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It’s official: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz got the rose.
On Tuesday morning, after days of frenzied speculation that floated names including Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Kamala Harris announced that Walz’s name will be the one to underline hers on the presumptive Democratic presidential ticket.
Many on the climate left will likely be thrilled by the pick: Of all the finalists reportedly in contention for VP, Walz had the most impressive clean energy and environmental accomplishments. An Army veteran and former congressman of a rural, otherwise conservative Minnesota district, Walz has a record of working across party lines to get things accomplished. In 2009, he memorably voted for the doomed cap-and-trade bill and defended his position to tough crowds of Midwestern farmers and ranchers.
Within months of being sworn in as Governor of Minnesota in 2019, Walz set a goal for his state to get its electricity from 100% carbon-free sources by 2050. At the time, only a few other states had similar goals. “Climate change is an existential threat. We must take immediate action,” Walz argued at the time. “If Washington is not going to lead, Minnesota will lead.”
By the time Walz signed actual emissions legislation into law last year, he’d set an even more ambitious timeline — carbon-free electricity by 2040. The bill also streamlined permitting, set a minimum wage for employees constructing large-scale utility projects, and included an environmental justice provision to keep energy from waste incineration plants in frontline communities from counting toward the 2040 goal. Minnesota continued “crushing it on climate action” in the months that followed, with Walz securing a $2 billion budget package that included grid improvements, solar panels on state-owned buildings, an electric-vehicle rebate program, heat pump grants and rebates, a green bank, and more. He also signed a transportation bill to overhaul transit hubs, expand passenger rail service, improve infrastructure, and offer electric bike credits.
And he hasn’t stopped. Earlier this summer, Walz announced a $200 million grant to reduce food-related pollution, including protecting and restoring carbon-absorbing peatlands, improving food waste programs, and replacing gas-powered agricultural machinery with trucks that run on electricity or clean fuel. The state is also considering bills that would reform building codes to improve access to affordable housing — an issue Walz has taken a personal interest in. Walz is also, apparently, a YIMBY on energy permitting.
YIMBYs to the white house!
"We have permitting that takes too long...and prohibits or makes more expensive doing renewable energy projects. I think that same thing applies to housing. We put up barriers to making it more affordable." - Democratic VP Candidate Tim Walz https://t.co/MAiy3Ct5B5 pic.twitter.com/EnswfMw67g
— Jordan Grimes 🚰 (@cafedujord) August 6, 2024
Walz’s canny communication skills have already been much remarked upon, and he’s openly recognized that many on the left struggle with a messaging problem regarding climate change. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community,” the governor told Time’s Justin Worland. “All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”
Walz’s record isn’t spotless, though. During his congressional career, he earned a score of just 75% from the League of Conservation Voters. Earlier this summer, a coalition of 16 environmental groups, including the local Sierra Club chapter, called out Walz and his administration for being too soft on regulation, including state agencies’ reliance on farmers voluntarily complying with nitrate pollution limits, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency’s failure to adequately police air quality violations from a foundry in a low-income neighborhood, and what the group argued was a flawed permitting process for a crude oil pipeline built through wetlands. North Dakota Republicans — including Governor Doug Burgum, who’s been floated for a potential Trump cabinet — have pressured Walz to include carbon capture as a carbon-free energy technology under the state’s emissions law (currently, decisions over CCS and hydrogen are under the purview of Minnesota’s Public Utilities Commission).
There’s also the small matter that Harris and Walz have to actually win to be able to enact any of their climate goals. At least on paper, the math had looked slightly better for Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, who is an incredibly popular governor in a must-win state. “Minnesota is very unlikely to be the tipping point state — less than a 1% chance,” Nate Silver wrote Tuesday morning, arguing that Shapiro would have been a better pick despite mounting criticism from progressives.
Within hours of the news, though, the climate left had already enthusiastically circled around Walz. In a statement, Evergreen Action Executive Director Lena Moffitt applauded Walz’s “masterclass in how to govern in a way that meaningfully improves people’s lives and sets the state up for a thriving future.” Cassidy DiPaola, the communications director at Fossil Free Media and a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign, likewise acknowledged Walz’s progress on green issues, nodding to his “evolution into a climate champion.” She added that Walz has more than proven himself at the state level and that “his ability to connect climate policy to the everyday concerns of Midwestern and rural voters could prove invaluable in building broader support for climate action.”
That, after all, will be the big question. Early voting for the next president of the United States begins in 41 days.
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Catching up with the American Council on Renewable Energy’s Ray Long.
Today’s chat is with Ray Long, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. We first discussed the odds of permitting reform a year and a half ago, for one of the first Q&As in The Fight. Flash forward and we’re still in the same situation, but now also wrestling with added demand for electricity to power data centers. I wanted to talk again about whether he thought the rise of artificial intelligence would increase the odds of some federal deal happening any time soon. The result: a wide-reaching conversation about the future of the electric grid, the struggles to win community buy-in and the sclerotic nature of the U.S. Congress.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
Do you think the buildout of our energy grid is entwined with the rise of the nation’s data center buildout?
When you look at what we need over the next four years — 166 gigawatts, 15 times the peak load of New York City — that’s a lot of power to build. Roughly half of that is for data center and AI growth.
There are five things we can build in the next four years at scale to address that collective amount. First, it’s transmission — the transmission buildout will help to get a modern grid to enable power flow to where it’s needed in a much more effective way. That’s the first step because if we just build all that power, the current grid can’t handle it.
Second, there are four supply technologies that can be built: solar, batteries, wind, and natural gas. All four of those technologies, we know there’s enough equipment here in the U.S. available for purchase that we can build at volume. And I’ll say this — natural gas is only about 10% of all those gigawatts because of the availability of turbines from suppliers. You can’t get enough over the next four years. So when I talk about decarbonization, most of what is built to address this issue is zero-carbon resources, renewable energy resources.
If you were to compare the current conversation around data center development to the debate over developing renewable energy in the U.S. — or energy in general — do you see any similarities or differences?
There are always issues with permitting projects. Communities are always going to have concerns about what’s built in their backyards.
What’s new — and your polling shows this — is the level of concern communities have. But here’s the thing: Most of this can be overcome by developers going in, listening to what the needs of the communities are, then responding and through the permitting process addressing those concerns. You can’t do that 100% of the time. But my experience is, when you take that sort of approach, you can overcome a lot of it.
Most of the large data centers are actually doing the things I’m discussing — going in and saying, Look, we want to be grid interconnected because grid connection at the end of the day means the resources we’re bringing to bear are also going to make a stronger grid. Number two, it's investing in power generation sources like the ones I said — and those power sources will be on the grid, so they’ll solve for the increased power demands of a community.
Third, water. They should bring the water solutions. You’re seeing data centers coming in and saying it head on now, that they have closed-loop systems or whatever the solution is. At the end of the day, the communities they’re proposing these in have a real negotiating opportunity to make sure they’re holding the data center developers accountable to the needs of the community.
For a community to say we don’t want it here misses a real opportunity for those communities to get the power they need, the grid they need, and the ability to bring down energy costs.
How is the data center debate affecting permitting reform conversations in Washington, from your perspective?
Permitting reform in the U.S. at the state and federal level has been broken for years. The SunZia transmission project? It took 17 years to permit. Ribbon-cutting is in a week or two and there’s still litigation around it. From a business perspective, it’s just untenable, and it’s a miracle that the project is getting built. Developers need a chance to come in and have their project evaluated. Both the community and the developer should be able to get to a go or no-go in a couple of years on one of these projects.
How is data center growth affecting the permitting reform discussion? It’s a very hot issue right now. Right now I think in part because the data center issue is so huge — because we’ve only got four years to solve for the first really big tranche of power we need and prices across the board for electricity are escalating — this is coming to a head. The data center load is a part of the catalyst to get people talking about it [permitting reform].
Do you expect legislating in Congress on permitting reform this year? Anything beyond more conversation?
My hope is that we get a bill. A few weeks ago someone from the administration was quoted as saying they wanted a framework for a bill by the end of May, and it’s June now. We haven’t seen both sides or the administration coalesce around a final project yet.
We’re in a midterm election cycle. Typically it’s very difficult during these cycles to move bills like this. At the same time, with electricity prices increasing and the need to build more, to fix this, I’m very hopeful something will come together. And look at the Senate — you’ve got Republicans and the Democratic ranking members talking about this. It’s all good signs.
If everyone’s talking about energy and affordability during this election, isn’t that a good thing for action in the next Congress?
I’ll say this: You’re seeing the catalyst for it right now with prices rising, and almost every grid operator around the country has raised concerns about shortages at some point this year or next year. It’ll hopefully be enough to have policymakers do something about it this year.
Plus more of week’s biggest development fights.
1. Ohio — This state might just be the most important flashpoint in the national fight over advanced energy and tech infrastructure.
2. Laramie County, Wyoming — The Cowboy State’s capital city is one of the few to reject a data center moratorium. But tech companies. don’t get your hopes up too high.
3. Los Angeles County, California — Elsewhere, we saw the first city in California vote to ban data centers … once and for all.
4. Charles County, Maryland — This populous county south of D.C. is now out of reach for data center development.
5. Baldwin County, Alabama — There will be a vote at the end of this month on whether to ban solar in the county whose opposition nearly prompted a statewide moratorium on development.
6. Hopkins County, Texas — I have one last update related to a large data center legal fight we’ve been covering closely.
The national AI data center moratorium has momentum.
As I’ve been documenting for months here at The Fight, data center opposition is surging across the country. Our latest Heatmap Pro poll puts some very hard numbers behind that picture. More than 7 in 10 Americans oppose new data center construction near where they live, up from just over 4 in 10 last fall. Part of what’s driving that opposition: More than half of respondents hold data centers largely responsible for rising electricity prices, and nearly half are pessimistic about the effect artificial intelligence will have on their lives.
Here’s yet another data point from our poll that underscores the intensity of the opposition: A majority of Americans now say they support a nationwide halt to new data center construction.
Digging into demographics, support for a national AI data center moratorium breaks predictably based on age and gender — younger people are more likely to back the idea, as are women. Americans are just as likely to back moratoria in their own states as they are a national stop to development, indicating the public relations rot may run deep amongst its critics in the public.
The notion of an AI data center moratorium comes from the political left, specifically Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who introduced the first bill to enact such a pause earlier this year. Yet its appeal straddles political lines. Among Democrats, 66% said they’d back a national moratorium, compared to just 19% opposed; in the Republican camp, 55% said they backed the idea, compared to 28% opposed. Independents echoed those views as well, with answers falling neatly in between the two sides (58% support, 21% oppose).
The surge in support for a country-wide stop to new data centers stands in contrast to the more hesitant attitude politicians of all stripes have shown toward the opposition movement. That includes the White House, which until this week embraced a deregulatory approach to fostering AI tech before abruptly changing course this week and seeking early access to new models.
A good example of this political distance exists in Missouri, where Republican Governor Mike Kehoe last month proudly declared that Google was investing $15 billion in a hyperscale data center project in the rural town of New Florence in Montgomery County. After Kehoe’s announcement, the White House’s rapid response media account joined in on celebrating this economic investment, touting the potential for “thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs” from the Google project.
Among the hoi polloi, however, discontent was rife. This was actually the second large data center project in New Florence, and locals in and around this town of fewer than 1,000 residents have been busy suing the county to halt a separate Amazon data center proposed directly across from Google’s project.
Montgomery County is incredibly conservative politically and “has voted red since I can’t even remember,” Sabrina Cope, an organizer with opposition group Preserve Montgomery County, told me over the phone. “They’re turning up their nose at the White House’s support for these kinds of projects. This isn’t an issue solely Democrats or Republicans are upset about.” (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)
The political mismatch here is also bipartisan.
In New York, state legislators on Thursday passed legislation to enact a one-year pause on new data center permitting. The bill now goes to the desk of New York’s governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul, who has signaled she’s against a broad moratorium. “This is a local decision for municipalities,” Hochul told reporters last month, according to a Politico report. “It’s not a statewide approach, necessarily, but it’s something I’m looking at intensely.”
The scene in the Empire State feels eerily similar to what happened in the Pine Tree State when Maine Democrats sought to enact a moratorium, only to be stymied by a veto from Governor Janet Mills, also a Democrat. Should Hochul spurn the state legislature, it would defy what our polls say is the overwhelming political opinion.
Our poll also found rural voters are almost 10 points more likely than suburban and urban denizens to support a moratorium on new data centers. Knowing how often land use conflicts occur in upstate New York, where voters skew Republican, the yeoman’s calculus in both parties might lead more politicians to support temporarily stopping or stalling data center industry growth.
In Illinois, we’re starting to see policy start to align at least a little more closely with what Democratic voters want. On Friday, Governor J.B. Pritzker announced he would pause data center tax breaks and ask the state legislature to enact a new statute governing the industry’s water and energy use as well as deployment of non-disclosure agreements. If Illinois is a harbinger of things to come in blue states, we’ll see more action like this.