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On Musk’s successor, a House vote, and Spain’s blackout

Current conditions: Flash flood warnings remain in place today throughout the south-central U.S. • Israel has requested international assistance in fighting large fires that have broken out in the hills near Jerusalem • May in Europe is off to a warm start, with temperatures in the mid-80s in Paris.
1. Tesla board began search for Musk’s replacement: report
Tesla’s board initiated a search for a chief executive to replace Elon Musk, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday night. With stock prices “vaporized,” car sales floundering, and dealerships becoming targets for public frustrations with the government, the board reportedly warned Musk that he needed to shift his focus from reform efforts in Washington and back to Tesla. At the time of the conversation, which happened “about a month ago,” Musk “didn’t push back,” the Journal writes, although Musk subsequently told investors on Tesla’s earnings call last week that he’d be “allocating far more of my time to Tesla.” While the board had reportedly advanced its search for Musk’s successor to the point of having “narrowed its focus to a major search firm,” the current status of the effort to find Musk’s replacement “couldn’t be determined.”
Musk has complained to those close to him that he is “frustrated to still be working nonstop” at Tesla, and has made public comments about his compensation. He spent more than $250 million on Trump’s re-election campaign, although his company faces substantial hurdles due to the president’s policies, including a significant hit from tariffs and a loss of competitive advantage if California’s ability to set vehicle emission standards stricter than the federal government’s, which has generated significant revenue for Tesla in the form of compliance credits it’s sold to other automakers, is revoked.
2. House strikes down California’s clean truck rule, cueing up clean air vote
The House of Representatives voted 231 to 191 on Wednesday evening to revoke California’s ability to incentivize clean truck purchases, a prelude to Thursday’s vote over whether or not the state can set stricter auto emission standards than the federal limits. Thirteen moderate Democrats, including Henry Cuellar of Texas, Susie Lee of Nevada, and Tom Suozzi of New York, joined Republicans in voting to block California from requiring truck dealers to sell an increasing number of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles over time. In a separate vote on Wednesday, the House revoked another of California’s standard-setting capabilities, designed to cut down on nitrogen oxide emissions, which Republican Morgan Griffith of Virginia described as “an effort to truly vilify diesel engines.” The measures will now be sent to the Senate.
California’s authority to set these rules comes from waivers it’s been granted by the Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act, which otherwise compels states to adhere to federal standards. The Clean Air Act also allows other states to adopt California’s standards, giving the state extraordinary influence over the automotive market.
The marquee vote, however, will come on Thursday, when the House will vote to end California’s vehicle emissions waiver, which some critics have erroneously characterized as an electric vehicle mandate. Many are skeptical, however, that Congress has the authority to revoke the waiver under the Congressional Review Act. Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough has previously said the waivers do not qualify under the CRA and “ignoring that ruling would buck decades of precedent under presidential administrations of both parties, and would lay the foundation for potentially tricky legal fights down the road should a future president decide to grant California a new waiver,” journalist Clark Mindock writes for Landmark.
3. Debate rages over whether Spain’s renewable energy dependence caused Iberian blackout

Monday’s 18-hour blackout across Spain and Portugal has sparked a fierce and ongoing debate over whether the Iberian Peninsula’s heavy reliance on wind and solar energy is to blame. While the investigation into the cause of the blackout is still ongoing, we do know that at the time of the outage, Spain’s grid “had little ‘inertia,’ which renewables opponents have seized on as a reason to blame carbon-free electricity for the breakdown,” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin explains. In essence, gas turbines and nuclear plants have inertia that comes from spinning metal, such as a turbine, which can provide the system with a little more momentum if a generator drops off the grid. “Solar panels, however, don’t spin,” Matthew adds — hence the current line of attack by energy transition skeptics.
On Wednesday, the president of Spain’s national grid operator, Red Eléctrica, insisted that “linking what happened on Monday to renewables isn’t correct.” Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has likewise claimed that “Those who link this incident to the lack of nuclear power are frankly lying or demonstrating their ignorance.” But as Matthew writes, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to learn that a renewables-heavy grid struggled with maintaining reliability due to low inertia — nor is it an insurmountable challenge. Read more about how inertia may have played a part in the blackout here.
4. Equinor considers ‘legal options’ against the Trump administration over canceled wind farm
Equinor, the Norwegian state-owned energy company behind Empire Wind, is reportedly considering suing the Trump administration after the Department of the Interior canceled its Long Island offshore wind farm last month. As my colleagues Emily Pontecorvo and Jael Holzman reported at the time, Empire Wind was “the second fully permitted offshore wind project” to be targeted by the administration, and its potential cancellation represents “a huge blow to New York State’s climate and clean energy goals.”
Equinor has already spent nearly $2 billion on Empire Wind, which was almost a third complete at the time Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered an immediate halt to construction. The company is now “considering its legal options,” The Guardian writes, and “may take Donald Trump’s administration to court.”
5. India braces for potentially deadly slate of spring heatwaves
India is preparing for a series of heatwaves in May that could potentially strain power grids and lead to dangerous blackouts, Bloomberg reports. The warning — issued on Wednesday by the director general of India’s Meteorological Department, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra — follows what was already a difficult April in the country, with temperatures in New Delhi spiking above 100 degrees Fahrenheit earlier in the month. In Jaipur, temperatures have already broken 110 degrees, leading outdoor laborers to suffer from heatstroke. Mohapatra confirmed that above-average temperatures are expected to persist over most of the country between now and the onset of the monsoon season in June, except in some parts of the southern and eastern states. Spring heatwaves in India have been linked to climate change, with Gianmarco Mengaldo, a climate expert at the National University of Singapore and author of one such report, telling The Guardian, “Many of the events predicted for 2050 or 2070 are already happening. We underestimated the speed of change.
Ministers in the UK are considering a new rule that would require almost all new homes to have rooftop solar.
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The companies just launched a major VPP play.
For all the hype surrounding virtual power plants, they’re still a niche player on the U.S. electric grid. A new partnership between three of the biggest residential energy companies in the country — Tesla, Sunrun, and Renew Home — aims to recast VPPs into a leading role.
The companies announced on Wednesday that they have more than 16 gigawatts of dispatchable VPP capacity available today to deliver to utilities and data center developers throughout the country. That’s about the same as 16 nuclear reactors, except instead of generating power round the clock from a central plant, the companies aggregate unused electricity capacity from thousands of individual home solar and battery systems and programmable thermostats, and can make it available for several hours at a time.
Today, the companies bid these resources into electricity markets as a sort of bespoke grid service. A few times per year — often in the summer months when demand spikes — the grid operator in California might ask Sunrun to switch on its VPP to prevent a blackout. That means Sunrun’s rooftop solar and battery customers all either begin exporting excess power to the grid or rely more on their energy storage systems for their own power needs, reducing strain on the grid. Tesla operates similar programs, some in partnership with Sunrun. Renew Home, which spun out of Google Nest, does the same thing but with thermostats and water heaters, nudging temperatures on thousands of devices up or down during peak demand hours.
“A lot of our assets are enrolled in a contract where they can be used up to 20 times per year,” Paul Dickson, the president and chief revenue officer of Sunrun, told me. Now the company, along with its partners, are making the pitch to utilities and hyperscalers to view VPPs as 365-day resources, and more fully integrate them into their grid planning.
It’s a “turnkey” solution, the companies wrote in a press release, “deployable in months, not years,” that requires “no additional hardware, software, interconnection, water, or land usage for offtaking parties.”
VPPs also typically kick back some of the proceeds they earn from the electricity market to the residential customers hosting the solar panels, batteries, and programmable thermostats providing the power, meaning they can meet growing energy demand while helping to lower household energy bills. Sunrun and Renew Home paid out a combined $67 million in customer rewards last year.
About 60% of the 16 gigawatts the companies have available are tied to Renew Home’s enrolled devices, with the remaining 40% coming from Sunrun and Tesla’s solar and battery assets, Dickson told me. The capacity is also spread out geographically. There’s about 1.7 gigawatts available in Texas — the second largest data center market in the country, Dickson pointed out. There’s 300 megawatts available in Virginia, which the companies expect to grow to 500 megawatts by 2030.
“Unlike a traditional power plant that's fixed in size, this number grows every single day as the combined three companies continue to add additional capacity,” Dickson said. Sunrun alone plans to more than double its energy storage capacity by the end of 2028.
If utilities and large industrial customers buy the VPP pitch, the companies will be able to expand even more quickly, he added. If regulators or utilities come back and say, we’ll take your existing capacity today, and if you can add another gigawatt in the next year, here’s what we’ll pay, Sunrun could potentially reduce the upfront cost to customers to host the solar and battery installations, driving faster adoption.
The new partnership follows a similar announcement earlier this month from the VPP company Voltus, which signed a three-year agreement with Google. Voltus will provide up to 100 megawatts per year of capacity for Google in PJM, the country’s largest (and most constrained) electricity market covering much of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. In that case, however, Voltus is using the deal with Google to finance the VPP, with the capacity set to come online by 2027.
The Tesla/Sunrun/Renew Home group is simply announcing they are open for business — they haven’t signed up any offtakers yet. Dickson told me the companies wanted to “make everybody aware that there is this uncontracted capacity, and make sure that it goes to the place that it can be most impactful.” Wednesday’s announcement is accompanied by a live map that shows where the capacity is. The companies did, however, already bid over a gigawatt of capacity into PJM, the larger energy market that Virginia is a part of, as part of its emergency procurement to meet near-term load growth in the region, and are waiting to hear if they were selected.
Last year, the electrification advocacy group Rewiring America published a paper arguing that hyperscalers could free up grid capacity for at least a third of the load growth expected from data centers if they paid for residential households to get heat pumps. All of that capacity would simply be the result of swapping inefficient appliances for more efficient versions, reducing the overall energy use of the homes. If hyperscalers also financed residential solar and storage upgrades, they could more than meet data center demand, the report posited.
That’s not how these VPP proposals are going to work — residential customers will still have to pay something to Sunrun and Tesla for their solar panels and batteries. But Ari Matusiak, the founder and CEO of Rewiring America, told me he viewed these new VPP partnerships as a step in that direction. Today, energy markets are largely bifurcated between residential market activity and large industrial customers. “Where we are going is toward a world where we think about the household as actual energy infrastructure and not simply an end of the line billpayer,” he said. “Once you start doing that, it changes the economics of how those household upgrades are treated and what the opportunities are.”
Current conditions: The warehouse fire in Boyle Heights is raging for a third day, spewing dark smoke over the Downtown Los Angeles skyline • The death toll from Western Europe’s heatwave has reached into the dozens • An 18-wheeler carrying more than 400 beehives overturned in eastern Texas and filled a small neighborhood with more than 2 million honeybees.
Wally World is soon to be powered by the atom. On Tuesday, Walmart announced a 15-year deal with Constellation, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear plants, for a chunk of the electricity coming from the Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The agreement included about 176 megawatts of wholesale supply from the two-reactor station southwest of Chicago, including 30 megawatts of expanded generating capacity through “uprates” — upgrades that allow operators to get more power out of an existing unit. Over the past two years, tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta, have bought shares of the power coming from nuclear power stations as the companies sought steady supplies of clean electricity for their burgeoning data centers. But the Walmart deal stands out as one of the first to involve a major brick-and-mortar retailer. “We’re constantly evaluating new capabilities and energy solutions that help ensure the electricity we rely on is dependable, responsibly produced, and built to support long-term growth,” Shayne Wahlmeier, Walmart’s senior vice president of energy, said in a statement.
The Trump administration just unveiled one of its biggest bets on nuclear power yet. The Department of Energy announced $17.5 billion in low-interest loans for utilities to pay for the equipment needed to order new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. The program marks arguably the most significant effort yet to reclaim U.S. control over its flagship reactor design. While the two 1,100-megawatt units completed at Southern Company’s Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in 2023 and 2024 were the first installed in the U.S., China has been building its own version of the reactors at an industrial scale for years. The program will support up to 10 reactors, including two per venture with as many as five utilities. The power companies, currently in talks with the administration, have not yet been named. But Dan Sumner, the chief executive of Westinghouse Electric, told The Wall Street Journal the deal “really kick-starts fleet-scale nuclear development in the United States.” As my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote last night: “I hesitate to praise the project's climate bonafides at the risk of discouraging the Trump administration, but it is worth noting that if this project were to succeed, it would be one of the largest state-assisted build-outs of zero-carbon electricity in recent American history. But it would still take some time to arrive: These reactors aren’t forecast to come online til 2035.”
Yet another behemoth solar farm has come online. On Tuesday, the developer rPlus Energies said its Green River Energy Center had started operations. The facility in central Utah with 400-megawatts of solar panels and 1,600 megawatt-hours of batteries is now the largest solar-and-storage plant within PacifiCorp’s six-state territory out west, including Oregon, Washington, California, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho. “Operation Gigawatt is about ensuring Utah has the reliable, homegrown energy needed to power opportunity for generations,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, said in a statement. “Green River Energy Center represents the kind of large-scale energy investment we need to deliver reliable energy, support rural Utah, and help power the next generation of prosperity across our state.”
The opening comes as solar is now generating more U.S. power than coal, as I told you recently.
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The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Exxon Mobil has the right to sue a Cuban-owned company to recoup more than $70 million in 1960 dollars from an oil complex seized by the Cuban government after Fidel Castro’s revolution. Havana later transferred the ownership of the refinery, terminals, plants, and service stations to Corporación Cimex, the state-owned conglomerate. The lawsuit could now see the oil major try to recover more than $1 billion in losses. “Today’s decision is a critical moment in a 60 year effort to be compensated for what the Cuban government illegally seized,” Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler told E&E News in an emailed statement. “It reflects two things: the merits of our argument and the fact that our company will fight a good fight for as long as it takes.”
The Trump administration understands the importance of refining cobalt — that’s why, as I reported last year, the Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency is pumping money into a startup that promises a new and cheap way to process the mineral. Canada’s Sherritt International started shutting down its Fort Saskatchewan refinery after the U.S. expanded sanctions on Cuba, halting exports of a feedstock supply needed for the plant in Alberta, Canada. The move, in addition to the Supreme Court ruling, come amid intensifying pressure by Washington on the Cuban regime.
California is once again following a New York trend. Just weeks after Albany sued to stop the Trump administration’s bid to pay TotalEnergies to give up its offshore wind projects, Sacramento is joining the litigation. “At a time when the country needs more reliable and sustainable power supply, the Trump Administration is busy using taxpayer money to strike backroom buyouts that make clean-energy projects disappear,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a statement. “California won’t stand idly by as the Trump Administration illegally strikes deals to kill offshore wind projects and replace them with more windfalls for his fossil fuel friends; we’re putting the Administration on notice that we intend to sue.”
Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, experts projected oil prices would go to $200 a barrel. But then… they didn’t. In fact, while gasoline prices rose in the United States, and Europe and Asia suffered higher costs, the resulting energy crisis wasn’t even as bad as what followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Why? China. The country seems to have absorbed the costs of Trump’s war of choice by releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from its strategic stockpile. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, an oil markets researcher and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. They discuss China’s massive (and quiet) intervention, why it’s “the most important thing we learned” from the Iran War, and what it means for the future of energy and geopolitics. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Mentioned:
China Oil Demand Doubts, Rory’s 2023 article about Chinese strategic stockbuilding
Previously on Shift Key: Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis, featuring Rory
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.