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The urgency of the green transition hasn’t made tribal concerns any less important.

It’s windy in the Great Plains and it’s sunny in the Southwest. These two basic geographic facts underscore much of the green energy transition in the United States — and put many Native American tribes squarely in the middle of that process.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has estimated that “American Indian land comprises approximately 2% of U.S. land but contains an estimated 5% of all renewable energy resources,” with an especially large amount of potential solar power. Over the past few months, a spate of renewable energy projects across the country have found themselves entangled with courts, regulators, and tribal governments over how and under what circumstances they are permitted on — or even near — tribal lands.
In Oklahoma, a federal judge ordered that dozens of wind turbines be removed after ruling that the developers had violated federal law by not seeking mineral rights. In Arizona, two tribes and two nonprofits sued the Bureau of Land Management, objecting to the planned route of a massive transmission project. Tribes objected to designating an area off the Oregon coast for wind farming, and federal energy regulators announced a new policy requiring energy developers to get tribal permission prior to seeking any permits for projects on tribal lands.
“We are establishing a new policy that the Commission will not issue preliminary permits for projects proposing to use Tribal lands if the Tribe on whose lands the project is to be located opposes the permit,” the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said in a filing denying a trio of pumped-storage hydropower projects on Navajo Nation land in Arizona and New Mexico.
“Navajo Nation is in support of solar power, and the Navajo utility has developed some solar sites, which are operating right now,” George Hardeen, public relations director for the Navajo Nation leadership, told me. “But pumped storage, we’re not quite ready for that.” Just like everyone else in Arizona, New Mexico, or neighboring states, the Navajo Nation has a heavily contested relationship with its surrounding water resources. The Navajo Nation recently lost a case in the Supreme Court, where it argued the federal government had an obligation to meet its water needs under 1868 and 1849 treaties.
While the legal issues around tribal governance are distinct, the dilemmas and tradeoffs of energy development — renewable or otherwise — are not. Energy production itself is nothing new for the Navajo Nation. The now-shuttered Navajo Generating Station operated for almost 50 years with a workforce that was almost exclusively Navajo. Along with a neighboring mine, it generated tens of millions of dollars of royalty and other payments for the Navajo Nation and the neighboring Hopi Tribe.
But the competing goals of speedy renewable energy development versus protection of the landscape become heightened on native lands.
“You’ve always had consultation requirements,” Heather Tanana, a visiting professor at the University of California-Irvine, told me. “The big change is the weight of the tribal voice in that process,” describing FERC’s policy as a “shift to actual empowerment of tribal communities who decide what is going to happen.”
FERC’s decision is consistent with a Biden administration-wide effort to empower tribes on a “nation-to-nation” basis. This effort has naturally heavily involved the Department of Interior — led for the first time by a Native American, Pueblo of Laguna member Deb Haaland — which oversees the Bureau of Indian Affairs, as well as a bevy of agencies including the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which play major roles in energy infrastructure.
“Having the agency take this position is consistent is what the administration has said it should do,” Tanana said. “It’s good because it shows something tangible and real, and not just good intentions that haven’t always played out well in the past.”
That’s putting it mildly. The history of energy development and Native Americans is marked by exploitation, whether the subject is the Osage murders of the 1920s, lung cancer among Navajo uranium mine workers, or the construction of dams that obliterated native fishing grounds.
“The Biden administration is very sensitive to tribal concerns,” Warigia Bowman, a law professor at the University of Tulsa, told me. But enforcement of the new requirements will be up to regulators and prosecutors across the country, Bowman said.
That enforcement has been especially harsh in Osage County. Typically, landowners control both the surface and mineral rights of their land, which essentially means they can sell both the land they own and the rights to what’s underneath it. But the mineral rights on the Osage Nation Reservation are exclusively owned by the Osage Tribe and overseen by the elected Osage Minerals Council, which can lease out mineral rights. And, like many in the petroleum business, the Osage Minerals Council has lamented limitations on drilling.
“What’s special about the Osage wind case is the specifics of land ownership for the Osage,” Bowman said. “It’s unusual to have surface and mineral rights separated.”
It’s these mineral rights that have turned into a massive headache for wind developers. The energy developers Enel and Osage Wind leased over 8,000 acres in Osage County for a wind farm starting in 2010. The Osage Minerals Council sued in 2011, saying the project would block its ability to develop any resources underneath the area the developers had leased. Then the federal government sued in 2014 when construction began, arguing that the excavation for the wind turbines’ foundations constituted mining without permission.
Late last year, a federal judge ruled that the developers owed monetary damages and the “ejectment of the wind towers.” The developers estimated that complying with the injunction would cost almost $260 million.
And energy development doesn't have to be on tribal land in order to potentially run afoul of laws and regulations mandating consultation. The Tohono O’odham Nation and San Carlos Apache Tribe, along with the nonprofit groups the Center for Biological Diversity and Archeological Southwest, sued the Bureau of Land Management seeking an injunction to stop construction of the SunZia transmission line, a decades-in-the-waiting 4,500 megawatt project that seeks to bring wind energy west from New Mexico. The project got approval from BLM last spring. The suit filed in January argued that the developers failed to adequately consult with tribes over “sacred and cultural resources in the San Pedro Valley,” even if the proposed route was on a mixture of federal, state, and private land.
“Under the [National Historic Preservation Act], agencies are required to make a good faith effort to identify Indian tribes for consultation,” Tory Fodder, a law professor at the University of Arizona, explained to me in an email. “The NHPA provides fairly robust consultation mechanisms for tribal cultural and religious sites that are not necessarily confined to the reservation of a tribe.” Since, Fodder said, both the Tohono O’odham Nation and the San Carlos Apache claim “ancestral connections to the area,” they should have been consulted early on.
The BLM and Pattern Energy both claim they were. In a response to the suit, the federal government argued that it had “engaged in lengthy, good faith consultation efforts with the Tribes and other consulting parties regarding the San Pedro Valley,” and that the route had been finalized since 2015, giving the tribes and nonprofits years to intervene.
In an emailed statement, Pattern Energy’s vice president of environmental and permitting, Natalie McCue, said: “Respecting tribal sovereignty and completing the United States’ largest clean energy project is not a binary choice. We deeply respect the Tohono O’odham Nation’s and the San Carlos Apache Tribe’s right to self-governance and to express their views on cultural protection. Given this, we were saddened by the decision to pursue legal action, especially given our commitment to open, good-faith dialogue on these vital issues.” Oral arguments in the case are scheduled for March; in the meantime, construction has been allowed to continue.
On the West Coast, there's growing tribal opposition to the beginning of a process for offshore wind development. The Confederated Tribes of the Coos, Lower Umpqua, and Siuslaw Indians said they were “extremely disappointed” in the Bureau Ocean Energy Management’s decision to designate two areas off the Oregon coast for wind energy development.
While the BOEM said the designation only came after “extensive engagement and feedback from the state, Tribes, local residents, ocean users, federal government partners, and other members of the public,” the Confederated Tribes contend that the areas “are within the Tribe’s ancestral territory, contain viewsheds of significant cultural and historic significance to the Tribe, and are important areas for Tribal fishing,” and that the Tribes only became aware of the designation from the Oregon Governor’s office, not the BOEM directly.
Although the stakes of the zero-carbon transition are new, the issues of sovereignty and exploitation of Native American lands are as old as the United States. “The Tribe will not stand by while a project is developed that causes it more harm than good,” the Tribal Council Chair Brad Kneaper said in a release. “This is simply green colonialism.”
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Europe’s heat wave has finally ended — and good riddance. The continent recorded at least 1,300 excess deaths over the past week, according to the World Health Organization. Mortuaries in Paris and other cities were overwhelmed.
North America will now get its turn with summertime heat: At the end of this week, New York, Philadelphia, and other cities down the East Coast — including several where World Cup knock-out games will be played — could see their hottest temperatures since 2012.
As I wrote last week, these bouts of extreme heat are caused by climate change. Severe and record-breaking heat waves are one of anthropogenic global warming’s clearest and most indisputable symptoms.
But as I also wrote last week, Europe and North America have very different ways of dealing with extreme heat. Most Americans have air conditioners, but they remain rare in Europe — and especially in northwestern Europe, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Since last week, I have read countless explanations about why Europeans don’t have air conditioning at the same rates as Americans — or even Canadians. Perhaps Americans and Europeans have a different relationship to suffering, goes one theory, or maybe the European left has managed to politicize air conditioning in a way that the American left has never tried to do. The cultural divide here is more real than I once would have thought: In Paris, the deputy mayor chided Americans for even asking about Europe’s AC use; she argued air conditioning “contributes and aggravates” to air pollution and climate change. In Florida, meanwhile, we name elementary schools after the inventor of mechanical refrigeration.
Throughout all of this, I’ve assumed that Europeans would purchase air conditioning as the warming climate demands it. Much like the Pacific Northwest, where AC adoption lagged the rest of the United States for decades, much of Western Europe used to enjoy a climate where AC was unnecessary. That changed in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia after the 2021 heat dome. Now that summertime highs are rising in Europe, too, it seemed obvious that people would go out and buy window unit air conditioners — and where they can’t buy them because of local laws, they’ll push for reform.
It had not occurred to me, though, that a simpler obstacle might be blocking Europe’s adoption of AC. Jonas Nahm, a professor of industrial strategy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote in with a question: What if it’s the windows?
Do you know about Europe’s superior windows? Unlike the United States, where most of our windows hang on a sash and open vertically, the dominant form of window in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, and the rest of the Blue Banana are tilt-turn windows. This distinctive form of fenestration has a dual-action hinge, meaning it can tilt, opening at the top to let in light or air; and turn, swinging fully open on its hinges.
Tilt-turn windows are superior in most respects to our American sash windows or casements. Because they close more securely, they provide better protection against the elements; because you can swing them into a room and access both sides of a pane, they are easier to clean; and because you can tilt them from the bottom and crack them open at the top, they can ventilate a room without creating a draft. They are also ubiquitous in western Europe. Asked once what Germany meant to her, Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel replied: “I think of well-sealed windows. No other country can make such well-sealed and nice windows.”
They are superior in all respects, I would say — except for one. When Americans in older buildings want to get an air conditioner, we go and buy a window unit, then we slide up the sash window and install it. But tilt-turn windows are not so accommodating. Those who have them must instead go and buy a portable AC unit that sits entirely inside a room, snake its hose out the top of the window, and then either purchase a fabric barrier or jerry-rig towels to seal off the crevices.
If you can’t buy a window unit, in other words, then your air conditioning options narrow. You either have to install an unsightly portable AC unit. Or you have to retrofit your entire home and install mini-splits — a far more expensive renovation that may not even be possible in historic or rental buildings.
Can windows alone explain Europe’s differing approach to air conditioning? It certainly explains a gap I’ve noticed in the discourse, where some Europeans seem to see air conditioning as an exorbitant luxury and Americans see it as, well, just another $250 purchase. It matters, too, that most Europeans heat their homes with radiators, meaning there is no forced-air ductwork system that a central air system can piggyback on. (Of course, my 100-year-old apartment building has radiators, too — but we have sash windows, and therefore window units.)
As it happens, I’ve lived in a home in the United States that had tilt-turn windows. An old German landlord of mine installed them in about half the house. We had window units too, but we stuck them in the few rooms that still had sash windows.
But of course, maybe what you don't have always seems more exotic to you. Not so long ago, I found myself in a smoky Berlin bar talking with a German about how much I liked and respected their windows. My companion was confused and asked me what windows were like in America, and I pantomimed opening a sash window and sticking my head out the bottom.
He was thrilled. Wait, he replied, just like in the movies?
I promise tomorrow's newsletter will not be about windows or air conditioning.
Monday’s Supreme Court decision will give Trump sweeping powers over the agency he already effectively controls.
The Supreme Court on Monday morning effectively OK-ed the firing of commissioners at independent agencies with no showing of cause, overturning a 90-plus-year-old precedent and granting the president seemingly vast powers to reshape the federal regulatory state. That likely includes agencies crucial to energy planning and governance, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (though not, notably, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors).
Harvard Law School professor Ari Peskoe argued in an amicus brief for the case alongside a bipartisan gaggle of 11 former FERC commissioners that deciding in the president’s favor on this case “would bulldoze the structural supports that Congress built into ratemaking commissions to protect its price-setting power from abuse,” protections that “foster regulatory stability for industries investing in essential infrastructure.”
So what’s left of that stability following the Supreme Court’s decision? “It’s been 3+ hours and the President has yet to fire a FERC Commissioner. So no immediate effect,” Peskoe told me in an email.
The case stemmed from Trump’s firing of Rebecca Slaughter, a member of the Federal Trade Commission, because her presence on the Commission would, he said, be “inconsistent with my Administration’s priorities.” Slaughter sued to be reinstated under a precedent established in the 1935 case Humphrey’s Executor v. the United States, in which the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution did not give the president “illimitable power of removal” over government officials. On Monday, the court disagreed, deciding instead that the President should have wide discretion over the composition of agencies like the FTC, which “unquestionably exercises executive power and must therefore be controlled by the Chief Executive,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in his opinion for the majority.
In her dissent on the decision, which split 6-3 along the usual partisan lines, Justice Sonia Sotomayor listed FERC and the NRC as among the “dozens of independent commissions are now likely to become purely executive agencies, shifting tremendous power over broad swaths of American life into the President’s hands.”
Agencies like FERC tend not to be as explicitly politicized or partisan as, say, the Environmental Protection Agency, which is led by a single administrator who serves at the pleasure of the president, or the National Labor Relations Board or Federal Election Commission, which oversee areas of law and policy with stark partisan and ideological stakes. This is partly because FERC justifies decisions on electricity and natural gas policy with reference to “technical expertise,” Peskoe’s fellow Harvard Law School professor and former Obama White House official Jody Freeman told me. (If you have any doubt about this, go read through some 1,000-page-plus FERC orders.
FERC also tends to be more collegial than most other independent agencies. Meetings often include encomia to the agency’s chair for being consensus-oriented, and to its staff, who serve commissioners from both parties. Its recent “show cause” orders directing regional electricity markets to prove they’re taking steps to speed up grid interconnection for large new sources of demand garnered a 5-0 majority, with both Democrats on the Commission voting along with their Republican colleagues.
And FERC chairs do occasionally defy the presidents who have appointed them, most notably in Donald Trump’s first term, when then-Chair Neil Chatterjee dismissed Secretary of Energy Rick Perry’s request to support coal and nuclear power plants able to store fuel on site, thus propping up struggling electricity generators.
Interestingly, Chatterjee, who signed the amicus brief to the court, was relatively relaxed about Monday’s decision’s implications for his former agency about. He observed to me in an email, “given that the commission just voted 5-0 on the WH’s biggest priority before FERC I don’t see it being an issue in the near term.”
In other words, FERC and this White House, at least, already see eye to eye.
But that’s no coincidence. Since the beginning of this term, the White House has set out to rein in and control independent agencies, FERC among them. Though Trump initially tapped sitting Republican Commissioner Mark Christie to lead the commission, he ultimately declined to re-nominate Christie for a second five-year term, leading to Christie’s exit from the commission last August.
In his place, the president installed Laura Swett, who has allowed little daylight between the commission’s and the White House’s positions. Both have attempted to keep the focus on balancing the buildout of data centers to serve artificial intelligence while keeping a lid on consumer electricity prices.
While it’s not foreordained that FERC chairs will agree with the presidents that appointed them, even if they’re both members of the same party, Monday’s decision makes disagreement more dangerous for current and future FERC chairs to consider.
“There’s a bigger risk that they’ll have to ultimately yield to political pressure because they’ll have this very overt threat that they’ll be fired,” Freeman told me. “We’re going to see decisions that look more political, that look less expertly driven, and they probably will wax and wane with every new administration, which undermines stability.”
A longtime energy analyst argues that there are no solutions to the hyperscale problem, only tradeoffs.
Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Elon Musk need sign-off from fewer than a dozen board members to commit their companies to multibillion-dollar moves. The power plants that supply their data centers need sign-off from 13 states (plus D.C.), thousands of generators, millions of customers, and a federal regulator whose ratemaking standard predates the personal computer in order to build anything new.
Everyone in tech knows about the CEOs of the foundational artificial intelligence labs. Only energy nerds know the names of the people running our grid operators. That anonymity is a feature, not a bug. Grid operators generally think in decades, not years. But right now, they’re telling the U.S. that it has years, not decades, to figure out its own new path forward.
For decades, this process sufficed for energy generators (and regulators) grown accustomed to gradual, predictable load growth. But over the past several years, the scale and speed of increasing energy demand has overwhelmed the supply -side’s ability to respond. The resulting strain on the grid has reverberated through every rung of the supply chain, delaying development timelines, increasing costs, and elevating energy from political conversations to dinner table discussions.
The loudest creaks and groans are coming from PJM Interconnection, North America’s largest grid operator. Residential bills in the PJM service area are climbing at a dizzying pace. Recent capacity auctions have ended with record prices, which PJM’s own market monitor blames on the explosive growth in data center power demand. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has attempted to pressure PJM to lower its capacity price cap. Even Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has called on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to develop new procedures to help get data centers online faster.
David Mills, PJM’s CEO, published a 70-page report in May acknowledging that current market rules cannot keep pace with AI-driven load growth. And yet he also refused to recommend a path forward, leaving the decision to “state regulators and legislatures, to FERC, to consumers.”
The most essential grid infrastructure, he explained, “is not a price curve or a performance obligation — it is legitimacy.” In other words, what’s broken isn’t a parameter inside the capacity market, but rather the capacity market itself, along with the political conditions under which it operates. PJM calls this the “credibility trap”: high prices accurately signal that new investment is needed, but when those prices become politically untenable, government intervenes and investment stalls.
The fix, Mills writes, “requires structural choices, not just parameter adjustments.”
Mills is speaking to a deeper issue with the grid than its ability to respond to shifting market dynamics, which is that hyperscalers and grid operators are built to solve two different kinds of problems. Hyperscalers solve engineering problems with specifiable objectives, known constraints, verifiable outcomes. Engineering problems reward concentrated authority and unilateral decision-making.
Grid operators, on the other hand, solve coordination problems. The information they rely on to do so is dispersed across millions of stakeholders, continuously revised and often contradictory, and operators’ preferences are not so much known as they are revealed through deliberation. FERC’s standard for wholesale rates is not whether those rates are objectively “correct,” but rather whether the market settled on those rates through fair competition. The process does not just determine the answer, it essentially is the answer.
This construction is the category error driving the current AI-grid collision. The electricity grid is not an engineering problem with coordination problems attached. It is a coordination problem with engineering problems embedded in it. Treat it as the former and you lose all the information that gets generated in the process of market-based price discovery. You also lose all the buy-in that occurs when real people are faced with real trade-offs and have to make hard, binding choices.
Mills did lay out three possible structural paths in his May letter:
These pathways are not equivalent — unlike with an engineering problem, there are no cut-and-dried solutions here. There are only trade-offs and questions about who bears their consequences. Path C is likely the better answer, while Path A is more expedient. The gap between them is the work PJM’s constituents have to manage over the coming years. PJM may choose the wrong path, or arrive at the right one too late.
The alternative is not hypothetical. If hyperscalers aren’t willing to wait for PJM customers to decide which path they want to take (and recent history suggests they are not) they will build behind-the-meter generation, sign bespoke deals with regulated utilities, and restart dormant nuclear plants. America would be left with two grids, one for compute, one for everything else. The first will be reliable and expensive. The second will be cheaper, fragile, and stranded with the costs of the system the first walked away from. The market would lose the dispatch signal, the error-correcting price mechanism, and the legitimacy of the system that has reliably powered the Mid-Atlantic for two decades.
Economist Friedrich Hayek described the limits of humans’ planning capabilities better than anyone in his 1974 Nobel Prize lecture, using the metaphor of the craftsman shaping his handiwork versus the gardener cultivating growth. The craftsman thinks they can make a perfect tool but repeatedly runs up against the boundaries of their own knowledge, whereas the gardener learns to manage new information as it arises, tending not to the product itself but rather to the conditions that produce it.
Hyperscalers are not bad actors. They have legitimate interests and the political capital to help shape the grid’s future. But we should resist the Newtonian urge to meet unexpected, swiftly moving demand with equally swift supply. Markets and physical systems both tend toward equilibrium, but the former finds it through deliberation, not collision. Instead of trying to unilaterally craft a better grid, hyperscalers might find a better path if they work with the practitioners who already know how to garden.