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On deepsea mining Saipan, geothermal oil deal, and Manila fears

Current conditions: Cyclone Nardelle made landfall three times in Australia in the past week and now it’s strengthening and preparing to return once again • The historic heat wave in the Southwest is expected to last through Friday, driving temperatures up into the triple digits across the region • Temperatures in Timbuktu, Mali, are nearing 110 degrees Fahrenheit today.
Just days after Orsted’s Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island began pumping electricity onto the New England grid, Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind farm started sending surges back to Virginia’s wires. The two projects are at very different stages. Dominion has so far switched on just one commercial turbine, while Orsted’s facility is nearly complete. Once finished, the 2.6-gigawatt project off Virginia’s coast will be the biggest offshore wind farm in the U.S. “This project is not just about energy — it’s about national security,” Representative Jen Kiggans, a Republican from the Virginia Beach area, told the Virginia Mercury. “Reliable, domestically produced power strengthens the resilience of critical military infrastructure, including our local bases, ensuring our forces can operate without disruption.”
The milestone marks a setback for President Donald Trump, whose efforts to yank permits from offshore wind projects have repeatedly failed in court. The White House did, however, notch a victory this week when the French energy giant TotalEnergies agreed to abandon two offshore wind projects in exchange for $1 billion and strong federal backing for new gas projects.
Applied Atomics joined the nuclear race this year promising to be “a developer and operator of full-stack nuclear power plants,” with the capacity to scale the size of its facilities from 100 megawatts to 1,000 megawatts to meet the needs of industrial customers. “Everybody’s excited about data centers, and we are too. We are fortunate that we are able to go after a few different industry verticals. So we’re focused on decarbonization of hard-to-decarbonize industries,” Benjamin Kellie, Applied Atomics’ founder and chief executive, told Heatmap’s Katie Brigham exclusively for this newsletter. “That includes data centers, but it also includes things like concrete and steel. It includes chemical plants and these established heavy industry players are a big focus for us.”
Kellie said the company already has more than 8 gigawatts of potential power purchase agreements and aims to produce its first electricity in 2030. Applied Atomics is “looking at four years for first power,” which it plans to get down to 24 months per module before eventually reducing the construction time to 18 months. “We are targeting $4,000 per installed kilowatt, which is a little bit north of natural gas but much lower than traditional nuclear. And that’s for first-of-a-kind,” he said. “Then nth-of-a-kind we see getting down to around the $3,000 per installed kilowatt range.” Counting the latest investment round, the company has raised a total of roughly $12 million in its first 12 months.
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The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has begun widening the scope of potential seafloor mineral leasing that could take place in the waters off the Northern Mariana Islands, one of America’s five populated non-state territories. Last week, the agency completed the “area identification” step for holding a lease sale in the outer continental shelf off the Pacific archipelago’s shores in what the trade publication gCaptain called “an early but consequential milestone that determines which tracts will move forward for environmental analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act.” While BOEM can’t authorize mining or commit the federal government to a lease sale, the latest step “effectively locks in the geographic footprint for further review.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, meanwhile, finalized a rule to fast-track permits for deepsea mining.
The Northern Mariana Islands, which are located near Guam, isn’t the only Pacific territory the Trump administration is targeting for mineral development. In January, NOAA announced plans to start surveying the waters around American Samoa, a South Pacific island where residents — who, interestingly, are the only territorial denizens who hold status as American nationals but not American citizens — have been looking for new industries to diversity away from the one tuna cannery that sustains much of the island’s economy.
In yet another sign of the synergies between next-generation geothermal and the oil and gas industries, the developer XGS Energy just inked a major deal with the drilling services giant Baker Hughes. On Wednesday morning, the two Houston-based companies announced a “strategic collaboration” that included an initial order for Baker Hughes’ engineering services to advance XGS’ planned 150-megawatt geothermal project in New Mexico. Once developed, the project is poised to supply electricity to the Public Service Company of New Mexico to support Meta’s data center operations in the state. “By aligning our technology with Baker Hughes’ expertise across subsurface, surface, and power solutions — and one of the most capable project delivery teams in the world — we’re demonstrating that XGS has the execution muscle and industrial collaborations required to deliver at scale for our customers,” Ghazal Izadi, XGS’s chief operating officer, said in a statement. XGS — which uses a closed-loop technology known as “advanced” geothermal, as distinct from the “enhanced” geothermal pioneered by fellow next-generation companies such as Fervo Energy — aced its field tests last year, as I reported for Heatmap. The company, as I reported last year, is also a favorite of the atomic energy industry, with the venture arm of the nuclear utility giant Constellation serving as a lead investor.
Over at the CERAWeek conference, meanwhile, Form Energy announced a deal with the data center giant Crusoe to deliver 12 gigawatt-hours of multi-day energy storage to support more artificial intelligence factories starting in 2027. The agreement “ensures access to Form Energy's 100-hour iron-air battery technology as Crusoe scales its AI infrastructure.”

With a fast-growing population and economy and few domestic energy resources, the Philippines already paid the third-highest electricity prices in all of Asia. Now the Southeast Asian nation has declared a national energy emergency to deal with the energy shock from the Iran war. The procedural step grants the government of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. new authorities to plan for issues such as rationing and prevent people from hoarding fuel. It may also spur on Manila’s plans to finally bring a nuclear power plant online in the country decades after a nearly complete facility was all but abandoned. As I told you back in January, the Trump administration provided funding to the Philippines to help it assess U.S.-made small modular reactors as a potential new grid resource.
It’s hardly the most urgent tragedy of the conflict, but here’s a statistic that illustrates the long-term destructiveness of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. In just the first two weeks of the conflict, the warring parties released almost 5.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases “by firing carbon-intensive weapons, powering fighter jets and ships, and bombing infrastructure such as oil storage facilities and civilian buildings,” researchers told Live Science. That’s already higher than all the carbon emissions Iceland produces in a year. If the emissions continue at the same rate for a year, the volume would be equivalent to the annual emissions of the 84 lowest emitting countries in the world combined.
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The companies just launched a major VPP play.
For all the hype surrounding virtual power plants, they’re still a niche player on the U.S. electric grid. A new partnership between three of the biggest residential energy companies in the country — Tesla, Sunrun, and Renew Home — aims to recast VPPs into a leading role.
The companies announced on Wednesday that they have more than 16 gigawatts of dispatchable VPP capacity available today to deliver to utilities and data center developers throughout the country. That’s about the same as 16 nuclear reactors, except instead of generating power round the clock from a central plant, the companies aggregate unused electricity capacity from thousands of individual home solar and battery systems and programmable thermostats, and can make it available for several hours at a time.
Today, the companies bid these resources into electricity markets as a sort of bespoke grid service. A few times per year — often in the summer months when demand spikes — the grid operator in California might ask Sunrun to switch on its VPP to prevent a blackout. That means Sunrun’s rooftop solar and battery customers all either begin exporting excess power to the grid or rely more on their energy storage systems for their own power needs, reducing strain on the grid. Tesla operates similar programs, some in partnership with Sunrun. Renew Home, which spun out of Google Nest, does the same thing but with thermostats and water heaters, nudging temperatures on thousands of devices up or down during peak demand hours.
“A lot of our assets are enrolled in a contract where they can be used up to 20 times per year,” Paul Dickson, the president and chief revenue officer of Sunrun, told me. Now the company, along with its partners, are making the pitch to utilities and hyperscalers to view VPPs as 365-day resources, and more fully integrate them into their grid planning.
It’s a “turnkey” solution, the companies wrote in a press release, “deployable in months, not years,” that requires “no additional hardware, software, interconnection, water, or land usage for offtaking parties.”
VPPs also typically kick back some of the proceeds they earn from the electricity market to the residential customers hosting the solar panels, batteries, and programmable thermostats providing the power, meaning they can meet growing energy demand while helping to lower household energy bills. Sunrun and Renew Home paid out a combined $67 million in customer rewards last year.
About 60% of the 16 gigawatts the companies have available are tied to Renew Home’s enrolled devices, with the remaining 40% coming from Sunrun and Tesla’s solar and battery assets, Dickson told me. The capacity is also spread out geographically. There’s about 1.7 gigawatts available in Texas — the second largest data center market in the country, Dickson pointed out. There’s 300 megawatts available in Virginia, which the companies expect to grow to 500 megawatts by 2030.
“Unlike a traditional power plant that's fixed in size, this number grows every single day as the combined three companies continue to add additional capacity,” Dickson said. Sunrun alone plans to more than double its energy storage capacity by the end of 2028.
If utilities and large industrial customers buy the VPP pitch, the companies will be able to expand even more quickly, he added. If regulators or utilities come back and say, we’ll take your existing capacity today, and if you can add another gigawatt in the next year, here’s what we’ll pay, Sunrun could potentially reduce the upfront cost to customers to host the solar and battery installations, driving faster adoption.
The new partnership follows a similar announcement earlier this month from the VPP company Voltus, which signed a three-year agreement with Google. Voltus will provide up to 100 megawatts per year of capacity for Google in PJM, the country’s largest (and most constrained) electricity market covering much of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. In that case, however, Voltus is using the deal with Google to finance the VPP, with the capacity set to come online by 2027.
The Tesla/Sunrun/Renew Home group is simply announcing they are open for business — they haven’t signed up any offtakers yet. Dickson told me the companies wanted to “make everybody aware that there is this uncontracted capacity, and make sure that it goes to the place that it can be most impactful.” Wednesday’s announcement is accompanied by a live map that shows where the capacity is. The companies did, however, already bid over a gigawatt of capacity into PJM, the larger energy market that Virginia is a part of, as part of its emergency procurement to meet near-term load growth in the region, and are waiting to hear if they were selected.
Last year, the electrification advocacy group Rewiring America published a paper arguing that hyperscalers could free up grid capacity for at least a third of the load growth expected from data centers if they paid for residential households to get heat pumps. All of that capacity would simply be the result of swapping inefficient appliances for more efficient versions, reducing the overall energy use of the homes. If hyperscalers also financed residential solar and storage upgrades, they could more than meet data center demand, the report posited.
That’s not how these VPP proposals are going to work — residential customers will still have to pay something to Sunrun and Tesla for their solar panels and batteries. But Ari Matusiak, the executive director of Rewiring America, told me he viewed these new VPP partnerships as a step in that direction. Today, energy markets are largely bifurcated between residential market activity and large industrial customers. “Where we are going is toward a world where we think about the household as actual energy infrastructure and not simply an end of the line billpayer,” he said. “Once you start doing that, it changes the economics of how those household upgrades are treated and what the opportunities are.”
Current conditions: The warehouse fire in Boyle Heights is raging for a third day, spewing dark smoke over the Downtown Los Angeles skyline • The death toll from Western Europe’s heatwave has reached into the dozens • An 18-wheeler carrying more than 400 beehives overturned in eastern Texas and filled a small neighborhood with more than 2 million honeybees.
Wally World is soon to be powered by the atom. On Tuesday, Walmart announced a 15-year deal with Constellation, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear plants, for a chunk of the electricity coming from the Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The agreement included about 176 megawatts of wholesale supply from the two-reactor station southwest of Chicago, including 30 megawatts of expanded generating capacity through “uprates” — upgrades that allow operators to get more power out of an existing unit. Over the past two years, tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta, have bought shares of the power coming from nuclear power stations as the companies sought steady supplies of clean electricity for their burgeoning data centers. But the Walmart deal stands out as one of the first to involve a major brick-and-mortar retailer. “We’re constantly evaluating new capabilities and energy solutions that help ensure the electricity we rely on is dependable, responsibly produced, and built to support long-term growth,” Shayne Wahlmeier, Walmart’s senior vice president of energy, said in a statement.
The Trump administration just unveiled one of its biggest bets on nuclear power yet. The Department of Energy announced $17.5 billion in low-interest loans for utilities to pay for the equipment needed to order new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. The program marks arguably the most significant effort yet to reclaim U.S. control over its flagship reactor design. While the two 1,100-megawatt units completed at Southern Company’s Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in 2023 and 2024 were the first installed in the U.S., China has been building its own version of the reactors at an industrial scale for years. The program will support up to 10 reactors, including two per venture with as many as five utilities. The power companies, currently in talks with the administration, have not yet been named. But Dan Sumner, the chief executive of Westinghouse Electric, told The Wall Street Journal the deal “really kick-starts fleet-scale nuclear development in the United States.” As my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote last night: “I hesitate to praise the project's climate bonafides at the risk of discouraging the Trump administration, but it is worth noting that if this project were to succeed, it would be one of the largest state-assisted build-outs of zero-carbon electricity in recent American history. But it would still take some time to arrive: These reactors aren’t forecast to come online til 2035.”
Yet another behemoth solar farm has come online. On Tuesday, the developer rPlus Energies said its Green River Energy Center had started operations. The facility in central Utah with 400-megawatts of solar panels and 1,600 megawatt-hours of batteries is now the largest solar-and-storage plant within PacifiCorp’s six-state territory out west, including Oregon, Washington, California, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho. “Operation Gigawatt is about ensuring Utah has the reliable, homegrown energy needed to power opportunity for generations,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, said in a statement. “Green River Energy Center represents the kind of large-scale energy investment we need to deliver reliable energy, support rural Utah, and help power the next generation of prosperity across our state.”
The opening comes as solar is now generating more U.S. power than coal, as I told you recently.
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The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Exxon Mobil has the right to sue a Cuban-owned company to recoup more than $70 million in 1960 dollars from an oil complex seized by the Cuban government after Fidel Castro’s revolution. Havana later transferred the ownership of the refinery, terminals, plants, and service stations to Corporación Cimex, the state-owned conglomerate. The lawsuit could now see the oil major try to recover more than $1 billion in losses. “Today’s decision is a critical moment in a 60 year effort to be compensated for what the Cuban government illegally seized,” Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler told E&E News in an emailed statement. “It reflects two things: the merits of our argument and the fact that our company will fight a good fight for as long as it takes.”
The Trump administration understands the importance of refining cobalt — that’s why, as I reported last year, the Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency is pumping money into a startup that promises a new and cheap way to process the mineral. Canada’s Sherritt International started shutting down its Fort Saskatchewan refinery after the U.S. expanded sanctions on Cuba, halting exports of a feedstock supply needed for the plant in Alberta, Canada. The move, in addition to the Supreme Court ruling, come amid intensifying pressure by Washington on the Cuban regime.
California is once again following a New York trend. Just weeks after Albany sued to stop the Trump administration’s bid to pay TotalEnergies to give up its offshore wind projects, Sacramento is joining the litigation. “At a time when the country needs more reliable and sustainable power supply, the Trump Administration is busy using taxpayer money to strike backroom buyouts that make clean-energy projects disappear,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a statement. “California won’t stand idly by as the Trump Administration illegally strikes deals to kill offshore wind projects and replace them with more windfalls for his fossil fuel friends; we’re putting the Administration on notice that we intend to sue.”
Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, experts projected oil prices would go to $200 a barrel. But then… they didn’t. In fact, while gasoline prices rose in the United States, and Europe and Asia suffered higher costs, the resulting energy crisis wasn’t even as bad as what followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Why? China. The country seems to have absorbed the costs of Trump’s war of choice by releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from its strategic stockpile. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, an oil markets researcher and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. They discuss China’s massive (and quiet) intervention, why it’s “the most important thing we learned” from the Iran War, and what it means for the future of energy and geopolitics. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Mentioned:
China Oil Demand Doubts, Rory’s 2023 article about Chinese strategic stockbuilding
Previously on Shift Key: Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis, featuring Rory
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.