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On solar manufacturing, New England gas, and Pacific Northwest geothermal

Current conditions: The Pacific just can’t catch a break this hurricane season as forecasters warn that a new tropical development called Invest 96E could form in the next two days off Baja California, right behind Hurricane Lowell • In Indonesia, the wildfires blazing through the peatlands and forests of Borneo and Sumatra are now emitting by far the most carbon dioxide of any blazes in the world • A late-summer heat wave is sending temperatures along the California coastline beyond 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week.
When Alphabet inked its first nuclear deal in 2024, the Google parent company opted to back a next-generation, fluoride salt-cooled reactor startup called Kairos Power. Six months later, the tech behemoth contracted Elementl Power, a nuclear project developer that works with all kinds of reactors, to scout locations for deploying novel atomic technologies. Last October, Google broadened its approach to focus on large-scale reactors that either already existed or were under development. The company eyed financing the construction of the abandoned Westinghouse AP1000s planned for the V.C. Summer plant in South Carolina before the project went under nearly a decade ago. Then Google and NextEra began laying the groundwork to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear station, Iowa’s only such plant, which shut down in 2020. As I told you on Tuesday, that latter deal took a major step forward when the Department of Energy pledged $1.9 billion toward bringing the single 615-megawatt reactor back online.
Now Google is exporting its strategy to Europe. On Wednesday, the giant announced a 22-year power purchase agreement with the Finnish utility Fortum Oyj to extend the life of the Loviisa nuclear station by buying as much as 50% of its electricity from 2030 to 2049. The contract — the first of its kind in Europe to provide for direct power purchases between a specific power plant and a hyperscaler — starts in 2028.
The deal is part of a broader $15.1 billion investment into artificial intelligence infrastructure throughout Finland over the next two years, and will direct roughly $1.1 billion toward the plant’s relicensing. “Long-term partnerships like the one between Fortum and Google are essential to making that happen, especially in today’s uncertain market environment characterized by low visibility and highly volatile electricity prices,” Fortum CEO Markus Rauramo said in a statement. In a text message last night, Emmet Penney, the director of energy and infrastructure at the Foundation for American Innovation, told me it was once “fashionable to say that nuclear was dead in the West, that we could only look on as nuclear slouched toward its demise and irrelevance.” Now, however, “Google is doing the world a favor by showing why and how that view was wrong” by demonstrating willingness to put its money where its mouth is to expand the power supply, he said. “Some things are fads, but nuclear is never out of season.”
Global investments in manufacturing clean technology fell 14% in the first quarter of 2026 and another 7% in the second three-month window, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group’s Clean Investment Monitor released Thursday of the first half of this year. For the first time, China’s share of green manufacturing investments dipped below a third, marking a significant decline from its peak of over 71% in 2023. A major drop in the expansion of solar panel factories accounted for much of the slowdown. Investments in new factories fell by 83% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the peak in the last three months of 2023. China accounted for 94% of the decline. But China’s contraction came with expansion elsewhere. India, for example, saw solar factory investments accelerate from 5% to 48%, making it the largest net contributor for the past four quarters. Solar manufacturing is expanding in the U.S., and the Department of Commerce’s new import duties on the polysilicon needed to make most panel components should help that continue. But the overall picture for clean energy investment, as my colleague Emily Pontecorvo described in the spring, is mixed.
There are green shoots, however. While the amount of capital spent on construction of new manufacturing and industrial plants slowed, the value of such investments rose 10% in the first quarter of this year and held steady in the second quarter, breaking a 10-quarter streak of declines in announced investments. The bulk of the deals were in critical minerals, wind, sustainable aviation fuel, batteries, and — yes — solar. But there’s also more coal. On Thursday morning, the International Energy Agency forecast global coal demand to reach a record high of nearly 9 billion metric tons this year.
The U.S. has enough solar panels in operation today to power more than 50 million American homes, representing over a third of households. That’s according to the latest market analysis conducted by the consultancy Wood Mackenzie on behalf of the Solar Energy Industries Association and released early this morning. Solar developers added 11.4 gigawatts of generating capacity in the second quarter of 2026, a 45% increase from the same period last year and 43% increase from the first three months of this year. Most of that new capacity came from utility-scale projects, which added 9.6 gigawatts — a 61% year-over-year leap. “Solar and storage have grown to a scale most Americans have yet to fully realize and we simply can’t meet America’s growing energy needs without these technologies,” Tim Pawlenty, the chief executive of the solar industry’s leading trade group, said in a statement.
It’s a milestone for solar’s expansion, and highlights the competitiveness of the technology despite the Trump administration’s crackdown on renewables it criticizes as too weather dependent. But it’s only a description of capacity. It’s virtually impossible for all the solar panels in the country to produce power at the same time, and the swings in electricity production are ultimately what draw criticism from those who instead push for generating stations that can pump out power at all times of day. That, in my view, makes the most important signal in the report the speed of the growth, demonstrating how quickly solar can come online and serve surging demand.
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Yesterday I told you that a federal court overturned the water permits New Jersey issued for construction of a pipeline to carry more natural gas into the Northeast, delivering a blow to the pipeline push the region is gearing up for as winter energy demands increasingly become what my colleague Matthew Zeitlin described bluntly last year as “a problem.” But there’s some good news, via the latest analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Enough cheap gas is flowing into New England at a moment when consumption is relatively low to push down prices. Natural gas prices at Algonquin Citygate, a trading and pricing hub in Boston that averages out what New England is paying for the fuel, are now trading at a discount compared to the main U.S. benchmark, the Henry Hub. Prices at Algonquin Citygate averaged 43 cents per million British thermal units less than Henry Hub from April through July. Part of the price drop came from a drop in demand as home heating fell off during the summer and solar generation increased during longer sunny days. Increased supply from Appalachia was another factor, as was a spike in imports from Canada.
Emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and agriculture are widely recognized as the primary drivers behind rising global temperatures. But scientists have long warned that, as the planet grows hotter, natural feedback loops will begin to pump more emissions into the atmosphere, from methane seeping out from decaying ancient material in thawing permafrost or carbon dioxide spewing from infernos like those scorching Indonesia’s biggest islands. A new study suggests that those warming-induced greenhouse gases from natural sources could amplify global warming by 20% to 30% this century, adding as much 0.4 degrees Celsius to the global temperature average. The authors of the study, published early Thursday morning in the journal Environmental Research Letters, billed it as the largest effort to date to quantify the combined impact of carbon dioxide and methane from permafrost thaw, wildfires, wetlands, and inland waterways. Permafrost thaw, however, comprises roughly half the projected emissions. The authors came from Stanford University, Woodwell Climate Research Center, research nonprofit Spark Climate Solutions, and the advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund. Even if emissions from human activities reached net zero, greenhouse gases could create feedback loops that raise global temperatures by at least 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. A higher emissions scenario could be twice that much warming.
“The results are a wake-up call, and it’s imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies,” Robert Jackson, the Stanford University professor and chair of the Global Carbon Project who co-authored the paper, said in a statement.
The Pacific Northwest is poised for a big geothermal push. Hexagon Energy, an independent energy developer, and timber and wood giant Weyerhaeuser Company just inked a strategic partnership that will clear the way for geothermal projects across the latter company’s vast property portfolio in Oregon and Washington. “Geothermal energy represents an emerging opportunity to provide clean and reliable, around-the-clock power, and our ownership presents a unique platform to evaluate that potential in the Pacific Northwest,” Kendall Fountain, Weyerhaeuser’s vice president of energy and natural resources, said in a statement. Once built, the projects are expected to generate up to 3 gigawatts of power.
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Current conditions: For the first time since 1914, the Atlantic hurricane season may pass without any major hurricanes, per an AccuWeather forecast • From Phoenix to Dallas, flood watches are in effect as the remnants of Hurricane Polo stretch inland from the Pacific through the Southwest • Surigae, now upgraded to a “severe” tropical storm, is set to slam into Japan’s Izu Islands, a partially populated archipelago in the same municipality as Tokyo.
The Department of Energy has ordered the release of 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as diesel surpasses $6.50 per gallon and Texas proclaims a statewide “disaster” over soaring prices. The move, which Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said would “stabilize the market,” comes as the Trump administration weighs whether to temporarily ban exports of diesel, a radical step that might only slightly lower American prices while sending Europe’s fuel costs skyrocketing, as the chief executive of the continent’s No. 2 oil company cautioned in a Bloomberg interview this week. The oil is expected to be a loan from the stockpile that would, Wright said, ultimately save Americans more than $3 billion. The transaction follows the same approach the Trump administration has taken since agreeing to distribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back in March, when the war with Iran began. Had the administration instead sold the barrels through an emergency drawdown instead of a trade, as it did previously, and simultaneously structured the deal to allow it to buy back oil at the lower prices the futures market is trading at presently, the Energy Department could have significantly increased its profits. That’s the finding of a policy memo from the think tank Employ America that I told you about a few weeks ago. The profit could, in turn, be used to invest in America’s fuel stockpile, clearing some of the $230 million backlog of physical repairs needed on the infrastructure that stores the crude. “The choice to deliver more barrels is fraught, but with that decision made, the administration missed an opportunity to set up the SPR for long-term success,” Arnab Datta, Employ America’s managing director of policy implementation, told me in a text message last night. “I hope they consider creative options to do so moving forward.”
Meanwhile, oil is actually flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. “Iran’s regime has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz,” energy investor Alexander Stahel wrote in a lengthy post on X. The U.S. military’s naval escorts and the United Arab Emirates’ commitment to circumventing Iran’s blockade are returning the critical waterway to “normal,” as my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote. Over text message last night, I asked an energy trader if this meant we were winning. “I’d say we’re losing less than we had been,” they said. “If Iran hadn’t gotten the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and seize the Red Sea, we’d definitely be.” Big if!
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham emerged triumphant from the Labour Party’s recent political implosions after he established himself as a pragmatic left-wing populist during his time as mayor of Manchester — drawing frequent comparisons to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Now Burnham is demonstrating what his brand of “business-friend socialism” means in energy. On Tuesday, Downing Street announced the launch of Great British Grid, a new subsidiary of the state-owned Great British Energy, designed to compete with private companies for investments in the power grid. “We have a cost crisis. We all know it,” Burnham said in a speech, according to The Guardian, which broke news of GB Grid. “The price of energy is crippling for businesses, and British bill payers pay some of the highest energy costs in Europe. We have an energy system where prices are dictated in markets miles away, while families and businesses here shoulder the costs. Once again, the British public has lost control.” His answer? Reverse what he called “40 years of neoliberalism.” Over here on this side of the pond, we are waiting to see what’s in the deal the Senate has brokered to ease federal permitting, one of many hurdles to building new transmission lines in America. The text of the agreement is due out later today.
Down in the South Atlantic, things are heating up in the Falkland Islands, even as temperatures outside remain low. The archipelago has never had a native population — as far as anyone can tell, the longest-lasting settled population has been the mostly British herders and fishers who have voted repeatedly to stay under the British crown. That didn’t stop Argentina, which has claimed what it calls Las Malvinas for centuries, from launching an invasion in 1983, in which the British military won a decisive victory. Now that the sleepy Falklands are preparing to drill oil wells in the offshore economic zone surrounding the islands, Buenos Aires is waging what one Falklander described to the Financial Times as “economic warfare.” Instead of Union Jacked Sea Harriers and Argentinian light cruisers doing the combat, this time Argentina is limiting trade, isolating the Falklands. “We’re just a few thousand people trying not to get blown off a rock,” local radio host Ronnie MacLennan Baird told the newspaper. “We just want to get on with our lives.”

Lots of solar developers are promising to compete with nuclear, geothermal, and hydro plants in generating the type of electricity that matches today’s favored buzzwords of “24/7,” “clean,” and “baseload” by pairing panels with batteries. Few companies, for obvious reasons, actually mean generating solar energy all day and night. Virtus Solis Technology, on the other hand, is promising to pioneer a method for delivering solar power generated from panels affixed to satellites in space, capable of angling at every hour to meet the sun’s rays and beaming wireless power back down to Earth. It’s hardly the only developer reaching for solar in space. But the Troy, Michigan-based startup is the first to get someone to agree to buy that electricity. On Wednesday, the company inked its first power purchase agreement to sell electricity from its debut, 100-megawatt solar satellite to the Chicago-based data center developer Brae Systems over the next 20 years. Virtus Solar called it the “first in a series of commercial offtake agreements” expected in the next several months. As part of the deal, Virtus Solar will build a “dedicated terrestrial receiving station to be constructed in Illinois.” The contract includes an option to increase capacity to 250 megawatts within three years of commercial operations. “Securing a direct 20-year supply of firm, clean power from Virtus Solis ensures our GPU infrastructure operates with predictable power costs and zero carbon emissions, completely insulated from terrestrial grid curtailment,” Brae Systems CEO Vishnu Indukuri said in a statement.
Other frontier energy sources have evolved quickly from plans to deals. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, the current frontrunner in America’s fusion startup race, signed its inaugural power purchase agreement with Google last year. Now the spinout from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is attracting institutional investors, as my colleague Katie Brigham has written, and inching closer to building out its supply chain. On Wednesday morning, the company announced what it called a “landmark supply agreement” with the Japanese industrial giant Fujikura to buy more than 6,200 miles of high-temperature superconducting tape to help build CFS’ doughnut-shaped ARC fusion reactors.
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As of now, the European Union is set to start forcing foreign oil and gas companies to monitor and submit data on their methane emissions or face financial penalties. But Brussels is now considering delaying the methane reporting rules by as much as a year as tight fuel supplies send prices ever higher amid the twin energy shocks from the wars in Iran and Ukraine. On Tuesday, Reuters and OilPrice.com reported that EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen had confirmed that officials are examining whether to postpone the provisions. The statement came days after Jorgensen made a similar remark to Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, Jorgensen’s native Denmark is heeding the former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernie Moniz’s call to invest more in clean fuels. On Tuesday, Hydrogen Insight reported that the country planned to increase its budget for building a network of dedicated hydrogen pipelines by $850 million.
When I used to think about the Rhine River, the first thing that came to mind was a song off my favorite album from high school. Written and performed by Beirut, the stage name of an American guy who galavanted around Europe making folksy songs that sounded straight out of an American teenager’s romantic notion of an Old World beer hall, the song was called “Rhineland.” Over mournful horns and a plunky mandolin, the song repeats a refrain: “Life, life was all right on the Rhine,” bringing to mind some kind of bucolic interwar existence in an ill-fated era of European history. Two decades later, I can’t tell which has changed more, me or the place I was imagining. The correct answer is probably “both,” but the clearest answer today is the latter. Levels at a key gauge of the mostly German waterway dropped to 1.2 inches below the threshold ship operators use to determine how much cargo their vessel can safely carry down the river without risking damage or running aground, Bloomberg reported. Despite a slight recovery on Monday, the cost of shipping diesel from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe hit a record €260 per ton (equal to just under $296), after more than doubling this month amid the aftershocks of the summer’s record heat waves and droughts.
The latest trouble comes as the Trump administration weighs the merits of a ban on diesel exports. At Heatmap’s Climate Week event last Wednesday, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright ruled out such a step. But Trump said he was “very seriously” considering the step, despite warnings from Goldman Sachs that doing so would raise prices in Europe.
A quick letter of recommendation to close out this morning’s newsletter. Back in 2018, I received a galley copy of a forthcoming book by a niche left-wing sociologist with a growing focus on climate change. The title — After Geoengineering: Climate Tragedy, Repair, and Restoration — struck me. Geoengineering and its associated technological ideas to adapt to a hotter world, such as carbon dioxide removal, were at that point very taboo in climate policy circles. The technology, assuming it even worked, posed what many saw as a moral hazard, a Pandora’s box that, if opened, would sap humanity’s collective will to do the hard work of mitigating fossil fuel emissions. At least, that was the dominant mode of thinking at the time. So, you can imagine, I found that book title provocative. Over the course of 288 pages, the author, Holly Jean Buck, bounced between dense but readable chapters of nonfiction explanations of the latest science behind various cutting-edge climate technologies and sections of fictional sci-fi vignettes. The stories painted a picture of life in the not-so-distant future. One that has stuck with me over the years is a vision of an Oklahoma rancher earning passive income by letting a state carbon disposal program pump captured CO2 into the geological formations beneath his property. I offer my sincere congratulations to Holly, who yesterday was named among the 20 recipients of this year’s MacArthur Foundation’s prestigious “genius grant.”
Novele is aiming to smooth out power consumption for commercial buildings, saving tenants money and easing grid strain.
Electricity is more expensive in times of peak demand — that’s simply a universal truth. But for many commercial building owners and tenants, their most energy-intensive minutes of the month can have an especially outsized impact on their electricity bill. That’s because of the “demand charge,” a fee based on a building’s single highest burst of power consumption, which can make up over 50% of a customer’s monthly bill. Likewise, shrinking those bursts would not only ease strain on the grid, but could also dramatically lower commercial users’ costs.
Or at least that’s Novele’s pitch. The startup, which makes 2-inch-thick, fire-safe lithium-ion batteries that mount on the interior walls of commercial spaces such as offices, hospitals, and big box retailers, announced Wednesday that it raised an oversubscribed $17 million Series A led by impact-focused investor Boisei Labs. The funding will help the company scale its AI-powered battery system, which networks batteries placed throughout a building and uses software to predict impending spikes in power demand. Just before the peak hits, the system can automatically switch the building from grid power to battery power, helping the customer avoid those costly demand charges.
“We learn how the building consumes power, but we’re also taking into account other considerations, like what day of the week it is, how the building is occupied, when it’s being used, what’s happening with the weather conditions,” Novele’s co-founder and CEO Charles Conwell told me.
Of course, battery storage for commercial customers is nothing new. Tesla, for one, has long sold large batteries like its Megapack, along with software designed to help businesses manage and reduce peak demand. But unlike these larger outdoor systems, Novele designed its thin panels for installation inside occupied spaces like hospital hallways and offices, distributing the batteries throughout a building while operating them as a single, coordinated system.
The systems are custom designed, so Novele told me it couldn’t provide an overall cost estimate. But Conwell told me the batteries typically have a 20- to 40-month payback period, the timeframe in which a customer’s electricity bill savings should eclipse the system’s upfront cost. (The company also offers financing options that allow customers to spread out that cost over time.) And while customers may sign up for the cost savings, there are major decarbonization benefits, too. So-called peak-shaving can reduce the need for peaker plants — natural gas facilities that only fire up when demand is highest. These plants are typically among the grid’s most carbon-intensive assets, as they’re designed to ramp up quickly rather than operate efficiently for long periods.
These automated batteries could also enable commercial buildings to participate in virtual power plant programs, which ease strain on the grid by cutting energy use during periods of high demand or by tapping assets like batteries to send power back to the grid. Using stored energy when needed, Conwell explained, is better than typical demand response initiatives, which often require tenants to change their routines — e.g. when they run the dishwasher or charge an EV — to accommodate the grid. That approach, he said, is either “ineffective or doesn’t make the tenants very happy.”
As the company scales, it also envisions building a portfolio of properties that, if they have “a dense enough footprint,” could work in concert to form their own virtual power plant of sorts, Conwell said.
In the near term, however, Novele plans to use its Series A to expand its team, install more systems, and further develop its software. It’s particularly focused on markets where electricity costs are already high or climbing fast, such as California, New York, New England, and parts of the PJM power market. In PJM in particular, record-high capacity prices — largely driven by data center demand — are pushing electricity bills to new heights.
The company says it has already installed batteries for several Fortune 50 customers, though it’s keeping the identities of these early adopters under wraps. Conwell told me that there’s also “a bunch of installations that are in progress,” and that in the coming year, the company will be working toward making the process of purchasing, installing, and operating Novele’s system as seamless as possible.
Once that foundation is in place, Conwell sees an opportunity to help usher in a more responsive, intelligent future for the built environment. “If you get the infrastructure right, if you bring in the controls — the mechanical controls, the machine learning controls, and the artificial intelligence-driven controls — you start to be able to set the stage for a dynamic, autonomous building of the future.”
The former vice president of the United States joined us at Heatmap House for New York Climate Week.
Former Vice President Al Gore needs no introduction. He is, in a way, the original climate influencer. His film An Inconvenient Truth gave rise to a new wave of climate activism in the 2000s. It was one of the highest-grossing documentaries of all time upon its release, and it won an Oscar, a Grammy, and — for Vice President Gore — a Nobel Peace Prize.
He’s remained active in climate policy since then and leads the Climate Reality Project. He is also an investor and was a longtime director at Apple.
For this episode of Shift Key, Vice President Gore joined Rob for a live conversation at our Heatmap House event, part of New York Climate Week. He reflected on the 20th anniversary of An Inconvenient Truth, the existential risk of artificial intelligence, and what has surprised him most about the evolution of climate politics.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Let’s start by talking about 20 years ago, because 20 years ago, An Inconvenient Truth came out. I recently had cause to revisit the film, and I actually have to confess something. I was very excited when the movie came out, but I don’t think I’ve ever admitted this, and maybe this is the wrong audience to do it to: I was too stressed about climate change to actually watch it. Not that it was a daily anxiety, but I was like, “I can’t. There’s so many other things.” And so I actually watched it for the first time only recently.
I had the book, let’s be clear. I had the book.
Al Gore: A limited confession.
Meyer: Yeah, yeah. It was so fascinating watching it 20 years on, because there are some sections of it that I think you could give today. Not that little has changed — the science hasn’t, of course — but the way people think about it, the way people move from denial to doom, hasn’t changed in some ways. I wondered what surprised you most about the intervening 20 years since the film came out. It received a response that, I don’t know what you were anticipating, but it was certainly on a scale beyond what was expected at the time. And then there’s where we are today.
Gore: Well, when Laurie David first made the suggestion, here in this city, I gave an early version of my slideshow when we were promoting that movie. What was it, The Day After —
Meyer: The Day After Tomorrow?
Gore: The Day After Tomorrow. Was that it? Yeah. And they said, “Well, that’s fiction, isn’t it?” And I said, “Well, it’s not as fictional as the then-current administration was about climate.” But when she said, “This needs to be made into a movie,” I said, “You’re crazy.” As one of the early reviewers said, “Al Gore giving a slideshow — what part of that doesn’t scream hit?” So I was a skeptic about the enterprise, and I was surprised at the reception it got.
Really, the credit belongs to the scientists I was just channeling. The fact that everything they predicted has proven to be basically spot on is a credit to them. For the rest of us, the fact that they were so right then should cause us to pay more attention to what they’re warning us about now.
As for what has surprised me, it’s the ferocity and durability and massive continued financing of climate denial by the fossil fuel industry. There was a time during these last 20 years when they said they were going to be part of the solution, and a couple of them made some good-faith efforts in that direction. But then, like Steve Martin on the old SNL, they went, “Nah.” They decided just to give up the ghost and go full speed ahead on more and more fossil fuels. I think they’re losing as we are winning, but they’re hanging in there.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
Previously on Shift Key: Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Trump’s Pro-Nuclear, Pro-Fossil Fuel Agenda
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.