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On climate-friendly toys, the Sunrise Movement, and solar-powered schools

Current conditions: Torrential rain caused a dam to burst in eastern Sudan, killing at least 30 people • Brazil’s environment minister said the country is “at war” with wildfires • The scorching heat that has blanketed the Midwest this week is shifting east.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s annual Energy and Employment report is out today. It’s a compendium of information on employment and job growth across the many energy-related sectors of the economy, and contains hundreds of data points on which job areas grew, which shrank, and by how much in 2023. The report “is perhaps one of the current administration’s last opportunities to prove that President Biden’s — and, by extension, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ — policies to stimulate the U.S. economy with investments in clean energy are working,” wrote Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo. Here are her three takeaways:
The Sunrise Movement, a climate change group led by young people, this week launched an effort to reach out to 1.5 million Americans about voting for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. The campaign will rely on 3,000 volunteers to contact voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania to remind them of the differences between Harris and her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, on the issue of climate change. But the Sunrise Movement won’t go so far as to offer its endorsement to Harris just yet – if it ever does. It’s waiting for her to flesh out her climate policies before making a decision. For what it’s worth, the group never officially endorsed President Biden.
“Young climate voters could decide this election,” Sunrise communications director Stevie O’Hanlon said in a statement. “The Harris-Walz ticket means millions more young voters are tuning in and considering voting. We’re going all-out to reach those voters and mobilize our generation to defeat Trump this November. And it’s why we will continue to urge the Harris campaign to put forward a bold vision that will energize young voters.”
Lego, the world’s largest toymaker, announced today that it will remove fossil fuels from its plastic bricks by 2032. The plan is to make toys using a new kind of renewable and recycled plastic made from biowaste, like oil or fat discarded from the food industry. This is more expensive than using cheap and plentiful fossil fuels, and the company will pay up to 70% more for the certified renewable resin in hopes that this will spur on production of recycled and renewable plastics. Lego will dig into operating profit to pay for the added expense rather than hiking prices, CEO Niels Christiansen told the Financial Times. Thanks in part to the company’s partnership with the makers of the Fortnite video game, profits in the first half of 2024 were up a record 26%, even as the broader toy market declined by 1%. Most virgin plastics are made from fossil fuels, and plastic production is projected to be a new growth market for oil in the years to come.
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Last year marked the first time that zero-carbon energy sources comprised more than 40% of the world’s electricity generation, according to new data from BloombergNEF. Here’s the actual breakdown: 57% fossil fuels, 24% nuclear and hydroelectric, 17% renewables like wind and solar. More than 90% of new energy capacity added last year came from wind and solar, up from 83% in 2022. Fossil fuels were just 6% of new capacity. “We have seen a step-change in renewable energy compared to a few years before,” said Sofia Maia, energy transition analyst at BloombergNEF. “There's now no question this is the largest source of new power generation, wherever you go.”
The amount of solar power installed at K-12 schools in America has quadrupled since 2014, Electrek reported, citing a new report from clean energy nonprofit Generation180. Last year alone, more than 800 schools added solar panels. The amount of solar energy generated by K-12 schools in the country is enough to power 330,000 households. These schools save money on energy bills, and many redirect that funding into student and community programs. The top states in terms of school solar capacity are California, New Jersey, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.
China’s efforts to reduce air pollution over the last decade or so have resulted in the average citizen’s lifespan increasing by two years.
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“It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
A federal court shot down President Trump’s attempt to kill New York City’s congestion pricing program on Tuesday, allowing the city’s $9 toll on cars entering downtown Manhattan during peak hours to remain in effect.
Judge Lewis Liman of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the Trump administration’s termination of the program was illegal, writing, “It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
So concludes a fight that began almost exactly one year ago, just after Trump returned to the White House. On February 19, 2025, the newly minted Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, rescinding the federal government’s approval of the congestion pricing fee. President Trump had expressed concerns about the program, Duffy said, leading his department to review its agreement with the state and determine that the program did not adhere to the federal statute under which it was approved.
Duffy argued that the city was not allowed to cordon off part of the city and not provide any toll-free options for drivers to enter it. He also asserted that the program had to be designed solely to relieve congestion — and that New York’s explicit secondary goal of raising money to improve public transit was a violation.
Trump, meanwhile, likened himself to a monarch who had risen to power just in time to rescue New Yorkers from tyranny. That same day, the White House posted an image to social media of Trump standing in front of the New York City skyline donning a gold crown, with the caption, "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"
New York had only just launched the tolling program a month earlier after nearly 20 years of deliberation — or, as reporter and Hell Gate cofounder Christopher Robbins put it in his account of those years for Heatmap, “procrastination.” The program was supposed to go into effect months earlier before, at the last minute, Hochul tried to delay the program indefinitely, claiming it was too much of a burden on New Yorkers’ wallets. She ultimately allowed congestion pricing to proceed with the fee reduced from $15 during peak hours to $9, and thereafter became one of its champions. The state immediately challenged Duffy’s termination order in court and defied the agency’s instruction to shut down the program, keeping the toll in place for the entirety of the court case.
In May, Judge Liman issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the DOT from terminating the agreement, noting that New York was likely to succeed in demonstrating that Duffy had exceeded his authority in rescinding it.
After the first full year the program was operating, the state reported 27 million fewer vehicles entering lower Manhattan and a 7% boost to transit ridership. Bus speeds were also up, traffic noise complaints were down, and the program raised $550 million in net revenue.
The final court order issued Tuesday rejected Duffy’s initial arguments for terminating the program, as well as additional justifications he supplied later in the case.
“We disagree with the court’s ruling,” a spokesperson for the Transportation Department told me, adding that congestion pricing imposes a “massive tax on every New Yorker” and has “made federally funded roads inaccessible to commuters without providing a toll-free alternative.” The Department is “reviewing all legal options — including an appeal — with the Justice Department,” they said.
Current conditions: A cluster of thunderstorms is moving northeast across the middle of the United States, from San Antonio to Cincinnati • Thailand’s disaster agency has put 62 provinces, including Bangkok, on alert for severe summer storms through the end of the week • The American Samoan capital of Pago Pago is in the midst of days of intense thunderstorms.
We are only four days into the bombing campaign the United States and Israel began Saturday in a bid to topple the Islamic Republic’s regime. Oil prices closed Monday nearly 9% higher than where trading started last Friday. Natural gas prices, meanwhile, spiked by 5% in the U.S. and 45% in Europe after Qatar announced a halt to shipments of liquified natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which tapers at its narrowest point to just 20 miles between the shores of Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It’s a sign that the war “isn’t just an oil story,” Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday. Like any good tale, it has some irony: “The one U.S. natural gas export project scheduled to start up soon is, of all things, a QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil joint venture.” Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer further explored the LNG angle with Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew on the latest episode of Shift Key.
At least for now, the bombing of Iranian nuclear enrichment sites hasn’t led to any detectable increase in radiation levels in countries bordering Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday. That includes the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Tehran research reactor, and other facilities. “So far, no elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels has been detected in countries bordering Iran,” Director General Rafael Grossi said in a statement.
Financial giants are once again buying a utility in a bet on electricity growth. A consortium led by BlackRock subsidiary Global Infrastructure Partners and Swedish private equity heavyweight EQT announced a deal Monday to buy utility giant AES Corp. The acquisition was valued at more than $33 billion and is expected to close by early next year at the latest. “AES is a leader in competitive generation,” Bayo Ogunlesi, the chief executive officer of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, said in a statement. “At a time in which there is a need for significant investments in new capacity in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, especially in the United States of America, we look forward to utilizing GIP’s experience in energy infrastructure investing, as well as our operational capabilities to help accelerate AES’ commitment to serve the market needs for affordable, safe and reliable power.” The move comes almost exactly a year after the infrastructure divisions at Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, bought the Albuquerque-based utility TXNM Energy in an $11.5 billion gamble on surging power demand.
China’s output of solar power surpassed that of wind for the first time last year as cheap panels flooded the market at home and abroad. The country produced nearly 1.2 million gigawatt-hours of electricity from solar power in 2025, up 40% from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg analysis of National Bureau of Statistics data published Saturday. Wind generation increased just 13% to more than 1.1 gigawatt-hours. The solar boom comes as Beijing bolsters spending on green industry across the board. China went from spending virtually nothing on fusion energy development to investing more in one year than the entire rest of the world combined, as I have previously reported. To some, China is — despite its continued heavy use of coal — a climate hero, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham has written.
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Canada and India have a longstanding special friendship on nuclear power. Both countries — two of the juggernauts of the 56-country Commonwealth of Nations — operate fleets that rely heavily on pressurized heavy water reactors, a very different design than the light water reactors that make up the vast majority of the fleets in Europe and the United States. Ottawa helped New Delhi build its first nuclear plants. Now the two countries have renewed their atomic ties in what the BBC called a “landmark” deal Monday. As part of the pact, India signed a nine-year agreement with Canada’s largest uranium miner, Cameco, to supply fuel to New Delhi’s growing fleet of seven nuclear plants. The $1.9 billion deal opens a new market for Canada’s expanding production of uranium ore and gives India, which has long worried about its lack of domestic deposits, a stable supply of fuel.
India, meanwhile, is charging ahead with two new reactors at the Kaiga atomic power station in the southwestern state of Karnataka. The units are set to be IPHWR-700, natively designed pressurized heavy water reactors. Last week, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India poured the first concrete on the new pair of reactors, NucNet reported Monday.
The Spanish refiner Moeve has decided to move forward with an investment into building what Hydrogen Insight called “a scaled-back version” of the first phase of its giant 2-gigawatt Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley project. Even in a less ambitious form, Reuters pegged the total value of the project at $1.2 billion. Meanwhile in the U.S., as I wrote yesterday, is losing major projects right as big production facilities planned before Trump returned to office come online.
Speaking of building, the LEGO Group is investing another $2.8 million into carbon dioxide removal. The Danish toymaker had already pumped money into carbon-removal projects overseen by Climate Impact Partners and ClimeFi. At this point, LEGO has committed $8.5 million to sucking planet-heating carbon out of the atmosphere, where it circulates for centuries. “As the program expands, it is helping to strengthen our understanding of different approaches and inform future decision-making on how carbon removal may complement our wider climate goals,” Annette Stube, LEGO’s chief sustainability officer, told Carbon Herald.
In this special edition of Shift Key, Rob talks to Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew about how the U.S.-Israeli-led conflict will reshape global energy markets.
The United States and Israel have launched a devastating new war on Iran. What has happened so far, when could it end, and what could it mean for oil, gas, and the global energy shift?
Rob is joined by Gregory Brew, an analyst with the Eurasia Group’s energy, climate, and resources team focused on the geopolitics of oil and gas. He serves as the group’s country analyst for Iran. He’s also an historian of modern Iran, oil, and U.S. foreign policy, and the author of two books about the subject.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I think the first place that people’s minds go when you’re talking about Iran, when you’re talking about the Strait of Hormuz, is oil. Why is the Strait of Hormuz particularly important to the global oil market? And then second of all, what have we seen as the initial effects here?
Gregory Brew: So the Strait of Hormuz matters for three reasons. One, it is a very narrow waterway. So it is quite easy, theoretically, to block it. Other waterways — even the Bab el-Mandab and the Red Sea, the Strait of Malacca, other strategic pathways through which large quantities of energy move — are not so easily disrupted as the Strait of Hormuz. That’s reason number one.
Reason number two, Iran. Iran is there. Iran frequently threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, frequently threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. It is a hostile actor vis-à-vis the other states in the region. We are now seeing proof of that, given that it is open fire on the GCC in a concerted way. That’s another reason why the Strait of Hormuz gets so much attention as far as the connection between the strait, the strait security and the situation in the global oil market.
The third reason — I guess there are four reasons. The third reason is the volume of energy moving through the strait. It’s close to a fifth of global oil supply. It’s 20 million barrels a day, sometimes a little more. It’s a significant portion of the global LNG supply coming from Qatar has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A large quantity of refined products, metal distillates, condensates, fuel oil moves through the strait. So the volume affected by the strait being closed or disrupted or affected in some way is very, very large.
Finally, fourth point, there’s nowhere else to go. You can’t go around the Strait of Hormuz. You have to go through it. Tankers that can’t transit the strait or are blocked from doing so have no other options. There’s no Africa route, as there was with the Red Sea disruption. So for those four reasons, the Strait of Hormuz gets a lot of attention. And it’s why it’s getting attention now. Although, interestingly enough, price of oil has responded, but has not moved so in a significant way, at least per some people’s expectations.
Meyer: Well, the theme of the year in oil so far has been that there’s a glut of oil. Or there’s at least a small glut of oil. We’ve kind of been dealing with that for a long time. And so I wonder if that is in some way — one hesitates to call this good for oil markets, but it is kind of solving an issue for the market. Do you think oil is the most important energy product affected by this war?
Brew: Well, it’s certainly the largest in terms of volume, given how much oil moves through the strait. However, I think this could end up being a gas story as much as an oil story.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
From Heatmap: War With Iran Isn’t Just an Oil Story
From Heatmap: How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Accelerate your clean energy career with Yale’s online certificate programs. Explore the 10-month Financing and Deploying Clean Energy program or the 5-month Clean and Equitable Energy Development program. Use referral code HeatMap26 and get your application in by the priority deadline for $500 off tuition to one of Yale’s online certificate programs in clean energy. Learn more at cbey.yale.edu/online-learning-opportunities.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.