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On Revolution Wind, mineral refining, and German antinuclearism

Current conditions: A megastorm is pummeling the Midwest with a blizzard and the Northeast with torrential rain that, in some places, will occur in intense bursts of more than an inch per hour • Triple-digit temperatures as high as 110 degrees Fahrenheit are coming for the Southwest in the next few days, weeks ahead of the historical norms • Days after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit Chile, a magnitude 5.3 tremor struck off the coast of El Salvador and Honduras.
Get ready to feel the pinch. With Iran promising to drive up the global cost of oil past $200 per barrel, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright issued a stark warning. During an appearance on ABC News’ This Week, the Trump administration’s energy chief urged Americans to prepare for belt-tightening. Gas prices have already risen $0.76 per gallon on average since the start of the war — and more than $0.51 just in the past week. GasBuddy said prices surged “at one of the fastest rates” in years. Prices may come down in the next few weeks, Wright added, but “there’s no guarantees in wars at all,” he said. “This is short-term pain to get through to a much better place.”
Revolution Wind is on. On Friday, the 704-megawatt offshore wind farm started pumping electricity onto New England’s grid from off the coast of Rhode Island. As the turbine array neared completion, the Danish developer Orsted was forced into battle against the Trump administration’s attempts to yank permits from the project — and won repeatedly, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote. “Revolution Wind is adding affordable, reliable American-made energy to New England’s grid, helping to meet growing energy demand and lower consumer costs,” Amanda Dasch, Orsted’s chief development officer, said in a statement.
That same day, Vineyard Wind 1, the first phase of the project owned by Avangrid and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners off the coast of Massachusetts, installed its final turbine, the New Bedford Light reported. “U.S. offshore wind continues to power forward,” the Oceantic Network, a pro-offshore wind nonprofit, said in a statement cheering the domestic offshore wind industry for “demonstrating its true potential every day.”
The Department of Energy is offering up to $500 million in funding to companies that refine and recycle critical minerals. On Friday, the Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation filed a notice of funding opportunity. The agency said it sent officials to Japan to meet with allies on critical minerals. “Critical minerals processing is a vital component of our nation’s critical minerals supply base,” Audrey Robertson, the assistant secretary of energy, said in a statement. “Boosting domestic production, including through recycling, will bolster national security and ensure the United States and our partners are prepared to meet the energy challenges of the 21st century.”
The Trump administration announced plans last month to build out a $12 billion mineral stockpile, as I wrote at the time. Reporting in the South China Morning Post last week suggested the U.S. could run out of key rare earths in just two months if China chose to completely cut off supplies. Add the U.S. government to the list of people covered under the headline Heatmap’s Katie Brigham put out last September: “Everybody wants to invest in critical mineral startups.”
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The Trump administration greenlit a $5 billion oil drilling project in ultradeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico despite what The New York Times described as “protests from Democrats and environmental activists who said the venture posed significant risks to wildlife and communities.” The project from BP would produce 80,000 barrels of oil per day from six wells starting in 2029 in an area of seafloor roughly 250 miles off the coast of Louisiana. Dubbed Kaskida, it would be the British energy giant’s second deepwater project in the Gulf since the Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010 set off the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

Natural gas production, meanwhile, hit a record in 2025, growing by 5.3 billion cubic feet per day, according to the latest analysis from the Energy Information Administration. Three regions — Appalachia, the Permian, and Haynesville in Louisiana — accounted for 67% of the total production increase and 81% of the growth.
Germany regrets phasing out nuclear power. More than half the country now wishes the government hadn’t shut down the last nuclear power plants in 2023, polls show. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the phaseout “a huge mistake” with “strategic consequences.” Ursula von der Leyen, the German politician who currently serves as president of the European Commission and the European Union’s figurehead, likewise described her native country’s atomic exit as “a strategic mistake.” Despite the rhetorical alignment, the government in Berlin is coming out against the EU’s nuclear expansion plans. In a statement last week, Federal Minister Carsten Schneider called nuclear reactors “high-risk technology” and said “setting up new reactors on a notable scale would require very large amounts of money that would then not be available elsewhere.” Rather, he said, “alternatives have long since been available,” such as wind and solar. “As far as Germany is concerned, instead of chasing a nuclear mirage, we will focus our resources on better, safer, and more economic alternatives,” he said. “Our country has become a much safer place thanks to our phase-out of nuclear power.” Soaring electricity prices and surging coal use suggests otherwise.
Switzerland, meanwhile, has not only halted its nuclear phaseout. Now the country is considering a bill that would allow construction of new reactors, NucNet reported.
As the world gets hotter, it’s going to be raining men. Well, at least it might be for the reptilian versions of The Weather Girls, the singers behind the 1982 hit. American alligator eggs incubated around 86 degrees Fahrenheit tend to produce females, while temperatures near 91 degrees yields males. But the effects of temperature on squamates, the large and diverse group of reptiles that includes lizards and snakes, had been largely overlooked. New research on leopard geckos, which is set to be published in Developmental Biology by a group of Japanese scientists, found that about 79 degrees is the best temperature for females, while about 90 degrees leads to males. The study “contributes significantly to the broader understanding of the evolutionary plasticity and molecular complexity by which environmental cues direct biological fate,” Shinichi Miyagawa, Tokyo University of Science professor who authored the study, said in a press release.
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New tariffs and price floors for imported polysilicon aim to protect U.S. producers from Chinese competition.
Almost exactly a month after President Donald Trump’s landmark tax law effectively eliminated a key incentive for solar developers to buy panels made in America, his administration is throwing a lifeline to manufacturers behind the nation’s fastest-growing and quickest-to-deploy source of electricity.
On Thursday afternoon, after the markets closed, the White House announced new tariffs and minimum import prices for imported polysilicon as part of an effort to prop up the domestic supply chain for the primary ingredient in semiconductors and solar panels.
The levies come in response to complaints from polysilicon makers that the dearth of U.S. factories demanding solar-grade polysilicon made it difficult to compete with Chinese giants who benefit from selling both the solar- and microchip-grade versions of the ultra-pure industrial material derived from quartz and sand. The companies made the petition under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which gives the White House the power to restrict imports and charge tariffs on imports that demonstrably impair national security.
The Trump administration will impose a 15% tariff on all imports and set baseline prices at which the levies would apply for each component in the solar supply chain. Polysilicon will have a minimum import price of $20 per kilogram. Wafers, the ultra-thin slice of crystalline silicon that acts as the foundation of a photovoltaic cell, and ingots, the silicon material before it’s sliced, will start at $100 per kilogram. Cells, the tiny silicon-based devices that absorb photons from sunlight and break away electrons that generate electrical currents, will have a minimum price of $0.22 per watt. Modules, the completed panels, are $0.38 a watt.
The majority of U.S. solar factories simply assemble wafers and cells into modules, leaving them reliant on imports. But the policy won’t hit all at once. The Commerce Department is giving companies 120 days before the restrictions kick in.
The agency will also set up an incentive program that allows manufacturers that make large capital investments in the U.S. to avoid the worst of the levies. Jeffrey Kessler, the Under Secretary of Commerce in charge of executing on 232 cases, pushed for the provision as a bid to avoid what happened when Europe attempted to protect its own solar manufacturers by setting a minimum import price meant to keep Chinese companies from flooding the market. That policy ended up subsidizing the very Chinese parent companies putting market domination ahead of profits back home.
Avoiding that outcome is tricky under any circumstances. China and the U.S. don’t have a tax treaty, which makes it difficult for American authorities to confirm a company’s ownership structure. The surest way to seal off the U.S. market is with 100% tariffs such as those imposed on Chinese electric vehicles.
In this case, the Commerce Department decided to allow companies with active plans to onshore the solar supply chain to apply for an exemption from the new trade rules. Ahead of the announcement, sources familiar with the talks listed South Korean giant Qcells, which just opened the nation’s largest integrated solar factory in Georgia, as one obvious example of a company that would pass muster.
Solar manufacturers applauded the move. “Today’s decision from the White House balances the reality of where America’'s solar energy manufacturing is today while advancing our collective ambition to onshore the entire supply chain from polysilicon to finished panels in the U.S.,” Andy Park, the global CEO of Qcells, said in an emailed statement. “American solar manufacturers are ready to rise to the occasion.”
The trade action “creates a market where wafer and cell manufacturing can happen in the United States, and companies can go fully vertically integrated,” Nick Iacovella, the executive vice president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a bipartisan trade association that represents manufacturing companies at every stage of the polysilicon supply chain, told Heatmap.
“What this does is cement a key input in the supply chain that’s critical not just for chips, but for the most efficient, best-performing solar modules,” he said. “We shore up our chip supply chain at a time when there is a greater urgency to derisk from China invading Taiwan — and also during a time when the AI data center boom is driving massive demand for new energy generation, with solar driving a lot of the new capacity coming onto the grid.”
The levies come a week after the Federal Communications Commission banned the use of new types of foreign-made inverters, the equipment needed to patch solar panels onto the grid. Analysts said the ban would have a limited effect on the solar industry, since it allows for the current models on the market to be sold. The purpose of that policy is to prop up domestic factories at a moment when Europe, despite its struggle to reindustrialize, is experiencing an inverter manufacturing boom.
Despite those intentions, multiple industry sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told Heatmap that trade restrictions alone would likely prove insufficient to prop up a domestic solar supply chain at the scale needed to minimize imports.
The latest data from the Rhodium Group found that new U.S. investments in solar factories peaked from the second half of 2022 through the first quarter of 2025. During that time, as Emily reported in May, the announced projects averaged more than $2 billion per quarter. At least 30 new utility-scale solar factories opened across the U.S. just last year.
Since then, development has plummeted. Investment in new solar factories announced fell to about $350 million in the first quarter of 2026, a drop of more than 80%.
By raising the price of panels overall, the Commerce Department is providing a particular boon to America’s leading solar manufacturer, First Solar. While the Phoenix-based panel-maker’s thin-film cell technology doesn’t use polysilicon, the price hike from the tariffs will give the company an edge by allowing the company to either raise its prices to match new industry-wide benefits or undercut its competitors. Investors in the company told Heatmap its recent bookings average sales of about $0.36 per watt.
Another clear winner is T1 Energy, which Roth analysts say “would eventually be a beneficiary once it ramps up its U.S. cell manufacturing, which is now expected to come online” next year. The company’s share price spiked more than 10% in after-hours trading, while First Solar was up more than 8%.
“There are a lot of people in the administration who support solar,” Iacovella said. “They just don’t want a bunch of Chinese solar panels.”
Still, he added, “this is all about the chip supply chain.” While the benefits to solar are welcome, “this is a two-for-one.”
The Trump administration has signed a deal with RWE, a German developer, to cancel more than 3 gigawatts of offshore wind near New York and New Jersey.
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There goes another one. The German energy developer RWE has signed a $1.2 billion deal with the Trump administration to give up its claims to develop offshore wind farms in New York, California, and Louisiana. The Trump administration has now bought out 12 offshore wind leases, paying energy developers $3.93 billion for the privilege of not developing renewable energy along the American coastline.
Today’s is the largest payout yet — and fittingly so, I suppose, because it is among the most damaging. As part of the deal, RWE abandoned its plans to build a more than 3-gigawatt offshore wind farm in the New York Bight. When RWE first leased that site in 2022, it paid $1.1 billion for it — the biggest offshore wind lease auction ever held in the United States.
RWE promised that the resulting facility, dubbed Community Offshore Wind, would generate 700 jobs and $3 billion in local economic activity. It would have been close enough to New Jersey and New York that its power could have flowed to either state, although no final power contract was ever signed. Now all of that is kaput.
In the eyes of some critics, RWE had overpaid for that lease — and in that context, the Trump administration has I suppose done the German developer a favor, bailing them out from a bad investment in a legally dubious manner. (New York’s attorney general is suing to block a similar payout to Total Energies.)
But even beyond that context, there remains one big problem with these deals — an issue even more glaring now than when Trump started targeting wind projects last year. It is that the United States — and especially the Northeast, and especially New York — needs as much electricity as it can get right now. The Trump administration is striving to bring new power demand online in the form of data centers, but cutting off new sources of generation if they fail to meet its aesthetic standards.
Anticipating this sensitivity, RWE’s press statement announcing the deal goes on to list major energy projects that it’s committed to in the United States. These projects all involve, coincidentally (or not), fossil fuels: They include a $900 million stake in a Louisiana liquified natural gas export terminal and a $300 million reservation for new natural gas turbines. (RWE implies, but doesn’t say outright, that it will build 15 natural gas peaker plants with these turbines.) When we asked for more details about these projects, and whether we should anticipate anything new, RWE immediately got back to us: “We are unable to discuss further details on the investments.”
Yet as RWE well knows, these projects won’t help solve a coming energy shortage in New York or New England. For one, the Louisiana LNG export terminal is, well, an export terminal: It will help move energy out of the country, not generate more of it at home. Those exports might boost Americans’ fortunes in a vague, long-term, balance-of-payments way, but they won’t keep a lid on anyone’s power bills (which, by the way, just hit an all-time high). More importantly, the 15 peaker plants that RWE cites are largely going to be built … in other regions of the country. If the lights go out on Houston Street, a new gas plant in Houston can’t help.
Americans paid $217 on average for electricity last month, according to Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub.
July is typically the season of high electricity bills, and this year is no exception.
Nationally, the average electricity bill spiked to $217, an all-time high, according to new data from Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub. That’s up from $177 in June, and $215 last July. Meanwhile, electricity rates were 19 cents per kilowatt-hour, virtually unchanged from June and slightly higher than July of last year.
Throughout the country, many ratepayers are seeing higher costs and charges in the portion of their bill covering the cost of power generation.
Once again, some of the most notable electricity price and bill trends were seen in the mid-Atlantic region, the heart of the data center boom and the anchor area of the PJM Interconnection. The region also includes Virginia, where Florida utility and energy developer NextEra is attempting to acquire the commonwealth’s dominant utility, Dominion.
In July, Dominion customers saw typical generation charges rise to $155 a month, up from $124 a year ago. Overall bills for Dominion customers were about $259 this past month.
The higher bills are in part due to the “fuel charge rider” that went into effect this past month to help recover about $1 billion in additional generation costs claimed by the utility. Those charges stem in part from higher fuel costs this past winter, when natural gas prices spiked to their highest level since the winter of 2022-23, Dominion officials said in a filing to the state’s utilities regulator. The MIT researchers estimate that the fuel charge added around $53 to July bills, up $12 from July of last year.
In neighboring Delaware, bills were $216 a month in July, a record high, while prices were around 19 cents per kilowatt-hour. Customers of the state’s main utility, Delmarva Power, saw a near 20% hike in the supply charge in their standard service offerings, as prices rose from around 16 cents per kilowatt-hour from last year.
The Delaware Public Service Commission voted at the beginning of last month to allow an interim rate increase of about $3 per month for the typical customer, which went into effect July 9. Soon after, Delaware Governor Matt Meyer signed a law giving the state’s regulators more discretion to reject putting certain utility costs into the rate base and thus limit subsequent price hikes requested by utilities. The governor’s office described the law as a mechanism “to prioritize prudent spending over unchecked cost recovery.”