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On critical minerals, climate voters, and EV battery recycling
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Trami is taking aim at the Philippines • Heavy downpours triggered severe flooding in South Africa’s Eastern Cape • The southern Alaskan mainland is bracing for a major storm system that is expected to bring high winds and flooding.
There could be between 5 million and 19 million tons of lithium underground in southwest Arkansas, according to a new study from the United States Geological Survey. Researchers said that even the low-end of this estimate “would meet projected 2030 world demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over.” Lithium, of course, is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and demand is expected to grow in coming years. Most lithium is produced in Australia and South America, and then processed in China. “The potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing, and supply-chain resilience,” said USGS director David Applegate.
The Smackover Formation in Arkansas could hold vast lithium reserves.USGS
The Supreme Court yesterday agreed to take on a handful of cases that could determine which federal courts can hear challenges to Environmental Protection Agency rules. The move “could undercut the nation’s top environmental regulator by opening the door to industry groups and Republican-led states seeking to challenge certain EPA rules in more favorable courts,” explainedE&E News. The Clean Air Act stipulates that legal challenges to national EPA rules must go through the D.C. Court of Appeals, which leans liberal. But if lawsuits go through regional courts, they may have more favorable outcomes for groups challenging things like pollution laws. The Supreme Court decision is expected by next summer.
Nearly 50,000 first-time climate voters have already cast ballots in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to the nonpartisan nonprofit Environmental Voter Project. By examining early voting data, the group determined that climate voters are turning out at higher rates than the general electorate in key swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. The one exception EVP found is Georgia, where climate voters are underperforming in early voting. “Early voting is not predictive of overall turnout, and so I never get too excited or too despondent from the data,” EVP founder and executive director Nathaniel Stinnett told Heatmap. “But what we can see is that in 18 of our 19 states, people who list climate as their number-one priority are early voting at a higher rate than the overall electorate, so I feel really good about that.”
EVP
Sarah Kapnick, previously the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s chief scientist, is rejoining the JPMorgan Chase as global head of climate advisory, where she will “advise its corporate and investment banking clients on how to navigate the impacts of climate change,” Bloombergreported. Kapnick has worked for JPMorgan Chase before as a senior climate scientist and sustainability strategist for the company’s asset and wealth management business.
Mercedes-Benz yesterday announced the opening of Europe’s first battery recycling plant. The facility, located in Kuppenheim, southern Germany, uses an “integrated mechanical-hydrometallurgical process” that the automaker says can recover 96% of used battery materials, such as critical minerals, for recycling into new EV batteries. With this development, Mercedes-Benz is “the first car manufacturer worldwide to close the battery recycling loop with its own in-house facility.”
Alcon Entertainment, the production company behind Blade Runner 2049, is suing Tesla CEO Elon Musk for using AI to create images that look similar to scenes from the film to promote the Cybercab.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.