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On 2024 power projects, pension funds, and the king’s car
Current conditions: Rush hour commutes in the Midwest could be snarled by snow today • The whole of England and Wales is under a weather warning for heavy rain and floods • February temperatures in parts of the Atlantic Ocean are nearing highs normally seen in July.
The vast majority – 81% – of new utility-scale electricity generating capacity expected to come online this year will be in the form of solar and battery storage, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency’s latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory shows projects with 62.8 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity are in the pipeline, a 55% increase over the 40.4 GW added last year. More than half of that will be solar, and about a quarter will be battery storage. “We expect U.S. battery storage capacity to nearly double in 2024,” the report said. Electrek also noted that “2024 will see the least new natural gas capacity added in 25 years.”
The Republican-controlled House voted yesterday to pass a bill reversing President Biden’s pause on approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. The vote was 224-200, with nine democrats voting in favor. While the bill is unlikely to get the green light in the Senate, its passage “could embolden House Republicans to include language easing the pause in future government funding legislation,” Bloombergsaid. This particular bill would end the Department of Energy’s (DoE) power to approve exports, handing it instead to the independent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Biden paused approval of new export terminals recently until the DoE can study their environmental impact, earning praise from activists who claim LNG may be worse for the climate than coal, but scorn from many Republicans who say the move compromises energy security.
The world’s largest group aimed at leveraging investor power to pressure corporations to prioritize climate change lost some of its biggest members this week. JPMorgan Asset Management and State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) said yesterday they are leaving the Climate Action 100+ (CA100) group, and BlackRock Inc. said it will no longer be affiliated. CA100 partners with more than 700 investors – which collectively manage about $70 trillion in assets – to pressure oil giants, shipping firms, airlines, and other big companies “that are critical to the net-zero emissions transition.” It initially focused on encouraging companies to make climate disclosures but recently decided to go further and start pushing them to actively reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It seems this was a step too far. The departures remove nearly $14 trillion in assets from the climate group, and follow intense political pressure from Republicans targeting ESG investing. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more defections,” Lance Dial, a Boston-based partner at law firm K&L Gates LLP, toldBloomberg.
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In more news from the financial world, America’s third-largest state pension fund is scaling back its investment in some oil and gas companies. The New York State Common Retirement Fund, which holds about $260 billion in assets, will divest about $27 million from seven firms including Exxon Mobil Corp. following a review of the companies’ preparedness to shift to a low-carbon economy. The move is “a compromise measure” between the fund and environmentalists who want to see full divestment, Reuterssaid. “The decision could deal another blow to Exxon’s reputation,” reportedInside Climate News, but the fund will still maintain $500 million worth of Exxon shares.
Switzerland wants the United Nations to create a group of experts dedicated to studying solar geoengineering, according toClimate Home News. The panel would “examine risks and opportunities” of solar radiation management (SRM) techniques, which are “hypothetical technologies that could, in theory, counteract temperature rise by reflecting more sunlight away from the Earth’s surface,” as Carbon Briefexplained. Reactions from scientists are mixed, with some suggesting more research is warranted, but others concerned about “the risks of opening a Pandora’s box.” Governments will vote on the proposal next week.
The Royal Family’s first-ever electric vehicle, King Charles III’s 2018 Jaguar I-Pace, is up for auction and could go for up to $88,000. The king once called the car “silent but deadly.”
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Almost half of developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
The solar energy industry has a big farm problem cropping up. And if it isn’t careful, it’ll be dealing with it for years to come.
Researchers at SI2, an independent research arm of the Solar Energy Industries Association, released a study of farm workers and solar developers this morning that said almost half of all developers believe it is “somewhat or significantly harder to do” projects on farmland, despite the clear advantages that kind of property has for harnessing solar power.
Unveiled in conjunction with RE+, the largest renewable energy conference in the U.S., the federally-funded research includes a warning sign that permitting is far and away the single largest impediment for solar developers trying to build projects on farmland. If this trend continues or metastasizes into a national movement, it could indefinitely lock developers out from some of the nation’s best land for generating carbon-free electricity.
“If a significant minority opposes and perhaps leads to additional moratoria, [developers] will lose a foot in the door for any future projects,” Shawn Rumery, SI2’s senior program director and the survey lead, told me. “They may not have access to that community any more because that moratoria is in place.”
SI2’s research comes on the heels of similar findings from Heatmap Pro. A poll conducted for the platform last month found 70% of respondents who had more than 50 acres of property — i.e. the kinds of large landowners sought after by energy developers — are concerned that renewable energy “takes up farmland,” by far the greatest objection among that cohort.
Good farmland is theoretically perfect for building solar farms. What could be better for powering homes than the same strong sunlight that helps grow fields of yummy corn, beans and vegetables? And there’s a clear financial incentive for farmers to get in on the solar industry, not just because of the potential cash in letting developers use their acres but also the longer-term risks climate change and extreme weather can pose to agriculture writ large.
But not all farmers are warming up to solar power, leading towns and counties across the country to enact moratoria restricting or banning solar and wind development on and near “prime farmland.” Meanwhile at the federal level, Republicans and Democrats alike are voicing concern about taking farmland for crop production to generate renewable energy.
Seeking to best understand this phenomena, SI2 put out a call out for ag industry representatives and solar developers to tell them how they feel about these two industries co-mingling. They received 355 responses of varying detail over roughly three months earlier this year, including 163 responses from agriculture workers, 170 from solar developers as well as almost two dozen individuals in the utility sector.
A key hurdle to development, per the survey, is local opposition in farm communities. SI2’s publicity announcement for the research focuses on a hopeful statistic: up to 70% of farmers surveyed said they were “open to large-scale solar.” But for many, that was only under certain conditions that allow for dual usage of the land or agrivoltaics. In other words, they’d want to be able to keep raising livestock, a practice known as solar grazing, or planting crops unimpeded by the solar panels.
The remaining percentage of farmers surveyed “consistently opposed large-scale solar under any condition,” the survey found.
“Some of the messages we got were over my dead body,” Rumery said.
Meanwhile a “non-trivial” number of solar developers reported being unwilling or disinterested in adopting the solar-ag overlap that farmers want due to the increased cost, Rumery said. While some companies expect large portions of their business to be on farmland in the future, and many who responded to the survey expect to use agrivoltaic designs, Rumery voiced concern at the percentage of companies unwilling to integrate simultaneous agrarian activities into their planning.
In fact, Rumery said some developers’ reticence is part of what drove him and his colleagues to release the survey while at RE+.
As we discussed last week, failing to address the concerns of local communities can lead to unintended consequences with industry-wide ramifications. Rumery said developers trying to build on farmland should consider adopting dual-use strategies and focus on community engagement and education to avoid triggering future moratoria.
“One of the open-ended responses that best encapsulated the problem was a developer who said until the cost of permitting is so high that it forces us to do this, we’re going to continue to develop projects as they are,” he said. “That’s a cold way to look at it.”
Meanwhile, who is driving opposition to solar and other projects on farmland? Are many small farm owners in rural communities really against renewables? Is the fossil fuel lobby colluding with Big Ag? Could building these projects on fertile soil really impede future prospects at crop yields?
These are big questions we’ll be tackling in far more depth in next week’s edition of The Fight. Trust me, the answers will surprise you.
Here are the most notable renewable energy conflicts over the past week.
1. Worcester County, Maryland –Ocean City is preparing to go to court “if necessary” to undo the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s approval last week of U.S. Wind’s Maryland Offshore Wind Project, town mayor Rick Meehan told me in a statement this week.
2. Magic Valley, Idaho – The Lava Ridge Wind Project would be Idaho’s biggest wind farm. But it’s facing public outcry over the impacts it could have on a historic site for remembering the impact of World War II on Japanese residents in the United States.
3. Kossuth County, Iowa – Iowa’s largest county – Kossuth – is in the process of approving a nine-month moratorium on large-scale solar development.
Here’s a few more hotspots I’m watching…
The most important renewable energy policies and decisions from the last few days.
Greenlink’s good day – The Interior Department has approved NV Energy’s Greenlink West power line in Nevada, a massive step forward for the Biden administration’s pursuit of more transmission.
States’ offshore muddle – We saw a lot of state-level offshore wind movement this past week… and it wasn’t entirely positive. All of this bodes poorly for odds of a kumbaya political moment to the industry’s benefit any time soon.
Chumash loophole – Offshore wind did notch one win in northern California by securing an industry exception in a large marine sanctuary, providing for farms to be built in a corridor of the coastline.
Here’s what else I’m watching …