Climate Change Is Coming for U.S. Property Prices

Current conditions: More than 4 feet of rain have fallen in Australia’s Queensland state since Saturday, triggering a flooding disaster • Parts of Los Angeles are under an air quality alert due to particle pollution • A large storm system will torment millions of Americans across the Plains and East Coast later this week.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico loom

On Saturday evening, President Trump signed orders placing 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and a lower, 10% tariff on Canadian oil, natural gas, uranium, and other energy sources. Trump also imposed a 10% tariff on all goods imported from China. If the tariffs go into effect tomorrow as planned, they will affect nearly half of America’s imports and reshape some of the world’s most important energy and trading relationships. They could shrink the United States’ GDP by 0.4%, while increasing taxes by $830 per household, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, a center-right think tank. As Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer has reported, the tariffs will hurt a lot of people and businesses, including:

• the American oil industry, refineries, and anyone who buys gasoline in the Midwest and Mountain West, where Canadian oil plays a much larger role in local markets. They will hurt diesel and jet fuel prices in those regions too.
• anyone who uses electricity across the parts of the country, especially the Northeast, that import large amounts of electricity from Canada’s hydroelectric plants.
• home builders and construction companies because the United States gets its best building-grade lumber from Canada.
• anyone who wants to buy or rent a home in the United States because the lack of lumber will worsen the housing shortage and general affordability crisis.
• automakers, who in the past three decades have constructed sophisticated supply chains spanning North America. They’ll also hurt autoworkers, dealerships, and people looking to buy cars. By one estimate, prices for U.S. car buyers will rise by an average of $3,000.

2. Climate change expected to slash $1.5 trillion from U.S. home values

Climate change will wipe $1.47 trillion off of U.S. home values by 2055, according to a new report from First Street. Extreme weather is causing insurance costs to rise, while also changing the desirability of certain areas. This convergence “suggests there may be fundamental restructuring of home values across the U.S. in the coming decades,” with property values expected to fall across the country. Some statistics from the report:

55 million – Total number of Americans expected to voluntarily relocate to avoid climate risks by 2055.
5.2 million – Americans expected to do so this year.
12.8 million – Americans expected to relocate because of wildfire smoke particulate matter by 2055. Nearly 12 million will move because of flooding, 14.7 million because of extreme heat, and 11 million due to drought.
31% – increase in the cost of homeowners insurance since 2019.
22% – rise in inflation during the same time.
322% – expected increase in Miami’s insurance premiums by 2055. Florida’s premiums have already gone up by 47% in just five years due to intensifying hurricanes.
73% – share of Americans that consider climate risks when buying a home.
4,107 – neighborhoods currently classified as “climate resilient,” with low climate risks and stable insurance rates. These neighborhoods are expected to drive much of the population growth through 2055. However, high-risk areas with rising insurance premiums are also projected to grow until they reach a “tipping point” into population decline.
21,750 – “climate abandonment” neighborhoods that are seeing premiums go up and populations go down. These represent 26% of all neighborhoods.

National average insurance as a percent of mortgage costs. First Street

3. USDA told to remove ‘climate change’ from web pages

In case you missed it: Employees with the U.S. Department of Agriculture were ordered to “archive and unpublish” agency web pages that reference climate change, Politico reported, citing an internal email. Any future mentions of climate change should be documented so they can be reviewed. The move could limit access to information about climate-smart agriculture programs, USDA climate hubs, and wildfire management. It is “reminiscent of moves made during the first Trump administration to remove references to climate change from federal government websites,” Politico noted.

4. Back-to-back atmospheric rivers to soak California

An atmospheric river is bringing large amounts of precipitation to Northern and Central California. The “Pineapple Express” weather pattern – so named because it moves up from the tropical Pacific around Hawaii – could dump a month’s worth of rain on areas including Redding and San Francisco. AccuWeather is forecasting up to 8 inches of rainfall around Redding, where flooding is already underway. This storm will be followed quickly by another burst of moisture farther south toward charred Los Angeles. This might help ease some drought conditions but could also trigger mudslides in areas recently burned in devastating wildfires.

AccuWeather

5. ChargePoint partners with AAA

The American Automobile Association (AAA) is partnering with ChargePoint to give its 60 million members discounts at EV chargers. The announcement is short on details at the moment, but as Jo Borrás at Electrek said, “when the nation’s largest auto club is talking about EVs, it feels like we’re moving in the right direction.” ChargePoint has more than 30,000 charging stations across the country.

THE KICKER

“If a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history.”

–The editorial board of the conservative-learning Wall Street Journal