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“We all need to get our heads wrapped around more fire, in more places, at more times of the year.”

When I initially set out to interview Justin Angle, one of the authors of This Is Wildfire: How to Protect Yourself, Your Home, and Your Community in the Age of Heat, I’d expected we’d mostly be talking about California.
The forthcoming book is a practical guide and a history of living in the age of wildfires, and has been an invaluable resource in my own reporting on the subject. Written with environmental journalist Nick Mott, This Is Wildfire springs from the co-authors’ six-part 2021 podcast Fireline, and is shrewdly scheduled to be published on August 29, when western fire season really starts to pick up (you can preorder the book here).
Though midsummer is often considered “peak wildfire season,” it is September and October that are “far more destructive and burn through many more acres” due to the abundance of dried-out vegetation and blustery autumnal winds, the Western Fire Chiefs Association writes. In fact, the 2018 Camp Fire — the most deadly and destructive wildfire in California’s history — didn’t start until early November. But last week, as a benchmark for modern wildfire devastation, the Camp Fire was surpassed by the horrific wildfires in Maui; so far, there are 96 confirmed fatalities, a number that authorities expect to rise as search efforts continue.
When I spoke to Angle at the end of last week, we were both still reeling from the news. Our conversation touched on why the tragedy in Hawaii is “shocking but not surprising,” the practicalities of home-hardening and evacuation preparedness, and how Americans will need to come together to learn to live with wildfire. Our conversation has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
This Is Wildfire feels like a natural progression from your podcast, Fireline, but I wanted to go back before that, to when you first became interested in wildfires. What was — if you’ll excuse the pun — the spark?
It might not seem obvious; I’m a business school professor at the University of Montana. But when I moved here in 2012, it was a particularly bad fire and smoke year and I’d never really been exposed to those things in my life. Living through it for the first time, I quickly learned that fire plays a large role not only in the ecosystem here in the northern Rocky Mountains but also in the culture. Missoula is an epicenter for so much important fire work, whether it’s the smokejumper training center and the base, the Rocky Mountain research lab, or the Forest Service and the University of Montana College of Forestry and Conservation doing some really important fire science.
Many of the people I was meeting were prominent players doing important work on fire. So I set out to understand it myself and quickly realized that there seemed to be a lack of general understanding in the community. You know, you read about wildfires and there will be all kinds of vocabulary and jargon, “type three this,” “type one this,” “incident response team,” all sorts of stuff that seemed like gobbly-gook to the average person. It seemed like there was a need for a general explainer. And I was a podcaster — I’d been doing a current affairs radio show for a few years at the time — and I thought about doing a single episode [on wildfire] and quickly realized that, wow, this is a much bigger project that needs journalistic treatment. I’m not trained in journalism so I teamed up with Nick [Mott], who’s an outstanding journalist, and we made Fireline together.
This has been a strange fire year so far, from the smoke event on the East Coast in June to the deadly fires in Maui this week. I have the uneasy sense that your book is going to be increasingly relevant to people who live beyond the traditional borders of the American West in the coming years. As an expert on the topic of wildfire, what are you making of all this?
It’s shocking but not surprising. If you think back to a very formative moment in our country’s relationship with fire, that was the Big Blowup in 1910 when 3 million acres burned [in the inland Northwest]. The smoke from that event blanketed New York City and caused a lot of folks living in that area to think a lot more about wildfire. So maybe we’re witnessing a similar moment where the smoke effects reach more people.
Fiery images in the media this time of year are common, but seeing it in a place that’s unusual, that people don’t associate with burning to the extent they’re seeing now — maybe it breaks through and helps. I mean, one of the big themes of the book is trying to help people imagine and grasp how they can be a part of solutions moving forward. Maybe this is a little motivation for people to, you know, not necessarily wake up, that might be too pejorative a framing, but for fire to be more on the radar screen and for folks to think, Oh, this is a thing that I should be more cognizant of and be thinking about protecting myself and my family from.
One of the really scary things we saw in the Maui fire was how little time people had to evacuate, in part because the fire spread so quickly and unpredictably due to the high winds. In writing a guide for wildfires, what did you want your readers to understand about what they should do in the seconds and minutes after getting an evacuation alert?
First off, be tuned in to all those sources of information. Be signed up for evacuation notices and air quality notices. How that information is disseminated varies a lot from locality to locality. It’s often organized at the county level, but it’s hard to give a one-size-fits-all recommendation; you really have to investigate it in your own area. But that’s absolutely worth the effort, it’s critical.
In the book, we talk about a simple thing called a go bag. If you live in wildfire-prone lands, or any place where natural disaster is a risk — and that’s almost everywhere now — have a go bag with your essential items ready to go. If you need to scramble out the door in moments, it’s ready with your critical items. And it helps put you in that mindset of preparedness.
The other thing for homeowners, with a wind-driven fire — in Maui, I don’t know exactly how much of this occurred — but one of the biggest risks to homes is floating embers finding a weak spot in your home, whether that’s some pine needles in your gutter, or a wooden roof, or some spare wood under your deck. Understand the risks to your home and how they manifest and the work you can do to make your home safer. That could provide a margin of safety and protection that, as a homeowner, you have a lot of control over. Understand how home ignitions work and how they can be prevented with sound maintenance and in some communities, better zoning and better construction and better materials. Some of it is very much accessible to the individual and some of it is going to take more change at the system and policy level.
How close to your home does a wildfire have to be in order to be considered a threat? When should someone start to follow the progress and alerts?
I would advise any distance, and what I mean by any distance is a couple of considerations. If a fire is throwing smoke into your breathing air, then you should be paying attention, you should be in tune with the air quality ratings and how that has an effect on your health, and you should be moderating your activities according to the air quality.
The studies on embers and how far they can float — it’s up to two miles in some of the studies, although some of these fires are creating more intense wind systems. I don’t think I’d want to put a number on it. If there’s a fire within 20 miles of my home, I’m paying attention to it for sure. It’s most likely throwing smoke my way and these fires can spread really fast.
Understanding not only the distance away, but: What are the prevailing wind patterns? What’s the landscape like between your home and the fire? And how much vegetation is there? What areas of defense are there — existing burn scars or areas that have been thinned from previous work by the Forest Service? What sort of access does the Forest Service and other agencies have to that area? So a few different things make it hard to say, like, “This is the number,” but if you’re getting smoke from a fire, generally speaking, it’s close enough for you to be paying attention.
In the book you write, “When [fire is] on the news, it’s nearly always an enemy — something wreaking havoc that we must put an end to.” How should people who write about and cover wildfires rethink the narrative?
Fire is a scary thing and it’s a scary thing for good reason: It can cause tremendous loss of life and property. But I think the notion that it’s always this terrible thing that we have to eradicate from the natural world is, one, incorrect, and two, impossible.
We got really good at suppressing fire for a really long time — so much so that the public expected it to be this thing that the government did for us. Clearly, seeing by the intensity of many of these fires we’re experiencing, that is no longer the case. These fires, if they get out of hand, nobody can control them.
And the other piece of that is: A certain amount of fire is needed. We actually need more fire at the right times of the year in the right places to create more balance in the ecosystem. Our forests will be more resilient to fire; there will be better species health. Some species of trees and animals require fire to germinate, to be healthy. And so I think framing fires as an enemy, as this imminently scary thing, has had some consequences that we now need to think through a little bit more and with a little bit more complexity.
How do you tell the difference between a good and bad fire?
A fire that can burn without creating any risk to human values, homes, and life; a fire that can rejuvenate a forest, clean out the understory, thin out the trees, and create defensible space for future fires to run into or for firefighters to base operations out of — they’re called “resource benefit fires” by the agencies. The takeaway is that not all fire is bad: some are good and in general, we need more of them.
We need to accept that, and also be more accepting of smoke from prescribed fires at different times than we expect it. Here in Missoula, people commonly expect August to be a smoky time of the year and we brace ourselves for it. But sometimes when we get smoke in May, people get cranky, people get upset, and they might even get a little PTSD. Like, “Oh my gosh, is my summer gonna be ruined.” And you know, the truth of the matter is maybe some smoke in those times, when it’s safer to do prescribed burns, is something we need to adapt to. A lot of times, the smoke from prescribed burns or lower-intensity fires is much less concentrated and much shorter in duration. So cumulative exposure to smoke — even though any exposure can have consequences — might lead to better air quality in general if it is spread across a wider period of time.
That was one of the parts of the book that was both very surprising to me and also a lightbulb moment. I can’t remember what the quote was exactly, but it was something along the lines of, like, You’re going to have smoke one way or the other. Do you want it from a megafire, and to have that horrible choking thick smoke, or from a lower intensity burn?
That’s a quote the Forest Service uses commonly and it’s attributable, to the best of my knowledge, to Mark Finney, a scientist based out here in Missoula. He basically says: “How do you want your smoke and when do you want it?” I mean, you’re going to get it regardless.
One of the things we talked about in the book is the relationship between the climate and fire; higher temperatures mean more fire. If you were to look at the historical relationship between temperature and fire, we’re actually in a fire deficit. You would expect to see more fire right now. That’s largely attributable to our suppression. So that doesn’t necessarily mean what we’re seeing in Maui is the new normal, but I think we all need to get our heads wrapped around more fire, in more places, at more times of the year.
A major theme of This Is Wildfire is that we need to tackle these problems as a community, even when that runs against the rugged individualism and libertarian bent of much of the rural West. Are you optimistic that wildfires are something we can come together on?
I think so, mostly because I think we have to. The fire doesn’t care who you voted for if comes for you and your home. And though there is a sense of rugged individualism in the West, there’s also often a spirit of community, particularly in rural areas.
There are things that people can do at the individual level that we outlined in the book about making sure your home ignition zone is resilient to fire. But your efforts need to be part of a community effort. And that can just increase the need for neighborly relations and making fire more salient in community conversations. I’m optimistic that there is a pathway to more communication and coordination.
Where it gets a little thornier, I think, and where I’m still optimistic but maybe not as optimistic, is: Are we going to be able to have more productive conversations around zoning and building policies and saying, “Hey, is it a good idea to build in that place? Is it a good idea to rebuild in that place? Is that appropriate?”
Historically, particularly with wildfire, we’ve not done a good job of asking the hard questions of whether or not we should build in a certain place and how we should build in a certain place. We’re starting to see more and more of it with hurricanes and tornadoes in a variety of states with a variety of political sentiments, so I am optimistic that it can be done with fire and hopefully some of the fire events that we’re having are going to motivate the necessity for those types of hard conversations.
If there’s one thing readers walk away from your book understanding, what would you want that to be?
That not all fires are bad. Some are really beneficial and we actually, on balance, need more fire in the system. And doing so well, I think, gets us to a healthier place on a variety of levels.
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The U.S.-Israeli campaign will have, if anything, bigger implications for liquified natural gas.
The world’s second largest exporter of liquified natural gas is off the market. Qatar’s state-owned energy company announced Monday morning that its LNG production and export operations were halting “due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities,” including the Raf Laffan plant, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG supplies, according to Bloomberg.
This is very good news for U.S. LNG exporters and very bad news for anyone who’s in the market for seaborne natural gas imports.
Exports from Qatar largely go to Asia, with China as the dominant buyer, according to data from the investment bank Jefferies. Qatar has been exporting LNG since 1996, and is the world’s second largest exporter behind the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Even before the strikes on Qatar’s natural gas infrastructure, all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway linking Gulf oil and gas production to the rest of the world, had “effectively ceased for the time being” due to insurers withdrawing from the market and reports of some ships being attacked, according to the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
But the Strait of Hormuz only connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Its closure does nothing to obstruct passage through, say, the Sabine Pass, which connects Sabine Lake to the Gulf of Mexico, and is the heart of the U.S. LNG industry. With natural gas prices already shooting up, U.S. exporters appear to be in for a bonanza.
“If you’re talking to one of the buyers of LNG from Qatar in Asia and you still need LNG, you’re going to have to bid up somewhere else,” Ira Joseph, senior research associate at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told me. “Financially, this is really good for U.S. LNG. It’s a massive windfall for them.”
And, Joseph said, the crisis is unlikely to feed into domestic electricity prices. While a report issued by the Department of Energy toward the end of the Biden administration found that higher natural gas exports would lead to higher domestic prices for natural gas (and thus higher electricity prices), for the moment at least, export capacity is essentially maxed out, meaning that the increased demand for gas will translate largely into higher prices, not greater supply.
Shares of U.S. LNG exporters were accordingly up in early afternoon trading. Venture, which operates the Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass export terminals in Louisiana, saw its share price rise some 14.5% as of 2 p.m. Monday. Shares in Cheniere Energy, which shipped America’s first LNG cargos in 2016 from Sabine Pass and has additional operations in Texas, were up around 5.5%.
The one U.S. natural gas export project scheduled to start up soon is, of all things, a QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil joint venture just on the other side of the Texas border from the Cheniere Sabine Pass facility. Production is expected to begin there this month.
And Qatar is also in the midst of planning to expand export capacity at home: QatarEnergy awarded engineering and construction contracts for its North Field West project, a move Jefferies had described as part and parcel of Qatar’s strategy of being “the lowest cost LNG producer, [which] remains focused on market share and is unwilling to adjust supply to market conditions.”
Now that loose supplier is off the market.
“Everybody will be competing for the same molecule of LNG. And that makes things very difficult,” Massimo Di Odoardo, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of gas and LNG research, said in a webinar hosted by the firm.
“The gas energy market is structurally more volatile than the oil market. There is no such thing as strategic reserves. There is no such thing as spare capacity. Whenever there’s a shock in the market, the effect on prices is normally very strong, and this is a massive shock in terms of lack of supply,” he said.
Some of the most dramatic effects of this competition for LNG are likely to be felt in South and Southeast Asia, to which Qatar is a major exporter and where importers don’t have the same ability to withstand higher prices as they do in, say, South Korea or Japan.
Rich countries “will perhaps look for LNG from other sources to backfill the shortfall of debt supply, Di Odoardo said. “Countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh might be less inclined to pay these very high prices at the moment.”
Joseph agreed with this view. Of Qatar’s big customers, Joseph said, Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea will likely hang in. But for poorer countries, “if prices get too high, you’re not going to buy the LNG,” he told me. “The loss of this much LNG is not going to be solved just through higher prices.”
The shock to energy prices has given many observers flashbacks to 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped tip Pakistan — which is very populous, very poor, and very reliant on energy imports — into an economic crisis. As that conflict unfolded, natural gas imports were redirected towards richer countries that could pay up, while poorer countries were left stranded in energy poverty.
The current shock to the LNG market, meanwhile, comes at a time when much of the world is rethinking its reliance on the United States, whether as a military partner or an economic one.
The whole scenario contains a distinct irony.
The United States escalated tensions with Iran into a full-scaled military operation with the goal of eliminating the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles and nuclear program and even overthrowing its ruling regime. In response, Iran has lashed out not just at the United States and Israel, but also at its Arab neighbors, including some of the world’s largest oil and gas producers. As a result of that escalation, U.S. energy exporters can expect increased profits in the short term, and the U.S. will likely see more sustained interest in economic partnerships in the medium to long term.
“In the grand scheme of geopolitical risks, this puts a bigger risk on the Middle East versus other regions, and has to be positive in terms of how U.S. energy looks in the global context,” Di Odoardo said.
Current conditions: Springlike weather is bringing rain from Texas to Michigan • A Saharan dust storm known as a calima is headed for Europe, threatening “blood rain” as far north as Luxembourg • The Greenlandic capital of Nuuk is poised for days of snow, but with limited accumulation.

The aerial assault the United States and Israel launched on Iran this past weekend is already sending oil prices upward. By Sunday evening, the price for West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for the oil drilled in the U.S., had risen 2.78% to just over $67 per barrel. Brent crude, the benchmark typically used to measure Europe’s production, 2.87% to nearly $73 per barrel. Murban crude, the benchmark set out of Abu Dhabi, surged by more than 4% to north of $74. By rendering the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway between the United Arab Emirates and Iran through which 15% of global oil flows and which tapers to just 20 miles wide at its narrowest point — impassable, the conflict could send prices per barrel as high as $100 or more, the consultancy Wood Mackenzie warned Sunday night. “The key question is when do vessels re-establish export flows,” Alan Gelder, Wood Mackenzie’s senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets, said in a statement. “No doubt, tanker rates and insurance will increase dramatically, but these costs would only be a small part of the oil price impact associated with a curtailment of oil flows if they last for more than a few days.”
The rise in prices began weeks ago as the biggest U.S. troop buildup in the Middle East since 2003 seemed to presage war. The market isn’t just reflecting a fear of an unpredictable and prolonged halt to tanker traffic through the Strait. Insurers are threatening to cancel policies on vessels that dare to pass the waterway right now, the Financial Times reported. Iranian attacks on buildings and infrastructure belonging to America’s Arab allies across the Persian Gulf suggests the rest of the region’s oil production could face damage. “Right next door, you’ve got Iraq, you’ve got Saudi Arabia, and you’ve got the Emirates and others who collectively are more like 20 million barrels per day. And that is obviously a much bigger deal,” Rory Johnston, petroleum analyst and author of Commodity Context, told Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin.
A North Dakota judge finalized a $345 million judgement against Greenpeace USA on Friday, ordering the American chapter of the famed activist group to pay out the damages from its protests against the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline. The ruling came after judge James Gion decided in October to slash almost half the $667 million that a jury awarded developer Energy Transfer Partners a year ago. The Dallas-based company called the ruling an “important step in this legal process of holding Greenpeace accountable for its unlawful and damaging actions against us.” In its own statement, Greenpeace said, “this is not the end of the case — or Greenpeace USA.” Rather, the group said it will request a new trial and, if necessary, “appeal the decision to the North Dakota Supreme Court.” The organization, which has since its founding in 1971 embarked on audacious acts of protest to raise awareness about environmental destruction, cast its fight against the ruling as a battle to protect Americans’ First Amendment rights. “In the years since the Standing Rock protests, anti-protest laws have spread across the U.S. and the world. Two of the most important components of change and progress throughout human history — free speech and peaceful protest – have never been more endangered,” Greenpeace said in the statement. “We must defend those rights. Our future depends on it.”
Last year, the International Seabed Authority, a little known United Nations agency based in Jamaica, debated how to establish rules for giving private companies permits to collect mineral-rich nodules off the deep ocean floor in waters far from any country’s maritime borders. Under outside pressure from the U.S., which is not a signatory to the ISA and has vowed under the Trump administration to go it alone on deep-sea mining, countries failed to reach an agreement. When the body reconvenes this week in the capital city of Kingston, the head of the ISA is determined to finalize a plan. In an interview with The New York Times, ISA chief Leticia Caravalho promised to broker a deal this year, lest an area in international waters become what she called the Wild West. “The world agreed 30 years ago that this is an area that belongs to all of us, and we should go there collectively,” she said. Banning mining outright, as some countries (and groups such as Greenpeace) have called for, would only take money away from scientific research and delay setting strict environmental protections, she said. “Being able to make the rules before activity starts is unique in human history,” she said.
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The 220-megawatt ACES Delta green hydrogen project in Utah is by far the largest in the U.S. Now it’s ready to launch. As of last week, all 40 of the electrolyzers at the facility were installed and fully operational, supplier HydrogenPro told the trade publication Hydrogen Insight. It’s a critical milestone for a sector facing mounting challenges as the federal tax credit known as 45V begins its earlier phase out next year and the Trump administration yanks funding for the two regional hubs meant to hasten deployment of green hydrogen technology. Not every project is panning out as well. In New York, the developer Plug Power announced plans to abandon a 120-megawatt plant and sell the land to a data center company.
There’s a lot going on in hydrogen, including entirely new colors added to the rainbow scheme that describes how the fuel is made. If you want a quick 101 guide, this episode of Heatmap's Shift Key podcast is a good place to start.
At this stage in the new nuclear race, the company that looks likely to deploy the first small modular reactor in North America is GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy, the U.S.-Japanese joint venture building its debut BWRX-300 at the Darlington nuclear plant in Ontario, Canada. The developer is set to build another one of the third-generation, 300-megawatt reactors at the Tennessee Valley Authority soon after, and, as I reported for Heatmap, received major funding from the Department of Energy last year to pull it off. Until now, five European countries have been considering buying their own BWRX-300s: Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Poland, and Sweden. Now add a sixth. Lithuania just signed onto a memorandum of understanding in Washington promising to assess the potential to deploy the reactor, according to World Nuclear News.
There is a bright spot for clean energy in the Middle East. In Iraq, the first 250-megawatt section of what’s designed to be a 1-gigawatt solar farm is expected to enter operation in the next few days after the facility’s transmission connection powered on for the first time. Located in the Basra region, site of some of the bloodiest battles of the Iraq war, the project is a joint venture between the French giant TotalEnergies, which has a 45% stake; the Basrah Oil Company, which commands 30% of the solar farm; and QatarEnergy, with 25%, according to Renewables Now.
It starts — but doesn’t end — with the Strait of Hormuz.
For the second time in a year, the United States and Israel have launched a major aerial assault on Iran. Strikes were reported across the country early Saturday, targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran has launched attacks on Israel and Gulf nations allied with the U.S., with several of the targets appearing to be American military installations. “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation,” President Trump said in a video posted to Truth Social explaining his rationale for launching the war.
While the conflict has quickly metastasized across the region, it has the potential to affect the entire world by disrupting the production and shipment of oil and natural gas.
Iran and its neighbors on the Persian Gulf are some of the largest oil and gas producers in the world and the country has long threatened to disrupt oil exports as an act of self-defense or retaliation from attack.
That may be already happening. According to data from Bloomberg, some oil tankers are pausing or turning around outside the vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow, deep channel between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and thus to global markets in and bordering the Indian Ocean.
The strait has been “effectively closed,” according to a report from Tasnim, a semi-official news agency linked to the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps. British naval officials also said they had “received multiple reports” of broadcasts that “have claimed that the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) has been closed.” And a European Union naval official told Reuters that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had been broadcasting “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz” to ships in the area. Some tankers are still navigating the strait, according to marine tracking data from Kpler.
But it’s questionable whether Iran can actually maintain any attempted closure of the strait, whether by laying mines or directly threatening and attacking ships.
So far, U.S. attacks are “targeting, fairly heavily, naval assets and assets that are close to the Gulf,” Greg Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told me, which “suggests that they are trying to degrade Iran’s ability to disrupt energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The U.S. is “trying to reduce the risks of Iranian effort to close the strait as part of this operation, rather than waiting to see if the Iranians escalate in that direction. The Iranians have responded by claiming that the strait has been closed. The problem for them now, though, is that they’ll have to enforce that threat.”
Closing the strait was a “tail risk” that had been roiling the oil market in the lead-up to Trump’s decision to launch the attack, Rory Johnston, petroleum analyst and author of Commodity Context, told me.
Global oil prices had gotten skittish over the past weeks, with the Brent crude benchmark getting as low at $66.30 per barrel in early February and getting near $73 per barrel on Friday. Brent prices approached $80 per barrel last June during the 12 Day War between Iran and Israel.
While the market could likely weather disruption to Iran’s own exports, jumpy behavior in the market was due to pricing in an enhanced risk of a region-wide calamity. Options traders especially were “attempting to hedge that enormous tail risk,” Johnston said, and “that was really moving the market.”
And even if the strait is not directly closed off by the Iranian military, ships may find it financially onerous to attempt the passage. “Insurers told ship owners on Saturday they would cancel policies and raise coverage prices for vessels travelling through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran,” the Financial Times reported Saturday.
Another risk to the region’s oil sector is that Iran could retaliate by striking oil production and exporting infrastructure in neighboring countries, Johnston told me. “Right next door, you’ve got Iraq, you’ve got Saudi Arabia, and you’ve got the Emirates and others who collectively are more like 20 million barrels per day. And that is obviously a much bigger deal,” Johnston said, comparing their production to Iran’s own oil industry.
Of course, Iran is still a major exporter despite U.S. sanctions; in the days running up to the U.S. attack, it was shipping out around 3 million barrels per day from Kharg Island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from Bloomberg, almost triple its exports from equivalent dates in January and nearly its entire daily production.
Iran’s exports “had actually surged immediately ahead of what’s gone down over the past 24 hours,” Johnston told me. “In the past couple days, you’d seen a large surge of tankers departing Kharg Island, and the inventories on Kharg Island being drawn down, which is kind of what you would do if you expected that your exports were about to get disrupted.”
To the extent Iranian oil exports are cut off, that could be a big deal for China, which has become the number one destination for Middle East oil shipments. Beijing has been building up stockpiles of oil, likely preparing for the risk that sanctioned exporters like Iran and Venezuela would go off the market, as well as wider risks to exports from the Middle East.
“China is highly concerned over the military strikes against Iran,” the Chinese foreign ministry wrote on X. “China calls for an immediate stop of the military actions, no further escalation of the tense situation, resumption of dialogue and negotiation, and efforts to uphold peace and stability in the Middle East.”
Last year, China began to substantially increase its stockpiling of oil, going from 84,000 barrels per day to 430,000 barrels per day, some 83% of the growth of its imports, according to data and estimates from Rystad Energy and Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.
While the U.S. is now far less reliant on oil exports from the Middle East, oil and gas is still a global market. If Middle Eastern oil and gas exports are disrupted, that will likely increase the price of energy — whether it’s gasoline, electricity, or even home heating — as American energy producers can sell their barrels and BTUs at higher prices globally.