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On EV sales, a clean energy lobbying blitz, and fusion
Current conditions: Firefighters in South Korea are struggling to contain wildfires that have charred more than 36,000 acres • Reports of fire ant stings in Australia have exploded in recent weeks after torrential rain from Cyclone Alfred forced the invasive pests above ground • Temperatures in Phoenix, Arizona, reached 96 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday, breaking a daily heat record in place since 1990. Today is expected to be even hotter.
China’s BYD reported annual sales over $100 billion for the first time, dealing yet another blow to its chief U.S. rival, Tesla. The company’s shares have risen by 91% over the past 12 months. Tesla, by contrast, has yet to hit $100 billion in annual revenue, and its shares have dropped about 30% since the start of 2025, wiping out its post-election bump.
Tesla sales have been falling in some key markets in response to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration and his meddling in European politics. In a poll provided to Heatmap last month, nearly half of likely U.S. voters said that Musk’s behavior had made them less likely to buy or lease a Tesla. As Bloomberg noted, BYD doesn’t sell in the U.S. due to tariffs on Chinese cars, “but it’s made big inroads into markets in Europe, places in Asia like Singapore and Thailand, as well as Australia.” On Sunday it rolled out its Qin L EV, which is a rival to Tesla’s Model 3 electric sedan, at half the price.
BYD
More than 100 clean energy companies, trade associations, and other industry stakeholders are descending on Capitol Hill this week to amplify an ongoing lobbying push to preserve clean energy tax credits in the upcoming budget reconciliation bill, Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reports. Their mission? Convince Republicans on the House Ways and Means committee that the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act are key to executing President Trump’s energy agenda.
The Ways and Means Committee oversees tax writing, meaning that it will be responsible for proposing which of Trump’s tax cuts to include in the upcoming budget reconciliation bill, how to pay for them, and which of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits should stay or go. Although the Senate will also have a say, the signal in Washington right now is that whatever version of the bill the House passes is going to be pretty close to the final bill. “That’s why it’s so important for any Republican members who see the benefit of what’s happening in their communities and how their constituents are saving money on energy to be talking to their colleagues right now in Ways and Means,” said Andrew Reagan, the executive director of Clean Energy for America. Pontecorvo spoke with Reagan about this week’s lobbying push. Read their full conversation here.
Hyundai Motor Group announced on Monday it plans to build a $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana, part of a larger $21 billion investment in the South Korean automaker’s U.S.-based manufacturing operations. The company’s executives held a joint press conference at the White House to unveil the plans alongside President Trump and Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry. The plant will produce 2.7 million tons of steel a year to be used to make Hyundai vehicles (and cars for its sister brands Kia and Genesis) at Hyundai plants in Alabama and Georgia. Other manufacturers may also use the steel.
Trump said the announcement was proof that his tariff threats work, but it’s also considered a boost for electric vehicles. The $21 billion investment includes money for projects to build more hybrids and EVs, EV batteries, and charging infrastructure in the U.S. Last year, Hyundai was America’s second best-selling EV maker. Tomorrow it will celebrate the recent opening of its new EV and battery plant in Georgia.
The U.S. Supreme Court said on Monday it will not hear an appeal in a landmark youth-led climate case, putting an end to the 10-year legal battle. In Juliana v. United States, 21 young people sued the federal government, arguing it violated their constitutional rights by rolling out policies supporting fossil fuel usage. A lower court dismissed the suit in 2020, saying that the court system was not the right place to argue about climate change and that “the plaintiffs’ impressive case for redress must be presented to the political branches of government.” This case has served as a framework for other environmental lawsuits in recent years, some of them successful. A plaintiff in one of those cases saidJuliana had “left an indelible mark on the landscape of climate litigation.”
U.S.-based fusion power company Commonwealth Fusion Systems announced today it has started building its SPARC tokamak in Devens, Massachusetts. CFS says that by 2027, its SPARC tokamak will be “the world’s first commercially relevant fusion energy machine to produce more energy from fusion than it needs to power the process.” This month the company installed the tokamak’s cryostat base, which will help to keep the system’s magnets cool. With assembly of SPARC underway, “we can now see the beginnings of the actual machine we’ll use to prove the commercial viability of our technology,” the company said in a press release.
Researchers in Europe have developed a highly-efficient transparent solar cell that could pave the way for solar windows.
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On deadly blazes, China’s carbon market, and the goal of tripling renewables
Current conditions: Phoenix saw record high temperatures on Tuesday for the second day in a row • A freak hail storm turned a city in the south of Spain into a winter wonderland • Widespread bleaching has been recorded at Australia’s two World Heritage-listed coral reefs after an intense marine heatwave.
At least 24 people have been killed and more than 27,000 evacuated in South Korea as the country faces some of its worst wildfires in history. Some 200 buildings have been damaged, including two ancient Buddhist temples. The blazes broke out on Friday in the country’s southeast and have spread rapidly in the days since, fueled by high winds and dry weather. Lee Byung-doo, a forest disaster expert at the National Institute of Forest Science, toldReuters that climate change was driving more frequent wildfires across the globe. “We have to admit large-scale wildfires are going to increase and for that we need more resources and trained manpower,” he said. Indeed, a rapid analysis from European researchers concluded that recent wildfires in Japan and South Korea “have been fueled by meteorological conditions likely strengthened by human-driven climate change.” More than 10,000 firefighters and at least 87 helicopters have been deployed to bring the fires under control. The largest is about 70% contained.
China plans to add about 1,500 steel, aluminum, and cement companies to its carbon market this year, according to the environment ministry. As of now, only power companies are included in the system, which was launched in 2021 and requires firms to buy carbon credits to cover their emissions. But the expansion has been in the works for a while, and will cover about 60% of China’s total emissions. The country will eventually rope in other industries such as building materials, chemicals, and aviation to account for about 75% of total emissions. The newly added industries will have softer emissions rules to begin with, with caps only coming into place in 2027. This delay will “ease the financial burden on the new entrants,” Bloombergnoted.
Rivian officially spun off a new micromobility company today aimed at helping people switch to small electric vehicles (think bikes, scooters, or golf carts) for short daily journeys. Rivian said the new company, called Also, has raised a $105 million Series B funding round. Also’s CEO Chris Yu told Heatmap’s Katie Brigham that owning a car and owning a smaller EV are not mutually exclusive. “If I’m taking my family to Yosemite on the weekend, I want to use my Rivian R1S, but for my daily school runs, probably not,” Yu said. Also’s flagship product is set to launch in the U.S. and Europe early next year, and will be followed by consumer and commercial products for the Asian and South American markets, though the company hasn’t yet said what these products will be.
A new report on 2024 renewable power trends has both good news and bad news: While the world added more renewables last year than ever before, we’re still not on track to triple capacity by 2030. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, 585 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity was installed in 2024, “the largest increase in renewable energy capacity to date.” Renewables accounted for about 93% of all global power additions, with solar alone making up three-quarters of the installations. But “current growth rates indicate the world is not on track to triple installed renewable power capacity to 11 TW by 2030,” said IRENA’s international director general, Francesco La Camera. “With just 6 years remaining to meet the goal adopted at COP28 to triple installed renewable power capacity by 2030, the world now needs additions in excess of 1,120 GW each year for the rest of this decade to keep the world on a 1.5 degrees Celsius pathway.”
In case you missed it: The Federal Emergency Management Agency has continued to withhold millions of dollars from states for disaster recovery, relief, and preparedness despite a district court’s order from March 6 calling on the administration to release the funds. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported, among the more than 200 FEMA grants to states that remain frozen are a case management program for survivors of the 2023 Maui wildfires, emergency readiness projects in Oregon, and flood hazard mitigation in Colorado, according to a motion filed on Monday in the lawsuit State of New York v. Trump. The motion was filed the day after Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said her department would move to “eliminate” FEMA during a cabinet meeting.
States say the lack of access to funding is going to start disrupting crucial programs. “If Hawaii doesn’t start receiving reimbursements for its federally-funded case management program by March 31, for example, it will be forced to immediately discontinue its work helping more than 4,000 wildfire survivors create tailored disaster recovery plans and navigate recovery resources,” Pontecorvo wrote.
Nissan confirmed that its Leaf EV is making a comeback, but this time it will be an SUV. The car will be available in the U.S. sometime in the next year. No word yet on pricing. The company showed off the vehicle for the first time today:
Nissan
The electric vehicle company Rivian is known for products that are, well, large: pickup trucks, SUVs, and delivery vans. But for the past three years, it has been stealthily designing the technology platform for a slew of much smaller, yet-to-be-revealed electric vehicles — think bikes, scooters, and golf carts. Today, Rivian officially spun off that project into its own company, called Also, while … also … announcing that the new venture had raised a $105 million Series B funding round.
The name Also, the company’s CEO Chris Yu told me, points to the idea that owning a car and owning a smaller EV are not mutually exclusive — rather, it’s about finding the right tool for the job. “If I’m taking my family to Yosemite on the weekend, I want to use my Rivian R1S, but for my daily school runs, probably not. That’s not the most efficient or enjoyable way to do it,” Yu told me. In the U.S. about 80% of all car trips are 15 miles or less, and over 50% of are less than six miles. The goal of Also, Yu said, is for smaller EV’s — or “micromobility solutions” — to replace cars for those shorter daily excursions.
Prior to his new role, Yu worked as vice president on Rivian’s “Future Programs” team, working to incubate Also alongside Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe, who will now serve as the new company’s board chair while continuing to lead Rivian. The incumbent EV-automaker participated in Also’s Series B alongside the lead investor, venture capital firm Eclipse, and will maintain a minority ownership stake in it.
Also’s flagship product is set to launch in the U.S. and Europe early next year, and will be followed by consumer and commercial products for the Asian and South American markets, though the company hasn’t yet said what these products will be. In the U.S., electric scooters and e-bikes have taken off in cities, while in some suburban areas, beach towns and retirement communities, golf carts are ubiquitous. Across much of South Asia, Africa, and Latin America, three-wheelers such as rickshaws and mototaxis are everywhere, and are increasingly being electrified.
But there’s still a long way to go. “The rate of electrification for small vehicles across the world is far, far lower than cars, like low single digit percent,” Yu told me. He said that what will set Also apart from existing offerings — besides electrification, of course — is the scale the company aims to operate at and its intuitive technology platform.
Also is developing everything in-house, from the motors to the software, which Yu said will lead to the type of seamless, personalized user experiences that customers have come to expect from newer EVs such as Rivians or Teslas. Think “walking up to your vehicle and having it automatically know that it’s you and unlocking,” Yu told me, or “adjusting to your profiles, your media plays, what you were last playing, etc.” Making something like an e-bike or electric golf cart “smarter,” Yu explained, could also help with issues such as security — potentially making Also’s TBD products less vulnerable to theft — or safety, such as gauging if someone is riding at a dangerous speed for the area or in an inappropriate zone.
Even with this type of advanced technology integration, Yu claimed that the company’s products will be cost competitive with what’s on the market today due to the scale that Also aims to achieve. Yu’s hope is that taking advantage of Rivian’s existing technologies and retail footprint will help.
Whatever form factor Also’s small EVs take, Yu told me they will embody Rivian’s adventurous spirit, “weaving in some of what people aspire to do and look forward to doing, whether it’s on a weekend or summer vacations,” he explained. So will this look like an off-roading golf cart? A smarter electric mountain bike? A scooter that also rips on the backroads? We’ll have to wait until next year to see.
Rob and Jesse talk with a former Meta energy executive, Near Horizon Group’s Peter Freed.
If you care about decarbonizing the power grid anytime soon, you have to care about data centers. The AI boom and the ongoing growth of the internet have driven a big new cycle of data center construction in the United States, with tech companies trying to buy electricity on the scale of large cities’ energy demands.
Peter Freed has seen this up close. As Meta’s former director of energy strategy, he worked on clean energy procurement and data center development from 2014 to 2024. He is now a founding partner at the Near Horizon Group, where he advises investors and companies on emerging topics in data centers and advanced clean energy.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Peter about whether AI and new data centers are going to blow up the grid and break decarbonization. What are the real-world constraints on developing a data center in 2025? Are tech companies beginning to run out of natural gas to burn? What do their investments in clean energy mean? And could the rise of AI prompt an accidental return to coal? Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Even now, most of the data centers getting built are not AI data centers, right? The AI signal has yet to fully set in. Is that right?
Peter Freed: That’s right. What I would say is, if you look back at what happened, what got announced in 2024, most of the data centers that broke ground and were announced in 2024 were part of a demand plan that was done in 2023, when we did not have the AI demand ratchet, as I call it, on the system.
Now, what people then did is they probably just pulled stuff in. So you know, maybe you were going to do four data centers in 2024 and a few more in 2025. And instead they just, they yanked it forward. So it is also true that we’re definitely seeing the beginnings of this. But this year, 2025, will be a real bellwether year in terms of what the likely overall picture looks like. And one of the proxies that you can use for that is the capex forecast of the hyperscalers. So Meta’s capex forecast in 2024 was $38 billion; 2025, their capex forecast is $65 billion. So that’s a huge jump.
And by the way, Meta in particular doesn’t have a cloud business, so they’re not dependent on the signals coming in from other people. This is just for their own. So in some ways, it’s a clearer picture than we get from some of the other companies. Both Microsoft and Google are up at $80 billion. So to me this says, okay, 2025 is kind of going to show us where this trajectory is likely to go. And it’s pretty high.
I see the same reports that you all see. We’re probably somewhere between 30 [gigawatts] and 100 gigawatts of incremental data center-related load by 2030. I’d take the over at 50 gigawatts. It might be a little bit less, it might be more — 100 [gigawatts], I don’t know. So that’s a big signal.
Jesse Jenkins: For context, 50 gigawatts is half of the U.S. nuclear power fleet.
Freed: That’s correct. Yeah.
Jenkins: Maybe like 10% of U.S. electricity.
Freed: Yeah. Yeah. And so it lines up pretty well with what we were just talking about in terms of those forecasts. At the same time, if you look at all of the load growth projections that utilities with major data center demand have in their jurisdictions, you also get a number which is way larger than 50 gigawatts.
What is the reason for this gratuitous speculative behavior, the likes of which the industry has never seen? And we can talk as much or as little about that as you want, but it is simultaneously true that I think this is going to be a really large demand driver and that we have bubble-like characteristics in terms of the amount of stuff that people are trying to get done.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.