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Daily Briefing

The Next Wave of Climate Extremes Is Taking Shape

Wildfires in France and Spain — and a dire El Niño forecast — point to another era of public attention on disaster.

A fire in Europe.

Wildfires and the Return of Climate Politics

Miguel RIOPA / AFP via Getty Images

Enormous wildfires are still burning in France and Spain. “We're facing a completely unprecedented fire,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday, comparing the situation to World War II. The main fire in Gironde, a southwestern department along the Atlantic coast, have consumed more than 100,000 acres and forced roughly 200,000 people to evacuate.

There’s little sign the fires are under control in either country. In France, the blazes created a pyrocumulonimbus cloud — a towering, thundering “fire storm” that sometimes forms in the western United States but is not often observed in western Europe. Some fires have come within several miles of Bordeaux, the country’s sixth-largest metropolitan area and a longtime center of the wine industry. In Spain, enormous wildfires near Madrid, Ávila, and Toledo have killed one and displaced roughly another 79,000 people.

Firefighters are working fast, in part because a heatwave is forecast for the continent later this week. But of course it is hot — it is high summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and we are having a particularly hot year. 2026 now looks likely to be the world’s second-warmest year ever, and it has a better than one-third chance of being the warmest.

In the near term, expect more climate-addled disasters. The Pacific Ocean has slipped into its El Niño phase, which will likely spin off more extreme storms, droughts, heat waves, and wildfires. Recent modeling suggests it could be the most intense El Niño ever measured. Writing for his newsletter “The Climate Brink,” the climate researcher (and Heatmap contributor) Zeke Hausfather recently warned: “It looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began — it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

How do we know this next El Niño will be bad? The most intense El Niño on record occurred from late 2015 to 2016, when sea surface temperatures in a benchmark region of the Pacific Ocean were 2.75 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. (That’s nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit.) Those searing sea temperatures released huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere and eventually made 2016 the warmest year ever recorded. Today, a decade later, 2016 remains the fourth warmest year on record, coming in only under 2024, 2023, and 2025, per NOAA data.

But as Zeke writes, the middle 80% of modeled outcomes for this year’s El Niño are already projected to match or exceed that 2016 anomaly. The median forecast for this year’s event, in other words, would shatter the previous record. “The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” he writes. The National Weather Service agrees that there is an 81% chance of an event forming “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” and it says odds are better than 97% that the anomaly will stick around through spring 2027.

Scientists and activists once hoped that when global warming’s effects became unignorable, the public would take action. But disasters haven’t produced durable climate concern, and public attention has dissipated with every news cycle — and become ever more pessimistic. There are moments, however, when successive extremes can keep climate change more prominently in the public conversation. The years that followed the last mega-El Niño in 2016 made up one such period. If we are headed for another now, then experts should be ready with ideas not only for slowing and reversing the growth of heat-trapping emissions, but also for adapting our societies and infrastructure for our warming world. It’s clear we are going to need them.

The other mega-trend?

This will be a big week for understanding the U.S. energy economy’s most important trend. A handful of tech companies driving the artificial intelligence boom — namely, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon — will report their quarterly earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. These companies are behind some of the country’s largest AI data center projects and therefore some of its most sizable planned power plants — clean and otherwise.

Last week, when Alphabet boosted its capital expenditure for this year by another $15 billion, the market rebelled and sent its shares tumbling. If investors’ interest in financing mega-scale data center projects is waning, then it could affect the electricity economy for years to come. In any case, we’ll know more soon. Rivian will also report its earnings this week.

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Politics

How a Rhode Island Mayoral Race Became a Referendum on Climate Policy

In Providence, at least, climate change is still on the ballot.

Providence mayoral candidates.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images, Library of Congress

Here’s some trivia for you: What was the first state to see its average temperature break the 2-degree Celsius threshold for warming above pre-industrial levels? It wasn’t Alaska, the fastest-warming state, nor was it California or Florida, states with some of the most visible impacts of the extreme weather crisis. It was not Arizona or Texas, either, though “hot” and “warming” are often conflated.

The answer, in fact, is humble Rhode Island, which passed the international benchmark for accelerated climatic impacts back in 2019. It is perhaps less surprising, then, to learn that in the Ocean State’s largest city, Providence, climate change and how to adapt to it have become one of the central talking points in a heated mayoral race, which in the deep-blue city is likely to culminate in the September 9 primary.

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Q&A

How an ‘Abundance’ Policy Shop Is Approaching Data Centers

Chatting about win-win solutions with the Abundance Institute’s Ryan Norris.

Ryan Norris.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Ryan Norris, senior fellow for energy policy at the Abundance Institute. The libertarian-leaning institute — whose name cleverly shortens to AI — is a new-ish entity with increasing relevance in energy and tech spaces. As Norris and I discussed, it’s starting to help shape policy on data center development and the generation that’ll power it all, especially in Republican circles. Norris himself previously worked with Americans for Prosperity, a right-wing political organization. I reached out to him and asked if we could chat because I wanted to know more about the institute’s work within the energy space. He wound up saying a lot more than I expected. So let’s dive into it.

The following conversation was lightly edited and abridged for clarity.

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Hotspots

Wisconsin’s Anti-Data Center Voters Never Showed Up

Plus more of the week’s biggest development fights.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Shelby County, Alabama — The Trump administration’s widening effort to intervene in rural energy project fights is facing an early test: What happens if companies don’t take it seriously?

  • This week country music star John Rich, Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners,” explained to an Alabama radio station that one of his first public efforts to support a landowner with administration support ran aground. Rich said he reached out to Alabama Power in the hopes they it could move a planned transmission line cutting across the property of a trucking company owner seeking to retire in the woods. But Rich said Alabama Power has so far shrugged off both him and the Agriculture Department, refusing to allow any company representatives to speak with them.
  • “They farmed my conversation out to a third party attorney. Outside counsel. Not even someone with Alabama Power,” Rich told radio host Leland White. After an hour and a half with the attorney led to “no answers,” the musician said, he sent questions in writing with USDA assistance, which he claimed were met with “legal mumbo jumbo.” “It’s like a slap in the face. I still haven’t spoken to anyone at Alabama Power about this.”
  • Rich told the radio host he may raise the landowner’s issues directly with President Trump. Alabama Power did not respond to a request for comment from me. The utility so far has declined to address specifics with local media, citing ongoing litigation over the conflict.
  • If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say this is a turning point for the Trump administration’s efforts to expand its energy culture war saber-rattling tactics beyond renewable energy permitting. So much of the transmission process, for example, happens outside of any federal purview. Should Rich actually try to raise this issue with the president, what could Trump do besides a Truth Social post? If that’s where this heads, then I think we’re seeing this effort hit a wall, at least for now.

2. Ozaukee County, Wisconsin — Speaking of walls, we just saw the political power of the data center resistance hit one in the Badger State.

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