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“We all need to get our heads wrapped around more fire, in more places, at more times of the year.”

When I initially set out to interview Justin Angle, one of the authors of This Is Wildfire: How to Protect Yourself, Your Home, and Your Community in the Age of Heat, I’d expected we’d mostly be talking about California.
The forthcoming book is a practical guide and a history of living in the age of wildfires, and has been an invaluable resource in my own reporting on the subject. Written with environmental journalist Nick Mott, This Is Wildfire springs from the co-authors’ six-part 2021 podcast Fireline, and is shrewdly scheduled to be published on August 29, when western fire season really starts to pick up (you can preorder the book here).
Though midsummer is often considered “peak wildfire season,” it is September and October that are “far more destructive and burn through many more acres” due to the abundance of dried-out vegetation and blustery autumnal winds, the Western Fire Chiefs Association writes. In fact, the 2018 Camp Fire — the most deadly and destructive wildfire in California’s history — didn’t start until early November. But last week, as a benchmark for modern wildfire devastation, the Camp Fire was surpassed by the horrific wildfires in Maui; so far, there are 96 confirmed fatalities, a number that authorities expect to rise as search efforts continue.
When I spoke to Angle at the end of last week, we were both still reeling from the news. Our conversation touched on why the tragedy in Hawaii is “shocking but not surprising,” the practicalities of home-hardening and evacuation preparedness, and how Americans will need to come together to learn to live with wildfire. Our conversation has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
This Is Wildfire feels like a natural progression from your podcast, Fireline, but I wanted to go back before that, to when you first became interested in wildfires. What was — if you’ll excuse the pun — the spark?
It might not seem obvious; I’m a business school professor at the University of Montana. But when I moved here in 2012, it was a particularly bad fire and smoke year and I’d never really been exposed to those things in my life. Living through it for the first time, I quickly learned that fire plays a large role not only in the ecosystem here in the northern Rocky Mountains but also in the culture. Missoula is an epicenter for so much important fire work, whether it’s the smokejumper training center and the base, the Rocky Mountain research lab, or the Forest Service and the University of Montana College of Forestry and Conservation doing some really important fire science.
Many of the people I was meeting were prominent players doing important work on fire. So I set out to understand it myself and quickly realized that there seemed to be a lack of general understanding in the community. You know, you read about wildfires and there will be all kinds of vocabulary and jargon, “type three this,” “type one this,” “incident response team,” all sorts of stuff that seemed like gobbly-gook to the average person. It seemed like there was a need for a general explainer. And I was a podcaster — I’d been doing a current affairs radio show for a few years at the time — and I thought about doing a single episode [on wildfire] and quickly realized that, wow, this is a much bigger project that needs journalistic treatment. I’m not trained in journalism so I teamed up with Nick [Mott], who’s an outstanding journalist, and we made Fireline together.
This has been a strange fire year so far, from the smoke event on the East Coast in June to the deadly fires in Maui this week. I have the uneasy sense that your book is going to be increasingly relevant to people who live beyond the traditional borders of the American West in the coming years. As an expert on the topic of wildfire, what are you making of all this?
It’s shocking but not surprising. If you think back to a very formative moment in our country’s relationship with fire, that was the Big Blowup in 1910 when 3 million acres burned [in the inland Northwest]. The smoke from that event blanketed New York City and caused a lot of folks living in that area to think a lot more about wildfire. So maybe we’re witnessing a similar moment where the smoke effects reach more people.
Fiery images in the media this time of year are common, but seeing it in a place that’s unusual, that people don’t associate with burning to the extent they’re seeing now — maybe it breaks through and helps. I mean, one of the big themes of the book is trying to help people imagine and grasp how they can be a part of solutions moving forward. Maybe this is a little motivation for people to, you know, not necessarily wake up, that might be too pejorative a framing, but for fire to be more on the radar screen and for folks to think, Oh, this is a thing that I should be more cognizant of and be thinking about protecting myself and my family from.
One of the really scary things we saw in the Maui fire was how little time people had to evacuate, in part because the fire spread so quickly and unpredictably due to the high winds. In writing a guide for wildfires, what did you want your readers to understand about what they should do in the seconds and minutes after getting an evacuation alert?
First off, be tuned in to all those sources of information. Be signed up for evacuation notices and air quality notices. How that information is disseminated varies a lot from locality to locality. It’s often organized at the county level, but it’s hard to give a one-size-fits-all recommendation; you really have to investigate it in your own area. But that’s absolutely worth the effort, it’s critical.
In the book, we talk about a simple thing called a go bag. If you live in wildfire-prone lands, or any place where natural disaster is a risk — and that’s almost everywhere now — have a go bag with your essential items ready to go. If you need to scramble out the door in moments, it’s ready with your critical items. And it helps put you in that mindset of preparedness.
The other thing for homeowners, with a wind-driven fire — in Maui, I don’t know exactly how much of this occurred — but one of the biggest risks to homes is floating embers finding a weak spot in your home, whether that’s some pine needles in your gutter, or a wooden roof, or some spare wood under your deck. Understand the risks to your home and how they manifest and the work you can do to make your home safer. That could provide a margin of safety and protection that, as a homeowner, you have a lot of control over. Understand how home ignitions work and how they can be prevented with sound maintenance and in some communities, better zoning and better construction and better materials. Some of it is very much accessible to the individual and some of it is going to take more change at the system and policy level.
How close to your home does a wildfire have to be in order to be considered a threat? When should someone start to follow the progress and alerts?
I would advise any distance, and what I mean by any distance is a couple of considerations. If a fire is throwing smoke into your breathing air, then you should be paying attention, you should be in tune with the air quality ratings and how that has an effect on your health, and you should be moderating your activities according to the air quality.
The studies on embers and how far they can float — it’s up to two miles in some of the studies, although some of these fires are creating more intense wind systems. I don’t think I’d want to put a number on it. If there’s a fire within 20 miles of my home, I’m paying attention to it for sure. It’s most likely throwing smoke my way and these fires can spread really fast.
Understanding not only the distance away, but: What are the prevailing wind patterns? What’s the landscape like between your home and the fire? And how much vegetation is there? What areas of defense are there — existing burn scars or areas that have been thinned from previous work by the Forest Service? What sort of access does the Forest Service and other agencies have to that area? So a few different things make it hard to say, like, “This is the number,” but if you’re getting smoke from a fire, generally speaking, it’s close enough for you to be paying attention.
In the book you write, “When [fire is] on the news, it’s nearly always an enemy — something wreaking havoc that we must put an end to.” How should people who write about and cover wildfires rethink the narrative?
Fire is a scary thing and it’s a scary thing for good reason: It can cause tremendous loss of life and property. But I think the notion that it’s always this terrible thing that we have to eradicate from the natural world is, one, incorrect, and two, impossible.
We got really good at suppressing fire for a really long time — so much so that the public expected it to be this thing that the government did for us. Clearly, seeing by the intensity of many of these fires we’re experiencing, that is no longer the case. These fires, if they get out of hand, nobody can control them.
And the other piece of that is: A certain amount of fire is needed. We actually need more fire at the right times of the year in the right places to create more balance in the ecosystem. Our forests will be more resilient to fire; there will be better species health. Some species of trees and animals require fire to germinate, to be healthy. And so I think framing fires as an enemy, as this imminently scary thing, has had some consequences that we now need to think through a little bit more and with a little bit more complexity.
How do you tell the difference between a good and bad fire?
A fire that can burn without creating any risk to human values, homes, and life; a fire that can rejuvenate a forest, clean out the understory, thin out the trees, and create defensible space for future fires to run into or for firefighters to base operations out of — they’re called “resource benefit fires” by the agencies. The takeaway is that not all fire is bad: some are good and in general, we need more of them.
We need to accept that, and also be more accepting of smoke from prescribed fires at different times than we expect it. Here in Missoula, people commonly expect August to be a smoky time of the year and we brace ourselves for it. But sometimes when we get smoke in May, people get cranky, people get upset, and they might even get a little PTSD. Like, “Oh my gosh, is my summer gonna be ruined.” And you know, the truth of the matter is maybe some smoke in those times, when it’s safer to do prescribed burns, is something we need to adapt to. A lot of times, the smoke from prescribed burns or lower-intensity fires is much less concentrated and much shorter in duration. So cumulative exposure to smoke — even though any exposure can have consequences — might lead to better air quality in general if it is spread across a wider period of time.
That was one of the parts of the book that was both very surprising to me and also a lightbulb moment. I can’t remember what the quote was exactly, but it was something along the lines of, like, You’re going to have smoke one way or the other. Do you want it from a megafire, and to have that horrible choking thick smoke, or from a lower intensity burn?
That’s a quote the Forest Service uses commonly and it’s attributable, to the best of my knowledge, to Mark Finney, a scientist based out here in Missoula. He basically says: “How do you want your smoke and when do you want it?” I mean, you’re going to get it regardless.
One of the things we talked about in the book is the relationship between the climate and fire; higher temperatures mean more fire. If you were to look at the historical relationship between temperature and fire, we’re actually in a fire deficit. You would expect to see more fire right now. That’s largely attributable to our suppression. So that doesn’t necessarily mean what we’re seeing in Maui is the new normal, but I think we all need to get our heads wrapped around more fire, in more places, at more times of the year.
A major theme of This Is Wildfire is that we need to tackle these problems as a community, even when that runs against the rugged individualism and libertarian bent of much of the rural West. Are you optimistic that wildfires are something we can come together on?
I think so, mostly because I think we have to. The fire doesn’t care who you voted for if comes for you and your home. And though there is a sense of rugged individualism in the West, there’s also often a spirit of community, particularly in rural areas.
There are things that people can do at the individual level that we outlined in the book about making sure your home ignition zone is resilient to fire. But your efforts need to be part of a community effort. And that can just increase the need for neighborly relations and making fire more salient in community conversations. I’m optimistic that there is a pathway to more communication and coordination.
Where it gets a little thornier, I think, and where I’m still optimistic but maybe not as optimistic, is: Are we going to be able to have more productive conversations around zoning and building policies and saying, “Hey, is it a good idea to build in that place? Is it a good idea to rebuild in that place? Is that appropriate?”
Historically, particularly with wildfire, we’ve not done a good job of asking the hard questions of whether or not we should build in a certain place and how we should build in a certain place. We’re starting to see more and more of it with hurricanes and tornadoes in a variety of states with a variety of political sentiments, so I am optimistic that it can be done with fire and hopefully some of the fire events that we’re having are going to motivate the necessity for those types of hard conversations.
If there’s one thing readers walk away from your book understanding, what would you want that to be?
That not all fires are bad. Some are really beneficial and we actually, on balance, need more fire in the system. And doing so well, I think, gets us to a healthier place on a variety of levels.
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New research from Climate Central estimates the rise in heat-related emergency room visits due to climate change.
2027 is very likely to be the hottest year ever recorded. Though heat was the climate story of the summer — the ocean heat that dictates the severity of El Niño; the back-to-back heat domes in Europe that killed an estimated 35,000 people; the U.S. experiencing its hottest month in 130 years, breaking the Dust Bowl record — what lies ahead will be, in all likelihood, nothing our species has ever experienced before.
We need to get better at understanding and adapting to extreme heat because lives are on the line. But there is also a lot of bad stuff that happens to people before they actually die from the heat. While excess mortality rates are an important (albeit tricky) way of measuring how bad a heat wave is, climate change-related heat is also fueling an increase in emergency room visits, new peer-reviewed research by Climate Central found.
In a study released Wednesday looking at warm months in the years 2018 to 2025, Climate Central found that the observed rate of heat-related ER visits averaged 130 per 100,000 total visits, compared to a modeled rate of just 95 visits under counterfactual temperature conditions — that is, what temperatures would be without the influence of human-caused climate change. That means human-caused planetary warming directly accounts for about 35 visits per 100,000, or 27% of heat-related emergencies.
While the Sun Belt had the highest overall rates of heat-related ER visits, as expected, the largest relative climate fingerprint appeared in the Northeast (41%) and New England (37%), likely because these regions are far less acclimated to (or built for) extreme heat. Likewise, while July had the highest overall number of ER visits, being the hottest month of the year in the U.S., September showed the highest percentage attributable to climate change (33%) as heat impacts have begun to extend later into the fall.
Measuring emergency room visits might seem superfluous compared to measuring deaths, the latter being the more traditional headline number after an extreme weather-related tragedy. But Kristina Dahl, the vice president for science at Climate Central, told me that her group’s research is part of an emerging branch of attribution science called impact attribution.
“We’re trying to go beyond attributing the physical climate variables like high temperature and see how climate influence percolates into the whole chain of events,” Dahl said. “There’s a lot of literature that shows that heat-related illness increases when temperature increases, and there are a lot of studies that translate high temperatures into deaths and heat-related mortality. But we haven’t seen anything that looks at the lower-level health impacts related to heat exposure.”
Lower-level health impacts are crucial to understand, though. For one thing, more ER visits strain health systems in potentially lethal ways as wait times, premature discharges, and occupancy climb, resources dwindle, and care is rationed, earlier research has found.
Take the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome, the most extreme three days in the entire Climate Central record, with an observed rate of 6,763 heat-related ER visits per 100,000. About 1,834 of those visits, or 27%, are attributable to climate change, the researchers found. The Pacific Northwest “probably still would have seen a big spike in ER visits for heat-related illness during that event, even without climate change, because it was so extreme,” Dahl told me. But even a handful more heat patients than usual can gum up an ER, since treating conditions such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke requires lowering a person’s core body temperature slowly back to its normal range. Separate research has found that hospitals are more likely to discharge patients early to free up beds during heat waves, also raising mortality rates.
A visit to the ER isn’t just scary and disruptive; it can also be extremely expensive for whoever’s in the bed. “Our healthcare system is a really challenging system to navigate. It’s strained in a lot of ways, and people’s wallets are also strained because of it,” Dahl pointed out. Understanding how ER visits strain the health care system at large can also help administrators better stage ambulances and personnel ahead of extreme heat events — and invest in workforce expansion and infrastructure upgrades to prepare for the eventuality. Ideally, interventions can prevent people from end up in the hospital at all. Workplace heat protection policies, community cooling centers, and nature- and infrastructure-based cooling solutions are all vital.
There is a critical caveat to the Climate Central analysis, however: The data it uses to calculate heat-related ER visits comes from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention initiative called the National Syndromic Surveillance Program. More than 85% of U.S. emergency departments report to the NSSP within 24 hours of a patient coming through the doors, conveying the chief complaint that a patient arrives with. “That could be someone saying, ‘I think I have heat exhaustion,’ or ‘I’m super dehydrated,’” Dahl said.
But because of that human element — and because a person having a heart attack isn’t likely to come in saying, “Hey guys, I think I’m having a cardiac event exacerbated by extreme heat” — Climate Central’s analysis faces the same limitations as other excess mortality reports that rely on reporting systems not designed to measure heat impacts. (This is also why NPR recently calculated that the number of people who die from extreme heat in the U.S. each year is likely five times greater than the official CDC numbers.)
When I pressed Dahl on the question, she agreed that Climate Central’s research offers “a conservative look” that could lead to an undercount. “We also know that in parts of the country where physicians don’t typically see heat illness, they tend to be a little less likely to code a visit as heat-related,” she added.
This isn’t a knock on Climate Central’s analysis — rather, it’s frightening to think that the real rates of heat-related hospital visits, much less all visits directly attributable to climate change, are probably much higher. Researchers, of course, need to be careful not to sensationalize, especially since sloppy data and poor science communication can lead to misconceptions and underestimations about the dangers of heat among the population. But it pays to understand what is happening; a surge in ER visits is another piece of the public health puzzle. Hopefully someone is paying attention, because the planet’s hottest summer — if prevailing trends bear out — is now only 41 weeks away.
Here are the major dates on the climate and energy calendar.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
The Labor Day weekend is over, so today marks the unofficial start of fall in the United States — and my return to writing Heatmap Daily. Many thanks to Emily Pontecorvo for holding down the fort while I was on vacation.
As the seasons change (at least in a non-meteorological, non-astronomical capacity), I’ve been thinking about what the rest of the year might look like. Only 114 days separate us from the end of 2026, and between now and then, we're going to get answers about some of the country’s — and world’s — biggest ongoing climate and energy questions. By December 31, for instance, we’ll almost certainly know whether Congress has reached a deal on bipartisan permitting reform, and we’ll be watching a likely record-breaking El Niño kick into high gear around the world. The U.S. political system will also be gearing up for the next presidential election.
I’ll have more on some of the biggest questions I’m thinking about later this week, but first I wanted to lay out the map. Here’s a guide to the biggest remaining dates on the climate and energy calendar in 2026.
September 22 to September 28
Every year, world leaders descend on New York City for the UN General Assembly’s week of high-level meetings … at the same time that climate and energy wonks try to scrounge hotel rooms for New York Climate Week, the closest thing that the climate and decarbonization industrial-advocacy complex has to an annual confab.
This year, another event will be added to the mix. President Xi Jinping of China is supposedly skipping the UN meeting this year, but he will be staying just a few hundred miles away on the same exact days for what seems to be a Trump-hosted state visit in Washington, D.C. This will be the Chinese leader’s first state visit to America in more than a decade, and it will come, presumably, as U.S. relations with its neighbors and allies reach a recent nadir. Given the host country here, I wouldn’t expect to hear too much about climate change, but AI, trade, and Taiwan will all likely be on the schedule.
You can expect to hear a lot about climate change (and national energy policy, and the data center boom, and much more besides) at Heatmap House, our all-day gathering at New York Climate Week on September 23. Subscribers can register now, and speakers include former Vice President Al Gore, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, and more.
October 4, 2026
Voters in Brazil will elect the country’s president, vice president, and members of its National Congress for the first time since former President Jair Bolsonaro attempted a military coup in 2022. Bolsonaro is under house arrest for his role in the attempted autogolpe, so he can’t run; instead, his son Flávio Bolsonaro is standing. The incumbent President Lula da Silva leads in the polls. Under Lula, Brazil has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by roughly two-thirds below their all-time high by 2035.
November 3, 2026
On the first Tuesday in November, Americans will vote for the full membership of the House of Representatives as well as one-third of the Senate. Democrats are expected to retake the House — it would, at this point, be a shock if they didn’t — but the president’s polling has become so dire that they’re hoping to beat the odds and take the upper chamber, too. If Democrats succeed in winning Congress outright, expect the second half of President Trump’s term to look quite different, with liberal lawmakers running aggressive oversight campaigns in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s plan to overhaul the National Parks Service, for instance, seems like just the kind of effort that could falter in a more scrutinized environment; the Trump administration’s extrajudicial war on wind will also likely face more oversight than it has so far. Trump would also presumably have a much harder time making judicial and Executive Branch appointments.
Even though Election Day isn’t until November, early voting starts in less than a month in some states. Expect to hear a lot more about data centers and electricity bills between now and then. Some state-level races — particularly those in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — could also shape the field for the upcoming 2028 presidential election. (Whether Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia runs for president, for instance, will depend heavily on who wins that state’s governor’s race — and could appoint his successor.)
November 9 to November 20, 2026
The UN’s annual climate conference will be in Antalya, Turkey, this year and begin just a few days after the U.S. midterms. This is going to be a weird summit: Turkey is hosting the physical meeting, but Australia is nominally the “political” host. The conference is supposed to focus on clean energy, zeroing waste, and methane reduction. This will be the 31st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and it may offer a look at what a post-Trump, post-1.5 degree Celsius UN meeting could look like.
The industry has gotten excited before, to no avail. Will it stick this time?
Over a decade ago, when the global price of silicon-based photovoltaic modules was roughly five times what it is today, the solar industry and media were already hyping up the next big thing: perovskites, a class of materials defined by their specific cube-like crystal structure. The technology promised to boost photovoltaic efficiency while driving down costs, and the industry was atwitter.
“All the cool solar-cell scientists are working on perovskites photovoltaics,” IEEE Spectrum proclaimed in a 2014 article. In the same piece, Oxford Photovoltaics predicted that it would have commercially available cells within four years. The Wall Street Journal profiled the tech that same year, and in 2015, The Guardian declared that perovskites could be “game changing.” The excitement centered around the potential for higher output at lower costs: Perovskite cells were seeing rapid efficiency gains, could be made from cheap materials, and were remarkably thin and lightweight. When the question of durability came up, it was often as an afterthought. But that has turned out to be the technology’s biggest obstacle.
“What the industry came to understand very quickly is that, yes, you could see higher efficiency, but that material is going to degrade pretty quickly,” Laureen Sanderson, chief communication officer at the perovskite startup Cubic PV, told me. “A lot of the efficiency records that you were seeing were records that were achieved on very small scale devices in a laboratory environment, potentially measured in the dark.” Not ideal for a technology designed to soak up the sun on a large scale.
It’s true that perovskite cells tend to break down rapidly on contact with moisture, heat, and light, a problem scientists have been slowly chipping away at in the lab. That fragility largely arises because perovskites are made of electrically charged ions held together mostly by the attraction between positive and negative charges, much like magnets snapping together. That’s an intrinsically looser structure than the covalent bonds in silicon, which fuse the atoms together via shared electrons. As a result, the ions in perovskites migrate when exposed to the elements, accumulating in places where they react with surrounding materials to form unwanted byproducts that gradually break down the cell’s structure.
But while durability has been its fatal flaw, efficiency is perovskite’s superpower. Silicon’s efficiency tops out at 29.4%, a fundamental physics limitation that no amount of engineering can overcome. But because perovskites can be tuned to absorb different wavelengths of light beyond what silicon can capture, stacking a thin perovskite cell atop a conventional silicon cell lets the combined device make use of more sunlight than either material could alone. In July, one of these silicon-perovskite tandem cells — the industry’s dominant architecture — set a new 35.5% efficiency record.
So while this new tech still doesn’t match the stability of conventional panels, it’s getting much better. Tandem cells hold up increasingly well when exposed to heat, light, and moisture in the lab, and early outdoor trials are starting to produce promising real-world performance data. With headlines about perovskites starting to roll in once more, scientists say there’s good reason to believe that, this time around, the hype might actually be justified.
“Over the better part of a decade, there’s been lots of, for want of a better word, device engineering to engineer the material to just be much more stable,” Sam Stranks, an energy materials professor at the University of Cambridge and co-founder of perovskite startup Swift Solar, told me. That includes swapping out an unstable chemical building block in perovskites called methylammonium with a more stable one called formamidinium, improving the connection point that binds the perovskite layer to the electrode layer, and improving the packaging of perovskite cells to seal them off from air and moisture.
“There’s still work to be done to really get it to the point where you could put it up on a rooftop for 25 years and you know it will last. But the trajectory is very promising,” Stranks said.
Scientists have managed to extend perovskite durability from mere hours to the point where cells and modules are now passing industry-standard tests that suggest they could survive outdoors for five to 10 years. That’s still a ways away from the standard 25-year warranties for silicon solar panels, which typically guarantee that a module will retain 85% to 90% of its original output by year 25. And because these latest perovskites simply haven’t been around that long, scientists have yet to test these more ambitious durability claims in the real world.
Industry experts say there’s no reason continued incremental improvements can’t get perovskites to that 25-year standard relatively soon, however. “If you look at silicon, it’s been 70 years of trial and error,” Scott Wharton, CEO of perovskite startup Tandem PV, told me. “Seventy years of constant tweaking and improvement, whereas perovskites have only had about 12.”
Wharton said that Tandem’s testing indicates its panels will degrade at a rate of less than 1% per year. Furthermore, he predicts perovskites will become the dominant solar technology by 2033, a more ambitious timeline than others in the industry typically project. But as he sees it, seven years is roughly enough time to build and deploy two generations of perovskite factories — the kind of iterative ramp-up he says new technologies typically need to achieve market dominance.
The economics just make sense, he told me. Because perovskites are more efficient, they will produce more power per unit — which means less land, hardware, wiring, and labor needed to achieve the same total energy output, driving down costs at every step of the process. Why wouldn’t everyone jump onboard immediately? “All of our customers have said that once we’ve proven it out, they’re going to move,” Wharton told me. “They’re going to move 100% to tandems because of the power of the efficiency gains.”
Others are somewhat more measured regarding how long this may take. Stranks predicted it would be about five years before perovskites with multi-decade warranties even begin hitting the market, while Sanderson estimated they’ll gain real commercial traction by 2029, with perovskites making up a “significant portion of the market” throughout the 2030s.
While the date of that tipping point remains up for debate, the industry appears to have largely settled the question of materials. At least for now, the preferred configuration is to pair a lead-based perovskite cell with silicon rather than build an all-perovskite cell, which would likely face even greater durability challenges. That’s because such a cell would also need a tin-based perovskite layer to capture lower-energy light like silicon does, but tin degrades even faster than lead. In other words, it’s easier to keep silicon — a proven, durable material — in the mix by building so-called “tandem cells” for the foreseeable future.
But there’s still plenty that remains unknown. Every startup’s exact chemistry is proprietary, and there’s no clearly dominant formula yet. There’s also no industry consensus on the architecture best poised to address perovskite’s stability challenge, either, with leading players typically taking one of two different approaches.
Stranks’ Swift Solar team is pursuing what’s known as a “two-terminal” tandem architecture, in which a manufacturer builds the perovskite layer directly on top of the silicon layer, with the two cells functioning as a single unit. That’s opposed to a “four-terminal” design, where companies build two independent perovskite and silicon cells and then mechanically stack them on top of each other rather than fusing them together.
Two-terminal is the more widely studied approach, pursued by other industry leaders such as Oxford PV — the same company that once predicted commercialization by 2018 — along with Chinese solar giants LONGi and JinkoSolar. Proponents argue that using fewer material layers means less light lost, which translates into greater efficiency and lower costs. In a blog post last year, Swift Solar’s team also argued that the four-terminal designs rely on laser cutting, which it says can create more entry points for degradation.
Two-terminal isn’t just the leading theoretical contender, it’s the first architecture to officially make it to market. Oxford PV’s finally executed its long-delayed commercial launch in 2024, shipping its modules to an undisclosed U.S. customer for use in a utility-scale solar project. It was the world’s first commercial sale of perovskite panels, which Oxford claimed could produce up to 20% more energy than standard silicon modules.
But newer market entrants such as Cubic PV and Tandem PV are bullish on the four-terminal approach. For one, while two-terminal designs use fewer materials, they are more difficult to manufacture. Building a perovskite layer directly onto silicon’s rough surface is more technically difficult than coating it onto smooth glass, as Cubic and Tandem do. And because four-terminal companies manufacture the perovskite and silicon cells separately, they can swap in whatever silicon cell is cheapest or most efficient at any given moment, rather than being locked into a single supplier’s tech.
That flexibility could prove important as the market moves beyond early adopters. For now, Stranks said, customers buying tandem modules are probably doing so for strategic testing purposes — placing small, one-off orders to trial the tech themselves. An installer today can’t simply go buy perovskites on the open market by consulting a public pricing list or product catalogue the way they can with silicon panels. “But it’s not too far away before that would be the case,” he explained.
For its part, Swift is moving … swiftly, acquiring the manufacturing assets and IP of the bankrupt Swiss silicon cell maker Meyer Burger this spring. The company plans to use those assets first to build a U.S.-based gigawatt-scale silicon cell and module factory to meet demand for domestically manufactured solar cells, eventually adding silicon-perovskite tandem module production to that same facility.
Tandem PV is also pushing ahead with plans to begin selling to customers by the end of this year “in a volume that would be big enough to hit bankability goals,” Wharton told me. It also plans to bring a gigawatt-scale factory online by 2028. The company is targeting the independent power producers who build, own, and operate most utility-scale solar projects today. And like Oxford, Swift, and Cubic, Tandem is focused primarily on the utility-scale solar market — by far the biggest opportunity for perovskite technology.
Cubic scrapped plans in 2024 to build a facility producing silicon wafers — the raw material used to make solar cells — amid collapsing wafer prices globally and surging construction costs domestically. While Sanderson says the company remains interested in building its own factory, it has no timeline for doing so. But in the meantime, it’s also interested in licensing its IP to other perovskite companies.
The outlook for domestic wafer production has improved in recent years, though, after the Biden administration provided stronger financial incentives for producing wafers in the U.S. The Trump administration has kept these in place, though it’s made domestic content requirements stricter and more complex overall.
There’s also another new policy variable in the mix: Section 232 tariffs on cheap silicon wafers from China. Going into effect this December, the tariffs could benefit producers like Swift and Cubic, which plan to manufacture silicon cells domestically, while potentially raising costs for companies like Tandem that hope to simply source the cheapest, most efficient silicon available on the market.
At any rate, perovskites give the U.S. a chance to secure a domestic supply chain for the next wave of solar tech. Because while Chinese perovskite producers are setting efficiency records, Wharton told me that they tend to be quieter on the question of durability. That could easily give a Western producer with a credible, multi-decade warranty the opportunity to jump to the front of the pack.
And that may happen sooner than you’d expect. “This always follows the same pattern,” Wharton said of technology breakthroughs generally. “You have a bunch of early entrepreneurs who overhype things, and then everybody goes, Yeah, that was a bunch of BS. And then it actually gets real, and then people go, It’s real, but it’s going to take forever. But then it doesn’t take forever because economics always wins.”