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Economy

What to Expect From Solar and Battery Storage This Year

On 2024 power projects, pension funds, and the king’s car

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What to Expect From Solar and Battery Storage This Year
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Current conditions: Rush hour commutes in the Midwest could be snarled by snow today • The whole of England and Wales is under a weather warning for heavy rain and floods • February temperatures in parts of the Atlantic Ocean are nearing highs normally seen in July.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Solar and battery storage expected to set records in 2024 for new electricity generating capacity

The vast majority – 81% – of new utility-scale electricity generating capacity expected to come online this year will be in the form of solar and battery storage, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency’s latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory shows projects with 62.8 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity are in the pipeline, a 55% increase over the 40.4 GW added last year. More than half of that will be solar, and about a quarter will be battery storage. “We expect U.S. battery storage capacity to nearly double in 2024,” the report said. Electrek also noted that “2024 will see the least new natural gas capacity added in 25 years.”

EIA

2. House passes bill to reverse Biden’s LNG pause

The Republican-controlled House voted yesterday to pass a bill reversing President Biden’s pause on approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. The vote was 224-200, with nine democrats voting in favor. While the bill is unlikely to get the green light in the Senate, its passage “could embolden House Republicans to include language easing the pause in future government funding legislation,” Bloomberg said. This particular bill would end the Department of Energy’s (DoE) power to approve exports, handing it instead to the independent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Biden paused approval of new export terminals recently until the DoE can study their environmental impact, earning praise from activists who claim LNG may be worse for the climate than coal, but scorn from many Republicans who say the move compromises energy security.

3. Major climate investor group loses key asset managers

The world’s largest group aimed at leveraging investor power to pressure corporations to prioritize climate change lost some of its biggest members this week. JPMorgan Asset Management and State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) said yesterday they are leaving the Climate Action 100+ (CA100) group, and BlackRock Inc. said it will no longer be affiliated. CA100 partners with more than 700 investors – which collectively manage about $70 trillion in assets – to pressure oil giants, shipping firms, airlines, and other big companies “that are critical to the net-zero emissions transition.” It initially focused on encouraging companies to make climate disclosures but recently decided to go further and start pushing them to actively reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It seems this was a step too far. The departures remove nearly $14 trillion in assets from the climate group, and follow intense political pressure from Republicans targeting ESG investing. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more defections,” Lance Dial, a Boston-based partner at law firm K&L Gates LLP, told Bloomberg.

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4. New York state pension fund divests from fossil fuel firms

In more news from the financial world, America’s third-largest state pension fund is scaling back its investment in some oil and gas companies. The New York State Common Retirement Fund, which holds about $260 billion in assets, will divest about $27 million from seven firms including Exxon Mobil Corp. following a review of the companies’ preparedness to shift to a low-carbon economy. The move is “a compromise measure” between the fund and environmentalists who want to see full divestment, Reuters said. “The decision could deal another blow to Exxon’s reputation,” reported Inside Climate News, but the fund will still maintain $500 million worth of Exxon shares.

5. U.N. might create expert group to study solar geoengineering

Switzerland wants the United Nations to create a group of experts dedicated to studying solar geoengineering, according to Climate Home News. The panel would “examine risks and opportunities” of solar radiation management (SRM) techniques, which are “hypothetical technologies that could, in theory, counteract temperature rise by reflecting more sunlight away from the Earth’s surface,” as Carbon Brief explained. Reactions from scientists are mixed, with some suggesting more research is warranted, but others concerned about “the risks of opening a Pandora’s box.” Governments will vote on the proposal next week.

THE KICKER

The Royal Family’s first-ever electric vehicle, King Charles III’s 2018 Jaguar I-Pace, is up for auction and could go for up to $88,000. The king once called the car “silent but deadly.”

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
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This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
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THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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