits through various letters over the past few months.” The company added that “we expect a range of draft proposals to be issued, possibly including draconian scenarios, but we expect any extreme proposals will be moderated as they progress.”
Instead, the draft language got progressively worse for the residential solar industry, with the version that passed the House Thursday morning knocking billions of dollars off the sector, as tax credits were further squeezed to help make room for other priorities that truly posed an existential threat to the bill’s passage.
What Sunrun and others appear to have failed to notice — or at least publicly acknowledge — is that while these representatives wanted to see tax credits preserved, they never specified what they would do if their wishes were disregarded. Unlike the handful of Republicans who threatened to tank the bill over expanding the deduction for state and local taxes (each of whom signed one of the tax credit letters, at some point), or the Freedom Caucus, who tend to vote no on any major fiscal bill that doesn’t contain sizable spending cuts (so, until now, every budget bill), the tax credit Republicans never threatened to kill the bill entirely.
Ultimately, the only Republicans to outright oppose the bill did so because it didn’t cut the deficit enough. All of the House Republicans who signed letters or statements in support of clean energy tax credits voted yes on the legislation, with a single exception: New York’s Andrew Garbarino, who reportedly slept through the roll call. (He later said he would have voted for it had he been awake.)
“The coalition of interests effectively persuaded Republican members that tax credits were driving investment in their districts and states,” Pavan Venkatakrishnan, an infrastructure fellow at the Institute for Progress, told me in a text message. “Where advocates fell short was in convincing them that preserving energy tax credits — especially for mature technologies Republicans often view skeptically — should take precedence over preventing Medicaid cuts or addressing parochial concerns like SALT.”
The Inflation Reduction Act itself was, after all, advanced on a party-line basis, as was Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan. Combined, those two bills received a single Democratic no vote and no Republican yes votes.
In the end, Moyer said, Republican House members in the current Congress were under immense political pressure to support what is likely to be the sole major piece of legislation advanced this year by President Trump — one that contained a number of provisions, especially on SALT, that they agreed with.
“There are major consequences for individual house members who vote against the president’s agenda,” Moyer said. “They made a calculation. They knew they were going to take heat either way. They would rather take heat from clean energy folks and people affected by the projects.”
It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
White House officials and outside analysts frequently touted job creation linked to IRA investments in Republican House districts and states as a tangible benefit of the law that would make it politically impossible to overturn, even as Congress and the White House turned over.
“President’s Biden’s policies are leading to more than 330,000 new clean energy jobs already created, more than half of which are in Republican-held districts,” White House communications director Ben LaBolt told reporters last year, previewing a speech President Biden would give on climate change.
Even after Biden had been defeated, White House climate advisor Ali Zaidi told Bloomberg that “we have grown the political consensus around the Inflation Reduction Act through its execution,” citing one of the House Republican letters in support of the clean energy tax credits.
One former Biden White House climate official told me that having projects in Republican districts was thought by the IRA’s crafters to make the bill more politically sustainable — but only so much.
“A [freaking] battery factory is not going to save democracy,” the official told me, referencing more ambitious claims that the tax credits could lead to more Democratic electoral victories. (The official asked to remain anonymous in order not to jeopardize their current professional prospects.) Instead, “it was supposed to make it slightly harder for Republicans to overturn the subsidies.”
Congresspeople worried about jobs weren’t supposed to be the only things that would preserve the bill, either, the official added. Clean energy and energy-dependent sectors, they thought, should be able to effectively advocate for themselves.
To the extent that business interests were able to win a hearing with House Republicans, they were older, more traditionally conservative industries such as nuclear, manufacturing, agriculture, and oil and gas.The biofuels industry (i.e. liquid Big Agriculture) won an extension of its tax credit, 45Z. The oil and gas industry’s favored measure, the 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, was minimally fettered. Nuclear power was the one sector whose treatment notably improved between the initial draft from the House’s tax-writing committee and the version voted on Thursday. Advanced nuclear facilities can still claim tax credits if they start construction by 2029, while other clean energy projects have to start construction within 60 days of the bill’s passage and be in service by the end of 2028.
“I think these outcomes are unsurprising. In places where folks consistently engaged, things were protected,” a Republican lobbyist told me, referring to manufacturing, biofuels, and nuclear power, requesting anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. “But assuming a project in a district would guarantee a no vote on a large package was always a mistake.”
“The relative success of nuclear is a testament to the importance of having strong champions — predictable but notable show of political might,” a second Republican lobbyist told me, who was also not allowed to speak publicly about the bill.
But all hope isn’t lost yet. The Senate still has to pass something that the House will agree with. Some senators had made noises about how nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal were treated in the initial language.
“Budget reconciliation is, first and foremost, a fiscal exercise,” Venkatakrishnan told me. “Energy tax credits offer a path of least resistance for hitting lawmakers’ fiscal targets. As the Senate takes up this bill, the case must be made that the marginal $100 billion to $200 billion in cuts seriously jeopardizes grid reliability and energy innovation.” Whether that will be enough to generate meaningful opposition in the Senate, however, is the $600 billion question.
A loophole created by the House Ways and Means text disappeared in the final bill.
Early this morning, the House of Representatives launched a full-frontal assault on the residential solar business model. The new language in the budget reconciliation bill to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed Thursday included even tighter restrictions on the tech-neutral investment tax credits claimed by businesses like Sunrun when they lease solar systems to residential buyers.
While the earlier language from the Ways and Means committee eliminated the 25D tax credit for those who purchased home solar systems after the end of this year (it was originally supposed to run through 2034), the new language says that no credit “shall be allowed under this section for any investment during the taxable year” (emphasis mine) if the entity claiming the tax credit “rents or leases such property to a third party during such taxable year” and “the lessee would qualify for a credit under section 25D with respect to such property if the lessee owned such property.”
This is how you kill a business model in legislative text.
“Expect shares of solar companies to take a significant step back,” Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning, calling the exclusion “scathing.” Investors are “losing the now false sense of security that we had 'seen the worst' of it with the initial House draft.”
Joseph Osha, an analyst for Guggenheim, agrees. “Considering the fact that ~70% of the residential solar industry is now supported by third-party (e.g. lease or PPA) financing arrangements, the new language is disastrous for the residential solar industry,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We believe the near-term implications are very negative for Sunrun, Enphase, and SolarEdge.”
Shares of Sunrun are down 37.5% in mid-day trading, wiping off almost $1 billion worth of value for its shareholders. The company did not respond to a request for comment. Shares of fellow residential solar inverter and systems Enphase are down 20%, while residential solar technology company SolarEdge’s shares are down 24.5%.
“Families will lose the freedom to control their energy costs,” Abigail Ross Hopper, chief executive of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said in a statement, in reference to the last-minute alteration to the investment tax credit.
When the House Ways and Means Committee released the initial language getting rid of 25D by the end of this year but keeping a limited version of the investment tax credit, analysts noted that Sunrun was an unexpected winner from the bill. It typically markets its solar products as leases or power purchase agreements, not outright sales of the system.
The reversal, Dumoulin-Smith wrote, “comes as a surprise especially considering how favorable the initial markup was” to the Sunrun business model.
“Our core solar service offerings are provided through our lease and power purchase agreements,” the company said in its 2024 annual report. “While customers have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from us, most of our customers choose to buy solar as a service from us through our Customer Agreements without the significant upfront investment of purchasing a solar energy system.”
The new bill, Dumoulin-Smith writes is “‘leveling the playing field’ by targeting all future residential solar originations, whether leased or owned.” The bill is “negative to Sunrun with intentional targeting of the sector.
Last year, Sunrun generated over $700 million from transferring investment tax credits from its solar and storage projects. The company said that it had $117 million of “incentives revenue” in 2024, which includes the tax credits, out of around $1.4 billion in total revenue.
But the tax credits play a far larger role in the business than just how they’re recognized on the company’s earnings statements. The company raises investment funds to help finance the projects, where investors get payments from customers as well as monetized tax credits. Fund investors “can receive attractive after-tax returns from our investment funds due to their ability to utilize Commercial ITCs,” the company said in its report. Conversely, the financing “enables us to offer attractive pricing to our customers for the energy generated by the solar energy system on their homes.”
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perocco wrote to clients that “this is a noteworthy change for the residential solar industry, and Sunrun in particular, which dominates the residential solar [third-party owned] market and has recognized ITC credits under 48E.”
Current conditions: A late-season nor’easter could bring minor flooding to the Boston area• It’s clear and sunny today in Erbil, Iraq, where the country’s first entirely off-grid, solar-powered village is now operating • Thursday will finally bring a break from severe storms in the U.S., which has seen 280 tornadoes more than the historical average this year.
1. House GOP passes reconciliation bill after late-night tweaks to clean energy tax credits
The House passed the sweeping “big, beautiful” tax bill early Thursday morning in a 215-214 vote, mostly along party lines. Republican Representatives Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio voted no, while House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris of Maryland voted “present;” two additional Republicans didn’t vote.
The bill will effectively kill the Inflation Reduction Act, as my colleague Emily Pontecorvo has written — although the Wednesday night manager’s amendment included some tweaks to how, exactly, as well as a few concessions to moderates. Updates include:
The bill now heads to the Senate — where more negotiations will almost certainly follow — with Republicans aiming to have it on President Trump’s desk by July 4.
2. FEMA cancels 4-year strategic plan, axing focus on ‘climate resilience’
The combative new acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, David Richardson, rescinded the organization’s four-year strategic plan on Wednesday, per Wired. Though the document, which was set to expire at the end of 2026, does not address specific procedures for given disasters, it does lay out goals and objectives for the agency, including “lead whole of community in climate resilience” and “install equality as a foundation of emergency management.” In axing the strategic plan, Richardson told staff that the document “contains goals and objectives that bear no connection to FEMA accomplishing its mission.”
A FEMA employee who spoke with Wired stressed that while rescinding the plan does not have immediate operational impacts, it can still have “big downstream effects.” Another characterized the move by the administration as symbolic: “There are very real changes that have been made that touch on [equity and climate change] that are more important than the document itself.”
3. Energy Department redirects Puerto Rican rooftop solar investment to upkeep of fossil fuel plants
The U.S. federal government is redirecting a $365 million investment in rooftop solar power in Puerto Rico to instead maintain the island’s fossil fuel-powered grid, the Department of Energy announced Wednesday. The award, which dates to the Biden administration, was intended to provide stable power to Puerto Ricans, who have become accustomed to blackouts due to damaged and outdated infrastructure. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority declared bankruptcy in 2017, and a barrage of major hurricanes — most notably 2017’s Hurricane Maria — have destabilized the island’s grid, Reuters reports.
In Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s statement, he said the funds will go toward “dispatching baseload generation units, supporting vegetation control to protect transmission lines, and upgrading aging infrastructure.” But Javier Rúa Jovet, a public policy director for Puerto Rico’s Solar and Energy Storage Association, added to The Associated Press that “There is nothing faster and better than solar batteries.”
4. EDF, Shell, and others to collaborate on hydrogen emission tracker
The Environmental Defense Fund announced Wednesday that it is launching an international research initiative to track hydrogen emissions from North American and European facilities, in partnership with Shell, TotalEnergies, Air Products, and Air Liquide, as well as other academic and technology partners. Hydrogen is an indirect greenhouse gas that, through chemical reactions, can affect the lifetime and abundances of planet-warming gases like methane and ozone. Despite being a “leak-prone gas,” hydrogen emissions have been poorly studied.
“As hydrogen becomes an increasingly important part of the energy system, developing a robust, data-driven understanding of its emissions is essential to supporting informed decisions and guiding future investments in the sector,” Steven Hamburg, the chief scientist and senior vice president of EDF, said in a statement. Notably, EDF took a similar approach to tracking methane over a decade ago and ultimately exposed that emissions were “a far greater threat” than official government estimates suggested.
5. The best-selling SUV in America will now be available only as a hybrid
Toyota
The bestselling SUV in America, the Toyota RAV4, will be available only as a hybrid beginning with the 2026 model, Car and Driver reports. The car will be available both as a conventional hybrid and as a plug-in that works with CCS-compatible DC fast chargers, meaning “owners can quickly fill up its battery during long road trips” to minimize their fossil fuel mileage, The Verge adds. The RAV4 will also beat the Prius for electric range, hitting up to 50 miles before its gas engine kicks in.
Toyota’s move might not come as a complete surprise given that the automaker already introduced a hybrid-only lineup for its Camry. But given the popularity of the RAV4, Car and Driver notes that “if you ever wondered whether or not hybrids have entered the mainstream yet, perhaps this could be a tipping point.”
Nathan Hurner/USFWS
The Fish Lake Valley tui chub, a small minnow threatened by farming and mining activity, could become the first species to be listed as endangered under the second Trump administration.