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On the storm’s next moves, electrifying oil and gas rigs, and risky real estate
Current conditions: Parts of England could be hit by tornadoes today • Another hurricane is churning in the Atlantic • The border between Switzerland and Italy has to be moved because of rapidly melting glaciers.
Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region last night as a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 miles per hour. The extent of the damage from the storm so far is unclear, but several locations saw record storm surge, including nearly 10 feet in Ceder Key and 6.3 feet in St. Petersburg. At least three people are known to have been killed, and more than 1.2 million Floridians are without power. “We’re fearing the worst when the sun comes up,” said the sheriff’s office in Suwannee County. “We’re gonna need some prayers folks.”
NOAA
One hurricane scientist said Helene is one of the largest storms on record to strike the Gulf Coast, with its winds covering an area of about 420 miles. The storm’s size means its effects will be felt in cities far north of the coast, even as it weakens. As of Friday morning it had been downgraded to a tropical storm. In Georgia, more than 900,000 are without power. Tornado warnings were issued for parts of South Carolina, with additional tornado watches in effect in Georgia and North Carolina. A quarter of oil production and about 20% of gas output in the Gulf was shut down because of the storm.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is under pressure to clarify her position on natural gas. “We need more details,” said Dave Callahan, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition. Harris has reiterated that she is not against fracking, and has called for investing in “diverse sources of energy,” but hasn’t said much more on the issue yet. President Biden paused approvals for new liquified natural gas export terminals while the Energy Department studied their climate effects, a move that angered the industry but pleased climate activists who say the terminals lock in greenhouse gas pollution for decades to come. A judge has since blocked the freeze, but new approvals remain slow. Pennsylvania is a major natural gas producing state, and a must-win battleground for the 2024 election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised to lift the permitting freeze if elected in November.
Texas yesterday approved a plan to expand grid infrastructure in the Permian Basin, the largest oilfield in the U.S., to make sure the basin’s oil and gas facilities have reliable electricity. Last month Permian Basin Petroleum Association Executive vice president Stephen Robertson said access to electricity was the industry’s biggest concern for the basin, where power demand is expected to balloon over the next 15 years as the oil and gas industry electrifies operations.
The International Energy Agency estimates that oil and gas operations account for around 15% of global energy-related emissions. It calls for a 50% reduction in emissions intensity for those operations by the end of the decade to align with a planway toward net zero by 2050, and electrification is one step on that path. But the IEA notes that “tackling methane emissions is the single most important measure that contributes to the overall fall in emissions from oil and gas operations.” Recent data suggests U.S. producers – including those in the Permian Basin – continue to emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas, at rates much higher than current EPA estimates and industry targets.
The United Arab Emirates is expected to outline its new national climate plan – known more formally as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) – ahead of the upcoming COP29 climate summit in November. “That would make it one of the first major emitters to take that step ahead of the February 2025 deadline,” Reuters noted. Under the Paris Agreement, party nations are required to submit new and updated NDCs every five years, outlining their plans to reduce emissions in line with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The upcoming deadline for new NDCs is February 2025, but Sultan Al Jaber, president of last year's COP, said the UAE hopes to set an example for other countries to submit their plans asap. Previous NDCs from major fossil fuel producing nations did not mention oil, coal, and gas, so it will be interesting to see if or how the new plans grapple with the stated COP28 goal of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels.
A recent report from the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore and S&P Global warned that the real estate sector could see climate change-related losses of more than $500 billion by 2050. It added that “climate adaptation solutions for non-residential real estate like green or cool roofs and wet or dry floodproofing present investment opportunities.” Last year, the U.S. experienced 28 weather and climate disasters, and together they cost more than $92 billion.
Relatedly, yesterday the online real estate marketplace Zillow said it will start including properties’ climate risks in sale listings, using data from climate research and technology company First Street. Prospective buyers will be able to see flood, fire, wind, heat, and air quality risks, along with insurance requirements and tailored recommendations. More than 80% of home buyers are factoring climate risk into their decisions now, First Street said. The climate risk information will be available on the Zillow website by the end of the year (rolling out on the Zillow apps this year or early 2025).
Zillow/First Street
“I just want to be clear that building the clean energy future that we want and need is not a rhetorical flourish. It means actual construction.” –Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, speaking with Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer about how fighting climate change will mean building a new economy. Read their entire conversation here.
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New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.
It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.
As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.
How successful was Moss Landing at enlivening opponents of energy storage? Since the California disaster six months ago, more than 6 gigawatts of BESS has received opposition from activists explicitly tying their campaigns to the incident, Heatmap Pro® researcher Charlie Clynes told me in an interview earlier this month.
Matt Eisenson of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Law agreed that there’s been a spike in opposition, telling me that we are currently seeing “more instances of opposition to battery storage than we have in past years.” And while Eisenson said he couldn’t speak to the impacts of the fire specifically on that rise, he acknowledged that the disaster set “a harmful precedent” at the same time “battery storage is becoming much more present.”
“The type of fire that occurred there is unlikely to occur with modern technology, but the Moss Landing example [now] tends to come up across the country,” Eisenson said.
Some of the fresh opposition is in rural agricultural communities such as Grundy County, Illinois, which just banned energy storage systems indefinitely “until the science is settled.” But the most crucial place to watch seems to be New York City, for two reasons: One, it’s where a lot of energy storage is being developed all at once; and two, it has a hyper-saturated media market where criticism can receive more national media attention than it would in other parts of the country.
Someone who’s felt this pressure firsthand is Nick Lombardi, senior vice president of project development for battery storage company NineDot Energy. NineDot and other battery storage developers had spent years laying the groundwork in New York City to build out the energy storage necessary for the city to meet its net-zero climate goals. More recently they’ve faced crowds of protestors against a battery storage facility in Queens, and in Staten Island endured hecklers at public meetings.
“We’ve been developing projects in New York City for a few years now, and for a long time we didn’t run into opposition to our projects or really any sort of meaningful negative coverage in the press. All of that really changed about six months ago,” Lombardi said.
The battery storage developer insists that opposition to the technology is not popular and represents a fringe group. Lombardi told me that the company has more than 50 battery storage sites in development across New York City, and only faced “durable opposition” at “three or four sites.” The company also told me it has yet to receive the kind of email complaint flood that would demonstrate widespread opposition.
This is visible in the politicians who’ve picked up the anti-BESS mantle: GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s become a champion for the cause, but mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” campaign itself would provide for the construction of these facilities. (While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has not focused on BESS, it’s quite unlikely the climate hawkish democratic socialist would try to derail these projects.)
Lombardi told me he now views Moss Landing as a “catalyst” for opposition in the NYC metro area. “Suddenly there’s national headlines about what’s happening,” he told me. “There were incidents in the past that were in the news, but Moss Landing was headline news for a while, and that combined with the fact people knew it was happening in their city combined to create a new level of awareness.”
He added that six months after the blaze, it feels like developers in the city have a better handle on the situation. “We’ve spent a lot of time in reaction to that to make sure we’re organized and making sure we’re in contact with elected officials, community officials, [and] coordinated with utilities,” Lombardi said.
And more on the biggest conflicts around renewable energy projects in Kentucky, Ohio, and Maryland.
1. St. Croix County, Wisconsin - Solar opponents in this county see themselves as the front line in the fight over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” law and its repeal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
2. Barren County, Kentucky - How much wood could a Wood Duck solar farm chuck if it didn’t get approved in the first place? We may be about to find out.
3. Iberia Parish, Louisiana - Another potential proxy battle over IRA tax credits is going down in Louisiana, where residents are calling to extend a solar moratorium that is about to expire so projects can’t start construction.
4. Baltimore County, Maryland – The fight over a transmission line in Maryland could have lasting impacts for renewable energy across the country.
5. Worcester County, Maryland – Elsewhere in Maryland, the MarWin offshore wind project appears to have landed in the crosshairs of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency.
6. Clark County, Ohio - Consider me wishing Invenergy good luck getting a new solar farm permitted in Ohio.
7. Searcy County, Arkansas - An anti-wind state legislator has gone and posted a slide deck that RWE provided to county officials, ginning up fresh uproar against potential wind development.
Talking local development moratoria with Heatmap’s own Charlie Clynes.
This week’s conversation is special: I chatted with Charlie Clynes, Heatmap Pro®’s very own in-house researcher. Charlie just released a herculean project tracking all of the nation’s county-level moratoria and restrictive ordinances attacking renewable energy. The conclusion? Essentially a fifth of the country is now either closed off to solar and wind entirely or much harder to build. I decided to chat with him about the work so you could hear about why it’s an important report you should most definitely read.
The following chat was lightly edited for clarity. Let’s dive in.
Tell me about the project you embarked on here.
Heatmap’s research team set out last June to call every county in the United States that had zoning authority, and we asked them if they’ve passed ordinances to restrict renewable energy, or if they have renewable energy projects in their communities that have been opposed. There’s specific criteria we’ve used to determine if an ordinance is restrictive, but by and large, it’s pretty easy to tell once a county sends you an ordinance if it is going to restrict development or not.
The vast majority of counties responded, and this has been a process that’s allowed us to gather an extraordinary amount of data about whether counties have been restricting wind, solar and other renewables. The topline conclusion is that restrictions are much worse than previously accounted for. I mean, 605 counties now have some type of restriction on renewable energy — setbacks that make it really hard to build wind or solar, moratoriums that outright ban wind and solar. Then there’s 182 municipality laws where counties don’t have zoning jurisdiction.
We’re seeing this pretty much everywhere throughout the country. No place is safe except for states who put in laws preventing jurisdictions from passing restrictions — and even then, renewable energy companies are facing uphill battles in getting to a point in the process where the state will step in and overrule a county restriction. It’s bad.
Getting into the nitty-gritty, what has changed in the past few years? We’ve known these numbers were increasing, but what do you think accounts for the status we’re in now?
One is we’re seeing a high number of renewables coming into communities. But I think attitudes started changing too, especially in places that have been fairly saturated with renewable energy like Virginia, where solar’s been a presence for more than a decade now. There have been enough projects where people have bad experiences that color their opinion of the industry as a whole.
There’s also a few narratives that have taken shape. One is this idea solar is eating up prime farmland, or that it’ll erode the rural character of that area. Another big one is the environment, especially with wind on bird deaths, even though the number of birds killed by wind sounds big until you compare it to other sources.
There are so many developers and so many projects in so many places of the world that there are examples where either something goes wrong with a project or a developer doesn’t follow best practices. I think those have a lot more staying power in the public perception of renewable energy than the many successful projects that go without a hiccup and don’t bother people.
Are people saying no outright to renewable energy? Or is this saying yes with some form of reasonable restrictions?
It depends on where you look and how much solar there is in a community.
One thing I’ve seen in Virginia, for example, is counties setting caps on the total acreage solar can occupy, and those will be only 20 acres above the solar already built, so it’s effectively blocking solar. In places that are more sparsely populated, you tend to see restrictive setbacks that have the effect of outright banning wind — mile-long setbacks are often insurmountable for developers. Or there’ll be regulations to constrict the scale of a project quite a bit but don’t ban the technologies outright.
What in your research gives you hope?
States that have administrations determined to build out renewables have started to override these local restrictions: Michigan, Illinois, Washington, California, a few others. This is almost certainly going to have an impact.
I think the other thing is there are places in red states that have had very good experiences with renewable energy by and large. Texas, despite having the most wind generation in the nation, has not seen nearly as much opposition to wind, solar, and battery storage. It’s owing to the fact people in Texas generally are inclined to support energy projects in general and have seen wind and solar bring money into these small communities that otherwise wouldn’t get a lot of attention.