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There’s a decent chance that whoever the Republican Party nominates for president in 2024 will eventually win the White House.
That means they will have a huge sway over how — and whether — the United States pursues its energy and climate goals during this decisive decade for decarbonization. So while some — but not all — Republican officials reject the reality of climate change, key differences exist in the way each GOP presidential candidate talks about the issue.
Ahead of the first Republican primary debate, here is a guide to each of the major candidates and where they stand on climate change and energy questions. We plan on updating it through the campaign.
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Who is he? The 45th — and maybe the 47th — president of the United States. A four-time criminal defendant.
What he says about climate change: That it’s a “hoax,” “a total hoax,” “an expensive hoax,” and “a total, and very expensive, hoax.” Then in 2018 he told “Sixty Minutes” that “it’s not a hoax.” But recently he’s been saying it’s a hoax again.
What he did about climate change: Oh, what didn’t he try to do? He rolled back more than 100 climate or environmental regulations, pulled America out of the Paris Agreement, and expanded oil drilling in Alaska. He declined to regulate toxic particulate air pollution and tried to subsidize the coal industry. That said, his rollbacks were rarely as effective as he hoped because the court system often blocked them for lack of paperwork.
What he wants to do next: More of the same. He has promised to end any support for electric vehicles, pull America out of the Paris Agreement again, and build more oil refineries and gas pipelines. “Nobody has more liquid gold under their feet than the United States of America. And we will use it and profit by it and live with it,” he said.
Who is he? The 46th governor of Florida.
What’s his deal? DeSantis hates the effects of climate change, but doesn’t want to touch the causes.
What he says about climate change: DeSantis would prefer not to use that phrase — it’s too left-wing. “This idea of, quote, ‘climate change’ has become politicized. My environmental policy is just to try to do things that benefit Floridians,” he said in 2019. A year earlier, he offered: “I am not a global warming person. I don’t want that label on me.”
But he sometimes brags about his green record, even if he never says climate or carbon. “In Florida, we’ve seen emissions go down dramatically in the last 10 years,” he told Trey Gowdy, the Fox News host, this spring. “But that’s through market and innovation, that’s not through mandates.”
What he’s done about climate change: Despite his personal reticence to use the c-word, he lifted an alleged state-level ban on saying climate change, appointed Florida’s first state resilience officer, and has signed millions of dollars into law to fight flooding and sea-level rise. He also ordered the state environmental agency to base its decisions on the best-available science.
Yet lately he’s declined hundreds of millions in federal energy-efficiency funding and vetoed a bipartisan bill that would have saved Florida $277 million by replacing some state-owned cars with electric vehicles.
What he wants to do as president: DeSantis has promised to “reverse the federal government's attempt to force people to buy electric vehicles.” He has also pledged to “unleash our domestic energy sector” and “modernize and protect our grid,” although he hasn’t said how he would do either.
You probably didn’t know: DeSantis implemented a fracking ban soon after becoming governor, but hasn’t gotten the legislature to enact it.
Who is he? The 48th vice president of the United States and a likely star witness at one of Donald Trump’s criminal trials.
What he says about climate change: Back when he was running for the House in 2000, he said climate change was “a myth.” More recently, he’s recognized that human activities have “some” impact on the climate, but rejected the idea that climate change is a threat to national security.
What he’s done about climate change: As vice president, he helped Trump repeal dozens of climate protections. He praised the president’s decision to leave the Paris Agreement, saying it was “so refreshing to have a presidents who stands without apology ... for America first.”
What he wants to do: Pence has proposed perhaps the most detailed energy policy of any GOP candidate. Although he has promised increasing production of “all forms of U.S. energy,” much of his policy would boost fossil fuels: He wants to open up oil-and-gas drilling on federal land, loosen permitting rules to speed pipeline construction, increase oil refining capacity, and repeal much of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Who is she? The former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley was President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2018.
What she says about climate change: That it’s real, man-made, and that it could present threats to the United States.
What she’s done about climate change: As Trump’s UN ambassador, she helped orchestrate America’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the nonbinding global climate treaty. Back when she was South Carolina’s governor, she allegedly suppressed a state-level climate report.
What she wants to do as president: Haley has been vague, although she has said most liberal climate policies would “cost trillions and destroy our economy.” She’s backed efforts to capture carbon dioxide from industrial facilities. She also wants to plant more trees.
Who is he? A former insurance salesman, Tim Scott has served as a senator from South Carolina since 2013. He is the first African-American senator to be elected from the South since Reconstruction.
What he says about climate change: He has recognized that human activities are having some influence on the climate. “I am not living under a rock,” he said.
What he’s done about climate change: Scott’s decade-long Senate record is notably unfriendly to the climate. He voted against the Kigali Amendment, a global climate treaty that phased out the use of hydrofluorocarbon pollutants, even though 19 of his GOP colleagues supported it. He also opposed the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which funded EV chargers, public transit, and carbon removal experiments. And he has opposed messaging bills that recognized that human activity is driving climate change, even when his colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham, supported them.
What he wants to do about climate change: He’s been vague. A prominent Republican donor told Axios that he supports building out the next-generation nuclear-power industry. Scott has said it’s “ridiculous to talk about a climate emergency when we have a border emergency that is an existential threat right now.”
Who is he? Christie was the governor of New Jersey from 2010 to 2018.
What he says about climate change: That it’s real. “There’s undeniable data that CO2 levels and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are increasing … When you have over 90 percent of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role, it’s time to defer to the experts,” he said more than a decade ago.
What he’s done about climate change: As governor, he pulled New Jersey out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade market for carbon emissions from the power sector. But he also fought to cut emissions from a Pennsylvania coal plant.
What he wants to do about climate change: Like many candidates, he supports an “all-of-the-above” energy plan, although he has been kinder to climate goals than other Republicans and shown a particular interest in nuclear power. “We can’t disarm ourselves economically while we convert to cleaner energy,” he told a New Hampshire crowd in August. He supports increasing domestic oil production to help Ukraine.
Who is he? The son of Indian immigrants, Ramaswamy is the former chief executive of Roivant Sciences, a biotech company. The 38-year-old billionaire rose to prominence in conservative circles by opposing ESG investing — that is, environment, sustainability, and governance.
What he says about climate change: A lot. He told The Washington Post that he is “not a climate denier” but that global warming will not be “entirely bad.” He has also claimed that fossil fuels are “essential to human flourishing,” seeming to reject the modern scientific consensus that carbon pollution is causing climate change.
What he’s done about climate change: Ramaswamy has never held elective office. But as an anti-ESG activist, he wrote letters to Chevron telling it to stop supporting a carbon tax or monitoring some of its emissions.
What he wants to do about climate change: He appears to support almost no restrictions on carbon pollution. He wants to “drill, frack, and burn coal.” He also wants to “abandon the climate cult and unshackle nuclear energy,” even though it generates zero-carbon electricity.
Who is he? Hutchinson, a lawyer, was the governor of Arkansas from 2015 to 2023.
What he says about climate change: He told The New York Times that climate change is real and that human activities are “a contributing factor” to it. He doesn’t see it as an existential threat to the United States.
What he’s done about climate change: When campaigning for governor, Hutchinson promised to fight President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which would have cut carbon pollution from power plants. He praised some of President Trump’s environmental rollbacks.
What he wants to do about climate change: Hutchinson supports “energy independence” and opposes any effort to restrict carbon emissions. He told the Times that he would pull America out of the Paris Agreement and loosen rules on pipelines and drilling.
Who is he? Burgum is a former software executive and the 33rd governor of North Dakota.
What he says about climate change: Burgum told the Sioux City Journal that climate change is real, but that he doesn’t want to talk about the role that humans are playing in causing it. “The debate we're having between the different edges is one where cancel culture is alive and well because if anybody questions any aspect of this, they're immediately ostracized,” he said.
What he’s done about climate change: North Dakota is one of the country’s leading fossil-fuel producers, but Burgum has pledged to achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2030 without losing that commanding position. He wants to use carbon-capture technology, which his government has helped subsidize, to meet that goal within the state.
He also created North Dakota’s first Department of Environmental Quality.
What he wants to do about climate change: He’s been vague. “Anyone who cares about the climate should want as much energy produced in America as possible and sold around the globe,” his spokesman told The Washington Post.
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With historic lows projected for the next two weeks — and more snow potentially on the way — the big strain may be yet to come.
Winter Storm Fern made the final stand of its 2,300-mile arc across the United States on Monday as it finished dumping 17 inches of “light, fluffy” snow over parts of Maine. In its wake, the storm has left hundreds of thousands without power, killed more than a dozen people, and driven temperatures to historic lows.
The grid largely held up over the weekend, but the bigger challenge may still be to come. That’s because prolonged low temperatures are forecasted across much of the country this week and next, piling strain onto heating and electricity systems already operating at or close to their limits.
What issues there have been were largely due to damage in the transmission and distribution system, i.e. power lines freezing or being brought down by errant branches.
The outages or blackouts that have occurred have been the result of either operational issues with plants, scheduled maintenance, or issues specifically with snow affecting the distribution system. As yet there’s been no need for rolling blackouts to relieve grid congestion and preserve the system as a whole. Speaking about the country’s largest electrical grid, Jon Gordon, a director at Advanced Energy United, told Heatmap: “So far, so good.”
But this is all assuming we just get more cold weather. We could be in for another storm. Since late last week, the forecasting model maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — one of the two primary computer forecasting models, and generally considered more accurate than its analogue, the American model — has suggested there could be another major winter storm headed toward the Eastern U.S. next weekend. Whether it hits the Eastern Seaboard, clips it, or stays offshore, it’s still early to say with any confidence.
Should that storm hit, here’s what it’ll be barreling into.
Temperatures will likely remain below 0 degrees Fahrenheit across swaths of PJM Interconnection — the country’s largest regional transmission organization, covering the Mid-Atlantic through portions of the Midwest — with parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio not expected to see a day above freezing for the next two weeks.
Put simply, cold temperatures stress the grid. That’s because cold can affect the performance of electricity generators as well as the distribution and production of natural gas, the most commonly used grid fuel. And the longer the grid has to operate under these difficult conditions, the more fragile it gets. And this is all happening while demand for electricity and natural gas is rising.
Forced outages — which happen when power is pulled offline due to some kind of unexpected event or emergency — peaked on Sunday in PJM at just over 17,000 megawatts, while total outages were over 22 gigawatts on Monday, according to Grid Status’s Tim Ennis, who said some of them may have been due to ice “ice accumulation across Virginia.”
The market has also been serving more than its own 13-state territory. Already on Saturday — after the fierce cold had set in across its territory but before snow arrived — PJM noted to the Department of Energy that it had been asked to provide up to 3,000 megawatts to neighboring grids, and that it had already seen outages of around 20,000 megawatts — enough to serve 16 million people.
Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia reported the highest number of customers without power in the PJM region as of Monday afternoon, largely due to ice and snow that brought down tree branches on power lines or toppled utility poles.
Meanwhile, snow was still falling across New England on Monday afternoon, where parts of Massachusetts have received up to 20 inches. Another 8 inches could still accumulate on the Atlantic coast due to the ongoing lake effect, a common winter pattern in which cold Canadian air picks up moisture over the warmer Great Lakes, resulting in heavy snow downwind.
Though there were minimal blackouts in New England’s electricity market as of Monday morning, natural gas has fallen to just 30% of the grid’s fuel supply, from more than half at the same time a week earlier, with nearly 40% of its electricity output coming from oil-fired plants, Reuters reports. Solar generation peaked at less than a gigawatt on Sunday due to cloud cover, compared to over 4 gigawatts on Saturday and over 3 gigawatts on Friday. During the summer, ISO-NE’s combined behind-the-meter and utility-scale solar production can get as high as eight gigawatts.
The Department of Energy granted ISO New England, emergency permission to operate generators at maximum capacity, regardless of air quality and environmental standards. (It also granted the same dispensation to PJM and Texas’ grid operator, ERCOT.)
The most widespread outages in the country were concentrated in Tennessee, with some 230,000 customers in Nashville Electric Service’s area without power at one point. The disruptions were largely caused not by grid demands, but rather by nearly 100 broken utility poles and more than 70 distribution circuits taken down by the snow and ice, Utility Dive reported.
Mississippi and Louisiana also had outages, with around 4% of Energy customers offline according to Jefferies data, and around 10% of Entergy customers in Mississippi being affected by blackouts. By contrast, Jefferies data shows, less than 1% of Texas electricity customers were offline.
Typically, cold weather means higher natural gas prices, as the demand for home heating goes up alongside demand for electricity. The 44.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas forecast to be burned today would be the fifth highest January burn of all time in the U.S., according to Matthew Palmer, executive director at S&P Global Energy, in an email. The extended cold weather is expected to push natural gas stockpiles to their lowest since the winter of 2021 to 2022, according to S&P data.
Benchmark natural gas prices have shot up to $6.50 per million British thermal units, up from $5.28 on Friday. Crude oil prices by contrast were down slightly today, while heating oil prices were up around 5%.
High natural prices means that power markets are also expecting higher prices. Day-ahead average wholesale prices in Texas for 9 a.m. were almost $1,500 per megawatt-hour, compared to just $100 in the real-time market. In PJM, average real-time prices were around $270 at 9 a.m. compared to $482 in the day-ahead market.
“The worst is over, but we are expecting bitterly cold temperatures throughout the week. Please continue to avoid unnecessary travel and be vigilant about ice.” New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill, who had made electricity prices the centerpoint of her election campaign as well as her early days in office, said in a statement.
“While the worst of the snow is over, prolonged cold is still expected,” Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote in a note to clients Monday. That can lead to “resource adequacy events,” i.e. blackouts, “as fuel supplies get strained and plants face operational strains from more significant run-time.”
There’s particular pressure and attention during this cold snap on ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, after 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, which brought ice, snow, and below-0 temperatures to much of the state. Natural gas wellheads froze up as much of the system for pumping and distributing natural gas lost power. Power plants were “unprepared for cold weather,” a report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission found, “and thus failed in large numbers.” ERCOT had to order power plants to shut down for several days in order to protect the system as a whole from falling perilously out of frequency, which would have risked a complete blackout. Around 60% of the state’s households rely on electricity for heating, and the long freeze-out left 4 million homes and businesses without power. More than 200 people died.
In the intervening years, Texas has introduced new capacity and reforms meant to prevent a similar tragedy. While ERCOT “does not anticipate any reliability issues on the statewide electric grid,” per a spokesperson, the operator flagged for the DOE that low temperatures in the week ahead could raise demand to an “extreme level” that poses “significant risk of emergency conditions that could jeopardize electric reliability and public safety.” So far, though, it’s been holding up, with peak demand expected Monday morning and outages mostly limited to East Texas due to downed power lines.
The Tennessee Valley Authority, which operates a vertically integrated grid centered in Tennessee and spanning several neighboring states, warned of “extreme cold” in the coming days, but said that its generation fleet — which includes coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants — was “positioned to meet rising demand.” As of Monday morning, TVA said that 12 of the 153 power companies it serves had “distribution issues” related to the storm.
One Mississippi power company in the TVA system said that it had “suffered catastrophic damage” to its distribution system, specifically a 161 kilovolt transmission line operated by the TVA. The cold weather has dealt a double blow to the system, with TVA officials reporting ice on transmission and distribution lines as well as icy conditions making it difficult to service lines in need of repair.
Currently, TVA is forecasting that demand will peak Tuesday at just over 33,000 megawatts, according to EIA data. The system’s all-time winter peak is 35,430 megawatts.
PJM also expects several more days of tight conditions on the grid thanks to forecasted cold weather. The grid operator issued a “maximum generation emergency/load management alert” on Monday morning through at least the end of the day Tuesday, indicating that it needed to maintain high levels of generation throughout the system. It also asked generators for specifics on when any scheduled maintenance would be over in order to more carefully schedule operations to maintain reliability.
Over the weekend, PJM told the Energy Department that peak demand could exceed 130,000 megawatts “for seven straight days, a winter streak that PJM has never experienced.” The grid operator expects project peak demand over 147,000 megawatts on Tuesday, exceeding the previous record of 143,700 megawatts set last January. Demand peaked at 135,000 megawatts on Saturday and 129,000 megawatts on Sunday.
Current conditions: Winter Storm Fern buried broad swaths of the country, from Oklahoma City to Boston • Intense flooding in Zimbabwe and Mozambique have killed more than 100 people • South Australia’s heat wave is raging on, raising temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit.
The United States’ aging grid infrastructure faces a test every time the weather intensifies, whether that’s heat domes, hurricanes, or snow storms. The good news is that pipeline winterization efforts that followed the deadly blackouts in 2021’s Winter Storm Uri made some progress in keeping everything running in the cold. The bad news is that nearly a million American households still lost power amid the storm. Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana were the worst hit, with hundreds of thousands of households left in the dark, according to live data on the Power Outage tracker website. Georgia and Texas followed close behind, with roughly 75,000 customers facing blackouts. Kentucky had the next-most outages, with more than 50,000 households disconnected from the grid, followed by South Carolina, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama. Given the prevalence of electric heating in the typically-warmer Southeast, the outages risked leaving the blackout region without heat. Gas wasn’t entirely reliable, however. The deep freeze in Texas halted operations at roughly 10% of the Gulf Coast’s petrochemical facilities and refineries, Bloomberg reported.
On Saturday, right before Winter Storm Fern began, the Department of Energy issued its first emergency order of the year to deploy backup generation in Texas in hopes of avoiding a repeat of Uri. As of Sunday evening, data from Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s grid operator, showed natural gas providing nearly 60% of the electricity on the wires, with coal and wind neck-and-neck for second place and solar in a close fourth. It’s a relief that the grid is holding. But the overreliance on fossil fuels isn’t a good long-term strategy. While “climate change deniers love to use major winter storms as ‘proof’ that global warming isn’t real,” my colleague Jeva Lange wrote last week, “in the case of this weekend’s polar vortex, there is evidence that Arctic warming is responsible for the record cold temperature projections across the United States.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration finalized a rule last week clearing the way for companies to apply for the right to mine the deep ocean floor. Under the new rules, applications for commercial and exploratory licenses are streamlined into a single process, cutting the number of required environmental assessments and public comment hearings in half. The day after the final rule came out, The Metals Company, the leading startup racing to collect mineral-rich nodules from largely unexplored depths of international waters, submitted an application to mine an area roughly twice the size of its original plans. “Nearly 50 years after this industry took shape, it’s ready to move forward,” the company told The New York Times. But opposition to deep-sea mining is mounting as environmentalists highlight the risk the industry poses to a scarcely understood and still remarkably untouched ecosystem. A corporate campaign to oppose deep sea mining just added the solar giant Sunrun to its petition, as I told you last week.
Tesla has officially discontinued Autopilot, its basic self-driving software, in the U.S. and Canada. All new car purchases now come with standard Traffic-Aware Cruise Control, Sawyer Merritt, a self-described Tesla investor with a prolific social media presence, wrote in a post on X. The move, according to TechCrunch, is designed to boost adoption of Tesla’s more advanced Full Self-Driving setting. But it’s also in response to a courtroom loss in the company’s biggest market. Last month, a judge in California ruled that Tesla engaged in deceptive marketing by overstaying the capabilities of both Autopilot and FSD for years. The California Department of Motor Vehicles, which originally brought the case, gave Tesla two months to comply with the ruling by dropping the Autopilot name.
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New York Governor Kathy Hochul is going all in on nuclear power. She started off last year at the helm of a new multi-state alliance working on building more reactors. Over the summer, she directed the state-owned power authority to oversee construction of New York’s first new reactor since the 1980s. More recently, she inked a deal with Ontario to work together on building new plants and expanded her target fivefold to 5 gigawatts of new atomic energy in the state. Now she’s backed something a little more traditional but no less important. Last week, the state’s utility regulators extended subsidies for existing nuclear plants by another two decades in hopes of keeping aging reactors open until at least 2049.
In Denmark, meanwhile, the government has officially started considering building small modular reactors and lifting the nuclear ban the parliament put into effect 40 years ago. “Green energy from solar and wind is now and will continue to be the backbone of the Danish energy supply, but we can also see that it cannot stand alone,” Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s climate, energy and utilities minister, said in a statement. “We must be open to examining whether other technologies can provide us with green energy in the future. Small modular nuclear reactors may be an option.”
Standard Nuclear, a startup producing TRISO atomic fuel required by several of the nation’s leading small modular reactor designs, has raised $140 million in Series A funding. The investment round was led by Decisive Point, with first-time backing from Chevron Technology Ventures, StepStone Group, and XTX Ventures. Several existing investors, including Fundomo, Andreessen Horowitz, and Crucible Capital, increased their stakes. The financing will support Standard Nuclear’s plans to expand TRISO production to over 2 metric tons per year at multiple sites across the country. The timeline, the company said, is “rapid” and will take place by mid-2026. “With this funding, we are positioned to accelerate our roadmap, scale operations, and deliver on the promise to fuel the next generation of reactors powering industry, defense, and space,” Kurt Terrani, Standard Nuclear’s chief executive, said in a statement.
While TRISO was invented decades ago, the fuel — which has extra layers of ceramic coating that are meant to make a meltdown virtually impossible — is making a comeback as the go-to material for next-generation reactors designed to reach higher temperatures by using coolants other than water. Standard Nuclear has also inked a deal with the nuclear recycling company SHINE Technologies to work on reprocessing radioactive waste into fresh fuel.
Years ago, at a lecture about the spread of Lyme disease in the New York area, I learned that opossums eat thousands of ticks every season. That information totally changed my perception of a rodent that previously creeped me out. Well, it turns out kestrels — colorful, predatory birds — serve a similar function on fruit farms. New research in the Journal of Applied Ecology suggests kestrels keep harmful pathogens off fruit by eating and scaring off small birds that carry those diseases. Orchards that housed the birds in nest boxes saw fewer cherry-eating birds than orchards without, translating to what Inside Climate News described as a 81% reduction in crop damage.
In some ways, fossil fuels make snowstorms like the one currently bearing down on the U.S. even more dangerous.
The relationship between fossil fuels and severe weather is often presented as a cause-and-effect: Burning coal, oil, and gas for heat and energy forces carbon molecules into a reaction with oxygen in the air to form carbon dioxide, which in turn traps heat in the atmosphere and gradually warms our planet. That imbalance, in many cases, makes the weather more extreme.
But this relationship also goes the other way: We use fossil fuels to make ourselves more comfortable — and in some cases, keep us alive — during extreme weather events. Our dependence on oil and gas creates a grim ouroboros: As those events get more extreme, we need more fuel.
This weekend, some 200 million Americans will be cranking up the thermostats in their natural-gas-heated homes, firing up their propane generators, or hitting icy roads in their combustion-engine cars as a major winter storm brings record-low temperatures to 35 states, knocks out power, and grinds air travel to a halt.
Climate change deniers love to use major winter storms as “proof” that global warming isn’t real. But in the case of this weekend’s polar vortex, there is evidence that Arctic warming is responsible for the record cold temperature projections across the United States.
“In the Arctic, in the winter, the ocean is much, much warmer than the atmosphere,” Judah Cohen, a climatologist at MIT and the author of a 2021 paper linking Arctic variability to extreme weather in the U.S., told me. Sea ice acts as an insulating layer separating the warmer ocean water from the frigid air. But as it melts — as it is doing every month of the year — “all of this heat can now be extracted out of the ocean.” The reduced temperature difference between the ocean and atmosphere creates wavy high-pressure ridges and low-pressure troughs that are favorable to the formation of polar vortices, which can funnel extreme cold air down over North America, as they seemingly did over Texas in 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, when 246 people died.
The exact mechanisms and interactions of this phenomenon are still up for debate. “I am in the minority that argues that there is causal link between a warm Arctic and cold continents,” Cohen added to me via email. “Most others argue that it is a coincidental relationship.” Still, scientists generally agree that extreme cold events will persist in a warming world; they’ll just become rarer.
Cold kills more people in the United States than heat, but curiously, warmer winters aren’t likely to significantly reduce these seasonal deaths. That’s because about half of the cases of excess mortality in winter are from cardiovascular diseases, which are, by nature, “highly seasonal,” Kristie Ebi, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, told me. “Since people began studying these, there are more of them in the winter than there are in the summer.” Researchers still aren’t sure why that is — though since the 1940s, we’ve known that people’s blood pressure, cholesterol, and even blood viscosity go up during the colder and darker months, perhaps due to changes in diet or exercise. That also appears to be the case regardless of climate or temperature, holding true whether you’re in Yellowknife or Miami.
In other words, “if seasonal factors other than temperature are mainly responsible for winter excess mortality, then climate warming might have little benefit,” Patrick Kinney, the director of Columbia University’s Climate and Health Program, wrote in Environmental Research Letters back in 2015. Extreme heat-related deaths, by contrast, have no ceiling, meaning global warming will result in more temperature-related deaths than it will prevent.
Our anthropogenically warmer winters could even prove to be more deadly in certain ways. Dana Tobin is a researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder who studies how weather affects traffic accidents. She’s found that driving in freezing rain is more dangerous than driving in snow “because of the ice glaze that it can produce on surfaces, especially those that are untreated,” she told me. As winters become warmer, there will, counterintuitively, be more ice on roads in many places, since freezing rain requires a bit of warm air before it hits the ground and becomes black ice.
Researchers working in Scandinavia have similarly found that as the atmosphere warms and more days hover around freezing, “there is a higher risk of icy conditions … which may lead to a predisposition to falls and road traffic accidents.” (As I’ve previously reported, milder winters might also make us even more depressed than very cold ones.)
There is something slightly karmic about the fact that cars become increasingly unsafe as the planet, warmed by their emissions, becomes more hazardous. But this connection gets even bleaker when carbon monoxide poisoning is factored in.
On Thursday, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation issued a statement warning that “much of North America is at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions,” including “advancing winter weatherization of power plants and fuel acquisition to enable operations during cold temperatures.” Heavy ice can also snap branches above power lines, causing local outages.
When the power goes out or the gas lines freeze, desperate people will do anything to stay warm. That includes, in tragic cases, running improperly vented generators or plugging in propane heaters indoors, which can produce odorless and colorless CO — instead of the usual water and carbon dioxide — when fossil fuels don’t burn correctly. Accidental carbon monoxide poisoning is on the rise in the United States due to the proliferation of such appliances amid increasingly frequent extreme weather events, jumping 86% between 2012 and 2022. That’s even as, worldwide, carbon monoxide poisoning is decreasing.
Snow and ice are among the most dangerous weather conditions in the U.S., and people should take warnings of “life-threatening conditions” at face value. Tobin, the traffic researcher, stressed that one of the best protections from winter weather hazards is knowledge alone. “I believe the best thing that we can do when it comes to messaging to protect drivers from hazards is to empower motorists to make educated and informed decisions for their own safety and the safety of others,” she told me.
Winter storms highlight the entangled nature of our dependence on fossil fuels. We can’t separate extreme weather events from the energy required to survive them. But the dark irony is that, as the planet becomes more volatile, the most dangerous fossil fuels might be the ones meant to keep us warm and get us back home.