Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

What Started the Fires in Los Angeles?

Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.

Los Angeles.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Friday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?

Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for some of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.

Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.

How many fires are burning in Los Angeles County and where are they?

Six major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event last week:


  • The Palisades Fire, in the Pacific Palisades, which has burned nearly 24,000 acres, started on Tuesday, January 7, around 10:30 a.m. Pacific time.
  • The Eaton Fire, north of Pasadena, which has burned more than 14,000 acres, started on Tuesday just after 6:00 p.m.
  • The Hurst Fire, in the northern edge of the San Fernando Valley, which has burned about 800 acres, started on Tuesday night around 10:30 pm.
  • The Lidia Fire, in Acton, California, just north of Angeles National Forest, which has burned roughly 400 acres, started on Wednesday afternoon around 1:00 p.m. As of Saturday morning it was declared 100% contained.
  • The Sunset Fire, in the Hollywood Hills, which has burned about 43 acres, started on Wednesday night around 5:30 p.m. Evacuation orders lifted early Thursday morning, when the fire’s “forward progress has been stopped,” and crews were working to “put out hotspots within the fire perimeter and keep the wind from spreading embers,” according to Los Angeles Fire Department Public Information Officer Erik Scott.
  • The Kenneth Fire, in the hills above Calabasas, which burned a little over 1,000 acres, started on Thursday around 3:30 p.m. As of Sunday morning it was declared 100% contained.

How did the fires start?

Officials are investigating the cause of the fires and have not made any public statements yet. Early eyewitness accounts suggest that the Eaton Fire may have started at the base of a transmission tower owned by Southern California Edison. So far, the company has maintained that an analysis of its equipment showed “no interruptions or electrical or operational anomalies until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire.” A Washington Post investigation found that the Palisades Fire could have risen from the remnants of a fire that burned on New Year’s Eve and reignited.

On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.

It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.

But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.

How do these fires compare to past fires in California?

At more than 40,000 acres burned total, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 9,000 structures damaged as of Friday morning, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.

And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 5,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.

Why are these fires so bad? Is it climate change?

While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.

First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.

Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”

Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.

These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.

While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between wet and dry years over the past eight decades.

But climate change is expected to make dry years drier and wet years wetter, creating a “hydroclimate whiplash,” as Daniel Swain, a pre-eminent expert on climate change and weather in California puts it. In a thread on Bluesky, Swain wrote that “in 2024, Southern California experienced an exceptional episode of wet-to-dry hydroclimate whiplash.” Last year’s rainy winter fostered abundant plant growth, and the proceeding dryness primed the vegetation for fire.


Get our best story delivered to your inbox every day:

* indicates required
  • Editor’s note: This story was last update on Monday, January 13, at 10:00 a.m. ET.

    Green

    You’re out of free articles.

    Subscribe to access Heatmap’s expert analysis of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability. Save $57 on an annual subscription, just $156 $99/year.
    To continue reading
    Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
    or
    Please enter an email address
    By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
    Daily Briefing

    The U.S. Economy’s Omni-Trend

    The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.

    A Google data center.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.

    It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:

    Keep reading...Show less
    Green
    Q&A

    The Health Researcher Diving into Data Center Policy

    A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.

    The Q&A subject.
    Heatmap Illustration

    This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.

    Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

    Keep reading...Show less
    Yellow
    Hotspots

    Anti-Solar Protests Are the Cool New Campaign Move in Wisconsin

    Plus more of the week’s big development fights.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.

    • Meta this week appealed the $10,000 fine that the board of public utilities issued over a rare bacteria found in Cheyenne’s sewer system. Meta is contesting any responsibility for the contaminant, claiming the board should’ve fined the construction company Fortis instead. You can read the full appeal here.
    • Afterwards, the board publicly released hundreds of pages of emails revealing how and why government employees linked the bacteria to Meta, specifically, including that officials tied the bacteria’s presence to the usage of closed-loop cooling systems for data centers. The emails also show local officials knew the water pollution was linked to the data center months earlier than previously thought. All the emails are available here.
    • Meanwhile, Cheyenne residents are attempting a long-shot bid to undo the annexation for the Microsoft data center I told you about. It’s unlikely to succeed because petitioners need to get about 10% of the last election cycle’s voting population to sign within 20 days… which at more than 2,000 people sounds all but impossible without a massive grassroots campaign.

    2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.

    Keep reading...Show less
    Yellow