Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Podcast

The U.S. Auto Industry Wasn’t Built for Tariffs

Rob and Jesse talk with former Ford economist Ellen Hughes-Cromwick.

The Ambassador Bridge.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Over the past 30 years, the U.S. automaking industry has transformed how it builds cars and trucks, constructing a continent-sized network of factories, machine shops, and warehouses that some call “Factory North America.” President Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will disrupt and transform those supply chains. What will that mean for the automaking industry and the transition to EVs?

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick is the former chief economist at Ford Motor Company, where she worked from 1996 to 2014, as well as the former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce. She is now a senior visiting fellow at Third Way and a senior advisor at MacroPolicy Perspective LLC.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse chat with Ellen about how automakers build cars today, why this system isn’t built for trade barriers, and whether Trump’s tariffs could counterintuitively help electric vehicles. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Jesse Jenkins: I hear often that we’re also sending parts back and forth as well — that particularly near the border with Canada, we have manufacturing parts suppliers on both sides of the border. So it’s not just the final car, it’s also pieces of the car going back and forth. How does stuff move around in this sort of complicated trade network between, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico?

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick: There is a lot of back and forth, and as you mentioned, a lot of the automotive analysts track the travel of not just the vehicles, but the parts. And the latest estimates show that in some cases, we’re going back and forth across the Ambassador Bridge here in Detroit, you know, six, eight times.

So when you say all of a sudden, as of tomorrow, I’m going to put a 25% tariff on that — I mean, that basically shutters businesses. You can’t absorb a 25% hit, especially if it’s a part or an assembled vehicle. Part of that 25% you could probably absorb, but for the thin margins that parts suppliers work for day in and day out, I mean, there’s just no way. You’re better off shuttering your business. I hate to say that, but you know, you just can’t make the equation work, with a 25% hit.

Jenkins: So this is hypothetical structure, I don’t know if this is exactly right, but so you might have engine parts manufactured in Michigan being sent to Windsor, Ontario to assemble an internal combustion engine. And then it goes back to a plant somewhere else in the U.S. to be assembled into a vehicle. Maybe you get the glass from somewhere for the windows, you know, these are all moving back and forth on a regular basis after so many years of free trade agreements between the two countries, or the three.

Hughes-Cromwick: That’s right. That’s right. And again, coming back to Michigan, because we’re so close to the suppliers in Canada, and we have the lion’s share of automotive suppliers, especially small and mid-size suppliers — so the tier two, tier three. They’re supplying to a tier one big supplier like Magna or Borg.

So you’ve got a lot of these tier two, tier three suppliers in Michigan. Well, why? Because they’re getting a part from a Canadian supplier, putting it into theirs. And maybe that’s a component that goes into an internal combustion engine that’s being produced.

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Download Heatmap Labs and Hydrostor’s free report to discover the crucial role of long duration energy storage in ensuring a reliable, clean future and stable grid. Learn more about Hydrostor here.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Green

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Politics

Exclusive: Local Opposition to Data Centers Explodes in 2026

The number of data centers canceled after pushback set a record in the first quarter of the year, new data from Heatmap Pro shows.

Peeling off a data center.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Data centers are getting larger and larger. But even so, few are as large as the Sentinel Grove Technology Park, a proposed data center near Port St. Lucie, Florida.

The proposed facility — which became known as Project Jarvis — was set to be built on old agricultural land. It would use up to 1 gigawatt of electricity, enough to power a mid-size city, and bring in up to $13.5 billion in investment to the county.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
AM Briefing

SEC Won’t Let Me See

On wave energy, microplastics, and Emirati sun

The SEC building.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The East Coast’s Acela corridor is cooling down this week, with temperatures dropping from 85 degrees Fahrenheit in Philadelphia yesterday to the 60s for the rest of the week • Cape Agulhas is under one of South Africa’s Orange Level 6 warnings for damaging winds and dangerous waves • Floods and landslides in Brazil’s northern state of Pernambuco have left six dead and thousands displaced.


THE TOP FIVE

1. SEC moves to scrap climate rules — and quarterly reporting

The Securities and Exchange Commission has advanced a measure to formally end Biden-era climate disclosure rules for publicly-traded companies. The regulator sent the proposal to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget for review on May 4, according to a post on a government website first spotted by Bloomberg. The Wall Street watchdog’s 2024 disclosure rule mandated that publicly traded companies report on the material risks climate change poses to their business models, including the financial impact of extreme weather. Some large companies would have been required to disclose Scope 1 emissions, which are produced by the firm’s own operations, and Scope 2 emissions, which are produced by companies with which the firm does off-site business such as electricity. The rule had already been watered down before its finalization to remove Scope 3 emissions, which come from suppliers up and down the value chain and from customers who use a product such as oil.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
Podcast

Why John Arnold Is ‘Very Optimistic’ Permitting Reform Will Pass This Year

Rob talks with the billionaire investor and philanthropist about how energy, Chinese EVs, and why he’s “very optimistic” that Congress will pass permitting reform this year.

John Arnold.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

If you work around climate or clean energy, you probably know about John Arnold. Although he began his career as a natural gas trader, Arnold has since become one of the country’s most important clean energy investors. He’s the chairman of Grid United, a transmission development firm undertaking some of the country’s most ambitious power line projects, and he is an investor in the advanced geothermal startup Fervo. He and his wife Laura run the philanthropic organization Arnold Ventures.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks with Arnold about the current energy chaos and what might come next. They discuss Arnold’s first trip to China, whether Congress might pass permitting reform this year, and what clean energy companies should learn from the fossil fuel industry.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow