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On Fervo’s blowout, nuclear investment, and Indian solar

Current conditions: The 100-degree Fahrenheit temperatures in Spain won’t drop until Tuesday • Tropical Storm Domeng is barreling toward the Philippines, the country's second major cyclone this month • New satellite images show that Santa Rosa Island, the so-called Galapagos of California, is scarred from the wildfire that torched the landmass earlier this month.
The spending bill House Republicans put forward this week for the Department of the Interior comes with yet another blow to the offshore wind industry. The legislation the House Appropriations subcommittee advanced last week would impose a range of fees on offshore wind projects, including $7,300 annual fees for onshore inspection visits and $15,400 for a visual inspection of an individual turbine. Further physical inspections of a turbine or substation would total $72,800. The fees, E&E News reported, “could amount to much more than is paid by offshore oil companies for inspections, given that the language calls for per-turbine inspections and wind farms include many turbines.” In a statement, Timothy Fox, the managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, told the newswire: “This appears as another direct effort to constrain the offshore wind industry. The Trump Administration has already significantly constrained proposed offshore wind projects and may hope the inspection fees undermine the viability of projects already in service.”
It’s the GOP’s latest contribution to President Donald Trump’s effort to sentence the offshore wind industry to what I called earlier this month a death by a thousand cuts. The move comes as offshore wind projects keep coming online, despite the Trump administration pulling out all stops to try to thwart their development. The White House’s latest effort to halt construction on offshore turbines — paying off developers to abandon projects — is attracting increased scrutiny, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo has extensively reported of late.
Hot off the hottest initial public offering of the year so far (though soon to be eclipsed by SpaceX, no doubt), next-generation geothermal pioneer Fervo Energy has suffered a potential setback. On Thursday, Axios reported that the company had experienced a blowout at its first commercial power plant in Utah. The extent of the damage was not yet clear last night. But the accident — not uncommon at geothermal sites — could potentially delay the closely-watched project to build its debut plant at Cape Station in southwestern Utah. “From time to time, we experience operational incidents like any other prudent operator,” Fervo spokesperson Melissa Mahoney said in a statement. “Fervo contained the flow of fluid and is no longer experiencing a well-control incident. We would like to reiterate that there were no injuries, no environmental damage, no pause in Cape Phase I construction and commissioning, and there will be no material impact to either cost or schedule of the project.”
Still, things are looking bright for geothermal. The House plans to vote on a bipartisan package of bills next week designed to ease permitting rules on the renewable energy source lauded by Republicans for its synergies with oil and gas and by Democrats for its 24/7 output of carbon-free electricity. The package will include a mix of bills authored by lawmakers in both parties and passed in March via unanimous consent, according to Politico.
Until recently, the phrase nuclear renaissance has described something aspirational. But the real money is starting to flow into the once-moribund atomic energy industry. New data from the International Energy Agency pegged annual investment into nuclear energy at more than $80 billion each year now, with close to 80 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity under construction across 15 countries. The bulk of that is either in China or made up of Russian technology in countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey.
As I told you last month, America’s nuclear dry spell is over, with two new commercial reactors breaking ground in April. And companies are on something of a nuclear deal spree. Corporate power purchase contracts for nuclear power, meanwhile, are booming.
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This summer is going to be a hot one. But natural gas consumption for power production this summer will remain near recent highs, according to the latest outlook from the Energy Information Administration. Despite a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer, new generation from renewables will offset the spike and keep gas-fired generation relatively flat. That is, until next year. In 2027, the EIA expects electricity from gas to hit a new record.
The world’s most populous nation is also one of its most coal-addicted. But India is racing to build enough alternatives to offset its demand for a fuel so widely burned that major metropoles on the subcontinent are artificially cooled by the sulfur coal spews in the air. New data from the Indian consultancy JMK Research found that India added 14.2 gigawatts of solar energy capacity in the first three months of 2026, a 95% increase from the previous quarter. That includes 12.1 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and 2 gigawatts of rooftop solar units, PV Tech reported.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., new large-scale solar projects are advancing. The U.S. developer BrightNight announced this week that it had secured financing for its 120-megawatt Frontier solar project in Kentucky. “This milestone reflects not only the strength of this project, but also our ability to consistently bring complex projects from concept to fully financed reality,” BrightNight CEO Martin Hermann said in a statement.
It’s looking sunny in New York. On Thursday, the Empire State passed a bill to legalize plug-in solar panels that can go on renters’ balconies, clearing the way for the majority of city residents to harness the benefits of photovoltaics. “Balcony solar will reduce New Yorkers’ utility bills AND their emissions,” state Representative Emily Gallagher, the Brooklyn progressive who authored the legislation, wrote in a post on X. “It will dramatically expand who has access to the solar economy and strengthen the power of the renewable movement.”
Editor’s note: Updates with statement from Fervo.
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Current conditions: France just recorded its hottest day ever, with Wednesday’s temperatures soaring to just under 111 degrees Fahrenheit; nearly 50 people died drowning while seeking respite from the heat • A pair of 7.1-magnitude earthquakes struck Venezuela, collapsing buildings in Caracas • Wind has whipped the Cottonwood Fire, one of six wildfires raging in Utah, into a larger blaze now covering 60,000 acres — and it’s still at 0% containment.
New Jersey Representative Frank Pallone, the ranking Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce committee, joined calls for a national moratorium on data center construction ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s markup of a series of bills related to the buildout of infrastructure to support artificial intelligence software. In a statement, Pallone described the bills as a “useful first step,” but one that, “compared to the challenges the American power grid is facing,” amounts to “not nearly enough.” Rather, he backed a “national AI data center moratorium until we can find a way to ensure they don’t harm our nation’s air, water, and power bills.” Pallone’s new public position makes him one of the highest-ranking Democrats yet to back the idea, championed by the likes of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of halting permitting on new data centers in response to the growing blowback from voters.
Pallone’s shift comes in response to the Ratepayer Protection Act, which would enshrine into law the voluntary pledge tech companies signed with the White House to pay for grid costs from their server farms. Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote earlier this week that the bill was “not so much an anti-artificial intelligence or anti-data center bill, but rather a move to insulate further data center development from political pressure stemming from rising electricity costs.” When Pallone made his statement a day later, Matthew wrote: “Well, at least one influential lawmaker seems to agree with me.”
The Iran War has cost the average American car owner an extra $156 and the average SUV driver another $232 in gasoline costs, according to new data from the policy shop Third Way. But the newly mapped analysis, shared exclusively with me, shows that Republican-leaning states in the Mountain West and beyond paid some of the highest prices for a conflict. Alaska saw one of the biggest spikes, with gas prices rising by $1.40 per gallon, a 39% increase. Wyoming followed close behind, with prices soaring by $1.37 per gallon, a 50% surge. Prices in Utah, meanwhile, climbed by $1.30, or 47%. That stands in contrast to many big Democratic-leaning states. New York’s gas prices rose by $1.23, or 41%, while California’s prices went up $0.94, or 20%. That, of course, doesn’t reflect where the prices were already high. I just returned this week from a trip to Los Angeles, where gas was nearly twice as expensive as in New York City.
Century Aluminum, America’s largest primary aluminum producer and the developer behind the first new U.S. smelter in 50 years, has inked a deal with a green cement startup to supply a key raw material. Brimstone, known as a major player in the race to commercialize green cement, also generates alumina. On Wednesday, the startup unveiled a memorandum of understanding with Century Aluminum to establish a domestic “mine to metal supply chain” for aluminum made from scratch rather than scrap. “Foreign sources, including China, currently dominate global alumina production. Brimstone is bringing alumina production home and doing it at a globally competitive price,” Brimstone CEO Cody Finke said in a press release. “Brimstone is upending the massive global imbalance by producing alumina from rock quarried here in the United States.”
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Until the nation’s flagship reactor project came online and transformed Southern Company’s Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in eastern Georgia into America’s most powerful atomic electrical plant, Arizona’s Palo Verde Generating Station was the No.1 nuclear facility by size in the country. The desert state is now looking to reclaim its mantle. The trio of utilities Arizona Public Service, Salt River Project, and Tucson Electric Power said Wednesday they are continuing “to work together to explore adding nuclear generation in Arizona.” The next step, the companies said, is a siting study that’s expected to be completed within the next six months. The Arizona Corporation Commission, the regulator in charge of utilities in the state, is holding an informational workshop today.
Meanwhile, the developer behind Canada’s flagship reactor design — which, because it’s cooled with pressurized heavy water, can run on raw uranium — just submitted initial paperwork to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to start the licensing process to approve what’s known as the CANDU. Pronounced CAN-do and produced by manufacturer AtkinsRéalis, the reactor is the workhorse of the Canadian and Indian fleets and can be built reliably, but requires more maintenance than the light water reactors that run on enriched uranium and make up the entire U.S. fleet. “As the United States enters a new chapter in its civilian nuclear program, AtkinsRéalis is uniquely positioned, as the steward of CANDU technology, to help advance the country’s ambitious energy policy through proven, low-cost reactor technology with a world-class reputation,” Ian L. Edwards, the company’s president and chief executive, said in a statement. As I told you last month, the CANDU is at the heart of Canada’s new nuclear strategy.

The world needs a lot more copper. And while siting and building new mines takes time, two of the planet’s biggest producers are preparing to increase production at existing mines. On Wednesday, London-based Anglo American and the Chilean state-owned Codelco inked a deal to increase production through a joint venture at Los Bronces and Andina copper mines in the South American nation. The joint mining plan is expected to unlock 2.7 million metric tons of additional copper over a 21-year period, delivering an average of 12,000 tons per year. The increase comes with “minimal capital investment” and should bring the new supply online by 2030. “This agreement represents a more efficient and responsible way to develop one of the world’s leading copper districts,” Bernardo Fontaine, Codelco’s chairman, said in a statement. “It allows us to make better use of existing infrastructure, capture greater benefits for Chile, and move forward with a long-term vision based on operational excellence, sustainability, and the responsible use of resources.”
If green hydrogen is the stuff made with clean electricity and water and blue hydrogen is made with natural gas equipped with carbon capture, then the orange stuff is found in underground rock formations where naturally occurring gas forms and then is encouraged to continue forming through artificial means. Heatmap’s Katie Brigham did a good job of explaining the concept here. Well, now a French renewables developer FDE is promising to start producing orange hydrogen “by late 2028 or early 2029” after finding a naturally-occurring underground reservoir in northern France that can be tapped and stimulated to produce additional fuel, Hydrogen Insight reported.
How China saved the world from $200 oil.
Turn your mind back to early March, soon after Iran announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz. Energy experts told us to expect calamity.
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supply moved through the narrow waterway, they said, and we would not soon be able to replace it. Oil prices would rocket to $150 or $200 a barrel. The world faced the worst energy supply shock in history.
We braced ourselves. We waited. And then … it didn’t happen.
Sure, the global oil benchmark rose to about $115 a barrel. Energy prices increased everywhere, and Southeast Asia faced a real crunch. But the worst consequences never hit. Europe didn’t run out of jet fuel, we didn’t get $8 gas across the United States, and the global economy did not shut down. Why?
We can now say with confidence: China bailed us out (and itself out, too). Without fanfare, the country slashed its energy imports and conducted a massive release from its strategic stockpiles of crude oil and liquid fuels. It eliminated something like 5 million daily barrels of oil demand, or about 5% of global oil demand.
Although it might seem technical, the implications of that silent intervention are huge for geopolitics, climate policy, and the future of the oil market. That’s why it’s the topic of today’s episode of Shift Key, Heatmap’s podcast. I encourage you to listen to my conversation with oil analyst Rory Johnston as he walks me through the wonky details — how we know China did this (math and satellite imagery), whether it has a modern precedent (it doesn’t), and what it all means (potentially a lot). He calls this public discovery of China’s latent power “the most important thing” we learned from the Iran war.
Anyway, I won’t ruin the conversation. (You can listen to Shift Key for free on any podcast platform, by the way.) But I do want to mull some of the implications here. The most important, to my mind, has to do with market power.
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In oil markets, we often talk about “swing producers.” Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries can shift the global oil price not just because they oversee a large share of the world’s oil production, but also because they can flex domestic production at will. They can increase or decrease their own output to affect the global marginal barrel’s price, stabilizing prices (or hiking them) as needed. (This originates partly from geological luck; Saudi Arabia’s reserves seem particularly well suited to rapid ramp-ups or ramp-downs in drilling and pumping.)
That suggests a mirrored role: a “swing consumer.” What if a country had such large oil stockpiles that it could ramp up or ramp down its imports at will, such that it could move global demand for oil at the margin? Such a thing has never existed in the history of the global oil market, at least to my knowledge. America has experimented with mini-versions of this idea in the past; the Biden administration released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2022 to depress prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. Outside of oil, China already plays a similar role in many global mineral markets, single-handedly shifting global prices for iron, lithium, copper, and other commodities.
But China's actions over the past few months suggest that its domestic oil stockpiles might now be so big that the country can play a swing role in global liquid fuels markets. After President Trump announced that he had reached a deal with Iran, I reflected in this newsletter on the fact that the world now had two energy systems, at least in the transport sector: a legacy liquid fuels system and a rival electricity system. These systems’ supply is divided among the world’s powers. The U.S. is the largest oil and gas producer in the world, but China is the largest manufacturer of solar panels, EVs, and batteries.
Yet if China is also now the world's swing consumer of oil, it suggests the country now has much more influence over the world’s most critical energy inputs in any form — fossil, electric, or mineral — than we had once thought. That isn’t my only Heatmap-relevant takeaway from the Iran war. But it is one I suspect we will remember for years to come.
New Jersey’s Frank Pallone, ranking member on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, says “this simply cannot continue.”
It was just yesterday that I wrote about the Ratepayer Protection Act, a bill that would transform into law the voluntary pledge big tech companies signed with the White House to take on additional electric grid costs from their data centers. My argument was that it’s not so much an anti-artificial intelligence or anti-data center bill, but rather a move to insulate further data center development from political pressure stemming from rising electricity costs.
Well, at least one influential lawmaker seems to agree with me. The Democratic ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, New Jersey Representative Frank Pallone, called for a national data center moratorium before the Wednesday afternoon markup of a series of data center-related bills, the Ratepayer Protection Act among them.
Pallone described the proposals being discussed at the markup as a “useful first step,” but that “compared to the challenges the American power grid is facing, they are not nearly enough.” Instead, he called for “a national AI data center moratorium until we can find a way to ensure they don't harm our nation's air, water, and power bills.”
Pallone cited a slew of efforts in his home state to slow the rapid proliferation of data centers, including a resolution in Asbury Park calling for a statewide moratorium and the city of New Brunswick rejecting a planned data center project earlier this year.
“This simply cannot continue,” Pallone said of the pace of data center development. (When asked for comment, Pallone’s office pointed to his prepared remarks.)
Pallone is not the first Democrat to call for a data center moratorium, but he’s the moratorium supporter who is most closely involved in energy policy at the national level. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, two of Congress’ most prominent progressive Democrats, have called for a nationwide moratorium, sponsoring a bill that would enact “a reasonable pause to the development of AI to ensure the safety of humanity,” including a halt to data center construction until a laundry list of conditions were met related to both energy prices and AI safeguards.
The Democrat-controlled New York State legislature also passed a one-year data center moratorium earlier this month, although the bill is still sitting on the desk of Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, awaiting her signature or veto.
Politicians calling for moratoria are trying to catch up with a public that has quickly soured on data centers. A majority of the American public supports a nationwide moratorium, according to polling done by Heatmap, with 40% of respondents giving the idea their strong support.
One reason why Americans increasingly oppose data centers is that they blame the developments for inflating their electricity bills. When Heatmap polled this question last August, 28% of respondents blamed “the construction of new data centers” for rising electricity prices. When we asked again last month, 53% did.
Analysts have looked at electricity price increases in the past five to 10 years and found little consistent relationship with data center construction, though that is not necessarily true everywhere and at all times.
In New Jersey, which is part of the PJM Interconnection electricity market, prices have likely risen based on current and planned data center construction within a grid area that has long had trouble bringing on new generation or building out sufficient transmission. PJM’s independent market monitor has attributed $23 billion in added costs to “existing and forecast data center load” in the system’s capacity auctions.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill implemented a rate freeze almost immediately following her inauguration earlier this year after years of price hikes and rising bills. Average electricity bills in the state have risen from around $91 per month to $140 per month, according to the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub, while electricity prices have risen almost 52% in the past five years.
Pallone was skeptical that any intermediate steps have or could work to protect ratepayers.
“Promises by the data center industry and Big Tech that these facilities will bring down costs have fallen flat,” Pallone said at Wednesday’s markup. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s efforts to prompt regional electricity markets to overhaul their interconnection policies “may have promise, but it will take months, if not years, to come to fruition,” he said. The Ratepayer Protection Pledge, meanwhile, has “no enforcement,” and constitutes a “toothless promise from Big Tech.”
“Americans across the country have expressed concern and opposition to the rampant construction of AI data centers, and Congress should take this political groundswell seriously with a data center moratorium,” Pallone concluded. “That's what we need.”