You’re out of free articles.
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
Sign In or Create an Account.
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Welcome to Heatmap
Thank you for registering with Heatmap. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our lives, a force reshaping our economy, our politics, and our culture. We hope to be your trusted, friendly, and insightful guide to that transformation. Please enjoy your free articles. You can check your profile here .
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Subscribe to get unlimited Access
Hey, you are out of free articles but you are only a few clicks away from full access. Subscribe below and take advantage of our introductory offer.
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Create Your Account
Please Enter Your Password
Forgot your password?
Please enter the email address you use for your account so we can send you a link to reset your password:
Americans living downwind of the Canadian fires can breathe a sigh of relief this week, knowing they’re likely safe from a repeat of last week’s
history-making smoke pollution event. But maybe don’t breathe too deeply — where there is fire, there is smoke, and there were still almost 450 active fires burning in Canada on Monday morning.
The good news is, the low-pressure front off the Atlantic Coast that had been responsible for channeling smoke directly at New York City, Boston, and Washington, D.C., has weakened and broken up, meaning “the winds are fanning out in more directions, spreading the smoke across a wider area,” Bloomberg reports. The smoke from Canada now stretches as far east as Western Europe and Norway, but pollutant concentrations are low enough that most people aren’t in danger.
Still, if you’re planning on a big gardening project or a long run, earlier in the week will be better since some signs point to the potential for smoky air to return as we approach the weekend.
Here’s how things are stacking up across the country:
The AQI hovered around 100 on Monday morning in New York City — just a tick away from being considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. But the rain forecast for the city is expected to help clear up some of the lingering pollution via a process called “coagulation,” when water droplets essentially wash out pollutants from the air.
The bad news is, “in order to extensively clean out the air currently over our region, we would need a major rainstorm, such as a tropical storm or nor’easter,” CBS News New York reports, noting that none are in our immediate forecast. Additionally, the pollution-clearing “bad weather” will likely be localized on Monday, meaning some areas will get flushed out better than others. There is even a chance that the stormy weather back East could actually fan the flames in Canada and eventually send more smoke back toward the States, AccuWeather’s meteorologists predicted.
Based on models at the time of publication, New York will remain under smoke through Tuesday morning, with the chance of some lingering smoke returning in low quantities on Wednesday morning. Much will depend on how much smoke is produced in the weeks — and possibly months — ahead, with some U.S. leaders turning their attention toward stopping the problem at the source.
\u201cThis is a crisis for both our countries. I\u2019m calling on @SecVilsack to double the number Forest Service personnel deployed to Canada to\u00a0help\u00a0fight the\u00a0wildfires and prevent a summer of smoke in New York and the Northeast.\u201d— Chuck Schumer (@Chuck Schumer) 1686522127
New York state remained under a cover of smoke going into Monday, although AQI warnings were mostly in a “moderate” under-100 range. Rain upstate though is expected to clear the air quality and hopefully help mitigate the local risk of more fires starting. Buffalo has gone 22 days without measurable rainfall, “a tie for the 10th longest stretch without measurable rainfall since rainfall records started back in 1874,” ABC News’ local affiliate reports. If Canada gets the rain, too, it could help slow or put out some of the fires, leading to reduced smoke downwind in the States.
By mid-week, meteorologists forecast a new low-pressure system might form that could pull smoke back down over western New York, though it’s doubtful it will be as bad as it was last week.
New England was mostly spared the smoke during last week’s crisis due to the low-pressure zone that directed bad air around it. Because that system has now broken up, New England joins the rest of the East Coast this week under a hazy sun.
\u201cExpect smoke this week in New England, & dipping down into the Northern Plains. Canadian provinces will continue to battle with fires and wildfire smoke through the week. Isolated to scattered storms are expected from the deep south to the Mid-Atlantic. https://t.co/MqqaWfukmv\u201d— Andrew Revering (@Andrew Revering) 1686563864
In particular, the National Weather Service warns that there will be “degraded air quality” on Monday evening due to the winds blowing smoke back into the area.
\u201cYou may have noticed it looks a little hazy outside. It has taken a bit of a detour, but some near surface smoke is working its way back into the region, which will result in slightly degraded air quality this evening. Can you spot the incoming front based on the smoke forecast?\u201d— NWS Burlington (@NWS Burlington) 1686579093
The worst air quality in Washington, D.C., in any given year is usually on the Fourth of July ... due to firework smoke. That gives you some idea of how rare air this bad is in the DMV; last week, the U.S. Capital endured its worst smoke pollution on record.
Now for the good news: Clear air is expected to stick around this week as winds move the remaining pollutants north and east. There is no guarantee smoke won’t be back later this month or summer, but for now, it appears the Capital region can enjoy a breath of fresh(er) air.
Smoke is expected to billow back over the central United States later this week although the pollution will likely be too high in the atmosphere to impact ground-level air quality significantly. Still, the sun might look a little more red than usual:
\u201cWe had a little break from the smoke, but it's coming back in aloft over the next few days. Visual effects expected with colorful sunrise/set, but good news in that we are not expecting impacts near the surface to spread into SE SD/SW MN/NW IA/NE NE in the near term.\u201d— NWS Sioux Falls (@NWS Sioux Falls) 1686582846
The high-level smoky haze could last through at least Wednesday.
The movement of smoke is famously tricky to predict, but there are a few different models you can use to keep an eye on your area. Here are the models for the next day from the FireSmoke Canada website, which tracks PM2.5 smoke particles at ground level from wildfires across North America. Check the FireSmoke Canada website or NOAA models for the most up-to-date forecasts and keep in mind that, like forecasting the weather, these are not guarantees. Err on the side of caution and protect yourself.
The model for 7 p.m. on June 12. Darker colors indicate higher PM2.5 levels, the particles associated with wildfire smoke. The numbered circles refer to the number of regional wildfires.FireSmoke Canada
The model for 7 a.m. on June 13. FireSmoke Canada
The model for 1 p.m. on June 13. FireSmoke Canada
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.
It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.
As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.
How successful was Moss Landing at enlivening opponents of energy storage? Since the California disaster six months ago, more than 6 gigawatts of BESS has received opposition from activists explicitly tying their campaigns to the incident, Heatmap Pro® researcher Charlie Clynes told me in an interview earlier this month.
Matt Eisenson of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Law agreed that there’s been a spike in opposition, telling me that we are currently seeing “more instances of opposition to battery storage than we have in past years.” And while Eisenson said he couldn’t speak to the impacts of the fire specifically on that rise, he acknowledged that the disaster set “a harmful precedent” at the same time “battery storage is becoming much more present.”
“The type of fire that occurred there is unlikely to occur with modern technology, but the Moss Landing example [now] tends to come up across the country,” Eisenson said.
Some of the fresh opposition is in rural agricultural communities such as Grundy County, Illinois, which just banned energy storage systems indefinitely “until the science is settled.” But the most crucial place to watch seems to be New York City, for two reasons: One, it’s where a lot of energy storage is being developed all at once; and two, it has a hyper-saturated media market where criticism can receive more national media attention than it would in other parts of the country.
Someone who’s felt this pressure firsthand is Nick Lombardi, senior vice president of project development for battery storage company NineDot Energy. NineDot and other battery storage developers had spent years laying the groundwork in New York City to build out the energy storage necessary for the city to meet its net-zero climate goals. More recently they’ve faced crowds of protestors against a battery storage facility in Queens, and in Staten Island endured hecklers at public meetings.
“We’ve been developing projects in New York City for a few years now, and for a long time we didn’t run into opposition to our projects or really any sort of meaningful negative coverage in the press. All of that really changed about six months ago,” Lombardi said.
The battery storage developer insists that opposition to the technology is not popular and represents a fringe group. Lombardi told me that the company has more than 50 battery storage sites in development across New York City, and only faced “durable opposition” at “three or four sites.” The company also told me it has yet to receive the kind of email complaint flood that would demonstrate widespread opposition.
This is visible in the politicians who’ve picked up the anti-BESS mantle: GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s become a champion for the cause, but mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” campaign itself would provide for the construction of these facilities. (While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has not focused on BESS, it’s quite unlikely the climate hawkish democratic socialist would try to derail these projects.)
Lombardi told me he now views Moss Landing as a “catalyst” for opposition in the NYC metro area. “Suddenly there’s national headlines about what’s happening,” he told me. “There were incidents in the past that were in the news, but Moss Landing was headline news for a while, and that combined with the fact people knew it was happening in their city combined to create a new level of awareness.”
He added that six months after the blaze, it feels like developers in the city have a better handle on the situation. “We’ve spent a lot of time in reaction to that to make sure we’re organized and making sure we’re in contact with elected officials, community officials, [and] coordinated with utilities,” Lombardi said.
And more on the biggest conflicts around renewable energy projects in Kentucky, Ohio, and Maryland.
1. St. Croix County, Wisconsin - Solar opponents in this county see themselves as the front line in the fight over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” law and its repeal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
2. Barren County, Kentucky - How much wood could a Wood Duck solar farm chuck if it didn’t get approved in the first place? We may be about to find out.
3. Iberia Parish, Louisiana - Another potential proxy battle over IRA tax credits is going down in Louisiana, where residents are calling to extend a solar moratorium that is about to expire so projects can’t start construction.
4. Baltimore County, Maryland – The fight over a transmission line in Maryland could have lasting impacts for renewable energy across the country.
5. Worcester County, Maryland – Elsewhere in Maryland, the MarWin offshore wind project appears to have landed in the crosshairs of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency.
6. Clark County, Ohio - Consider me wishing Invenergy good luck getting a new solar farm permitted in Ohio.
7. Searcy County, Arkansas - An anti-wind state legislator has gone and posted a slide deck that RWE provided to county officials, ginning up fresh uproar against potential wind development.
Talking local development moratoria with Heatmap’s own Charlie Clynes.
This week’s conversation is special: I chatted with Charlie Clynes, Heatmap Pro®’s very own in-house researcher. Charlie just released a herculean project tracking all of the nation’s county-level moratoria and restrictive ordinances attacking renewable energy. The conclusion? Essentially a fifth of the country is now either closed off to solar and wind entirely or much harder to build. I decided to chat with him about the work so you could hear about why it’s an important report you should most definitely read.
The following chat was lightly edited for clarity. Let’s dive in.
Tell me about the project you embarked on here.
Heatmap’s research team set out last June to call every county in the United States that had zoning authority, and we asked them if they’ve passed ordinances to restrict renewable energy, or if they have renewable energy projects in their communities that have been opposed. There’s specific criteria we’ve used to determine if an ordinance is restrictive, but by and large, it’s pretty easy to tell once a county sends you an ordinance if it is going to restrict development or not.
The vast majority of counties responded, and this has been a process that’s allowed us to gather an extraordinary amount of data about whether counties have been restricting wind, solar and other renewables. The topline conclusion is that restrictions are much worse than previously accounted for. I mean, 605 counties now have some type of restriction on renewable energy — setbacks that make it really hard to build wind or solar, moratoriums that outright ban wind and solar. Then there’s 182 municipality laws where counties don’t have zoning jurisdiction.
We’re seeing this pretty much everywhere throughout the country. No place is safe except for states who put in laws preventing jurisdictions from passing restrictions — and even then, renewable energy companies are facing uphill battles in getting to a point in the process where the state will step in and overrule a county restriction. It’s bad.
Getting into the nitty-gritty, what has changed in the past few years? We’ve known these numbers were increasing, but what do you think accounts for the status we’re in now?
One is we’re seeing a high number of renewables coming into communities. But I think attitudes started changing too, especially in places that have been fairly saturated with renewable energy like Virginia, where solar’s been a presence for more than a decade now. There have been enough projects where people have bad experiences that color their opinion of the industry as a whole.
There’s also a few narratives that have taken shape. One is this idea solar is eating up prime farmland, or that it’ll erode the rural character of that area. Another big one is the environment, especially with wind on bird deaths, even though the number of birds killed by wind sounds big until you compare it to other sources.
There are so many developers and so many projects in so many places of the world that there are examples where either something goes wrong with a project or a developer doesn’t follow best practices. I think those have a lot more staying power in the public perception of renewable energy than the many successful projects that go without a hiccup and don’t bother people.
Are people saying no outright to renewable energy? Or is this saying yes with some form of reasonable restrictions?
It depends on where you look and how much solar there is in a community.
One thing I’ve seen in Virginia, for example, is counties setting caps on the total acreage solar can occupy, and those will be only 20 acres above the solar already built, so it’s effectively blocking solar. In places that are more sparsely populated, you tend to see restrictive setbacks that have the effect of outright banning wind — mile-long setbacks are often insurmountable for developers. Or there’ll be regulations to constrict the scale of a project quite a bit but don’t ban the technologies outright.
What in your research gives you hope?
States that have administrations determined to build out renewables have started to override these local restrictions: Michigan, Illinois, Washington, California, a few others. This is almost certainly going to have an impact.
I think the other thing is there are places in red states that have had very good experiences with renewable energy by and large. Texas, despite having the most wind generation in the nation, has not seen nearly as much opposition to wind, solar, and battery storage. It’s owing to the fact people in Texas generally are inclined to support energy projects in general and have seen wind and solar bring money into these small communities that otherwise wouldn’t get a lot of attention.