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This was the year of the fire sale. With the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expiring at the end of September, buyers raced to get good deals on EVs and made sales numbers shoot up. Then, predictably, sales fell off a cliff at the end of the year, when those offers-you-can’t-refuse disappeared.
Now that a new year has arrived, the word might be “uncertain.” Tariffs and the loss of federal incentives have tossed a heavy dose of chaos into the EV industry, causing many automakers to reconsider their plans for what electric cars they’re going to build and where they’re going to make them. And yet, at the same time, some of the most anticipated new electric models we’ve seen in years are supposed to be coming to America next year. Here’s what to know.
Just as changes in federal policy threaten to make electric cars more expensive — at a moment when Americans are clearly tiring of out-of-control car prices — here comes a new batch of long-overdue affordable EVs. Among the most important is the Chevy Bolt, a fan favorite from the previous generation of electric vehicles that ended its first run in 2023. With the basic version starting at $29,000 for a car with 250-plus miles of range, the little Chevy might inspire a new legion of fans — perhaps one large enough to convince General Motors to extend what they’re calling a limited Bolt resurrection into a car that’s on sale for good.
The Nissan Leaf, another name from a bygone era, is also coming back to the States. The Leaf, you may recall, was arguably the car that started this electric era, hitting the market ahead of the much-more-beloved Tesla Model S. The second version of the Leaf that came out in the mid-2010s was a pretty darn good hatchback, but one that lasted too long without an update and paled in comparison to the better models that came along this decade. Nissan as a company has been adrift the past several years, but it built a winner in the new Leaf 3.0, an attractive small crossover set to arrive in 2026.
Next year also should see heel-draggers Toyota and Subaru finally coming to market with winning EVs. The uninspired Toyota bZ4x/Subaru Solterra, which the two Japanese brands developed together, had been their only pure EVs. In 2026, however, Subaru is set to launch the Outback EV and Toyota the electrified version of the C-HR small crossover, putting all-electric power into some of their well-known gasoline nameplates.
Battery-powered adventure vehicles make up some of the most exciting EVs for 2026. Perhaps the most-anticipated arrival is the Rivian R2, poised to be not only the model that brings that brand to the masses, with its $45,000 starting price, but also serve as the launchpad for Rivan’s aspirations in autonomous driving and AI. It’ll face new competition in the form of the Jeep Recon, that iconic brand’s first all-electric SUV, and of the Range Rover Electric, which seeks to win back some of the drivers who ditched their Range Rovers for the Rivian R1.
The electric pickup market, by comparison, has gone cold. Rivian, which launched its all-electric company with a pickup trick, isn’t planning a truck version for the smaller R2 platform. Ford, amidst yet another upheaval in its EV plans, is killing the all-electric version of the F-150 Lightning and plans to produce a 700-mile extended range hybrid in its place (though it says plans for the mid-sized EV truck due in 2027 will go on).
The great truck hope for EVs in 2026 is the much-awaited launch of Slate, the truly compact electric truck backed by Jeff Bezos, among others. Slate’s pitch is affordability via personalization: The bare-bones, doesn’t-even-have-power-windows version is supposed to start in the mid-$20,000s, on par with the cheapest new gasoline cars you can buy in America. Buyers can spend as much as they want to add bells and whistles.
Of the new high-end EVs coming to America, the most compelling may be the BMW i3. The last car to bear that name was the little urban future cube the German automaker sold in decent numbers back in the 2010s, despite that older vehicle having just 150 miles of range. The new i3 is a fully realized electrified version of the best-selling BMW 3 Series, one of the icons of the auto industry.
Despite the arrival of new and affordable EVs, the industry still has a big affordability problem. Too many electric cars are still too expensive and not competitive price-wise with their gasoline counterparts. Meanwhile, Americans are getting fed up with out-of-control car prices.
A consequence of this, industry insiders say, could be that 2026 is the year of the used EV. Tons of electric cars that were leased under very favorable terms during the Biden years will be coming back to dealerships as those leases end, ready to become very affordable used cars. With batteries having markedly improved since the 2010s, those three-year-old electric cars should have decent driving ranges to go with their low sticker prices.
The other big question mark is the promise of the autonomous age. Tesla, still the EV market leader in America, hasn’t offered an entirely new one since the disastrous launch of the Cybertruck. This year, though, Elon Musk says he will start building Cybercab, the supposedly fully autonomous car that will never be driven by its human occupants. Maybe it will upend the entire automotive industry as drivers say goodbye to the act of driving. Or maybe, like most Tesla endeavors, it will come in behind schedule and not work quite as well as Musk promises.
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We knew the revived Chevrolet Bolt might have a limited run. Nobody knew it would be this limited.
General Motors began manufacturing the updated version of its small electric car late last year to begin deliveries this month. Already the news of its potential demise is here. GM says the Kansas factory that’s churning out Bolts will be repurposed to make combustion cars, including a Buick, of all things. Now, just as the arrival of the sub-$30,000 Bolt heralded a new age of more affordable electric cars, Chevy is dropping out of the race and putting its beloved little electric car on the backburner. Again.
The culprits in this case are clear. With the federal tax credit for buying EVs dead and gone, and with weakened emissions rules removing the incentive for car companies to pursue an aggressive electrification strategy, automakers are running back to the familiar embrace of fossil fuels. GM has already said it expects to lose billions as it adjusts its business strategy, curbing its EV push to meet the new reality under President Trump, where gas-burning cars remain much more profitable to build and sell.
The Bolt’s fate is the immediate fallout from that move. The Buick Envision, part of America’s army of indistinguishable gas-powered crossovers, had been built at a GM plant in China. Trump’s tariffs, however, incentivized the company to move production back to the U.S. The fact that GM repatriated the Envision at the expense of the Bolt tells you what you need to know about this moment in the U.S. auto market.
GM never promised that the Bolt would be back for good, and its return to limbo is par for the course when it comes to this plucky little car. The original Bolt EV had its problems, including a battery recall and glacial charging speeds by today’s standards. But the Bolt established GM’s place in the new EV age and found a flock of fans. At the time it was discontinued in 2023, it was the top-selling non-Tesla EV in America, selling more than 60,000 cars that year.
Fans clamored to get the car back. GM listened, and built a new version on the Ultium platform that forms the basis of its current generation of EVs. When I attended Chevy’s big reveal party for the new Bolt last year, it handed out merch reading “back by popular demand.” Yet GM always referred to the vehicle’s revival as a special run, as if not to get anyone’s hopes up that the Bolt would become a mainstay in the Chevy lineup.
Things could have been different, of course. GM has hinted at the possibility of expanding upon the Bolt with more models if the car succeeded in helping the company win the affordable EV race. Instead, the Kansas factory will turn back to combustion next year as Chevy builds some gas-powered Equinox SUVs there, moving production from Mexico after getting hammered by new tariffs. The Buick Envision, which GM has been making in China for nearly a decade, will begin Kansas production in 2028.
The Bolt’s second sudden death is a big blow to American EV lovers. Without a $7,500 tax break for buying an electric vehicle, Americans badly need more affordable options. Bolt, which starts around $29,000 in its most basic form, was set to lead a pack that would include other 2026 arrivals such as the customizable, Jeff Bezos-backed Slate truck and the reimagined third-generation Nissan Leaf. Now, you’d better act fast if you want to get behind the wheel of a Bolt.
Practically every week brings a flood of climate tech funding news and announcements — startups raising a new round, a venture capital firm closing a fresh fund, and big projects hitting (and missing) milestones. Going forward, I’ll close out each week with a roundup of some of the biggest stories that I didn’t get a chance to cover in full.
This week, we’ve got money for electric ships, next-gen geothermal, and residential electrification in Europe. Yay!
Many say battery-powered cargo ships will never make sense — that batteries are too heavy, too bulky, and would take up too much valuable space. FleetZero says it can make it work. Last Friday, the electric shipping startup raised a $43 million Series A round led by Obvious Ventures, with participation from other firms including Maersk Growth, the shipping giant’s corporate venture arm, and Breakthrough Energy Ventures. The funding will support production of the company’s hybrid and electric propulsion systems, as well as new manufacturing and R&D operations in Houston.
Ships’ bunker fuel is extremely polluting. It accounts for roughly 3% of global CO2 emissions and dirties the air with other pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides. Most players in the shipping decarbonization space want to shift to liquid fuels such as e-ammonia or e-methanol — a move that would require mulit-million-dollar engine overhauls and retrofits. FleetZero says that battery electrification will prove to be cheaper and simpler. The company is building batteries large enough to hybridize — and potentially one day fully electrify — large container ships.
As FleetZero’s CEO and co-founder Steven Henderson told my colleague Robinson Meyer on a 2024 episode of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast, batteries are a relatively simple maritime decarbonization solution because “you can use existing infrastructure and build on it. You don’t need a new fundamental technology to do this.” And while the company has yet to provide any cost estimates for electrifying commercial shipping, as Henderson put it, “the numbers to do this are not outside the realm of possibility.”
The next-generation geothermal startup Sage Geosystems announced on Wednesday that it raised a $97 million Series B round, co-led by the renewable energy company Ormat Technologies and the growth equity firm Carbon Direct Capital. This came atop a hot week for geothermal overall. As I wrote already, the artificial intelligence-powered geothermal developer Zanskar announced a $115 million Series C round for its pursuit of AI-driven conventional geothermal, while Axios reported that the geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy has filed for an IPO.
Like Fervo, Sage uses drilling technology adapted from the oil and gas industry to create its own artificial reservoirs in hot, dry rock. The startup then pumps these fractures full of water, where it absorbs heat from the surrounding rocks before being brought to the surface as steam that’s used to generate electricity. Sage’s CEO, Cindy Taff — a former Shell executive — told Bloomberg that this latest investment will accelerate the company’s project timeline by a full year or two, allowing the company to put power on Nevada’s grid sometime in 2027.
This latest funding follows Sage’s strategic partnership with Ormat, announced last year, and could help the startup make good on its agreement with Meta to deliver up to 150 megawatts of clean electricity for the tech giant’s data centers starting in 2027.
Berlin-based startup Cloover — which helps Europeans finance home electrification upgrades — announced a $22 million Series A round on Wednesday, alongside a $1.2 billion debt facility from an unnamed “leading European bank” that it can draw on. The company, which describes itself as both the “operating system for energy independence” and the “Shopify of Energy,” aims to help homeowners ditch fossil fuels by facilitating loans to cover the upfront cost of, say, buying and installing heat pumps, rooftop solar, or home batteries — something traditional banks struggle to finance.
Cloover’s a fintech platform allows home energy installers to manage complex projects while offering loans for green upgrades to customers at the point of sale. The software’s AI-driven credit underwriting evaluates not just a customer’s credit score, but also the projected energy savings and performance of the upgrade itself, helping align the price and terms of borrowing with the anticipated economic value of the asset.
Forbes reports that Cloover has already financed roughly 2,500 home energy installations. The company says it’s profitable, generating nearly $100 million in sales last year. With this new funding, the startup plans to expand across Europe and is projecting $500 million in sales this year, anticipating an explosion in demand for distributed energy resources.
One of the oldest players in the race to commercialize fusion energy, General Fusion, has been candid about its recent funding struggles, laying off 25% of its staff last spring while publicly pleading for more cash. This Thursday, it announced a lifeline: a SPAC merger that will provide the company with up to $335 million, if all goes according to plan. Read more about the deal in our Heatmap AM newsletter.
Current conditions: The monster snow storm headed eastward could dump more than a foot of snow on New York City this weekend • An extreme heat wave in Australia is driving temperatures past 104 degrees Fahrenheit • In northwest India, Jammu and Kashmir are bracing for up to 8 inches of snow.
Last month, Fervo Energy raised another $462 million in a Series E round to finance construction of the next-generation geothermal startup’s first major power plant. Pretty soon, retail investors will be able to get in on the hype. On Thursday, Axios reported that the company had filed confidential papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission in preparation for an initial public offering. Fervo’s IPO will be a milestone for the geothermal industry. For years, the business of tapping the Earth’s molten heat for energy has remained relatively small, geographically isolated, and dominated by incumbent players such as Ormat Technologies. But Fervo set off a startup boom when it demonstrated that it could use fracking technology to access hot rocks in places that don’t have the underground reservoirs that conventional geothermal companies rely upon. In yesterday’s newsletter, I told you about how Zanskar, a startup using artificial intelligence to find more conventional resources, and Sage Geosystems, a rival next-generation company to Fervo, had raised a combined $212 million. But as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote in December when Fervo raised its most recent financing round, it’s not yet clear whether the company’s “enhanced” geothermal approach is price competitive. With how quickly things are progressing, we will soon find out.
Fervo isn’t the only big IPO news. General Fusion, the Canadian fusion energy startup TechCrunch describes as “struggling,” announced plans for a $1 billion reverse merger deal to go public on the Nasdaq. The move comes almost exactly a month after President Donald Trump’s social media company, the parent firm of Truth Social, inked a deal to merge with the fusion startup TAE Technologies and create the first publicly-traded fusion company in the U.S. Analysts I spoke to about the deal called it “flabberghasting,” and warned that TAE’s technology represented a more complex and dubious approach to commercializing fusion than that taken by rival companies such as Commonwealth Fusion Systems. Still, the IPO deals highlight the growing excitement over progress on generating power from a technology long mocked as the energy source of tomorrow that always will be. As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham artfully put it in 2024, “it is finally, possibly, almost time for fusion.”
General Motors plans to move manufacturing of the next generation of its Buick Envision SUV from China to the U.S. in two years and end production of the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt. The Detroit auto giant makes just one of its four SUV models in the U.S., leaving the cars vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs. The worst hit was the Envision, which is currently built in China. Starting in 2028, the latest version of the Envision will be produced in Kansas, taking over the assembly line that is currently churning out the Bolt.
It's a blow to GM's electric vehicle line. Chevy just brought back the Bolt in response to high demand after initially canceling production in 2023, because as Andrew Moseman put it in Heatmap, it's “the cheap EV we've needed all along.” While Chevy had always framed the return as a limited run, it was not previously clear how limited that would be.
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The Department of Energy said Thursday its newly rebranded Office of Energy Dominance Finance, formerly the Loan Programs Office, is “restructuring, revising, or eliminating more than $83 billion in Green New Scam loans and conditional commitments.” The move comes after “an exhaustive first-year review” of the $104 billion in principal loan obligations the Biden administration shelled out, including $85 billion the Trump administration accused of being “rushed out the door in the final months after Election Day.” In a statement, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said the changes are meant to “ensure the responsible investment of taxpayer dollars.” While it’s not yet clear which projects are affected, the agency said the EDF eliminated about $9.5 billion in support for wind and solar projects and redirected that funding to natural gas and nuclear energy. But as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo noted last night, the Energy Department hasn’t yet said which loans are set to be canceled as part of the latest cuts. The announcement may include loans that have already been canceled or restructured.
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If you know anything about surging electricity demand, you’re likely to finger a single culprit: data centers. But worldwide, air conditioning dwarfs data centers as a demand driver. And in California, electric vehicles are on pace to edge out data centers as a bigger driver of peak demand on the grid. That’s according to a new report from the California Energy Commission. Just look at this chart:

As the Golden State tries to get a grip on its electricity system, Representative Ro Khanna, the progressive Silicon Valley congressman often discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, has doubled down on his calls to break up the state’s largest utility. On Thursday, Khanna posted on X that PG&E “should be broken up and owned by customers, not shareholders. They are ripping off Californians by buying off politicians in Sacramento.” The Democrat has been calling for PG&E’s demise since at least 2019, when the utility was on the hook for billions of dollars in damages from a wildfire sparked by its equipment. But the idea hasn’t exactly caught on.
New energy technologies such as batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines are driving demand for minerals and spurring a controversial push for new mines on virgin lands. But a new study by researchers at the University of Queensland’s Sustainable Minerals Institute found that a production boom is already underway at existing mines. The peer-reviewed paper, which is the first comprehensive global analysis of brownfield mining expansion, found that existing mines are growing in size and scale. Just because the mines are already there doesn’t mean the new production doesn’t come with some social cost. Nearly 78% of the 366 mines analyzed in the study “are located in areas facing multiple high-risk socioeconomic conditions, including weak governance, poor corruption control, and limited press freedom,” the study found.
The Department of the Interior has a new coal mascot. On Thursday, the agency posted an animated picture of a cartoonish, rosy-cheeked, chicken nugget-shaped lump of coal clad in a yellow hardhat and construction gear. His name? Coalie. The idea isn’t original. Australia’s coal-mining trade group rolled out an almost identical mascot a few years ago — same anthropomorphic lump of coal, same yellow attire. The only difference? His name was Hector, and he wore glasses.