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Goodhart’s Law tells us that “when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” The disagreements climate diplomats were having last week highlight why.
Last week, climate negotiators sparred in Bonn, Germany, over a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance. The NCQG, as it’s labeled, is a new target for how much money governments must mobilize to meet global climate investment needs consistent with goals set down in the United Nations’ landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. Reaching a consensus on the NCQG is the biggest item on negotiators’ plates between Bonn and COP29, the annual United Nations-led conference on climate change, happening this fall in Baku, Azerbaijan. But, true to Goodhart, the global climate targets negotiators are deadlocked over are not good measurements of progress, let alone ones that developed countries measured up to.
In 2009, at COP15 in Copenhagen, developed countries set a goal of mobilizing $100 billion annually for climate investments in developing countries by 2020. In 2015, as part of the Paris Agreement, the world’s climate diplomats agreed to set an updated goal — the NCQG — before 2025. In the interim, developed countries achieved their original goal, although years later than planned and amidst allegations that some of their grants and loans were merely existing sources of development financing dressed up as climate finance. That there is no fixed definition of the term “climate finance” makes the $100 billion target doubly fuzzy: Upon closer inspection, some spending classified as climate finance doesn’t really seem like it should count, while other spending seems to have circled back to donor country governments, consultants, and nonprofits.
Despite these measurement issues, negotiators at Bonn pressed for an ambitious updated target. There was consensus that the NCQG could not be less than $100 billion annually — but that is where agreement ended. While negotiators from developing countries ― particularly those from African and Asian governments ― called for an NCQG as high as $1.4 trillion annually over the next five years, developed country negotiators refused to commit to a figure, choosing instead to argue over which countries should be expected to pay. Held up over this disagreement, Bonn ended without a resolution even on what a range of possible NCQGs could look like.
Whatever its size, this target means nothing without a plan to deliver it. What’s more, the back-and-forth over the size of the bill and who foots it took up so much time last week that two other long-standing debates were neglected: The first over what type of financing the NCQG should prioritize ― a measurement issue ― and the second about the obstacles (or “disenablers,” as negotiators called them) in the way of achieving that level of financing — a target issue.
As to the type of financing, the share of total official development assistance sent from G7 governments and the European Union to African countries is at its lowest in 50 years, making it possible to conclude, as did an EU negotiator at Bonn, that “public resources alone will not suffice” to meet the NCQG. The growing scale of the climate challenge, weighed against this apparent (if arguably self-imposed) inadequate public spending by developed countries, has prompted policymakers to advocate for greater private-sector involvement in meeting global climate finance targets. The United States in particular has placed heavy emphasis on the need to “mobilize private capital.” This agenda has prompted Global North governments and the World Bank to attract private investors to decarbonization projects in developing countries.
Developing country negotiators and civil society advocates, meanwhile, have long criticized the fact that the majority of the climate financing we know about has come in the form of loans and not grants, and that most of the loans ― some of the ones from the public sector and all of the private loans ― are issued on market-rate rather than “concessional” terms. In other words, all this so-called help places an undue burden on the balance sheets of developing countries, especially as global interest rates stay high.
Some negotiators are looking to incorporate these arguments into the NCQG as a measure of the quality of the financing developing countries receive. And this is where the conversation around the obstacles begins.
One can argue that loans of any kind are better than nothing at all; long-term investments require long-term debt financing. But market-rate loans in the Global South carry prohibitively high interest rates, reflecting the greater risks that private investors think they face when investing. The International Energy Agency confirms that “the cost of capital for a typical solar PV plant in 2021 was between two‐ and three‐times higher in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies and China.” While policymakers, particularly at the World Bank, are developing tools to “derisk” these investments such that they can be profitable at market interest rates, it’s still not clear that private sector creditors will respond with enthusiasm. Under these conditions, many climate-vulnerable communities are liable to be locked out of capital markets.
Debt, after all, is not inherently bad. High debt-to-GDP ratios don’t mean anything in and of themselves — indeed, taking on debt to finance crucial investments can (and should!) be prosperity-enhancing and increase a country’s future borrowing capacity.
But today’s global economic system is structured in such a way that debt places a needlessly heavy burden on developing countries, contributing to a “crowding out of crucial development spending,” per findings of the UN Development Programme. Almost 40% of developing countries are setting aside over 10% of their governments’ total revenues to cover interest payments; 62% of developing countries’ external public debt is owed to private creditors (again, at market rates). And these figures don’t include the debt that individual firms take on to finance, say, energy infrastructure. Even that requires the governments of developing countries and development banks to derisk low-return projects across much of the Global South, a process which can plant “budgetary time bombs” on those governments’ balance sheets. Where decarbonization is concerned, private balance sheets are also public liabilities.
Developing country governments and firms also face interest rate and foreign exchange shocks, as higher U.S. interest rates and the concomitant threat of currency depreciation strain their abilities to service external debts. The perverse effect is to prioritize hoarding dollars earned through exports as potential shock absorbers rather than channel them toward domestic investment goals. Loans become a millstone around a government’s policy goals, rather than a measurement of its ambitions.
These liquidity risks loom over climate-vulnerable countries. Take Egypt, where this summer is expected to be brutally hot enough to force its government to import more grain and more gas ― putting increased pressure on the already-volatile Egyptian pound ― and to seriously threaten labor productivity. Egypt’s latest Nationally Determined Contribution, its national climate plan, states that it needs approximately $35 billion per year between now and 2030 to meet its climate targets. Yet the International Monetary Fund expects Egypt to spend $50 billion a year on interest payments in that same period, all while Egypt’s recent bailout agreement with the IMF commits to “put debt firmly on a downward path.”
This debt-climate nexus or climate risk doom loop, exemplifies why developing country negotiators and civil society advocates have hesitated to embrace loan-based climate finance. Debt today need not “crowd out” debt-financed climate spending tomorrow. But that’s exactly what’s happening.
So where does that leave us? For all diplomats’ focus on the NCQG target, how they measure it does matter. As it stands, $100 million of climate finance in the form of market-rate loans to developing countries might seriously threaten their debt sustainability. But developed countries, the multilateral development banks, and the International Monetary Fund can change the nature of debt finance. They can commit to making debt easier to bear by offering lower interest rates and extending loan terms. They can issue more of this concessional debt, of course, displacing the panoply of private lenders that currently play in sovereign bond markets. They can reform their lending standards such that they no longer penalize borrowers for carrying high debt-to-GDP ratios when huge debt-financed investment is precisely what staving off climate change requires. And they can set up dollar swap lines to provide developing countries with the resources to manage interest rate and currency value shocks.
These strategies, if fleshed out in practical detail, can sidestep fickle private investors, contribute to an investment-friendly reform of the global macroeconomic architecture, and kickstart a virtuous cycle of green development around the world. That’s the target. Can we measure up to it?
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Though it might not be as comprehensive or as permanent as renewables advocates have feared, it’s also “just the beginning,” the congressman said.
President-elect Donald Trump’s team is drafting an executive order to “halt offshore wind turbine activities” along the East Coast, working with the office of Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, the congressman said in a press release from his office Monday afternoon.
“This executive order is just the beginning,” Van Drew said in a statement. “We will fight tooth and nail to prevent this offshore wind catastrophe from wreaking havoc on the hardworking people who call our coastal towns home.”
The announcement indicates that some in the anti-wind space are leaving open the possibility that Trump’s much-hyped offshore wind ban may be less sweeping than initially suggested.
In its press release, Van Drew’s office said the executive order would “lay the groundwork for permanent measures against the projects,” leaving the door open to only a temporary pause on permitting new projects. The congressman had recently told New Jersey reporters that he anticipates only a six-month moratorium on offshore wind.
The release also stated that the “proposed order” is “expected to be finalized within the first few months of the administration,” which is a far cry from Trump’s promise to stop projects on Day 1. If enacted, a pause would essentially halt all U.S. offshore wind development because the sought-after stretches of national coastline are entirely within federal waters.
Whether this is just caution from Van Drew’s people or a true moderation of Trump’s ambition we’ll soon find out. Inauguration Day is in less than a week.
Imagine for a moment that you’re an aerial firefighter pilot. You have one of the most dangerous jobs in the country, and now you’ve been called in to fight the devastating fires burning in Los Angeles County’s famously tricky, hilly terrain. You’re working long hours — not as long as your colleagues on the ground due to flight time limitations, but the maximum scheduling allows — not to mention the added external pressures you’re also facing. Even the incoming president recently wondered aloud why the fires aren’t under control yet and insinuated that it’s your and your colleagues’ fault.
You’re on a sortie, getting ready for a particularly white-knuckle drop at a low altitude in poor visibility conditions when an object catches your eye outside the cockpit window: an authorized drone dangerously close to your wing.
Aerial firefighters don’t have to imagine this terrifying scenario; they’ve lived it. Last week, a drone punched a hole in the wing of a Québécois “Super Scooper” plane that had traveled down from Canada to fight the fires, grounding Palisades firefighting operations for an agonizing half-hour. Thirty minutes might not seem like much, but it is precious time lost when the Santa Ana winds have already curtailed aerial operations.
“I am shocked by what happened in Los Angeles with the drone,” Anna Lau, a forestry communication coordinator with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, told me. The Montana DNRC has also had to contend with unauthorized drones grounding its firefighting planes. “We’re following what’s going on very closely, and it’s shocking to us,” Lau went on. Leaving the skies clear so that firefighters can get on with their work “just seems like a no-brainer, especially when people are actively trying to tackle the situation at hand and fighting to save homes, property, and lives.”
Courtesy of U.S. Forest Service
Although the Super Scooper collision was by far the most egregious case, according to authorities there have been at least 40 “incidents involving drones” in the airspace around L.A. since the fires started. (Notably, the Federal Aviation Administration has not granted any waivers for the air space around Palisades, meaning any drone images you see of the region, including on the news, were “probably shot illegally,” Intelligencer reports.) So far, law enforcement has arrested three people connected to drones flying near the L.A. fires, and the FBI is seeking information regarding the Super Scooper collision.
Such a problem is hardly isolated to these fires, though. The Forest Service reports that drones led to the suspension of or interfered with at least 172 fire responses between 2015 and 2020. Some people, including Mike Fraietta, an FAA-certified drone pilot and the founder of the drone-detection company Gargoyle Systems, believe the true number of interferences is much higher — closer to 400.
Law enforcement likes to say that unauthorized drone use falls into three buckets — clueless, criminal, or careless — and Fraietta was inclined to believe that it’s mostly the former in L.A. Hobbyists and other casual drone operators “don’t know the regulations or that this is a danger,” he said. “There’s a lot of ignorance.” To raise awareness, he suggested law enforcement and the media highlight the steep penalties for flying drones in wildfire no-fly zones, which is punishable by up to 12 months in prison or a fine of $75,000.
“What we’re seeing, particularly in California, is TikTok and Instagram influencers trying to get a shot and get likes,” Fraietta conjectured. In the case of the drone that hit the Super Scooper, it “might have been a case of citizen journalism, like, Well, I have the ability to get this shot and share what’s going on.”
Emergency management teams are waking up, too. Many technologies are on the horizon for drone detection, identification, and deflection, including Wi-Fi jamming, which was used to ground climate activists’ drones at Heathrow Airport in 2019. Jamming is less practical in an emergency situation like the one in L.A., though, where lives could be at stake if people can’t communicate.
Still, the fact of the matter is that firefighters waste precious time dealing with drones when there are far more pressing issues that need their attention. Lau, in Montana, described how even just a 12-minute interruption to firefighting efforts can put a community at risk. “The biggest public awareness message we put out is, ‘If you fly, we can’t,’” she said.
Fraietta, though, noted that drone technology could be used positively in the future, including on wildfire detection and monitoring, prescribed burns, and communicating with firefighters or victims on the ground.
“We don’t want to see this turn into the FAA saying, ‘Hey everyone, no more drones in the United States because of this incident,’” Fraietta said. “You don’t shut down I-95 because a few people are running drugs up and down it, right? Drones are going to be super beneficial to the country long term.”
But critically, in the case of a wildfire, such tools belong in the right hands — not the hands of your neighbor who got a DJI Mini 3 for Christmas. “Their one shot isn’t worth it,” Lau said.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that the Québécois firefighting planes are called Super Scoopers, not super soakers.
Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Friday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for some of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Six major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event last week:
Officials are investigating the cause of the fires and have not made any public statements yet. Early eyewitness accounts suggest that the Eaton Fire may have started at the base of a transmission tower owned by Southern California Edison. So far, the company has maintained that an analysis of its equipment showed “no interruptions or electrical or operational anomalies until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire.” A Washington Post investigation found that the Palisades Fire could have risen from the remnants of a fire that burned on New Year’s Eve and reignited.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At more than 40,000 acres burned total, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 9,000 structures damaged as of Friday morning, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 5,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between wet and dry years over the past eight decades.
But climate change is expected to make dry years drier and wet years wetter, creating a “hydroclimate whiplash,” as Daniel Swain, a pre-eminent expert on climate change and weather in California puts it. In a thread on Bluesky, Swain wrote that “in 2024, Southern California experienced an exceptional episode of wet-to-dry hydroclimate whiplash.” Last year’s rainy winter fostered abundant plant growth, and the proceeding dryness primed the vegetation for fire.
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Editor’s note: This story was last update on Monday, January 13, at 10:00 a.m. ET.