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On dimming solar, Asian carp, and ancient macaws

Current conditions: The Central United States is bracing for flooding as soaking storms deluge the region • Arctic air is barreling southward to replace the record warmth in the Midwest and Northeast • Temperatures in the Indian state of Gujarat are hitting 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
If you know anything about America’s flagship nuclear reactor, the Westinghouse AP1000, you know the only two built in the country so far cost around $35 billion total to install, more than double their original cost estimate. While the best projections at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggest the next AP1000 will be the cheapest option per megawatt of any reactors currently in development in the U.S., no one really knows exactly how much the project would cost. Westinghouse can now put a number on how much building a bunch of new AP1000s would do for the U.S. economy, however. A study it commissioned by the consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers found that, assuming an 80-year lifespan, a fleet of 10 new AP1000s would add more than $1 trillion to America’s gross domestic product.
Here are some more numbers from PwC’s report:
The 10-reactor target comes from one of President Donald Trump’s four executive orders on nuclear power last May directing the Department of Energy to build a fleet of new large-scale reactors with an already-certified design. The AP1000 is the obvious frontrunner to fulfill that order, and the agency has already begun meeting with utilities and developers, as Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer reported last month. Dan Sumner, Westinghouse’s interim chief executive, said the report “highlights that work to deploy a 10-unit AP1000 fleet can begin immediately” and called the reactor “the only fully licensed, construction-ready advanced reactor available today.”
In a Tuesday morning post on X, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced that the U.S. Navy had “successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets,” crediting President Donald Trump with “maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran.” Newswires promptly blasted out the story. Oil prices went for what The Wall Street Journal called “another wild ride.” Then, abruptly, Wright deleted the tweet. Hours later, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt corrected the record: “The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or vessel at this time.” The Energy Department ultimately blamed a staffer for incorrectly captioning a video of Wright speaking.
That wasn’t the only thing roiling oil markets. The Financial Times blamed “mixed messages” from U.S., Israeli, and Iranian leadership about the nature of the conflict coming to an end. Then, in a separate scoop from the Journal on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history, exceeding 182 million barrels of oil. Countries that depend heavily on imported fuels are preparing for shortfalls. Thailand and several oil-poor Asian nations this week ordered government bureaucrats to take the stairs and work from home to save energy. In a Tuesday night post on X, Senator Chris Murphy, the Democrat from Connecticut, said administration officials briefed him on classified intelligence about the war and “on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN.” He continued: “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say [sic], right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.”
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The U.S. solar industry installed just over 43 gigawatts of panels last year, a 14% decrease from 2024, according to the latest report from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association. The utility-scale sector, which depends heavily on cheap imported panels, shrank nearly 40% quarter-over-quarter in the last three months of 2025. Residential solar declined by just 2%. Still, solar accounted for 54% of all new power-generating capacity in the U.S. In every future scenario the report analyzed, solar made up roughly half of all new capacity every year through 2060.
The solar manufacturing industry, on the other hand, had what the report called “a monumental year.” New cell capacity continued to expand, while the first new wafer capacity since 2016 came online. If you want a primer on how panels work, Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin has a good explainer on what exactly goes on with the different components.
Big companies including Tesla, Google, and the appliance maker Carrier launched a new industry coalition called Utilize on Tuesday “to address the most urgent challenges facing the U.S. energy system: growing electricity demand and rising power bills driven in part by an electrical grid that is built for short periods of peak use but underutilized most of the time.” The companies involved in the group planned to advocate to state governments, utilities, and regulators for “technology-neutral” policies. “For decades, we’ve built the grid to meet peak demand, even though large portions of it sit unused for most hours of the year,” Ian Magruder, the executive director of Utilize, said in a statement. “It’s like building an airplane that only flies with full passengers a few times a year. That excess capacity is hiding in plain sight, and new technologies give us the opportunity to unlock it. Better grid utilization is one of the fastest, most practical levers states can pull to reduce power bills while supporting economic growth.”
The great battle to defend our shores from the invasion of Asian carp has brought together two political foes: President Trump and one of the people widely seen as a candidate for the Democratic nod to replace him in 2028. On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was working with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer “on trying to save the Great Lakes from the rather violent and destructive” invasive species, which dominate some inland rivers in the U.S. to the point that the fish, first brought over from China in the 1970s, now make up 95% of the total biomass. In the post, Trump said he would ask other governors to join the effort, “including those of Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, New York,” as well as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whom he called “the future Governor of Canada,” a nod to his often-stated desire of annexing Canada as the U.S.’s 51st state.
Separately, he said, “I am also working to save The Great Salt Lake, in Utah, which, in a short period of time, if nothing is done, will have no water.” He offered no other details. But last week, the federal government reached a deal with Utah to claim 22,311 acres of the Great Salt Lake that had been disputed with the state, the Utah News Dispatch reported.
A conservation ecologist studying macaws in Peru spent his weekends visiting archaeological sites such as 1,000-year-old tombs in the arid north. To his surprise, parrot feathers adorned burial sites on the opposite side of the Andes mountains, in a region nowhere near the birds’ habitat. He spent years trying to find out how the feather got there. The side quest turned into a new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications, in which the scientist, George Olah, concluded that live parrots were traded far and wide across the mountainous region. The feathers pointed to what The New York Times called “a complex trade network that predates the Inca Empire.”
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As SPCX hits the Nasdaq, here’s some more from our Musk Mafia survey.
Hopefully by now you’ve read our comprehensive look at Elon Musk’s “climate tech mafia” — a coterie of founders and executives running clean energy and decarbonization companies who jumpstarted their careers at Tesla and SpaceX. But, to quote another hardware executive, we have one more thing.
The backbone of this story was responses to a questionnaire we sent the executives and founders on our list, and we got more great responses than we were able to put in the story, so we wanted to share some of the most insightful and surprising answers they gave us here.
Mateo Jaramillo
Founder and CEO, Form Energy
Formerly: VP Products & Programs, Tesla Energy
“During my time at Tesla, I realized there was a lot of opportunity for energy storage beyond lithium-ion that had never really been commercialized. What I heard over and over again from utility executives while building up the lithium-ion business was that there was a need for something offering much longer duration. Absent that kind of storage, you’re going to build two grids — a renewable grid and a thermal-based grid for reliability — and neither one becomes particularly cost-efficient. So that was the space I went on to go explore.”
Philipp Schröder
Founder and CEO, 1KOMMA5°
Formerly: Country director for Germany and Austria, Tesla
“Total electrification as a precondition for clean energy abundance was a core realization during my time at Tesla. Electrification merges mobility, heating, cooling, and regular consumption into one mega energy stack. That realization also led to our Masterplan for founding 1KOMMA5°.”
Justin Lopas
COO and cofounder, Base Power
Formerly: Lead engineer for Starship manufacturing, SpaceX
“You can get way more done in a day and can move way faster than you think. This does not mean necessarily more hours (although solving any hard problem requires that too), but instead being thoughtful about sequencing work, not accepting delays from suppliers or external counterparties without solid rationale, parallel pathing, accelerating critical learnings to early in the project, etc.”
Cole Ashman
Founder and CEO, PILA
Formerly: Product and applications engineer, Tesla Powerwall
“Question every requirement. It was something that permeated Tesla engineering culture — start from the best possible way to do something and solve for that, instead of letting perceived constraints define what you build.”
Jonathan Criss
Founder and CEO, Vital Lyfe
Formerly: Manager, Starlink development engineering
“At SpaceX, you were expected to own the full outcome, not just your piece of it. I could not go to Elon and say the program slipped because the bathrooms overflowed. He would call me dumb and ask why I did not fix the bathrooms. That mindset forces you to think through every possible failure mode and take responsibility for the overall result. It is basically like running a mini business inside the larger business that is SpaceX.”
Landon Mossburg
Founder and CEO, Peak Energy
Formerly: Director of software engineering and operations, Tesla
“Tesla instills a culture of resourcefulness and extreme cash conservatism when building out operational systems. Being part of that environment teaches you how to design highly effective, creative solutions without wasting capital, allowing us to hit our deployment milestones while remaining exceptionally lean and disciplined with our funding.”
Arch Rao
Founder and CEO, Span
Formerly: Head of products, application, and sales engineering, Tesla Energy
“J.B. Straubel is easily one of the smartest yet incredibly humble engineers and leaders I’ve had the opportunity to work with. He has deep domain knowledge and a keen sense of how to build a high-performance team. To this day, I connect with him to talk about technical ideas and for mentorship.”
Kunal Girotra
Founder and CEO, Lunar Energy
Formerly: Senior director and head of Tesla Energy
“J.B. [Straubel] and Drew [Baglino] were both influential in how they helped solve complex problems within the company while dealing with constant pressure on cash and company survival — [the] company wasn’t the insanity of stock price that it is right now. The formative periods of Tesla were the ones that defined the company, and both of them led from the front.”
Current conditions: The powerful storm system rolling through the Midwest and the Plains on Thursday caused more than 350 incidents of severe weather in just two states, Iowa and Michigan • New York City is getting its own thunderstorm today, which will break the heat going into the weekend • Temperatures in Mecca are already 110 degrees Fahrenheit, and will climb higher on Saturday.
The Department of Energy has reversed its terminations of 11 grants to clean energy projects in states that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The move comes months after the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the cancellations violated the Fifth Amendment’s equal protection guarantee, citing the continuation of comparable grants to states that voted for President Donald Trump in the election. Under the terms of an agreement between the litigants and the federal government filed on Thursday, the Energy Department will vacate the terminations. Among the primary reasons for the decision, according to a blog post from a network for former Energy Department officials, is that the agency itself admitted that part of its justification for canceling the projects was that they were listed in documents as taking place in “blue states.” But it wasn’t just Democratic-leaning states that were targeted in the initial cuts last fall. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, red state projects were on the chopping block, too.
With shares set to start trading on the Nasdaq this morning, SpaceX is on track to become a $1.7 trillion behemoth after raising roughly $75 billion at its stock market debut. Elon Musk’s rocket business, which has also emerged as one of the world’s leading satellite internet providers, is aiming to launch its first extraterrestrial data center in 2028.
Musk’s business empire has spawned an entire ecosystem of companies looking to innovate on hardware and categories venture capitalists call “deep tech.” As Emily and Matthew Zeitlin wrote in a feature yesterday, Musk — once a don of the PayPal mafia — has now emerged at the helm of a new “climate tech mafia” that includes such startups as the next-generation transformer maker Heron Power and the fusion company Maritime Fusion.

Michigan utility regulators should reject utility giant Consumers Energy’s proposed sale of 13 hydroelectric dams to a private equity buyer. In a 312-page ruling detailed by Bridge Michigan, an administrative law judge called the utility’s plan to sell the dams and buy back power at an inflated price “highly problematic” and “inconsistent with the public interest.”
The proposed deal is a sign of growing interest in hydropower, even as existing dams struggle through lengthy relicensing processes. Just last month, the investment firm Hull Street bought the North American hydro giant First Light. Last July, Google brokered the biggest hydropower deal in history, purchasing 3 gigawatts of power.
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General Motors has inked a deal with the sodium-ion battery startup Peak Energy to deploy the competitors to lithium power packs as energy storage systems. The automaker’s investment arm, GM Ventures, will back a partnership with Peak Energy (incidentally another Musk mafia company, co-founded by former Tesla director Landon Mossburg). The move highlights electric vehicle manufacturers’ shift toward grid storage as the battery-making capacity that came online has failed to find demand for all-electric cars. “We believe sodium-ion will be a defining chemistry for grid-scale energy storage systems in the years ahead,” Kurt Kelty, vice president of battery and sustainability at General Motors, said in a statement to InsideEVs.
The United Kingdom is preparing to build Europe’s largest direct air capture facility. Three companies — the developer Progressive Energy, and the carbon-capture specialists Airhive and Mission Zero Technologies — formed a joint venture to build a new plant in northeast England, Bloomberg reported. The venture, wittily named UnionDAC, would come online in 2030 and sequester 60,000 tons annually within two years.
In the U.S., meanwhile, the startup Twelve brought the world’s first commercial e-fuels plant online, using direct air capture to suck CO2 out of the thin air. The company, according to Hydrogen Insight, already has offtake agreements with Alaska Airlines and Microsoft.
New York is officially moving forward with its ambitious nuclear plans. On Thursday, the state Public Service Commission launched a bid to procure 8.4 gigawatts of nuclear power to serve as the “backbone of zero emissions electricity.” The process kicks off with “a full examination of ways to bring new advanced nuclear power online in a timely, cost-effective manner.” In a statement, Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat up for reelection this year, said advanced nuclear “is one of the best available options to provide both relief to consumers and strengthen the resilience of New York’s grid with round-the-clock emissions-free energy,” noting that the push is part of her “vision for an all-of-the-above energy strategy that includes renewables and other forms of energy to keep the lights on.”
The former ExxonMobil CEO left his legacy both on the Earth and in the sky.
Lee Raymond, the former ExxonMobil chief executive who became one of the country’s most important and influential climate science deniers, died in Dallas on Saturday. His death was announced today.
Raymond would probably count as a world-historic figure even if viewed only through the lens of the fossil fuel business. As Exxon’s chief executive, he personally negotiated the company’s merger with Mobil, creating the modern oil and gas juggernaut ExxonMobil in 2000 — and uniting two major pieces of the old Standard Oil monopoly. He ran Exxon from 1993 to 1999, and then ExxonMobil until 2005, at a crucial period in the history of that company, turning it from a diversified conglomerate that sold office furniture, real estate, and uranium fuel into a streamlined and exorbitantly profitable oil and gas business. Even before taking over the company, he managed its response to the disastrous Exxon Valdez oil spill; he later oversaw a worker safety push that would be widely copied by the industry.
In a way, he transformed Exxon from a company that was itself a portfolio — that distinguished itself via managerial competence across business lines — into a ruthlessly focused oil and gas supermajor meant to sit inside other people’s portfolios and churn out cash. Under his leadership, ExxonMobil became the world’s most profitable publicly traded company; it later lost that title to Apple.
Yet even if Raymond had merely played a bit part in the history of oil and gas, he would remain essential to the modern ordeal of climate change. Today, people throw around the “climate change denier” label often enough that it has lost some of its charge. But Raymond was the genuine article, a true villain. It was Raymond who turned ExxonMobil into one of the world’s most important funders of falsehood and denial about fundamental climate science research.
Raymond, an engineer by training, straightforwardly rejected the mainstream scientific consensus that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels cause climate change. Even though Exxon’s in-house climate research arm knew by the late 1970s that “there is no doubt” fossil fuels worsened the “potential problem of CO2 in the atmosphere,” Raymond did everything he could to elevate more industry-friendly perspectives. And he was willing to muddy the truth to win.
Under Raymond’s leadership, Exxon spent millions of dollars funding a shadowy network of think tanks and pseudo-scientific groups who published memos, briefings, and advertisements meant to cast doubt on climate change. As the journalist Steve Coll wrote in his book Private Empire,
Under Lee Raymond, ExxonMobil had persistently funded a public policy campaign in Washington and elsewhere that was transparently designed to raise public skepticism about the science that identified fossil fuels as a cause of global warming. ExxonMobil ran some aspects of its campaign clandestinely; that is, it did not initially disclose the full scope and purpose of contributions it made. […] What distinguished the corporation's activity during the late 1990s and the first Bush term was the way it crossed into disinformation.
In his capacity as CEO, Raymond made it clear that he personally rejected bedrock science. “Is the Earth really warming? Does burning fossil fuels cause global warming? And do we now have a reasonable scientific basis for predicting future temperature?,” he asked rhetorically during a 1997 meeting of the World Petroleum Congress in Beijing.
He answered all three questions in the negative, concluding, “Let’s agree there’s a lot we really don't know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond.” (In fact, we now know that even ExxonMobil’s primitive in-house climate models, then 20 years old, basically got global warming right.) He also claimed — we now know incorrectly — that any policy passed in the 1990s would be “very unlikely” to affect the future trajectory of mid-21st-century emissions declines.
The campaign worked. Exxon’s activism during this period, conducted sub and supra rosa, helped prevent the passage of major global and domestic climate policy in the 1990s; it also kept the United States from developing expertise in the solar, wind, and battery industries that other countries now dominate.
One of the ironies of this era is that much of modern climate science is derived from oil geology. You cannot grasp the all-important role that carbon plays in the Earth system — the way it has functioned as the thermostat for Earth’s climate over the long run — without a rich understanding of what the fossil record tells us about the Permian, Carboniferous, or the Upper Jurassic periods.
Take the Permian, for instance: When it began 299 million years ago, the Earth was relatively cool, with atmospheric CO2 levels somewhere around 200 to 400 parts per million. But soon enormous volcanoes ignited subterranean stores of fossil fuels, dumping thousands of gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere and initiating an era of rapid global warming and ocean acidification. When the Permian ended 252 million years ago in the largest mass extinction in Earth’s history — an annihilation that climate scientists call “the Great Dying” — atmospheric CO2 was closer to 2,500 parts per million.
When Lee Raymond was born in South Dakota in 1938, the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration sat at about 311 parts per million. When he died last week, it read 421 parts per million. Look at it this way, I suppose: Many people would feel captive to a change of that magnitude. But Raymond did something about it.