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The fight to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits begins in earnest this week.
More than 100 clean energy companies, trade associations, and other industry stakeholders are descending on Capitol Hill this week to amplify an ongoing lobbying push to preserve clean energy tax credits in the upcoming budget reconciliation bill. Groups such as Clean Energy for America, the Solar Energy Industries Association, and the Carbon Capture Coalition will be making their case alongside battery storage companies like Enphase, investors from CleanCapital, utility-scale wind and solar developers, small residential solar installers, and customers that have benefited, including school superintendents.
Their mission? Convince Republicans on the House Ways and Means committee that the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act are key to executing President Trump’s energy agenda.
The Ways and Means Committee oversees tax writing, meaning that it will be responsible for proposing which of Trump’s tax cuts to include in the upcoming budget reconciliation bill, how to pay for them, and which of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits should stay or go. “That is where these decisions are being talked about behind closed doors,” Andrew Reagan, the president of Clean Energy for America, told me.
Although the Senate will also have a say, Reagan said that the signal in Washington right now is that whatever version of the bill the House passes is going to be pretty close to the final bill. “That’s why it’s so important for any Republican members who see the benefit of what’s happening in their communities and how their constituents are saving money on energy to be talking to their colleagues right now in Ways and Means.”
I talked to Reagan more about what the lobbying push this week will look like. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
First off, why is this push happening now? What’s going on this week?
Folks both in clean energy businesses and in trade associations have been meeting with Hill offices on an almost daily basis throughout this year to highlight the negative impacts that would happen if these priority energy tax credits are not preserved. What’s unique here is Congress is back in session, and we have the process moving in Ways and Means. And as Speaker Johnson and others have signaled, the House version is what they expect will be the final version of a reconciliation bill. So the time to preserve these energy tax credits is now.
Which tax credits are your priority? Is it a push for everything, or is it a push for specific policies?
We want to be a voice for both the clean energy workforce and companies in this industry. The unifying message is we need policy stability, and if we’re going to achieve the energy goals that the Trump administration has laid out, we can’t do that by repealing or curtailing many of the critical energy credits. There is a lot of importance on both 45X, clean manufacturing, and 48E and 45Y, the tech neutral [clean electricity production and investment] credits because that has such a broad effect across the entire industry, across the entire economy. They are going to be pivotal to continuing to lower energy costs and create jobs.
I don’t want to give short shrift to a lot of the others that are creating innovation. I’m not sure if you saw the Jesse Jenkins study recently, but things like 30D, the consumer EV credit — he projected that has a big impact on 45X. So I think it’s also important to educate folks that there is a real risk. Even if you keep a credit in place, if you take away too much of the underlying reinforcement in related credits, you can see these really negative effects where it might be the same as effectively killing or curtailing some of those credits.
Other than making the jobs argument and the consumer savings argument, what is your message for Republicans?
One of the really important but maybe underappreciated points is that if you take away many of these credits, you will see electricity prices across the board, both for consumers and for industry, rise. There’s a study that [the Clean Energy Buyers Association] put out that gave a state by state projection of how much energy costs would rise just by next year, just if the 48E and 45Y production and investment credits were taken out. In some cases, in some states, that’s an increase of anywhere from up to 6% or 10% on top of existing inflation. So I think when we’re talking to Republican offices and Democratic offices, the case that we’re making is, “You want to lower costs for consumers? The existing tax credits that are helping more energy be produced are pivotal to doing that.”
And then, to come back to the parts of President Trump’s energy agenda that I think we all can get behind, things like bringing back manufacturing to the United States — manufacturing uses an immense amount of energy, so rising electricity prices for commercial applications make it harder to manufacture. As well as the president’s promise to lower energy bills by half in 12 to 18 months — there’s no way to achieve that goal if you curtail or drastically cut the energy tax credit.
So I think it’s important to really link for offices, if you are a Republican who wants to see President Trump’s energy agenda succeed, all of those things are reliant upon the existing energy credits. This is not a choice of, do they need to go against the president? This is something where they can still help their consumers, advance the parts of the president’s agenda that are related to energy, and they don’t have to make that choice.
Are you pushing for blanket protection for some of these tax credits? Or are you talking through potential compromises that legislators can make while still preserving the biggest benefits?
Clean Energy for America and the companies we work with, we’ve really just focused on education and the broader picture. I’ve been astounded by how many offices didn’t even know about some of the big projects in their district that were benefiting from tax credits. So I think there’s a lot more education needed about some of the very basics at this point. There are others with much more policy expertise equipped to get into some of those conversations. But again, at Clean Energy for America, our focus has been, here are all the benefits being created in your district, in your state, and backing that up with the data and the real voices of both companies and workers.
What does the fight to save the IRA on the Hill look like? Who are the main players to convince?
The first thing I would say is, the framing of “saving the IRA” — that’s not how we, or I think anyone else, thinks about it. A lot of the credits that we’re talking about predated the IRA, and so we really try to move the conversation on to, here are the pieces of these tax credits that both existed before and are currently benefiting your district. Brian Fitzpatrick on Ways and Means, he was instrumental in 2020 on some of the [investment tax credit] provisions.
We published a story this morning about the tough budget math that’s going to make it a lot harder to preserve the IRA. How is that playing into this lobbying push?
One thing I would say is, without getting too far in the weeds, I think the debate around “current policy baseline,” for how the tax package is paid for, is going to be probably the single most important thing. Even if you repealed all of the things we’re talking about, there’s no way to advance what the president wants in a tax package out of the House without a current policy baseline framework. So I think that is probably, even more so than the math of the current credits, going to be the pivotal piece of this larger policy.
Does that mean that you support a current policy baseline?
We have not advocated specifically, publicly on that issue. I’m just speaking from a process standpoint, that I would be very surprised if there’s a way that Republicans can get something out of the House if they don’t implement that current policy baseline.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct the name of Representative Brian Fitzpatrick.
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Renewables developers may yet be able to start construction before the One Big Beautiful Bill deadlines hit.
The Trump administration issued new rules for the wind and solar tax credits on Friday, closing the loop on a question that has been giving developers anxiety since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in early July.
For decades, developers have been able to lock in tax credit eligibility by establishing that they have officially started construction on a project in one of two ways. They could complete “physical work of a significant nature,” such as excavating the project site or installing foundational equipment, or they could simply spend 5% of the total project budget, for instance by purchasing key components and putting them in a warehouse. After that, they had at least four years to start shipping power to the grid before stricter work requirements kicked in.
Shortly after signing the OBBBA, however, Trump issued an executive order directing the Treasury Department to revise its definition of the “beginning of construction” of a wind or solar project. Under the new law, this definition can make or break a project. OBBBA established new deadlines for wind and solar development, allowing projects that start construction before the end of this year to qualify for the tax credits as they currently stand. But projects that start construction between January 1 and July 4 of 2026 will have to follow stringent new rules limiting the use of materials with ties to China in order to qualify.
The start construction date also affects how long a developer has to complete a project and still qualify for credits. Projects that start before July 4 of next year have at least four years, while those that start after must meet an impossibly short timeline of being up and running in just a year and a half, by the end of 2027.
Some worried the new guidance would narrow that four year timeframe or affect project eligibility retroactively. Neither happened. The only major change the Treasury department made to the existing guidance was to get rid of the 5% safe harbor provision. While this is not nothing, and will certainly disqualify some projects that might otherwise have been able to claim the credits, it is nowhere near as calamitous for renewables as it could have been.
Projects can still establish they have started construction by completing “physical work of a significant nature,” and the definition of physical work still includes off-site work, such as the manufacturing of equipment. That means it’s still possible for a company to simply place an order for a custom piece of equipment, like a transformer, to establish their start date — as long as they have a binding contract in place and can demonstrate that the physical production of the equipment is underway.
The new guidance also contains a carve-out that allows solar projects that are less than 1.5 megawatts to use the 5% rule, which will help rooftop solar and smaller community-scale installations.
Trump’s executive order came after a reported deal he made with House Freedom Caucus Republicans who wanted to axe the tax credits altogether. The order directed the Treasury to prevent “the artificial acceleration or manipulation of eligibility” and restrict “the use of broad safe harbors unless a substantial portion of a subject facility has been built.”
Treasury’s relative restraint, then, comes as something of a relief. “It’s not good, it’s not helpful, but from my perspective, the guidance could have been a lot worse,” David Burton, a partner at Norton Rose Fulbright who specializes in energy tax credits, told me. “Utility-scale solar and wind developers should be able to plan around this and not be that harmed.”
That doesn’t mean clean energy groups are happy about the changes, though. “At a time when we need energy abundance, these rules create new federal red tape,” Heather O’Neill, president and CEO of the industry group Advanced Energy United, said in a statement. “These rules will make it more difficult and expensive to build and finance critical energy projects in the U.S.”
The changes don’t go into effect until September 2, so for the next two weeks, all projects can still utilize the 5% safe harbor.
Even though the rules are not the death-blow for projects that some anticipated, there’s still one big unknown that could squeeze development further: The Treasury department has yet to put out guidance related to the new foreign sourcing rules created by the OBBB. One of the big fears there is that companies will have to prove their lack of ties to China so far up their supply chains that compliance becomes impossible.
We probably won’t be left wondering for long, though. Trump’s executive order asked for those rules within 45 days, putting the due date on Monday.
On the worsening transformer shortage, China’s patent boom, and New York’s nuclear embrace
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Erin is still intensifying as it approaches the Caribbean • Rare August rainstorms are deluging the Pacific Northwest with a month’s worth of precipitation in 24 hours, threatening floods • Hong Kong has issued its highest-level “black” rainstorm warning multiple times this month as Tropical Storm Podul lashes southern China.
President Donald Trump’s order to keep large fossil-fueled power stations scheduled to retire between now and 2028 operating indefinitely will cost ratepayers across the United States $3.1 billion per year, according to new research from the consultancy Grid Strategies on behalf of four large environmental groups. If the Department of Energy expands the order to cover all 54 fossil fuel plants slated for closure in the next three years, the price tag for Americans whose rates fund the subsidies to keep the stations running would rise to $6 billion per year.
The problem may only grow. The agency’s existing mandates “perversely incentivize plant owners to claim they plan to retire so they can receive a ratepayer subsidy to remain open,” the report points out.
With electricity consumption hitting new records in the U.S., demand for transformers is surging. The years-long supply shortage for power and distribution transformers is now set to hit a deficit below demand of 30% and 10%, respectively, in 2025, according to a new report from the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Complicating matters further for manufacturers scrambling to ramp up supply, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is throwing clean-energy projects into jeopardy and sending mixed signals to factories on what kinds of transformers to produce. At the same time, tariffs are raising the price of materials needed to make more transformers.
“The U.S. transformer market stands at a critical juncture, with supply constraints threatening to undermine the nation's energy transition and grid reliability goals,” Ben Boucher, a senior supply chain analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. “The convergence of accelerating electricity demand, aging infrastructure and supply chain vulnerabilities has created constraints that will persist well into the 2030s.”
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A worker in a Chinese electric vehicle factory. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
For years, China was known for ripping off the West’s technology and patenting cheaper but more easily manufactured copies. Not anymore. China applied for twice as many high-quality clean energy patents as the U.S. in 2022, according to a New York Times analysis of the most recently available public data. The European Patent Office, which supplied data to the Times, defines a “high quality” patent as one that has been filed in two or more countries, indicating that the company or individual involved has a strong competitive interest in protecting its idea.
The growth in China’s intellectual property ambitions is a sign that Beijing’s strategic push to ramp up academic research and industrial innovation is maturing. “It is the opposite of an accident,” said Jenny Wong Leung, an analyst and data scientist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which created a database of global research on technologies that are critical to nations’ economic and military security, including clean energy.
In June, New York Governor Kathy Hochul directed the New York Power Authority, the nation’s second-largest government-owned utility after the federal Tennessee Valley Authority, to support the construction of the state’s first new nuclear plant since the 1980s. Albany has plenty to sort out between now and the 15-year deadline for completing the project, including selecting a site, picking from one of the many new reactor designs, and finding a private partner. But one thing isn’t a problem, at least for now: Public support.
New Siena polling I covered in my Substack newsletter yesterday shows that 49% of registered voters in New York support the effort, with just 26% opposed. Both sides of the political spectrum are largely in lockstep, with Republican support outpacing that of Democrats by a margin of 55% to 49%. That’s lucky for Hochul, who will need support from the more politically conservative upper reaches of the state where the facility is likely to be built. For more on the technical and political considerations in play, here’s Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin on the plan.
It seems like everyone is abandoning their net zero goals. But not insurer Aviva. The company’s chief executive, Amanda Blanc, said the British giant remained committed to its carbon-cutting goals in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, The Guardian reported. With rising profits propelling shares in the company to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, Blanc said, “extreme weather conditions, climate change, and the impact that that has on our insurance business that actually insures properties” meant Aviva needed to “remain committed to our ambition.”
The red-headed wood pigeon once seemed on the verge of extinction. The population, endemic to Japan’s Ogasawara Islands, fell to below 80 individuals in the 2000s. But once its main predator, the feral cat, was removed, the bird made a remarkable comeback. A team of researchers at Kyoto University set out to find out why the expected problems from inbreeding never occurred. Per a press release: “Their results revealed that the frequency of highly deleterious mutations in the red-headed wood pigeon was lower than in the more widespread Japanese wood pigeon. This suggests that, rather than hindering it, the pigeon's success was likely rooted in its long-term persistence in a small population size prior to human impact.”
And more on the week’s most important conflicts around renewable energy projects.
1. Lawrence County, Alabama – We now have a rare case of a large solar farm getting federal approval.
2. Virginia Beach, Virginia – It’s time to follow up on the Coastal Virginia offshore wind project.
3. Fairfield County, Ohio – The red shirts are beating the greens out in Ohio, and it isn’t looking pretty.
4. Allen County, Indiana – Sometimes a setback can really set someone back.
5. Adams County, Illinois – Hope you like boomerangs because this county has approved a solar project it previously denied.
6. Solano County, California – Yet another battery storage fight is breaking out in California. This time, it’s north of San Francisco.