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Suburban streets, exploding pipes, and those Santa Ana winds, for starters.

A fire needs three things to burn: heat, fuel, and oxygen. The first is important: At some point this week, for a reason we have yet to discover and may never will, a piece of flammable material in Los Angeles County got hot enough to ignite. The last is essential: The resulting fires, which have now burned nearly 29,000 acres, are fanned by exceptionally powerful and dry Santa Ana winds.
But in the critical days ahead, it is that central ingredient that will preoccupy fire managers, emergency responders, and the public, who are watching their homes — wood-framed containers full of memories, primary documents, material wealth, sentimental heirlooms — transformed into raw fuel. “Grass is one fuel model; timber is another fuel model; brushes are another — there are dozens of fuel models,” Bobbie Scopa, a veteran firefighter and author of the memoir Both Sides of the Fire Line, told me. “But when a fire goes from the wildland into the urban interface, you’re now burning houses.”
This jump from chaparral shrubland into neighborhoods has frustrated firefighters’ efforts to gain an upper hand over the L.A. County fires. In the remote wilderness, firefighters can cut fire lines with axes, pulaskis, and shovels to contain the blaze. (A fire’s “containment” describes how much firefighters have encircled; 25% containment means a quarter of the fire perimeter is prevented from moving forward by manmade or natural fire breaks.)
Once a fire moves into an urban community and starts spreading house to house, however, as has already happened in Santa Monica, Pasadena, and other suburbs of Los Angeles, those strategies go out the window. A fire break starves a fire by introducing a gap in its fuel; it can be a cleared strip of vegetation, a river, or even a freeway. But you can’t just hack a fire break through a neighborhood. “Now you’re having to use big fire engines and spray lots of water,” Scopa said, compared to the wildlands where “we do a lot of firefighting without water.”
Water has already proven to be a significant issue in Los Angeles, where many hydrants near Palisades, the biggest of the five fires, had already gone dry by 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. “We’re fighting a wildfire with urban water systems, and that is really challenging,” Los Angeles Department of Water and Power CEO Janisse Quiñones explained in a news conference later that same day.
LADWP said it had filled its 114 water storage tanks before the fires started, but the city’s water supply was never intended to stop a 17,000-acre fire. The hydrants are “meant to put out a two-house fire, a one-house fire, or something like that,” Faith Kearns, a water and wildfire researcher at Arizona State University, told me. Additionally, homeowners sometimes leave their sprinklers on in the hopes that it will help protect their house, or try to fight fires with their own hoses. At a certain point, the system — just like the city personnel — becomes overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the unfolding disaster.
Making matters worse is the wind, which restricted some of the aerial support firefighters typically employ. As gusts slowed on Thursday, retardant and water drops were able to resume, helping firefighters in their efforts. (The Eaton Fire, while still technically 0% contained because there are no established fire lines, has “significantly stopped” growing, The New York Times reports). Still, firefighters don’t typically “paint” neighborhoods; the drops, which don’t put out fires entirely so much as suppress them enough that firefighters can fight them at close range, are a liability. Kearns, however, told me that “the winds were so high, they weren’t able to do the water drops that they normally do and that are an enormous part of all fire operations,” and that “certainly compounded the problems of the fire hydrants running dry.”
Firefighters’ priority isn’t saving structures, though. “Firefighters save lives first before they have to deal with fire,” Alexander Maranghides, a fire protection engineer at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the author of an ongoing case study of the 2018 Camp fire in Paradise, California, told me. That can be an enormous and time-consuming task in a dense area like suburban Los Angeles, and counterintuitively lead to more areas burning down. Speaking specifically from his conclusions about the Camp fire, which was similarly a wildland-urban interface, or WUI fire, Maranghides added, “It is very, very challenging because as things deteriorate — you’re talking about downed power lines, smoke obstructing visibility, and you end up with burn-overs,” when a fire moves so quickly that it overtakes people or fire crews. “And now you have to go and rescue those civilians who are caught in those burn-overs.” Sometimes, that requires firefighters to do triage — and let blocks burn to save lives.
Perhaps most ominously, the problems don’t end once the fire is out. When a house burns down, it is often the case that its water pipes burst. (This also adds to the water shortage woes during the event.) But when firefighters are simultaneously pumping water out of other parts of the system, air can be sucked down into those open water pipes. And not just any air. “We’re not talking about forest smoke, which is bad; we’re talking about WUI smoke, which is bad plus,” Maranghides said, again referring to his research in Paradise. “It’s not just wood burning; it’s wood, plastics, heavy metals, computers, cars, batteries, everything. You don’t want to be breathing it, and you don’t want it going into your water system.”
Water infrastructure can be damaged in other ways, as well. Because fires are burning “so much hotter now,” Kearns told me, contamination can occur due to melting PVC piping, which releases benzene, a carcinogen. Watersheds and reservoirs are also in danger of extended contamination, particularly once rains finally do come and wash soot, silt, debris, and potentially toxic flame retardant into nearby streams.
But that’s a problem for the future. In the meantime, Los Angeles — and lots of it — continues to burn.
“I don’t care how many resources you have; when the fires are burning like they do when we have Santa Anas, there’s so little you can do,” Scopa said. “All you can do is try to protect the people and get the people out, and try to keep your firefighters safe.”
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On MARVEL’s market, a climate retraction, and Eavor’s geothermal milestone
Current conditions: A nor’easter dumping as much as a foot of snow on parts of the Upper Midwest is set to dust New York City on its way to deliver heavier snow to northern New England • Temperatures nearly topped 90 degrees Fahrenheit in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands, as America’s third-most populous overseas territory endures a record December heatwave • South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania are all under severe fire warnings.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of smashing solar installation records, it was the age of phasing out the federal tax credits that so successfully spurred the boom in the first place. The United States added 2 gigawatts of utility-scale solar in September, bringing the total installed this year to 21 gigawatts. That, as Utility Dive noted of newly released Federal Energy Regulatory Commission data, is slightly above the 20 gigawatts installed in the same period last year. Of the 28 gigawatts of new generation the U.S. installed so far in 2025, 75% was solar, followed by wind at 13% and gas at 11%. Still, natural gas makes up the largest share of the U.S. grid’s electricity capacity, with 42% compared to the combined 31% that wind, solar, and hydro comprise. And the picture isn’t getting better. As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote yesterday, the solar industry is “begging Congress for help with Trump.”

For the past four years, the Department of Energy has been developing its very own microreactor. The Microreactor Application Research Validation and Evaluation, or MARVEL, is a 10-kilowatt, liquid-metal cooled microreactor currently under construction at the Idaho National Laboratory. On Thursday, the lab unveiled the “first potential end users for MARVEL,” including Amazon Web Services, energy equipment giant GE Vernova, oil giant ConocoPhillips, and the data center operator DCX. “With access to MARVEL, companies can explore how microreactors will potentially help us win the global AI race, solve water challenges, and so much more,” John Jackson, national technical director for the microreactor program at the Energy Department’s Office of Nuclear Energy, told Power magazine. “The MARVEL testbed exemplifies how nuclear energy can open the door to a stronger, safer and more prosperous future for our country.”
It’s part of the strides the Trump administration has taken on nuclear power recently. Earlier this week, as I wrote here, the Energy Department awarded $400 million each to two small modular reactor projects aiming to build the first lower-powered versions of third-generation units based on the light water reactors already in operation today. Last month, as I covered in this newsletter, the agency put up a $1 billion loan to fund the restart of the working reactor at the Pennsylvania plant once known as Three Mile Island. There is, after all, what Heatmap’s Katie Brigham called a very “real” nuclear dealmaking boom afoot.
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The prestigious journal Nature has retracted a study published last year that concluded that climate change would cause a catastrophic drop in economic output of 62% by the end of the century, a jarring finding taken so seriously that central banks worked the warning into risk-assessment models. But a team of economists noticed an error in data from Uzbekistan. Excluding the Central Asian republic from the calculation pegged the predicted plunge in economic activity at 23%. That doesn’t mean climate change isn’t an economic threat, as the papers detractors noted to The New York Times. “Most people for the last decade have thought that a 20% reduction in 2100 was an insanely large number,” said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of global environmental policy at Stanford University who in August co-wrote the critique of the original study. “So the fact that this paper is coming out saying 60% is off the chart.”
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The advocacy group Rewiring America is out with an interesting new thought experiment on the potential benefits of making the country’s households more energy efficient as a means of clearing space on the grid for data centers. Upgrading U.S. houses, condos, and apartments with efficient appliances, solar panels, and batteries could create enough capacity to meet the rising electricity demand of large data centers over the next five years. Doing so would create more than 600,000 jobs for carpenters, electricians, and others involved in the supply chain. Virtual power plants — software systems that allow utilities to pay homeowners for the right to tap into rooftop solar panels, batteries, plugged-in electric vehicles, and smart thermostats to balance the grid — are, advocates say, emerging as a potential source of large-scale power that can be harnessed in the next few years, a timescale relevant to many data center projects that are expected to complete construction before new power plants can come online.
Back in October, I told you the next-generation geothermal startup Eavor was on the brink of completing its first power plant south of Munich, Germany. Now the Calgary-based company has entered into commercial operation. Eavor officially delivered its first electrons to the German grid from its facility in Geretsried. Eavor hailed the milestone as proof not just of its potential to operate a generating plant but a victory for its in-house drilling technology designed to carve a closed-loop well deep underground. “With Geretsried now on-stream, we’re more confident than ever that our closed-loop geothermal system, designed for adaptability and suited to the world’s diverse regions, will secure its place as the leading solution for commercial geothermal application,” CEO Mark Fitzgerald said in a statement. It’s not the only geothermal startup making waves. As I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter, Zanskar, the Salt Lake City-based company using artificial intelligence to find new conventional geothermal resources, just claimed one of the biggest discoveries in the U.S. in more than 30 years.
You may also recall another newsletter from October where I told you that all Trump’s nominees to serve on the board of the Tennessee Valley Authority vowed to stand against privatizing the federally-owned utility, easing fears that the president’s recent boardroom meddling wasn’t an attempt at selling off the power provider on which more than 10 million Americans depend for cheap electricity. If you agree with analyses showing public ownership as the best way to keep prices down, then I have good news for you. When businessman and Republican megadonor Lee Beaman came before the Senate for a confirmation Wednesday, the nominee for the board said his preference for private enterprise came with an exception for the TVA. “Although I generally believe that the private sector is more efficient than government, in the case of TVA, I think TVA is more uniquely, appropriately operated as a government entity,” Beaman told the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, per E&E News.
A letter from the Solar Energy Industries Association describes the administration’s “nearly complete moratorium on permitting.”
A major solar energy trade group now says the Trump administration is refusing to do even routine work to permit solar projects on private lands — and that the situation has become so dire for the industry, lawmakers discussing permitting reform in Congress should intervene.
The Solar Energy Industries Association on Thursday published a letter it sent to top congressional leaders of both parties asserting that a July memo from Interior Secretary Doug Burgum mandating “elevated” review for renewables project decisions instead resulted in “a nearly complete moratorium on permitting for any project in which the Department of Interior may play a role, on both federal and private land, no matter how minor.” The letter was signed by more than 140 solar companies, including large players EDF Power Solutions, RES, and VDE Americas.
The letter reinforces a theme underlying much of Heatmap’s coverage since the memo’s release — that the bureaucratic freeze against solar decision-making has stretched far beyond final permits to processes once considered ancillary. It also confirms that the enhanced review has jammed up offices outside Burgum’s purview, such as the Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees wetlands, water crossings, and tree removals, and requires Interior to sign off on actions through the interagency consultation process.
SEIA’s letter asserts that the impacts of Burgum’s memo stretch even to projects on private lands seeking Interior’s assistance to determine whether federally protected species are even present — meaning that regardless of whether endangered animals or flowers are there, companies are now taking on an outsized legal risk by moving forward with any kind of development.
After listing out these impacts in its letter, SEIA asked Congress to pressure Interior into revoking the July memo in its entirety. The trade group added there may be things Interior could do besides revoking the memo that would amount to “reasonable steps” in the “short-term to prevent unnecessary delays in energy development that is currently poised to help meet the growing energy demands of AI and other industries.” SEIA did not elaborate on what those actions would look like in its letter.
“Businesses need certainty in order to continue making investments in the United States to build out much-needed energy projects,” SEIA’s letter reads. “Certainty must include a review process that does not discriminate by energy source.” It concludes: “We urge Congress to keep fairness and certainty at the center of permitting negotiations.”
Notably, the letter arrived after American Clean Power — another major trade group representing renewable energy companies — backed a major GOP-authored permitting bill called the SPEED Act that is moving through the House. Although the bill has some bipartisan support from the most moderate wing of the House Democratic caucus, it has yet to win support from Democrats involved in bipartisan permitting talks, including Representative Scott Peters, who told me he’d back the bill only if Trump were prevented from stalling federal decision-making for renewable energy projects.
SEIA has deliberately set itself apart from ACP in this regard, telling me last week that it was neutral on the legislation as it stands. In a statement released with the letter to Congress, the trade group’s CEO, Abigail Ross Hopper, said that while “the solar industry values the continued bipartisan engagement on permitting reform, the SPEED Act, as passed out of committee, falls short of addressing this core problem: the ongoing permitting moratorium.”
“To be clear, there is no question we need permitting reform,” Hopper stated. “There is an agreement to be reached, and SEIA and our 1,200 member companies will continue our months-long effort to advocate for a deal that ensures equal treatment of all energy sources, because the current status of this blockade is unsustainable.”
In a statement to Heatmap News, Interior spokesperson Alyse Sharpe confirmed the agency is using its “current review process” on “federal resources, permits or consultations” related to solar projects on “federal, state or private lands.” “This policy strengthens accountability, prevents misuse of taxpayer-funded subsidies and upholds our commitment to restoring balance in energy development.” The agency declined to comment on SEIA’s request to Congress, though. “We don’t provide comment on correspondence to Congress regarding Interior issues via the media,” Sharpe said.
A new model from Johns Hopkins’ Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab uses machine learning to predict tomorrow’s industrial powerhouses.
It’s no secret that China, Japan, and Germany are industrial powerhouses, with vast potential in clean tech manufacturing. So how’s a less industrialized nation with an eye on the economy of the future supposed to compete? Are protectionist policies such as tariffs a good way to jumpstart domestic manufacturing? Should it focus on subsidizing factory buildouts? Or does the whole game come down to GDP?
According to a new machine learning tool from Johns Hopkins’ Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, none of the above really matters all that much. Many of the policies that dominate geopolitical conversations aren’t strongly correlated with a country’s relative industrial potential, according to the model. The same goes for country-specific characteristics such as population, percentage of industry as a share of GDP, and foreign direct investment, a.k.a. FDI. What does count? A nation’s established industrial capabilities, and the degree to which they cross over to climate tech.
The purpose of the tool, named the Clean Industrial Capabilities Explorer, is to help policymakers “X-ray your country’s existing industrial base to identify what are your genuine strengths,” Tim Sahay, co-director of the lab, told me. The model, he explained, can identify “which core capabilities in your underlying industrial know-how are weak. That is like a diagnosis of what you should get into.”
The model calculates competitiveness across 10 clean energy technologies: solar, wind, batteries, electrolyzers, heat pumps, permanent magnets, nuclear, biofuels, geothermal, and transmission. That analysis ultimately surfaced five “core capabilities” that are most predictive of a country’s relative strength in each technology area: electronics, industrial materials, machinery, chemicals, and metals. Strength in geothermal, for example, is highly correlated with a machinery-focused industrial base, since building a geothermal plant requires expertise in making drilling rigs, heat exchangers, and steam turbines.
This “X-ray” of national capabilities not only confirms the dominance of leading Asian and European manufacturing economies, it also surfaces a group of lesser-known nations that appear well-positioned to become major future producers and exporters of key clean technologies. These so-called “future stars” include a handful of Central European countries — Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland — plus the Southeast Asian economies of Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. In Africa, Ethiopia emerges as the most promising economy.

Take Hungary as an example — its core competencies are machinery, electronics, and chemicals, making the country highly competitive when it comes to producing components for batteries, biofuels, and the machinery critical for geothermal power plants. The U.S., by comparison, excels at nuclear, electrolyzers, biofuel, and geothermal.
Many of the European future stars appear to benefit from their proximity to Germany, long an industrial stronghold in the region. “Poland, for example, received a huge amount of German FDI in the late 90s, early 2000s,” Sahay told me, explaining that countries in this region built up strength in their chemicals and metals sectors under the influence of the Soviet Union. Germany then set up these countries as key suppliers for its various industries, from autos to chemicals.
Of the 10 countries identified as rising stars, all of them received Chinese investment sometime in the past 10 years, Sahay said. “What we are seeing is decisions that have been made over the last couple of decades are bearing fruit in the 2020s,” he said, explaining that all of the countries on the list “were identified as places for potential investment by the world’s leading industrial firms in the 2000s or 2010s.”
This has led Bentley Allan, a political science professor and co-director of the policy lab, to think that China is likely doing some modeling of its own to determine where to direct its investments. Whatever the country is working with, it’s arriving at essentially the same conclusions regarding which nations show strong industrial potential, and are thus attractive targets for investment. “China isn’t the only one who can benefit from that strategy, but they’re the only ones being strategic about it at the moment,” Allan told me.
Allan’s hope is that the tool will democratize the knowledge that’s helped China dominate the global clean tech economy. “No one’s produced a global tool that enables not just China to invest strategically, but enables the U.S. to invest strategically, enables the UK to invest strategically in the developing world,” he explained. That’s critical when figuring out how to build an industrial base that can weather geopolitical tensions that might necessitate, say, a shift away from Chinese imports or Russian gas.
While it might not be particularly surprising that a country’s existing industrial capabilities strongly correlate with its potential industrial capabilities, the reality is that in many cases, getting a clear view of a country’s actual core competencies is not so straightforward. That’s because, as Allan told me, economists simply haven’t made widely available tools like this before. “They’ve made other tools for managing the macroeconomic environment, because for 60 years we basically thought that that was the only lever worth pulling,” he said.
Due to that opacity around industrial strength, model was able to yield some findings that the researchers found genuinely surprising. For example, not only did the tool show that countries such as the Philippines and Malaysia have stronger manufacturing bases than Allan would have guessed, it ranked Italy higher than Germany in overall competitiveness, showing solid potential in the nuclear, transmission, heat pump, electrolyzer, and geothermal industries.
That illustrates another complication the model solves for — namely that the countries with the most potential aren’t always the ones pursuing the most robust or intentional green industrial strategies. Both Italy and Japan, for instance, are well-positioned to benefit from a more explicit, structured focus on climate tech manufacturing, Allan told me.
Industrial strength will likely not be achieved through broad economic policies such as tariffs, subsidies, or grant programs, however, according to the model. Say for example that a country wants to deepen its expertise in solar manufacturing. “The things that you might want to invest in are things like precision machinery to produce the cutters that actually are used to cut the polysilicon into wafers,” Allan told me. “It’s more about making targeted investments in your industrial base in order to produce highly competitive niches as a way to then make you more competitive in that final product.”
This approach prevents countries from simply serving as final assemblers of battery packs or solar panels or other green products — a stage that provides low value-add, as countries aren’t able to capture the benefits of domestic research and development, engineering expertise, or intellectual property. Pinpointing strategic niches also helps countries avoid wasting their money in buzzy industries where they’re simply not competitive.
“The industrial policy race is very much hype-driven. It’s very much driven by, oh my god, we need a hydrogen strategy, and, oh my god, we need a lithium strategy,” Sahay told me. “But that’s not necessarily going to be what your country is going to be good at.” By pointing countries towards the industries and links in the supply chain where they actually could excel, Sahay and Allan can demonstrate they stand to benefit from the clean energy transition at large.
Or to put it more broadly, when done correctly, “industrial policy is climate policy, in the sense that when you advance industry generally, you are actually advancing the climate,” Allan told me. “And climate policy is industrial policy, because when you are trying to advance the climate, you advance the industrial base.”