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If the global shipping industry were its own nation, it would be the sixth largest emitter of carbon dioxide, belching about a billion tons of the stuff into the atmosphere every year. And not to state the obvious, but the sector isn’t going anywhere. Not only is cargo shipping the means by which 80% of global trade is carried out, but transporting goods via ship is actually much more fuel-efficient than the alternatives.
That means that slashing shipping emissions, which account for nearly 3% of the global total, is 100% necessary for a decarbonized future. But unlike most other industries, there’s a global regulatory body — the International Maritime Organization — that can set goals and mandates to ensure that decarbonization happens on schedule. The IMO is targeting net-zero shipping emissions by 2050, with a 40% reduction in the carbon intensity of international shipping by 2030 compared to 2008. And while these goals aren’t binding, forthcoming measures set to be developed and adopted late next year will be.
Shipping decarbonization is still in its early infancy though, meaning the pathway to net zero remains highly unclear — and that there’s lots of room for technological innovation. One company that’s gained traction in the past few years is aiming more at the “net” than the “zero” part of that equation — rather than develop clean fuels, UK-based startup Seabound is retrofitting ships with onboard carbon capture devices. The process uses a technology called calcium-looping that allows the company to capture carbon from the ship’s exhaust system, essentially locking it up in a limestone rock, and then process it later on land.
Though it’s relatively unproven, onboard carbon capture has the potential to gain ground quickly if it can be shown to work at scale. But precisely because the technology is unproven, the industry is far from unified in the idea that it will play a consequential role in the final decarbonization picture. “Alternative fuels are probably going to be the dominant solution,” Aparajit Pandey, shipping decarbonization lead at the think tank RMI, told me.
Indeed, low and zero-carbon fuels made from green methanol or ammonia (which are themselves made from green hydrogen) are widely considered the leading contenders in this space — while methanol does produce some CO2 when burned, it’s much cleaner than fossil fuels due to its low carbon and high oxygen content, and ammonia contains no carbon at all. But it could take a while to ramp up production to meet the industry’s ravenous fuel demand. Plus, repowering an existing ship with ammonia or methanol requires an expensive and time-consuming engine retrofit, and turning over the entire global fleet could take decades.
Other ideas and approaches abound. Biofuels? They come with a familiar host of concerns, plus fuel production is inherently limited by the amount of biomass that’s available. Solar-powered ships? Folks are trying, but current panels aren’t nearly energy dense enough to power a freighter on their own. Electrifying ships? It definitely makes sense for smaller vessels like ferries and tugboats, but batteries also take up a lot of space that could otherwise be used for freight. They also need to be either charged or swapped, requiring infrastructure that just doesn’t exist yet.
“Carbon capture is probably the only way that you can get a meaningful amount of emissions reduction in any near term way,” Clea Kolster, partner and head of science at Lowercarbon Capital, told me, referring to the cargo shipping industry. Lowercarbon led Seabound’s $4.4 million seed round two years ago.
This is not a zero sum calculation, however. Seabound CEO Alisha Fredricksson told me that she believes both methanol and ammonia fuels have a significant role to play. “They’re just taking a long time to develop. And so we won't have sufficient supply for another 10, 20 years or so.”
Seabound’s system works by reacting the CO2 in a ship’s exhaust gas with calcium oxide to form solid calcium carbonate (aka limestone). This essentially locks the carbon away in small pebbles, which are unloaded when the ship docks. Because Seabound doesn’t purify or compress the CO2 onboard, the company says its system requires “negligible” amounts of additional fuel to operate. Once on land, the plan is for Seabound to either sell the limestone for use as a building material or to separate the CO2 and calcium oxide; the latter could then be reused to capture more carbon, while the former could either be used to produce methanol shipping fuel or geologically sequestered.
There are other companies attempting onboard carbon capture: Value Maritime, Mitsubishi, and Wartsila, among others, all of which rely on amine-based systems, a well-proven technology for carbon removal on land. But Fredricksson told me that miniaturizing these systems to work on ships is much more capital and energy intensive than Seabound’s decoupled approach, which allows the company to capture the CO2 at sea and process it later on land. This older tech also produces liquified CO2, which she says ports are less equipped to handle than a solid material like limestone.
Seabound completed its maiden voyage earlier this year, leaving from Turkey and traveling around the Middle East in a months-long trip that put their tech to the test in the real world for the first time. The system was installed on a freighter from Lomar Shipping, and was able to capture carbon at 78% efficiency and sulfur, a pollutant that can cause respiratory problems and acid rain, at about 90% efficiency while it was running.
Fredricksson and the company’s backers deemed the voyage a great success. “We hit the results we were looking for,” she told me. But in the grand scheme of things, the pilot was still quite small-scale. Seabound’s system only captured about 1 metric ton of carbon per day, a tiny percent of the ship’s overall emissions. That’s because the system was only running for a total of around 100 hours during the two months it was at sea. The objective, Fredricksson told me, was not to capture as much CO2 as possible, but to demonstrate the technical feasibility of the system and prepare for future scale-up.
Ultimately, the company hopes to capture up to 95% of a ship’s carbon emissions. But similar to batteries, this involves a space-related tradeoff. A larger, more effective carbon capture system would mean less room for cargo. “So I think the main goal for our engineering team over time will be to increase the efficiency to pack more and more tons of CO2 into each container,” Fredricksson told me. Right now, she says that 10- to 14-day voyages are Seabound’s sweet spot, given the size of its systems. The company hopes to build its first full scale system by the end of this year and start delivering to commercial customers in 2025.
The degree of interest in Seabound’s systems will depend in no small part on forthcoming directives from the IMO. As of now, there’s a rule mandating that ships calculate their energy efficiency and report it to the organization. Fredricksson says it’s already getting harder to sell ships with lower ratings. Pandey said he thinks future regulations could resemble the FuelEU initiative, which requires a steady decrease in the emissions intensity of shipping fuels over time, from 2% in 2025 to up to 80% by 2050.
While it’s unclear how a rule like this would incorporate onboard carbon capture into its framework, Pandey told me that if Seabound can prove out its tech on a larger scale, the approach is promising. “Of the carbon capture solutions that are out there, they’re probably the most innovative,” he told me. But he’s not sure that the company’s aim to commercialize by next year is realistic. “From now to prove it out to scale, who knows? Five years, six years, seven years, something like that,” Pandey guessed, “I think it could be viable, but it's so early.”
A recent report on the potential of onboard carbon capture from DNV, an organization that maintains technical standards for ships, agrees that a longer timeline is more likely, stating that, “With the wider [carbon capture, utilization, and storage] infrastructure in development, scaling up of the maritime carbon capture network will take time and is expected to reach a broader uptake after 2030.”
Since returning from its first voyage, Seabound has reconfigured its system to fit into modified shipping containers that are intended to reduce retrofit time and costs. Now, if a shipowner wants to use Seabound’s system, the primary modification involves installing pipes to route exhaust from the ship’s smokestack or funnel to the company’s carbon capture device. Fredricksson estimates installation costs will be on the order of $100,000 per ship, though that will vary greatly depending on vessel size and type.
But if that estimate is in the right ballpark, it would be orders of magnitude cheaper than retrofitting a ship with an engine built for ammonia or methanol fuels. And yet Pandey isn’t so sure ship operators will be keen on either upgrade. “My strong guess is if they’re not going to retrofit a vessel for a new engine, they’re also not going to retrofit it for carbon capture,” Pandey told me.
Fredricksson expects Seabound will raise a Series A round later this year or early next, to help get its first commercial units off the line. And apparently, there’s been loads of investor interest. “Shipping and maritime is new for the climate tech ecosystem,” Fredricksson told me, meaning there’s lots to be gained by moving quickly and early. “There is so much CO2 out there being emitted by ships,” Fredricksson said, “and not a lot of solutions yet going after them.”
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The companies just launched a major VPP play.
For all the hype surrounding virtual power plants, they’re still a niche player on the U.S. electric grid. A new partnership between three of the biggest residential energy companies in the country — Tesla, Sunrun, and Renew Home — aims to recast VPPs into a leading role.
The companies announced on Wednesday that they have more than 16 gigawatts of dispatchable VPP capacity available today to deliver to utilities and data center developers throughout the country. That’s about the same as 16 nuclear reactors, except instead of generating power round the clock from a central plant, the companies aggregate unused electricity capacity from thousands of individual home solar and battery systems and programmable thermostats, and can make it available for several hours at a time.
Today, the companies bid these resources into electricity markets as a sort of bespoke grid service. A few times per year — often in the summer months when demand spikes — the grid operator in California might ask Sunrun to switch on its VPP to prevent a blackout. That means Sunrun’s rooftop solar and battery customers all either begin exporting excess power to the grid or rely more on their energy storage systems for their own power needs, reducing strain on the grid. Tesla operates similar programs, some in partnership with Sunrun. Renew Home, which spun out of Google Nest, does the same thing but with thermostats and water heaters, nudging temperatures on thousands of devices up or down during peak demand hours.
“A lot of our assets are enrolled in a contract where they can be used up to 20 times per year,” Paul Dickson, the president and chief revenue officer of Sunrun, told me. Now the company, along with its partners, are making the pitch to utilities and hyperscalers to view VPPs as 365-day resources, and more fully integrate them into their grid planning.
It’s a “turnkey” solution, the companies wrote in a press release, “deployable in months, not years,” that requires “no additional hardware, software, interconnection, water, or land usage for offtaking parties.”
VPPs also typically kick back some of the proceeds they earn from the electricity market to the residential customers hosting the solar panels, batteries, and programmable thermostats providing the power, meaning they can meet growing energy demand while helping to lower household energy bills. Sunrun and Renew Home paid out a combined $67 million in customer rewards last year.
About 60% of the 16 gigawatts the companies have available are tied to Renew Home’s enrolled devices, with the remaining 40% coming from Sunrun and Tesla’s solar and battery assets, Dickson told me. The capacity is also spread out geographically. There’s about 1.7 gigawatts available in Texas — the second largest data center market in the country, Dickson pointed out. There’s 300 megawatts available in Virginia, which the companies expect to grow to 500 megawatts by 2030.
“Unlike a traditional power plant that's fixed in size, this number grows every single day as the combined three companies continue to add additional capacity,” Dickson said. Sunrun alone plans to more than double its energy storage capacity by the end of 2028.
If utilities and large industrial customers buy the VPP pitch, the companies will be able to expand even more quickly, he added. If regulators or utilities come back and say, we’ll take your existing capacity today, and if you can add another gigawatt in the next year, here’s what we’ll pay, Sunrun could potentially reduce the upfront cost to customers to host the solar and battery installations, driving faster adoption.
The new partnership follows a similar announcement earlier this month from the VPP company Voltus, which signed a three-year agreement with Google. Voltus will provide up to 100 megawatts per year of capacity for Google in PJM, the country’s largest (and most constrained) electricity market covering much of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. In that case, however, Voltus is using the deal with Google to finance the VPP, with the capacity set to come online by 2027.
The Tesla/Sunrun/Renew Home group is simply announcing they are open for business — they haven’t signed up any offtakers yet. Dickson told me the companies wanted to “make everybody aware that there is this uncontracted capacity, and make sure that it goes to the place that it can be most impactful.” Wednesday’s announcement is accompanied by a live map that shows where the capacity is. The companies did, however, already bid over a gigawatt of capacity into PJM, the larger energy market that Virginia is a part of, as part of its emergency procurement to meet near-term load growth in the region, and are waiting to hear if they were selected.
Last year, the electrification advocacy group Rewiring America published a paper arguing that hyperscalers could free up grid capacity for at least a third of the load growth expected from data centers if they paid for residential households to get heat pumps. All of that capacity would simply be the result of swapping inefficient appliances for more efficient versions, reducing the overall energy use of the homes. If hyperscalers also financed residential solar and storage upgrades, they could more than meet data center demand, the report posited.
That’s not how these VPP proposals are going to work — residential customers will still have to pay something to Sunrun and Tesla for their solar panels and batteries. But Ari Matusiak, the founder and CEO of Rewiring America, told me he viewed these new VPP partnerships as a step in that direction. Today, energy markets are largely bifurcated between residential market activity and large industrial customers. “Where we are going is toward a world where we think about the household as actual energy infrastructure and not simply an end of the line billpayer,” he said. “Once you start doing that, it changes the economics of how those household upgrades are treated and what the opportunities are.”
Current conditions: The warehouse fire in Boyle Heights is raging for a third day, spewing dark smoke over the Downtown Los Angeles skyline • The death toll from Western Europe’s heatwave has reached into the dozens • An 18-wheeler carrying more than 400 beehives overturned in eastern Texas and filled a small neighborhood with more than 2 million honeybees.
Wally World is soon to be powered by the atom. On Tuesday, Walmart announced a 15-year deal with Constellation, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear plants, for a chunk of the electricity coming from the Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The agreement included about 176 megawatts of wholesale supply from the two-reactor station southwest of Chicago, including 30 megawatts of expanded generating capacity through “uprates” — upgrades that allow operators to get more power out of an existing unit. Over the past two years, tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta, have bought shares of the power coming from nuclear power stations as the companies sought steady supplies of clean electricity for their burgeoning data centers. But the Walmart deal stands out as one of the first to involve a major brick-and-mortar retailer. “We’re constantly evaluating new capabilities and energy solutions that help ensure the electricity we rely on is dependable, responsibly produced, and built to support long-term growth,” Shayne Wahlmeier, Walmart’s senior vice president of energy, said in a statement.
The Trump administration just unveiled one of its biggest bets on nuclear power yet. The Department of Energy announced $17.5 billion in low-interest loans for utilities to pay for the equipment needed to order new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. The program marks arguably the most significant effort yet to reclaim U.S. control over its flagship reactor design. While the two 1,100-megawatt units completed at Southern Company’s Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in 2023 and 2024 were the first installed in the U.S., China has been building its own version of the reactors at an industrial scale for years. The program will support up to 10 reactors, including two per venture with as many as five utilities. The power companies, currently in talks with the administration, have not yet been named. But Dan Sumner, the chief executive of Westinghouse Electric, told The Wall Street Journal the deal “really kick-starts fleet-scale nuclear development in the United States.” As my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote last night: “I hesitate to praise the project's climate bonafides at the risk of discouraging the Trump administration, but it is worth noting that if this project were to succeed, it would be one of the largest state-assisted build-outs of zero-carbon electricity in recent American history. But it would still take some time to arrive: These reactors aren’t forecast to come online til 2035.”
Yet another behemoth solar farm has come online. On Tuesday, the developer rPlus Energies said its Green River Energy Center had started operations. The facility in central Utah with 400-megawatts of solar panels and 1,600 megawatt-hours of batteries is now the largest solar-and-storage plant within PacifiCorp’s six-state territory out west, including Oregon, Washington, California, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho. “Operation Gigawatt is about ensuring Utah has the reliable, homegrown energy needed to power opportunity for generations,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, said in a statement. “Green River Energy Center represents the kind of large-scale energy investment we need to deliver reliable energy, support rural Utah, and help power the next generation of prosperity across our state.”
The opening comes as solar is now generating more U.S. power than coal, as I told you recently.
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The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Exxon Mobil has the right to sue a Cuban-owned company to recoup more than $70 million in 1960 dollars from an oil complex seized by the Cuban government after Fidel Castro’s revolution. Havana later transferred the ownership of the refinery, terminals, plants, and service stations to Corporación Cimex, the state-owned conglomerate. The lawsuit could now see the oil major try to recover more than $1 billion in losses. “Today’s decision is a critical moment in a 60 year effort to be compensated for what the Cuban government illegally seized,” Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler told E&E News in an emailed statement. “It reflects two things: the merits of our argument and the fact that our company will fight a good fight for as long as it takes.”
The Trump administration understands the importance of refining cobalt — that’s why, as I reported last year, the Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency is pumping money into a startup that promises a new and cheap way to process the mineral. Canada’s Sherritt International started shutting down its Fort Saskatchewan refinery after the U.S. expanded sanctions on Cuba, halting exports of a feedstock supply needed for the plant in Alberta, Canada. The move, in addition to the Supreme Court ruling, come amid intensifying pressure by Washington on the Cuban regime.
California is once again following a New York trend. Just weeks after Albany sued to stop the Trump administration’s bid to pay TotalEnergies to give up its offshore wind projects, Sacramento is joining the litigation. “At a time when the country needs more reliable and sustainable power supply, the Trump Administration is busy using taxpayer money to strike backroom buyouts that make clean-energy projects disappear,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a statement. “California won’t stand idly by as the Trump Administration illegally strikes deals to kill offshore wind projects and replace them with more windfalls for his fossil fuel friends; we’re putting the Administration on notice that we intend to sue.”
Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, experts projected oil prices would go to $200 a barrel. But then… they didn’t. In fact, while gasoline prices rose in the United States, and Europe and Asia suffered higher costs, the resulting energy crisis wasn’t even as bad as what followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Why? China. The country seems to have absorbed the costs of Trump’s war of choice by releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from its strategic stockpile. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, an oil markets researcher and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. They discuss China’s massive (and quiet) intervention, why it’s “the most important thing we learned” from the Iran War, and what it means for the future of energy and geopolitics. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Mentioned:
China Oil Demand Doubts, Rory’s 2023 article about Chinese strategic stockbuilding
Previously on Shift Key: Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis, featuring Rory
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.