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Climate

What to Expect From La Niña

On shifting weather patterns, nuclear fusion, and forever chemicals

What to Expect From La Niña
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: California is getting a brief respite from the rain • Barcelona’s soccer club is reducing its water use as drought grips Spain • It will be chilly and windy in Las Vegas this weekend for Super Bowl LVIII.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Looming La Niña could make for more extreme weather

El Niño may be on the way out. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) yesterday issued a La Niña watch, saying there’s a 55% chance the weather pattern could emerge this summer. El Niño has contributed to above-average ocean temperatures and an intensification of extreme weather. La Niña typically cools the equatorial Pacific, but experts say it could bring stronger hurricanes, drought, and even trigger more tornadoes in the Midwest.

2. Famed climate scientist wins defamation suit

Climate scientist Michael Mann, most well-known for popularizing the “hockey stick” graph in 1998 that showed a spike in global temperatures, won a defamation lawsuit against two writers who were critical of his work. In 2012, Rand Simberg, a former adjunct scholar at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, compared Mann to convicted child abuser Jerry Sandusky, writing that “except for instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data.” Steyn piled on Simberg’s comments and called Mann’s research “fraudulent.” A jury found the statements were written with “maliciousness, spite, ill will, vengeance or deliberate intent to harm,” and awarded Mann more than $1 million in damages. “I hope this verdict sends a message that falsely attacking climate scientists is not protected speech,” Mann said.

3. Researchers set new nuclear fusion energy record

European scientists have set a new record for the amount of energy produced from nuclear fusion: Researchers working at the Joint European Torus (JET) facility in the U.K. – one of the most powerful fusion machines in the world – produced 69 megajoules of fusion energy for five seconds, surpassing the 2021 record of 59 megajoules. That’s “enough energy to boil about 70 kettles,” according to the Financial Timescalculation. While that might not seem like a lot, experts see it as a sign of progress toward harnessing the process that powers the sun for abundant clean energy. But that remains a long way off: The JET experiment used more energy than it produced, and “building a fusion power plant also has many engineering and materials challenges,” Aneeqa Khan, a research fellow in nuclear fusion at the University of Manchester, told CNN. This experiment is one of the last to be conducted at the JET facility, which is being decommissioned this year.

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  • 4. Insurance industry taps scientists to help measure growing wilfire risks

    The insurance industry is sponsoring research into how wildfires spread in urban areas, E&E News reported. The goal is to help insurers better gauge risk as wildfires fueled by a warming climate increasingly threaten buildings and cause billions in losses. Most of the costliest wildfires in U.S. history have struck in the last decade, and “global insured losses between 2011 and 2020 for wildfires alone were more than five times higher than losses in the previous three decades.” Not much modeling has been done around how fires jump from rural to urban areas, or about how different types of buildings withstand fires, and “the industry is working to get its arms around the issue so companies can more confidently do business in fire-prone areas — and incentivize homeowners to do what they can to draw down the risk.”

    5. Rapid PFAS detection method discovered

    Identifying “forever chemicals” lurking in our homes and the environment may soon get a lot easier. Chemists from the New Jersey Institute of Technology say they’ve found a way to detect traces of harmful PFAS in mere minutes. It could make it much easier for authorities to identify PFAS and clean them up. “The current testing methods are costly and time-consuming, taking hours for sample preparation and analysis in some cases," said Hao Chen, the study's corresponding author and NJIT chemistry professor. "What our study demonstrates is a much faster, sensitive and versatile method that can monitor our drinking water, land, and consumer products for contamination in minutes." The team used its rapid detection method to identify two kinds of PFAS in just 40mg of soil. The process took less than three minutes.

    THE KICKER

    California Academy of Sciences

    Ten African penguin chicks have hatched over the last 14 months at a San Francisco science museum, after four years with no new chicks.


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    Spotlight

    An Energy Developer Is Fighting a Data Center in Texas

    Things in Sulphur Springs are getting weird.

    Energy production and a data center.
    Heatmap Illustration/Library of Congress, MSB Global, Luminant

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is trying to pressure a company into breaking a legal agreement for land conservation so a giant data center can be built on the property.

    The Lone Star town of Sulphur Springs really wants to welcome data center developer MSB Global, striking a deal this year to bring several data centers with on-site power to the community. The influx of money to the community would be massive: the town would get at least $100 million in annual tax revenue, nearly three times its annual budget. Except there’s a big problem: The project site is on land gifted by a former coal mining company to Sulphur Springs expressly on the condition that it not be used for future energy generation. Part of the reason for this was that the lands were contaminated as a former mine site, and it was expected this property would turn into something like a housing development or public works project.

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    Hotspots

    Who Really Speaks for the Trees in Sacramento?

    A solar developer gets into a forest fight in California, and more of the week’s top conflicts around renewables.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Sacramento County, California – A solar project has become a national symbol of the conflicts over large-scale renewables development in forested areas.

    • This week the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors unanimously voted to advance the environmental review for D.E. Shaw Renewables’ Coyote Creek agrivoltaics solar and battery project, which would provide 200 megawatts to the regional energy grid in Sacramento County. As we’ve previously explained, this is a part of central California in needs of a significant renewables build-out to meet its decarbonization goals and wean off a reliance on fossil energy.
    • But a lot of people seem upset over Coyote Creek. The plan for the project currently includes removing thousands of old growth trees, which environmental groups, members of Native tribes, local activists and even The Sacramento Bee have joined hands to oppose. One illustrious person wore a Lorax costume to a hearing on the project in protest.
    • Coyote Creek does represent the quintessential decarb vs. conservation trade-off. D.E. Shaw took at least 1,000 trees off the chopping block in response to the pressure and plans to plant fresh saplings to replace them, but critics have correctly noted that those will potentially take centuries to have the same natural carbon removal capabilities as old growth trees. We’ve seen this kind of story blow up in the solar industry’s face before – do you remember the Fox News scare cycle over Michigan solar and deforestation?
    • But there would be a significant cost to any return to the drawing board: Republicans in Congress have, of course, succeeded in accelerating the phase-out of tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Work on Coyote Creek is expected to start next year, in time to potentially still qualify for the IRA clean electricity credit. I suspect this may have contributed to the county’s decision to advance Coyote Creek without a second look.
    • I believe Coyote Creek represents a new kind of battlefield for conservation groups seeking to compel renewable energy developers into greater accountability for environmental impacts. Is it a good thing that ancient trees might get cut down to build a clean energy project? Absolutely not. But faced with a belligerent federal government and a shrinking window to qualify for tax credits, companies can’t just restart a project at a new site. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on decarbonizing the electricity grid. .

    2. Sedgwick County, Kansas – I am eyeing this county to see whether a fight over a solar farm turns into a full-blown ban on future projects.

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    Q&A

    How to Build a Data Center, According to an AI-Curious Conservationist

    A conversation with Renee Grabe of Nature Forward

    Renee Grebe.
    Heatmap Illustration

    This week’s conversation is with Renee Grabe, a conservation advocate for the environmental group Nature Forward who is focused intently on data center development in Northern Virginia. I reached out to her for a fresh perspective on where data centers and renewable energy development fits in the Commonwealth amidst heightened frustration over land use and agricultural impacts, especially after this past election cycle. I thought her views on policy-making here were refreshingly nuanced.

    This transcript was lightly edited for clarity.

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