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Inside episode one of Shift Key, a new climate podcast from Heatmap News.
Late last month, Joe Biden made what has been hailed as one of the biggest climate policy decisions of the past year.
He announced that the federal government would temporarily stop approving new export terminals for liquified natural gas. The move was celebrated as a victory by climate activists and lamented by fossil-fuel companies; Donald Trump promised that, if elected, he will reverse the move.
But what will the pause really mean for the climate? Will it stop exports from rising in the near-term, and can we say with any certainty whether it will make carbon emissions go up or down? How should we even think about this decision?
In this inaugural episode of Shift Key, Heatmap’s new podcast, my co-host Jesse Jenkins, an energy systems expert and professor at Princeton University, and I unpack the president’s decision and try to figure out what — if anything — it means for the climate.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here’s an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Since this news came out, I think there's been a lot of discussion online about whether this is necessarily the optimal choice. Could we be using that gas to do something else? How should we be managing it? And I just want to make a point before we go on that this is literally what climate policy means.
There’s a sense I see from some places, which is like, well, “Is cutting off fossil fuel exports at this very arbitrary place, the optimal policy?” And I just want to make the point that like, number one, we are not on an optimal policy pathway at all. And in the absence of a policy that I think both you and I think is very unlikely to pass, which is a globally normalized carbon price that's imposed evenly in all jurisdictions and is priced at a level that we can attain the 1.5C or 1.6C, whatever end temperature goal we want to achieve –
Jesse Jenkins: Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and say that's unlikely.
Meyer: Yes, in the absence of a global carbon price that is uniformly enforced across all jurisdictions, we are going to make suboptimal decisions. And not only are we going to make suboptimal decisions, but we are going to stop investing in fossil fuels below what would be economically optimal if climate change didn't exist. That's literally what climate change means.
And at the same time, we are going to invest above what would be economically optimal in all of these fossil fuels if you take climate change into account, because that is the signal failure of global climate policy, is that we keep plowing money into fossil fuels and under-investing in alternatives and in scaling up alternatives. We’ve underinvested in those things for at least 20 years. That’s a different show about whether we’re still doing it or how much we’re still doing it.
I just want to get into this whole discussion by saying when we talk about whether we're fiddling knobs in the right way, or enough this way, or enough that way, or whether we're taking all these things into account, we are never going to do this perfectly. And the whole point of climate change is at some point you just have to stop investing in the fossil fuel system.
Jenkins: Yeah, economists call this the second best policy or third best policy. I just call it “the real world.” We’re all just muddling through all the time and how we're going to make progress or not is whether we muddled through better or worse.
So I agree, it's theoretically helpful to think about what an economically ideal rationalized policy would be. But we're so far from that world that I think the question is, “is this better than the alternative decision you could make about this particular thing right here?”
And hopefully, that's the view that the Department of Energy is taking when they think about the public interest here. It's not like, well, could we have had some more ideal climate policy that meant we were doing something else over in this other part of the economy instead of doing this?
That's an interesting conversation to have on Twitter, but maybe not the core of the question that the DOE and the Biden administration are grappling with right here.
The full transcript is available here.
This episode of Shift Key was initially sponsored by …
KORE POWER: Headquartered in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho with clients on every continent, KORE Power provides functional solutions that push the front line of the transition to clean energy and form the backbone of the decarbonized future worldwide. As a fully integrated provider of battery cells and clean energy technology and solutions, KORE Power drives the energy transition through direct access to superior tech, clean energy manufacturing, and unmatched support for clean energy jobs and resilient, sustainable communities worldwide. KORE Power’s manufacturing capabilities and robust portfolio of products provide the commercial, industrial, utility and defense markets with next-generation battery cells, advanced energy storage systems that scale to grid+, intuitive asset management, and EV power and charging infrastructure support. KORE Power - the future of clean energy is here.
Learn more at Korepower.com
ADVANCED ENERGY UNITED: Advanced Energy United educates, engages, and advocates for policies that allow our member companies to compete to power our economy with 100% clean energy. We work with decision makers at every level of government as well as regulators of energy markets to achieve this goal. The businesses we represent are lowering consumer costs, creating thousands of new jobs every year, and providing the full range of clean, efficient, and reliable energy and transportation solutions. The U.S. market for advanced energy products and services reached nearly $375 billion in 2022. Together, we are united in our mission to accelerate the transition to 100% clean energy in the United States.
Learn more at info.advancedenergyunited.org/heatmap
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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Conservationists in Wyoming zero in on a vulnerability anti-wind activists are targeting elsewhere: the administration’s species protection efforts.
Wildlife conservationists in Wyoming are asking the Trump administration to block wind projects in their state in the name of protecting eagles from turbine blades.
The Albany County Conservancy, a Wyoming wildlife advocacy group, sent letters on February 11 and 18 to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and Attorney General Pam Bondi. In the letters, which I obtained, the group asked the Trump officials to do everything in their power to halt Repsol’s Rail Tie and BluEarth’s Two Rivers wind projects, including suspending Two Rivers’ right-of-way from the Bureau of Land Management and even the interconnection grant for Rail Tie’s transmission line.
These letters show for the first time that onshore wind projects are dealing with the same Trump-centric back-channelling influence campaigns we reported advocates and attorneys are waging in the offshore wind permitting space. The letters make some big requests. But the Conservancy is playing the chess game well, zeroing in on a vulnerability other wind opponents are also targeting: the administration’s species protection efforts.
Wyoming is crucial to the survival of golden eagles, a raptor bird species protected under multiple federal laws, including a 1940 conservation statute for golden as well as bald eagles. The state is home to what conservationists say is one of the largest breeding populations for golden eagles. But the species is struggling, with most recorded golden eagle deaths caused by humans. Some of these deaths have been tied directly to wind turbines.
The Rail Tie and Two Rivers projects concern Mike Lockhart, an ex-biologist for the Fish and Wildlife Service with a specialty in eagle conservation. For years Lockhart, who lives in the area and is a plaintiff in the lawsuit, has studied how the wind industry has impacted golden eagles and believes the government severely undercounts how many birds are being hurt by turbine blades.
In order to build in areas with golden eagles, developers need so-called “incidental take” authorizations, e.g. approvals to disturb or accidentally harm the species throughout the course of construction or operation of a wind project. He told me that data he and the Conservancy submitted to regulators shows that golden eagles will die if these wind farms turn on. “I’m a big renewable energy advocate,” he said. “I’m also horrified by what I’m seeing in Wyoming. We really didn’t understand the full scope of what these three-bladed wind turbines mean.”
It’s worth noting that renewable energy industry groups deny wind energy is playing a role in the size of the golden eagle population.
The Interior Department, which oversees the Bureau of Land Management and the incidental take process, declined to comment on the requests. So did BluEarth. Repsol said it was unable to provide a comment by press time.
On his first day in office, President Trump issued an executive order that halted new federal approvals for U.S. wind projects, pending a comprehensive review of the government’s past treatment of the wind industry, including its efforts to protect birds from turbines. Trump’s order claimed there were “various alleged legal deficiencies underlying the federal government’s leasing and permitting of onshore and offshore wind projects, the consequences of which may lead to grave harm – including negative impacts on navigational safety interests, transportation interests, national security interests, commercial interests, and marine mammals.” It also claimed there were “potential inadequacies in various environmental reviews” for wind projects. And indeed, a 2023 Associated Press investigation found federal enforcement in eagle protection laws declined under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations, even as wind energy blossomed in the species’ habitat.
As we reported last week, opponents of offshore wind have joined hands with well-connected figures in the conservative legal space to lobby Trump’s team to revoke incidental take authorizations previously issued to offshore wind projects. Doing so would rattle all offshore wind development as well as raise concerns about scientific independence at the issuing agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
As with offshore wind and whales, Wyoming and its eagles offer Trump a situation he wants. In this case, it’s an opportunity to look tough on crime while attacking wind. A Trumpian disruption of the state’s wind sector would also create high profile controversy around what has otherwise been a success story for wind energy growth in a GOP stronghold state.
The Conservancy is represented by William Eubanks, a veteran public interest environmental lawyer who sent the letters on the group’s behalf. Prior to sending the letter, they were already in litigation over Rail Tie’s take approvals and the government permits that followed, providing a potential avenue for regulatory and permitting changes through legal settlement. The Conservancy also warned the Trump team that another lawsuit over Two Rivers could soon be in the offing. One letter stated that officials’ time “would be better spent reevaluating” the project to “ensure compliance with federal law (and President Trump’s Executive Order on wind projects), rather than in federal court.”
Eubanks — who has dedicated his life to fighting various potential industrial impacts to the environment, including fossil fuel pollution — told me that cases against renewable projects are a “really small part” of his firm’s “overall docket.” Eubanks told me he believes climate change must be addressed quickly. “It’s a serious issue, it is here, it is looming, and we need to do something about it,” he said. And he thinks that the nation needs to construct more renewable energy.
Yet Eubanks also says these two wind projects are a perfect example of a “rush through these processes” to get “the green light as soon as possible.” In his view, it’s the same way he’s treated oil and gas projects when fossil-friendly presidents put their own thumbs on the scale.
“We’re not just looking at this as, it’s a solar project or a wind project that gets some sort of ‘green pass,’” Eubanks added. “There’s a difference of opinion in the conservation community … a black or white thinking approach of, if something is a renewable energy project — no matter how poorly sited it is, no matter who poorly analyzed if at all it has been under environmental law — there are some conservation groups who, for better or worse, will just say, we’re not going to get involved in commenting on that or going the extra step of challenging it in court because we have to address the issue of our time: climate change.”
Lockhart told me he knows that the Trump administration is undercutting climate action with its anti-wind position. And he doesn’t like that. “I’m a supporter of green energy and want to do everything possible to reverse climate change,” he told me.
But he sees a silver lining in Trump potentially intervening. “I’m hoping it makes agencies go back and focus on what’s really going on, all the cumulative impacts and everything else.”
And more of the week’s top conflicts around renewable energy.
Here’s what else I’m watching …
In Massachusetts, anti-wind activist Mary Chalke is running for a seat on the select board for the town of Nantucket. She’s well known for wearing a whale costume to protests.
In North Carolina, local pro-wind advocates hope Duke Energy’s land-based wind projects will be safe from the Trump administration.
In Washington State, Whitman County has imposed a wind moratorium.
In Virginia, Apex Clean Energy’s Rocky Forge solar project has survived a legal challenge.
And more of the week’s top policy news.
1. New NEPA world – The Trump White House overnight effectively rescinded all implementing rules for the National Environmental Policy Act, a key statute long relied on by regulators for permitting large energy and infrastructure projects.
2. Our hydrogen hero – Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito this week came out against any freeze for a hydrogen hub with projects in her state, indicating that any clampdown on H2 projects from the federal level may get Republican pushback.
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