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On geoengineering inching closer, Rivian writhes, and endless VC Summer

Current conditions: Tropical Storm Melissa is gathering enough strength to potentially reach Category 5 status as the cyclone tracks northward toward Florida and the Bahamas • Up to six storms are barreling toward the Pacific Northwest, threatening flooding from up to six inches of rain on Saturday • Parts of South Africa’s coast are roasting in temperatures above 109 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Department of the Interior unveiled a package of executive actions opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling and mining exploration, a controversial move that fulfills a decades-long ambition for industry. The decision marks what The New York Times described as “the latest twist in a long-running fight over the fate of the refuge’s coastal plain, an unspoiled expanse of 1.56 million acres that is believed to sit atop billions of barrels of oil but is also a critical habitat for polar bears, caribou, migratory birds, and other wildlife.” During his first term, in 2017, President Donald Trump signed a tax bill that required two oil and gas leases in the area, but the Biden administration later blocked those leases. “From day one, President Trump directed us to unlock Alaska’s energy and resource potential while honoring commitments to the state and local communities,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a statement. “By reopening the Coastal Plain and advancing key infrastructure, we are strengthening energy independence, creating jobs and supporting Alaska’s communities while driving economic growth across the state.”
The Trump administration has made industrializing the northernmost frontier state a key priority, approving a mining road though pristine forested lands and taking an equity stake for the federal government in the company aiming to extract minerals in the region. But the Environmental Protection Agency also yanked funding meant to help reinforce infrastructure in Alaska Native villages against warming-fueled floods, dismissing the money as left-wing ideologically driven “diversity, equity, and inclusion” spending, as I wrote in this newsletter. Those very communities were devastated by a typhoon earlier this month, displacing residents, with evacuees struggling to adjust to life in Alaska’s “concrete jungles,” the Northern Journal reported.
Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer has a big scoop this morning: Geoengineering startup Stardust Solutions is set to announce that it has raised $60 million in venture capital to develop the tools needed to artificially cool the planet by reflecting sunlight away from Earth. The company, led by a team of Israeli physicists, aims to spray aerosols into the atmosphere that will bounce energy from the sun back into space to balance out the effects of greenhouse gases. The technology is on track to be ready by the end of the decade. Lowercarbon Capital led the funding round, which is the company’s second, following a $15 million seed round in 2024. Rob’s story offers a measured assessment of the dangers of potentially geoengineering the atmosphere — and the threat of failing to do so when efforts to mitigate emissions are so far from where they need to be to preserve the climate norms in which humans evolved as a species. In a line that harkens to one of my favorite books, journalist Charles C. Mann’s environmental history of the global trade network that developed after Christopher Columbus’ arrival in the Americas called 1493, Rob notes that “the Earth has not been free of human influence for millennia,” and that “the world has over and over again been remade by human hands.”
“Stardust may not play the Prometheus here and bring this particular capability into humanity’s hands,” Rob writes. “But I have never been so certain that someone will try in our lifetimes. We find ourselves, once again, in the middle of things.”
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Rivian, the maker of luxury electric trucks and SUVs, slashed more than 600 employees, representing nearly 4.5% of its roughly 15,000-person workforce, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. “These are not changes that were made lightly,” Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said in an email to staff. “With the changing operating backdrop, we had to rethink how we are scaling our go-to-market functions.” The cuts were meant to help “profitably scale” the business as it prepares to launch its new R2 midsize SUV.
The move comes as electric automakers reel from the Trump administration’s elimination of the federal electric vehicle tax credit. Tesla, as I reported here yesterday, posted a nearly 40% drop in profits on Wednesday afternoon as the company lowered prices to keep costs to customers in line with what federal write-offs previously made possible. But as Andrew Moseman wrote in Heatmap, the lower prices came with stripped-down features.
The U.S. government has backed a new billion-dollar fund to invest in critical minerals along with the New York-based Orion Resource Partners and Abu Dhabi’s ADQ. The investment vehicle, dubbed the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, was announced Thursday with support from the federal International Development Finance Corp. The funding totals more than $1.8 billion, Bloomberg reported.
This is just the Trump administration’s latest foray into mining. The Department of Defense took the largest stake earlier this year in MP Materials, the only active rare earths producer in the U.S. Since then, the administration has taken stakes in other critical minerals projects, and considered similar ownership positions in companies developing rare earths in Greenland.
VC Summer, the project to build Westinghouse’s state-of-the-art AP1000 reactor in South Carolina, became such a financial boondoggle, utility executives went to jail; The final defendant was sentenced just last year. Yet the project — widely mocked as a billion-dollar hole in the ground — may end up built after all. Utility Santee Cooper officially notified regulators this week that it plans to execute a contract to restart the project.
The announcement, part of what Heatmap’s Katie Brigham called the “nuclear dealmaking boom,” came the same day Canada’s government put up $2 billion to back a small modular reactor project in Bowmanville, Ontario. The progress north of America’s border on new reactor technologies has drawn attention from potential Democratic presidential candidates in the U.S. When New York City mayoral contender Zohran Mamdani expressed support for building new reactors in the state during this week’s debate, Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego — widely discussed as a possible White House seeker — responded to the news in a post on X: “I am all for Nuclear power in this country but it would be quicker and cheaper to buy into the Ontario plant being built and coming online by 2030.”
Mining giant Fortescue has made a breakthrough. In its latest earnings call with investors Thursday, the Australian giant said it planned to replace the trucks that carry its ore with electric alternatives. “We’re not doing this because we don’t think our total cost of ownership is going to be less,” Fortescue CEO Dino Otranto said in a statement. “Of course, we’re doing it because of that.”
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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.