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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Friday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for some of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Six major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event last week:
Officials are investigating the cause of the fires and have not made any public statements yet. Early eyewitness accounts suggest that the Eaton Fire may have started at the base of a transmission tower owned by Southern California Edison. So far, the company has maintained that an analysis of its equipment showed “no interruptions or electrical or operational anomalies until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire.” A Washington Post investigation found that the Palisades Fire could have risen from the remnants of a fire that burned on New Year’s Eve and reignited.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At more than 40,000 acres burned total, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 9,000 structures damaged as of Friday morning, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 5,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between wet and dry years over the past eight decades.
But climate change is expected to make dry years drier and wet years wetter, creating a “hydroclimate whiplash,” as Daniel Swain, a pre-eminent expert on climate change and weather in California puts it. In a thread on Bluesky, Swain wrote that “in 2024, Southern California experienced an exceptional episode of wet-to-dry hydroclimate whiplash.” Last year’s rainy winter fostered abundant plant growth, and the proceeding dryness primed the vegetation for fire.
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Editor’s note: This story was last update on Monday, January 13, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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The startup told Heatmap exclusively that the funding will help it reach new markets in the U.S. and abroad.
By 2035, BloombergNEF projects that the U.S. will build an additional 221 gigawatts of battery storage, a more than 10-tenfold increase from July of last year. But as intermittent renewables, rising electricity demand, and extreme weather make grid operations increasingly complex, it can be a struggle for energy producers to manage their battery assets as efficiently and profitably as they could be — discharging when prices are highest and energy is needed most and charging when prices are lowest.
Tyba helps a range of companies — from oil major TotalEnergies to smaller, independent energy producers — optimize their battery storage systems. The startup’s AI-enabled platform provides timely, accurate price forecasts and automates energy dispatch decisions and bidding strategies to sell electricity into the market. The company just raised a $13.9 million Series A round, led by the climate tech investor Energize Capital, bringing its total funding to $18.5 million. Tyba currently supports over 1 gigawatt of batteries in California and Texas, but Baker told me this latest funding round will allow the company to expand into new markets domestically, and eventually internationally.
“When there’s a winter storm, or when there’s a plant that trips offline, prices can go up from, on average, $50 to $5,000, and so that massive spike drives a tremendous amount of revenue. In a single five-minute interval, we might earn up to 20% of the revenue for a year,” Tyba’s CEO and co-founder Michael Baker told me. “Our forecast strategies and also our bidding strategies are especially tuned to forecasting those events and making sure we’re in the market to sell power and capture that.”
Referring to data from Texas energy regulator ERCOT, Baker told me that top-performing battery assets there generated about 50% more revenue than average-performing assets, and that the batteries Tyba managed were consistently in the top tier. (California doesn’t release as much data, so he can’t be as precise, but Baker said “the uplift is comparable“ there.) Energy producers today generally work with less sophisticated, bespoke software solutions that are difficult to replicate, as they’re usually tailor-made to solve specific problems in specific markets. Especially in a political environment that’s unfriendly to renewables development in general, though, making battery storage systems the most profitable option for power producers is an obvious way to ensure they’re more widely deployed.
“These developers, they’re infrastructure companies. They’re not technology companies,” Tyler Lancaster, a partner at Energize Capital, explained. And they’ve had a hard time building software that can keep up with the ever-changing needs of the grid. “As a result, they’ve seen those assets and those batteries that they’ve deployed generate a lot less revenue than they thought.”
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions are likely areas for growth due to their acute grid capacity needs, he said. Many of Tyba’s customers are working closely with data center developers as tech companies desperately seek out clean, reliable power to support their AI-driven load growth.
As for the impact of President Trump’s increased tariffs on Chinese imports or the potential elimination of Inflation Reduction Act incentives such as the investment and production tax credits, neither would be good news for the battery storage sector at large. “If we do have substantial tariffs and there is any impact on the tax credits, that will certainly slow down the pace of deployment and the growth of these technologies,” Baker told me. Tyba’s customers are gearing up. “They’re definitely preparing for the worst, including things like pre-purchasing equipment years in advance.”
The economics of battery storage have to be an undeniable winner to weather these headwinds, and Baker is confident that Tyba can help the sector continue its momentum over the next four years and beyond. As he told me, “The overall fundamentals of renewable energy are pretty undeniable.”
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify the description of Tyba’s model.
Current conditions: Back-to-back winter storms are hammering states in the Northeast with ice and snow • Atmospheric rivers have dropped more than 2 feet of rain on parts of Northern California in recent days • Temperatures could soar above 120 degrees Fahrenheit this week in Western Australia.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed an order yesterday telling the Department of Energy to “unleash American energy” and restore “energy dominance” in line with President Trump’s agenda. Wright, who was confirmed by the Senate on Monday, began his order by denigrating the quest for a carbon-free future, claiming that net-zero policies “threaten the reliability of our energy system, and undermine our energy and national security.” After getting that out of the way, he went on to outline the following priorities:
The Army Corps of Engineers has paused all permitting for well over 100 actions related to renewable energy projects across the country. In a statement to Heatmap’s Jael Holzman, the Army Corps confirmed it has “temporarily paused evaluation on” 168 pending permit actions “focused on regulated activities associated with renewable energy projects.” According to the statement, the Army Corps froze work on those permitting actions “pending feedback from the Administration on the applicability” of an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, “Unleashing American Energy,” and that the agency “anticipates feedback on or about” February 7 from administration officials. Climate advocates are already pressing the panic button. “This is a 5 alarm fire alert,” Nick Abraham, state communications director for League of Conservation Voters, wrote on Bluesky in response to Holzman’s reporting. “This could decimate all the clean energy we worked to pass under Biden.”
The Danish wind power company Orsted, which has a number of wind projects in the United States, said yesterday that it will “reduce its investment programme” by a quarter through 2030. This planned reduction will be global, not just in the United States, where the Trump administration has put a virtual embargo on new offshore wind permitting. The company said that it will still install more than 8 gigawatts of wind capacity over the next three years. Orsted replaced its chief executive Mads Nipper last week after it took a writedown of over $1.5 billion thanks to delays on its Sunrise wind project off the coast of Long Island. The company said it was scaling back its investments in order to maintain its credit rating. “Orsted has experienced challenges, especially related to the U.S. offshore wind portfolio, which have led to further pressure on our credit metric,” the company said in a statement.
Carbon Mapper yesterday released another tranche of data from its greenhouse gas-measuring satellite, the Tanager-1, shedding light on more than 300 newly-spotted CO2 and methane plumes. The largest methane source in Carbon Mapper’s database by far remains the U.S. Permian Basin, where oil and gas operations are concentrated. The Tanager-1 satellite, launched in August 2024, has identified 707 methane plumes from 588 sources across the world. Fossil fuel production accounts for 522 of those plumes and 458 of the sources. Here is a glance at some of the methane plumes spotted in the U.S., and zooming in on part of the Permian Basin
Carbon Mapper
Carbon Mapper
Volkswagen gave employees a glimpse of its upcoming affordable EV model yesterday. The car is part of a new lineup that the company no doubt hopes will help it keep pace with Tesla and BYD. “We set the largest future plan in Volkswagen’s history in motion,” CEO Thomas Schäfer said. “We are pursuing an ambitious path to ensure we achieve our shared goals with full commitment. A key step in this is making e-mobility attractive for everyone – that is our brand promise.” The entry-level EV will go on sale in Europe in 2027 with a base price of €20,000, which is about $20,800. It’s not clear if the car will come to the U.S. VW recently canceled the rollout of its ID.7 in the States. VW will start showing off the car – rumored to be called the ID.ONE – to the public next month. But here’s an image released yesterday:
Volkswagen
Novo Nordisk’s emissions grew by 25% last year due to increased production of its popular obesity drug, Wegovy.
The Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees U.S. wetlands, has halted processing on 168 pending wind and solar actions, a spokesperson confirmed to Heatmap.
The Army Corps of Engineers confirmed that it has paused all permitting for well over 100 actions related to renewable energy projects across the country — information that raises more questions than it answers about how government permitting offices are behaving right now.
On Tuesday, I reported that the Trump administration had all but paralyzed environmental permitting decisions on solar and wind projects, even for facilities constructed away from federal lands. According to an internal American Clean Power Association memo sent to the trade association’s members and dated the previous day, the Army Corps of Engineers apparatus for approving projects on federally shielded wetlands had come to a standstill. Officials in some parts of the agency have refused even to let staff make a formal determination as to whether proposed projects touch protected wetlands, I reported.
In a statement to me, the Army Corps has confirmed it has “temporarily paused evaluation on” 168 pending permit actions “focused on regulated activities associated with renewable energy projects.” According to the statement, the Army Corps froze work on those permitting actions “pending feedback from the Administration on the applicability” of an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, “Unleashing American Energy,” and that the agency “anticipates feedback on or about” February 7 from administration officials.
While the statement demonstrates how vast the potential impacts to the renewables sector may be, it also leaves several important questions unanswered. It’s unclear whether each pending permit action that has been frozen applies to its own individual project, or whether some projects have more than one permit pending before the Army Corps, so it is still fuzzy precisely how many projects may be impacted. The Army Corps did not say whether that feedback would lead to the lifting of holds on permitting activity, nor did it explain why the holds were enacted in the first place.
Finally, there’s one big question that still needs answering: The executive order in question focuses on fossil fuel projects and says nothing about renewable energy — no mentions of “renewable,” no “solar,” no “wind.” Why did this order trigger a permitting freeze in the first place? This level of confusion and ambiguity is part and parcel with other statements in the ACP memo, including that guidance and agency perspectives have varied widely in recent weeks depending on who in the government is being asked.
Climate advocates are already pressing the panic button. “This is a 5 alarm fire alert. This could decimate all the clean energy we worked to pass under Biden,” Nick Abraham, state communications director for League of Conservation Voters, wrote on Bluesky in response to my reporting.
I asked the Army Corps for clarity on how the executive order led to a pause on their permitting activity, and we’ll update this story if we hear back.